Starting Pitcher's World Rankings
The first edition of the 2012 Starting Pitcher's World Rankings is ready to be released as April rolls to an end. As documented early this spring, the ranking is a simple statistical model of effectiveness using 9 categories, 2 groups of samples based on years & weighted levels on of each of these. 18 independent influences of data reduced to a baseline number added together with its corresponding weight.
Value
|
Formula
|
Years
|
Weight
|
|
A
|
Walks Per 9 Innings
|
2009-12
|
11.4
|
|
B
|
Walks Per 9 Innings
|
2011-12
|
7.3
|
|
C
|
Batters Faced
|
2009-12
|
2.9
|
|
D
|
Batters Faced
|
2011-12
|
1.5
|
|
E
|
Complete Games
|
2009-12
|
2.2
|
|
F
|
Complete Games
|
2011-12
|
1.1
|
|
G
|
Defense Ind ERA
|
2009-12
|
7.1
|
|
H
|
Defense Ind ERA
|
2011-12
|
4.1
|
|
I
|
ERA + (Ballpark eff)
|
2009-12
|
6.2
|
|
J
|
ERA + (Ballpark eff)
|
2011-12
|
3.1
|
|
K
|
Hits Per 9 Innings
|
2009-12
|
13.9
|
|
L
|
Hits Per 9 Innings
|
2011-12
|
7.6
|
|
M
|
IP/GS
|
2009-12
|
6.1
|
|
N
|
IP/GS
|
2011-12
|
3.6
|
|
O
|
K's Per 9 Innings
|
2009-12
|
12.5
|
|
P
|
K's Per 9 Innings
|
2011-12
|
6.2
|
|
Q
|
Wins
|
2009-12
|
2.1
|
|
R
|
Wins
|
2011-12
|
1.6
|
|
W
|
Weight Factor
|
lower case (a,b,c,etc.)
|
|
X
|
Total Value (Score)
|
TV leading #
|
|
Y
|
X/ Highest Total Value (Rating)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X=(A/a*w)+(B/b*w)+(C/c*w)+(D/d*w)+(E/e*w)+(F/f*w)+(G/g*w)+(H/h*w)+(I/i*w)+(J/j*w)+(K/k*w)+(L/l*w)+(M/m*w)+(N/n*w)+(O/o*w)+(P/p*w)+(Q/q*w)+(R/r*w)
|
|
|
|
The values of A, C, E, etc. are data samples from 2009-2012. This allows the formula to have a solid size of relevant data to analyze. This data makes up a little over 60% of the weight on the data itself. The remaining weight comes from last year's stats and the early stats from 2012. This set of data (B, D, F, etc.) has a lower weight but also influences the 2009-12 data sets and its weight is emphasizing smaller sample sizes of 2011-12.
The purpose of the data is to get a live look at the top Starting Pitchers is MLB & compare the results among the other starters to get a representation of each other.
Emphasis on the data is put on an ability to show dominance with the strikeout, get hitters out in a ballpark neutral and defensive independent fashion & keep runners off base via both the walk and the hit. A lot of stats have influence on each other but none like the strikeout. This dominance can have influence on BB/9, DICE, ERA+ & H/9... But it isn't everything. There are plenty of pitchers out there who can strike hitters out but still end up in trouble game after game. This lack of command shoots these same indicators up so the idea with this is to get a variety of stats to create a base and then emphasize the stats the pitcher has the most control over.
The biggest change from the end of the 2011 list to the live rankings during the 2012 season is that the 2008 data falls off. The influence that year had is gone, whether good or bad.
The Results
Once a value is created it can be categorized. Below is the chart to indicate the current results. This chart has the ability to slot a pitcher into various roles on a starting staff at any given time. It can fluctuate however. A major influence is the Youth Dominating Effect a young pitcher can have on the data. Smaller sample sizes and high dominance can make the baseline data so extreme it lowers everyone in the data sample. As soon as dominance levels and sample size increases we should see a return to normality in the chart. (Foreshadowing)
Current Chart Indicators
|
HOF LEVEL
|
|
135 +
|
|
ACE LEVEL
|
|
125 +
|
|
Solid #1 Starter
|
|
115 +
|
|
Solid #2 Starter
|
|
105 +
|
|
Solid #3 Starter
|
|
100 +
|
|
#Solid #4 Starter
|
|
95 +
|
|
Borderline MLB/AAA
|
|
90 +
|
|
Replacement Level
|
Under 90
|
Minimums do apply to the data. A pitcher must have 25 starts in his career and 10 of them must have occurred over the 2011 & 12 seasons. This is keeping Stephen Strasburg off this list until his next start. The influence Strasburg is going to have on May's SP World Rankings could be mind-boggling. With his stats influencing everyone else's numbers we may see a huge shift in the scale of scores in regard to the corresponding team role. An argument can be made that he is the best pitchers in baseball, right now! The level of dominance that he possesses is unprecedented. With his career K/BB over 5.6 (!), a 2012 ERA+ of 336 (!), and his complete unwillingness to give up the long ball, we are witnessing something very special in D.C.
