FanPost

Starting Pitching World Rankings - Short Version

An Ace. One of the terms in baseball that has any number of definitions. Depending on who you talk to an Ace could be a team's best pitcher, or it could be one of the best 30 pitchers in baseball. An Ace could even be described as something that only a handful of pitchers achieve in any given decade too. An Ace is a Hall of Famer, right? Maybe it is the other way around. A Hall of Fame pitcher is clearly an Ace?

An Ace. This term can cause a fury of anger depending on the pitcher you are talking about and the region you live in. Does stuff describe an Ace? Do results determine who should be and who shouldn't be called one? Or, is it something intangible that someone possesses that puts them over the top in the debate.

When it comes to the description of a really great pitcher the word Ace gets thrown out there a lot; probably too much. You may hear, "Pitcher X has Ace stuff" or "Pitcher X has the make-up to become an Ace". To back up these claims though people are looking for stats so it is clearly more than velocity, command, tilt, the size of the guy, his demeanor, the way he intimidates hitters, keeps them off balance, etc. These qualities contribute towards a pitcher becoming an Ace but they can't stand by themselves as its definition.

A single stat can't alone describe an Ace either but a combination may come closer. So what stats should we use? Do we take ballpark effects, team defensive ranks, opposition offensive ranks or weather variables in effect? Do we penalize National League pitchers for pitching against a lineup with a pitcher in it? In fact all of these things have to be considered to be most accurate.

The formula is the most important part of this whole thing though, isn't it? Without going in to too many details my basic strategy is this:

2 sets of stats - last year's & the last 4 years

This will give me the ability to emphasize last year's stats while still giving credence to what a pitcher has done over a longer period of time. I decided on 4 years arbitrarily. To me it is a reasonably close enough time to be relevant, a long enough time to show a relatively decent track record and allows last year's stats to indicate an outlier without overriding the year entirely.

Within each set of stats are:

BB/9 —Base on balls divided by 9 (Bases on balls per 9 innings pitched)

BF —Total batters faced: opponent team's total plate appearances

CG —Complete game: number of games where player was the only pitcher for his team

DICE —Defense-Independent Component ERA: an estimate of a pitcher's ERA based upon the defense-independent components of his statistical line (K, HR, BB, and HBP)

ERA+ —Adjusted ERA+: earned run average adjusted for the ballpark and the league average

G/F —Ground ball fly ball ratio: ground balls allowed divided by fly balls allowed

IP/GS —Average number of innings pitched per game in which he started

K/9 —Strikeouts per nine innings: strikeouts times nine divided by innings pitched (Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched)

W —Win: number of games where pitcher was pitching while his team took the lead and went on to win, also the starter needs to pitch at least 5 innings of work

In the formula are nine pitching stats, some of which are related to each other. Each of these stats is then reduced to a ratio. The best individual stat within itself becomes the baseline with other stats become some ratio below the baseline. For example James Shields lead baseball in CG's last year... after I get the number for Shields for CG's, this number is divided by the baseline number. In this example the number it is dividing by itself because it was the best for that category. James Shields would get a 1 for CG's-2011. The rest of baseball would get a ratio below that number. In this example standard deviation would have to enter into effect as to not overemphasize the value of a CG.

The emphasis on a particular stat is then calculated by multiplying weight onto it. The reason for this is Wins, to me anyway, is not as important as K/9, BB/9 or any of the other stats for that matter. But, it does have some importance. Also, there is weight given to the stats from 2011 and the stats from 2008-2010.

Some pitchers had to get eliminated due starts and inning minimums. Who else isn't on this list? Prospects. Until they have a minimum of 25 MLB starts they aren't on this list - and 10 of them had to be made last year. This is going to include a guy like Matt Moore. Also, guys who didn't pitch last year due to injury won't be here. An example of this would be Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, Johan Santana, and Rich Harden. Take off Brett Myers who is a closer now & Daniel Bard who is a starter now but doesn't have any starts to qualify and you start to get the complete list. There may be other exceptions/omissions as well but if you don't see a pitcher on the list there is probably a reason why.