This rule
has now allowed Josh Johnson to join this group at this point however, debuting as the #8 pitcher in MLB. A dominating pitcher in his own right, health has really been the only thing keeping him from knocking on the door of the pitching elite. Without further adieu, here is the first list in 2012 of World Rankings for Starting Pitchers.
These Guy's Better Be Pitching On Opening Day
World Rankings - SP
|
Through 4-24-12
|
Last Poll
|
#
|
Name
|
Rating
|
Score
|
Rank (+/-)
|
Score +/-
|
1
|
Roy Halladay
|
1.000
|
150.794
|
1 (--)
|
3.0
|
2
|
Justin Verlander
|
0.943
|
142.209
|
3 (1)
|
5.7
|
3
|
Cliff Lee
|
0.920
|
138.796
|
2 (-1)
|
-0.5
|
4
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
0.884
|
133.324
|
6 (2)
|
4.1
|
5
|
Dan Haren
|
0.878
|
132.325
|
5 (--)
|
1.2
|
6
|
Jered Weaver
|
0.873
|
131.592
|
8 (2)
|
4.3
|
7
|
CC Sabathia
|
0.859
|
129.602
|
4 (-3)
|
-1.6
|
8
|
Josh Johnson
|
0.853
|
128.617
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
9
|
James Shields
|
0.829
|
124.970
|
10 (1)
|
1.4
|
10
|
C.J. Wilson
|
0.820
|
123.641
|
15 (5)
|
5.3
|
11
|
Tim Lincecum
|
0.816
|
123.050
|
9 (-2)
|
-3.4
|
12
|
Zack Greinke
|
0.815
|
122.877
|
12 (--)
|
2.9
|
13
|
Matt Cain
|
0.813
|
122.581
|
11 (-2)
|
2.4
|
14
|
Cole Hamels
|
0.799
|
120.505
|
13 (-1)
|
0.6
|
15
|
Jon Lester
|
0.794
|
119.758
|
14 (-1)
|
0.5
|
16
|
David Price
|
0.789
|
118.971
|
19 (3)
|
3.8
|
17
|
Josh Beckett
|
0.775
|
116.820
|
17 (--)
|
-0.6
|
18
|
Chris Carpenter
|
0.774
|
116.686
|
18 (--)
|
0.8
|
19
|
Ricky Romero
|
0.771
|
116.269
|
23 (4)
|
4.8
|
20
|
Brandon McCarthy
|
0.766
|
115.487
|
28 (8)
|
6.9
|
21
|
Doug Fister
|
0.764
|
115.200
|
16 (-5)
|
-2.5
|
Justin Verlander takes over the #2 spot from Cliff Lee. This is due in large part to his 2008 statistics coming off the current data matrix. His abysmal 1.87 K/BB ratio in 2008 lead to the worst year of his career.
2008 was also a terrible year for C.J. Wilson. Part of this was the year he had; terrible across the board. The other part was he wasn't a full time starter yet and didn't benefit from any IP/GS or BF indicators.
Brandon McCarthy moved up from #28 up to #20 after eliminating limited 2008 data.
On the flip side of these guys is Tim Lincecum. 2008 was an incredible year for him as he won his first Cy Young award. Those numbers come off the board and while still maintaining solid numbers since then he certainly has not performed as well.
On to the #2's
World Rankings - SP
|
Through 4-24-12
|
Last Poll
|
#
|
Name
|
Rating
|
Score
|
Rank (+/-)
|
Score +/-
|
22
|
Matt Garza
|
0.746
|
112.447
|
22 (--)
|
0.9
|
23
|
Carl Pavano
|
0.744
|
112.180
|
45 (22)
|
6.9
|
24
|
Yovani Gallardo
|
0.743
|
112.043
|
34 (10)
|
4.7
|
25
|
Gavin Floyd
|
0.740
|
111.551
|
25 (--)
|
1.4
|
26
|
Ian Kennedy
|
0.739
|
111.497
|
35 (9)
|
4.7
|
27
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
0.736
|
111.006
|
30 (3)
|
3.0
|
28
|
Ervin Santana
|
0.731
|
110.186
|
20 (-8)
|
-2.3
|
29
|
Justin Masterson
|
0.729
|
109.983
|
26 (-3)
|
0.0
|
30
|
Mat Latos
|
0.719
|
108.466
|
41 (11)
|
2.7
|
31
|
Tommy Hanson
|
0.718
|
108.236
|
63 (32)
|
9.2
|
32
|
Hiroki Kuroda
|
0.718
|
108.202
|
31 (-1)
|
0.4
|
33
|
Johnny Cueto
|
0.715
|
107.842
|
40 (7)
|
2.0
|
34
|
Mark Buehrle
|
0.714
|
107.742
|
32 (-2)
|
0.2
|
35
|
Daniel Hudson
|
0.714
|
107.714
|
42 (7)
|
2.1
|
36
|
Brandon Morrow
|
0.714
|
107.659
|
39 (3)
|
1.7
|
37
|
John Danks
|
0.713
|
107.575
|
33 (-4)
|
0.2
|
38
|
Colby Lewis
|
0.712
|
107.315
|
53 (15)
|
4.7
|
39
|
Max Scherzer
|
0.711
|
107.209
|
48 (9)
|
3.0
|
40
|
Ted Lilly
|
0.711
|
107.201
|
38 (-2)
|
1.1
|
41
|
Jake Peavy
|
0.710
|
107.102
|
50 (9)
|
3.1
|
42
|
Scott Baker
|
0.707
|
106.635
|
24 (-18)
|
-3.7
|
43
|
Edwin Jackson
|
0.699
|
105.389
|
52 (9)
|
1.9
|
44
|
Shaun Marcum
|
0.698
|
105.325
|
61 (17)
|
5.7
|
45
|
Tim Hudson
|
0.698
|
105.272
|
47 (2)
|
0.9
|
Look who has shot up the list: Carl Pavano. Getting rid of 2008 was huge for him as he jumps 22 spots up to #23. Erving Santana was not as lucky as his rock solid 2008 is now gone. With the way he has been throwing so far in 2012 his stock is definitely falling
Middle of the Road
World Rankings - SP
|
Through 4-24-12
|
Last Poll
|
#
|
Name
|
Rating
|
Score
|
Rank (+/-)
|
Score +/-
|
46
|
Chad Billingsley
|
0.696
|
104.931
|
37 (-9)
|
-1.4
|
47
|
Ricky Nolasco
|
0.694
|
104.724
|
46 (-1)
|
-0.3
|
48
|
Josh Tomlin
|
0.693
|
104.560
|
54 (6)
|
2.5
|
49
|
Alexi Ogando
|
0.691
|
104.265
|
43 (-6)
|
-1.1
|
50
|
Vance Worley
|
0.688
|
103.815
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
51
|
Erik Bedard
|
0.687
|
103.615
|
56 (5)
|
2.5
|
52
|
Jeremy Hellickson
|
0.687
|
103.538
|
60 (8)
|
3.2
|
53
|
Michael Pineda
|
0.685
|
103.279
|
36 (-17)
|
-3.5
|
54
|
Jason Vargas
|
0.684
|
103.079
|
72 (18)
|
5.8
|
55
|
Jordan Zimmermann
|
0.683
|
103.026
|
64 (9)
|
4.1
|
56
|
Brandon Beachy
|
0.681
|
102.616
|
66 (10)
|
4.0
|
57
|
Trevor Cahill
|
0.680
|
102.531
|
67 (10)
|
3.9
|
58
|
Jeff Niemann
|
0.678
|
102.197
|
65 (7)
|
3.5
|
59
|
Ryan Dempster
|
0.677
|
102.082
|
51 (-8)
|
-1.8
|
60
|
Derek Holland
|
0.674
|
101.597
|
75 (15)
|
4.7
|
61
|
R.A. Dickey
|
0.673
|
101.457
|
71 (10)
|
4.0
|
62
|
Jeremy Guthrie
|
0.671
|
101.148
|
57 (-5)
|
0.4
|
63
|
Randy Wolf
|
0.668
|
100.732
|
58 (-5)
|
0.2
|
64
|
Clay Buchholz
|
0.667
|
100.520
|
84 (20)
|
6.1
|
65
|
Josh Collmenter
|
0.665
|
100.316
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
66
|
Jair Jurrjens
|
0.664
|
100.158
|
55 (-11)
|
-1.8
|
67
|
A.J. Burnett
|
0.662
|
99.777
|
68 (1)
|
1.3
|
68
|
Francisco Liriano
|