Once weight is calculated there are 18 columns of stats. These are added together and sorted... the results? The top 153 qualified pitchers in baseball. Some of these pitchers will probably jump up into the top echelon soon enough (See Clay Buchholz, Zach Britton & Brett Anderson) while others are appropriately positioned. Another aspect of this is as the season goes during 2012 I can update stats and make these rankings real time.

Now to the list.

The way the scoring system broke each player down and ranked them, there ended up being groups of players that at this point are basically interchangeable. The first 3 pitchers on this list scored above and beyond the rest. These 3 represent the 3 Hall of Fame level pitchers. Debate the order if you wish but these 3 are in a level all to themselves. The Rating score puts the top pitcher (in this case Halladay) and makes him the baseline (1.000) with the other pitchers falling a percentage below him. The score is my mathematical model's evaluation of them, accumulating points on each of the 18 columns of statistics.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

1

Roy Halladay

1.00

147.77

2

Cliff Lee

0.94

139.25

3

Justin Verlander

0.92

136.49

The next group of pitchers I would describe as Aces. Shields could have gone in this group or the next as there was a pretty big drop-off before and after him but after last year, the complete games, pitching in the A.L. East & an overall dominant year I put him in this group. Stephen Strasburg ended up in this group before I put the GS limitations on here too. He was a tough one to omit. Soon enough for him though, right?

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

4

CC Sabathia

0.89

131.19

5

Dan Haren

0.89

131.12

6

Clayton Kershaw

0.87

129.22

7

Félix Hernández

0.86

127.46

8

Jered Weaver

0.86

127.34

9

Tim Lincecum

0.86

126.41

10

James Shields

0.84

123.56

This next group of pitchers is still under the category of an Ace in my book, but is statistically showing a slight drop-off from the top 10. An interesting pitcher in this list is Doug Fister. Fister really proved his worth to the Tigers down the stretch last year. When you talk about "tilt" Fister is a great example and his numbers are being driven exclusively by his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Pitching in Detroit can't hurt him in this department moving forward.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

11

Matt Cain

0.81

120.18

12

Zack Greinke

0.81

119.95

13

Cole Hamels

0.81

119.93

14

Jon Lester

0.81

119.21

15

C.J. Wilson

0.80

118.34

16

Doug Fister

0.80

117.71

17

Josh Beckett

0.79

117.45

18

Chris Carpenter

0.78

115.88

19

David Price

0.78

115.14

As we get into the next group of pitchers you will notice the first Twin on the list. Surprisingly, Scott Baker is solidly cemented into the top 30. His K/BB ratio and overall balance gets him here. If he can stay healthy the Twins have a solid #1 moving forward. The general feeling I get from this group of pitchers is these are #2's. They may be the best pitcher on their respective team but, if they are, you aren't too excited about it.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

20

Ervin Santana

0.76

112.52

21

Ubaldo Jiménez

0.76

112.27

22

Matt Garza

0.75

111.53

23

Ricky Romero

0.75

111.52

24

Scott Baker

0.75

110.31

25

Gavin Floyd

0.75

110.19

26

Justin Masterson

0.74

109.97

27

Javier Vázquez

0.74

109.19

28

Brandon McCarthy

0.73

108.54

29

Gio González

0.73

108.42

The next group of pitchers is a mixture of #2's and #3's. A guy like Ian Kennedy had one of the best pitching years ever last year but did nothing before that in his career. Michael Pineda was brilliant in his rookie season and can easily move up the list moving forward if he can pitch in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. Some solid veterans make up this group as well including Buehrle, Lilly, Oswalt & Pavano.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