0.656
|
98.949
|
70 (2)
|
0.6
|
69
|
Philip Humber
|
0.653
|
98.435
|
79 (10)
|
2.3
|
70
|
Jhoulys Chacin
|
0.651
|
98.102
|
78 (8)
|
1.8
|
71
|
Matt Harrison
|
0.648
|
97.645
|
80 (9)
|
1.7
|
72
|
Ryan Vogelsong
|
0.647
|
97.568
|
96 (24)
|
5.0
|
73
|
Bronson Arroyo
|
0.646
|
97.443
|
82 (9)
|
2.6
|
74
|
Rick Porcello
|
0.646
|
97.374
|
85 (11)
|
3.0
|
75
|
Derek Lowe
|
0.646
|
97.374
|
62 (-13)
|
-2.2
|
76
|
Kyle Lohse
|
0.645
|
97.308
|
69 (-7)
|
-1.1
|
77
|
Luke Hochevar
|
0.640
|
96.509
|
81 (4)
|
1.2
|
78
|
Brett Anderson
|
0.637
|
96.108
|
132 (54)
|
13.6
|
79
|
Bud Norris
|
0.637
|
96.022
|
95 (16)
|
3.4
|
80
|
Joe Saunders
|
0.634
|
95.572
|
74 (-6)
|
-1.4
|
81
|
Kevin Millwood
|
0.632
|
95.310
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
82
|
Tommy Hunter
|
0.631
|
95.132
|
131 (49)
|
12.6
|
Here we see the debut of a couple of young pitchers in Josh Collmenter & Vance Worley. The opposite of young, Kevin Millwood, qualifies now as has reached the 10 start minimum with his 3 early starts this season. He's so bad.
Tommy Hunter's 2008 season cleared from his data. This helped shoot him up from his replacement level score of 82.5 up to a more appropriate #4 level of 95.1.
A Pitch Away from AAA
World Rankings - SP
|
Through 4-24-12
|
Last Poll
|
#
|
Name
|
Rating
|
Score
|
Rank (+/-)
|
Score +/-
|
83
|
Jonathon Niese
|
0.629
|
94.887
|
102 (19)
|
3.5
|
84
|
Joel Piñeiro
|
0.629
|
94.860
|
86 (2)
|
0.7
|
85
|
Paul Maholm
|
0.628
|
94.625
|
73 (-12)
|
-2.4
|
86
|
Bruce Chen
|
0.627
|
94.497
|
103 (17)
|
3.6
|
87
|
John Lackey
|
0.623
|
93.979
|
77 (-10)
|
-2.5
|
88
|
Aaron Harang
|
0.620
|
93.537
|
93 (5)
|
0.8
|
89
|
Chris Capuano
|
0.618
|
93.253
|
108 (19)
|
4.0
|
90
|
Jorge De La Rosa
|
0.616
|
92.964
|
76 (-14)
|
-3.6
|
91
|
Carlos Zambrano
|
0.615
|
92.788
|
90 (-1)
|
-0.6
|
92
|
Tim Stauffer
|
0.612
|
92.360
|
88 (-4)
|
-1.6
|
93
|
Phil Hughes
|
0.612
|
92.335
|
114 (21)
|
4.5
|
94
|
Mike Pelfrey
|
0.611
|
92.102
|
89 (-5)
|
-1.7
|
95
|
Homer Bailey
|
0.610
|
92.008
|
118 (23)
|
4.7
|
96
|
Joe Blanton
|
0.608
|
91.729
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
97
|
Jason Hammel
|
0.608
|
91.721
|
116 (19)
|
4.2
|
98
|
Brian Duensing
|
0.608
|
91.683
|
105 (7)
|
1.0
|
99
|
Mike Leake
|
0.607
|
91.494
|
109 (10)
|
2.3
|
100
|
Clayton Richard
|
0.606
|
91.409
|
119 (19)
|
4.4
|
101
|
J.A. Happ
|
0.606
|
91.361
|
113 (12)
|
3.4
|
102
|
Wade Davis
|
0.605
|
91.251
|
107 (5)
|
0.7
|
103
|
Charlie Morton
|
0.604
|
91.096
|
104 (1)
|
0.3
|
104
|
Fausto Carmona
|
0.603
|
90.859
|
92 (-12)
|
-1.9
|
105
|
Kevin Correia
|
0.600
|
90.461
|
121 (16)
|
3.8
|
One guy on this list who really has a chance to jump up this list is Homer Bailey. He has shown a better command of his pitches, although he has seemed to have completely lost the ability to strikeout hitters so far this season. Small sample size though and if his K/9 can get back to where it was the last couple years you could see him jump up this list rather easily. There isn't much data holding down his numbers from previous years. If he pitches well and often in 2012 it will have a huge influence on data.