30

Madison Bumgarner

0.73

107.99

31

Hiroki Kuroda

0.73

107.82

32

Mark Buehrle

0.73

107.50

33

John Danks

0.73

107.42

34

Yovani Gallardo

0.73

107.38

35

Ian Kennedy

0.72

106.80

36

Michael Pineda

0.72

106.73

37

Chad Billingsley

0.72

106.37

38

Ted Lilly

0.72

106.12

39

Brandon Morrow

0.72

105.92

40

Johnny Cueto

0.72

105.84

41

Mat Latos

0.72

105.80

42

Daniel Hudson

0.71

105.57

43

Alexi Ogando

0.71

105.40

44

Roy Oswalt

0.71

105.32

45

Carl Pavano

0.71

105.32

46

Ricky Nolasco

0.71

105.04

47

Tim Hudson

0.71

104.36

48

Max Scherzer

0.71

104.24

49

Wandy Rodríguez

0.70

104.08

50

Jake Peavy

0.70

104.02

51

Ryan Dempster

0.70

103.90

52

Edwin Jackson

0.70

103.48

53

Colby Lewis

0.69

102.63

54

Josh Tomlin

0.69

102.04

55

Jair Jurrjens

0.69

101.93

Now that we get past #55 on the list we start to get into the #3's. Francisco Liriano is in this group. Around here we think very highly of his stuff. We have flashbacks to 2006 with him and Johan slicing through hitters like a Hattori Hanzo sword through just about anything. This was going to best 1-2 punch in the game for years. Of course, as we know, Johan was traded and Liriano had Tommy John surgery. Since then his value has been hotly debated. My ranking system has him at #70. The biggest detriment to Frankie is simply his inability to command his stuff. His walk rate was an abysmal 5.03 per 9 last year. He simply has to do better.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

56

Erik Bedard

0.68

101.07

57

Jeremy Guthrie

0.68

100.70

58

Randy Wolf

0.68

100.57

59

Jaime García

0.68

100.55

60

Jeremy Hellickson

0.68

100.36

61

Shaun Marcum

0.67

99.66

62

Derek Lowe

0.67

99.59

63

Tommy Hanson

0.67

99.05

64

Jordan Zimmermann

0.67

98.88

65

Jeff Niemann

0.67

98.72

66

Brandon Beachy

0.67

98.64

67

Trevor Cahill

0.67

98.63

68

A.J. Burnett

0.67

98.44

69

Kyle Lohse

0.67

98.37

70

Francisco Liriano

0.67

98.31

Numbers 71-82 have a couple of former Twins in Phil Humber and RA Dickey. RA has been dazzling at times since moving back to the National League and Humber put together a nice little year of his own in 2011. No one on this list screams "Give him the ball!", except maybe Derek Holland and his brilliance in the post-season last year.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

71

R.A. Dickey

0.66

97.47

72

Jason Vargas

0.66

97.25

73

Paul Maholm

0.66

97.07

74

Joe Saunders

0.66

97.01

75

Derek Holland

0.66

96.87

76

Jorge De La Rosa

0.65

96.56

77

John Lackey

0.65

96.46

78

Jhoulys Chacin

0.65

96.27

79

Philip Humber

0.65

96.16

80

Matt Harrison

0.65

95.99

81

Luke Hochevar

0.64

95.27

82

Bronson Arroyo

0.64

94.80

This next group has some really interesting pitchers. The first that comes to mind is Clay Buchholz. He was hurt in this formula by only starting in 14 games last year. But otherwise his peripherals point to being a top pitcher. One of my favorite pitchers is on here too in Rick Porcello. I know, nothing statistically screams greatness but at just 23 I see a bright future ahead of him and a consistent climb up this list. Yankee 2nd year pitcher Ivan Nova is here too. While there is no doubt that pitching for the Yankees will usually result in a good W/L % the rest of his numbers are not good, especially his BB rate and lack of ability to strike out hitters. Nick Blackburn shows up in this group along with Brian Duensing. Duensing will disappear on this list if he doesn't get his requisite starts in, which looks unlikely that he will in that he will be relegated to the long role in the Twins Bullpen in 2012.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

83

Jonathan Sánchez

0.64

94.62

84

Clay Buchholz

0.64

94.43

85

Rick Porcello

0.64

94.37

86

Joel Piñeiro

0.64

94.19

87

Bartolo Colón

0.64

94.14

88

Tim Stauffer

0.64

93.96

89

Mike Pelfrey

0.63

93.83

90

Carlos Zambrano

0.63

93.41

91

Iván Nova

0.63

92.76

92

Fausto Carmona

0.63

92.75

93

Aaron Harang

0.63

92.73

94

Freddy García

0.63

92.69

95

Bud Norris

0.63

92.59

96

Ryan Vogelsong

0.63

92.54

97

Liván Hernández

0.63

92.36

98

John Lannan

0.62

91.80

99

Anibal Sánchez

0.62

91.64

100

Tim Wakefield

0.62

91.61

101

Carlos Villanueva

0.62

91.45

102

Jonathon Niese

0.62

91.38

103

Bruce Chen

0.61

90.87

104

Charlie Morton

0.61

90.75

105

Brian Duensing

0.61

90.69

106

Nick Blackburn

0.61

90.55

107

Wade Davis

0.61

90.55

108

Chris Capuano

0.60

89.28

109

Mike Leake

0.60

89.20

We are starting to get to the place where I wonder if there is any need to group these pitchers any more. What's the point right? I do like a few guys in this group though. Edinson can be dirty - if he can just realize where the plate is, Homer Bailey is very dirty - he just needs to figure it out (I think he will in '12), & James McDonald - has the make-up to move up on this list quickly (command is his issue too).

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

110

Edinson Vólquez

0.60

89.09

111

Jeff Karstens

0.60

88.47

112

Jeff Francis

0.60

88.19

113

J.A. Happ

0.60

87.98

114

Phil Hughes

0.59

87.87

115

Chris Volstad

0.59

87.75

116

Jason Hammel

0.59

87.54

117

Brett Cecil

0.59

87.39

118

Homer Bailey

0.59

87.26

119

Clayton Richard

0.59

87.03

120

James McDonald

0.59

86.73

121

Kevin Correia

0.59

86.66

122

Jake Westbrook

0.59

86.60

123

Randy Wells

0.58

86.18

124

Tom Gorzelanny

0.58

85.35

Finally, the lowest rung of qualified pitchers including such names as Chris Narveson, Brad Penny & something called Ross Detwiller. This list also has Zach Britton on it too. I am in love with this guys stuff and feel like he is going to join the elite level of pitchers in the next few years.

World Rankings - SP

#

Name

Rating

Score

125

Dillon Gee

0.57

84.46

126

Travis Wood

0.57

83.95

127

Kyle Kendrick

0.57

83.81

128

Chris Narveson

0.57

83.70

129

Brad Penny

0.56

83.29

130

Zach Britton

0.56

82.91

131

Tommy Hunter

0.56

82.50

132

Brett Anderson

0.56

82.46

133

Kyle Davies

0.56

82.18

134

Brad Bergesen

0.55

81.50

135

Aaron Cook

0.55

81.48

136

Dustin Moseley

0.55

81.24

137

Ross Detwiler

0.54

79.75

138

Jason Marquis

0.53

78.43

139

Wade LeBlanc

0.53

78.18

140

Chien-Ming Wang

0.53

77.72

141

Jake Arrieta

0.52

77.47

142

David Huff

0.52

77.10

143

Jo-Jo Reyes

0.52

76.39

144

Andrew Miller

0.52

76.14

145

Tyler Chatwood

0.51

75.17

146

Dontrelle Willis

0.51

74.84

147

Chris Tillman

0.51

74.66

148

Rodrigo López

0.50

74.29

149

Casey Coleman

0.50

73.20

150

Brian Matusz

0.49

72.34

151

Carlos Carrasco

0.48

70.55

152

Mitch Talbot

0.47

70.04

153

Sean O'Sullivan

0.42

62.65

This was a fun project. Thanks for letting me share my results with you. Debate away!

~Al