Hide the Children
World Rankings - SP
|
Through 4-24-12
|
Last Poll
|
#
|
Name
|
Rating
|
Score
|
Rank (+/-)
|
Score +/-
|
106
|
Chris Volstad
|
0.595
|
89.763
|
115 (9)
|
2.0
|
107
|
Chris Narveson
|
0.592
|
89.276
|
128 (21)
|
5.6
|
108
|
Nick Blackburn
|
0.591
|
89.081
|
106 (-2)
|
-1.5
|
109
|
James McDonald
|
0.590
|
88.996
|
120 (11)
|
2.3
|
110
|
Jeff Karstens
|
0.590
|
88.986
|
111 (1)
|
0.5
|
111
|
Mike Minor
|
0.587
|
88.569
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
112
|
Barry Zito
|
0.587
|
88.566
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
113
|
Jake Westbrook
|
0.587
|
88.495
|
122 (9)
|
1.9
|
114
|
Tom Gorzelanny
|
0.586
|
88.349
|
124 (10)
|
3.0
|
115
|
Randy Wells
|
0.583
|
87.865
|
123 (8)
|
1.7
|
116
|
John Lannan
|
0.583
|
87.853
|
98 (-18)
|
-3.9
|
117
|
Brett Cecil
|
0.582
|
87.794
|
117 (--)
|
0.4
|
118
|
Jeff Francis
|
0.577
|
86.947
|
112 (-6)
|
-1.2
|
119
|
Dillon Gee
|
0.574
|
86.517
|
125 (6)
|
2.1
|
120
|
Jason Marquis
|
0.568
|
85.637
|
138 (18)
|
7.2
|
121
|
Jake Arrieta
|
0.564
|
85.008
|
141 (20)
|
7.5
|
122
|
Anthony Swarzak
|
0.555
|
83.625
|
#N/A
|
#N/A
|
123
|
Zach Britton
|
0.555
|
83.620
|
130 (7)
|
0.7
|
124
|
Kyle Kendrick
|
0.550
|
82.972
|
127 (3)
|
-0.8
|
125
|
Ross Detwiler
|
0.548
|
82.661
|
137 (12)
|
2.9
|
126
|
Travis Wood
|
0.544
|
82.088
|
126 (--)
|
-1.9
|
127
|
Brad Bergesen
|
0.542
|
81.795
|
134 (7)
|
0.3
|
128
|
Carlos Carrasco
|
0.541
|
81.575
|
151 (23)
|
11.0
|
129
|
Kyle Davies
|
0.529
|
79.743
|
133 (4)
|
-2.4
|
130
|
Dustin Moseley
|
0.527
|
79.524
|
136 (6)
|
-1.7
|
131
|
Wade LeBlanc
|
0.519
|
78.261
|
139 (8)
|
0.1
|
132
|
Brian Matusz
|
0.507
|
76.469
|
132 (18)
|
4.1
|
133
|
David Huff
|
0.503
|
75.880
|
142 (9)
|
-1.2
|
134
|
Jo-Jo Reyes
|
0.496
|
74.779
|
143 (9)
|
-1.6
|
135
|
Aaron Cook
|
0.493
|
74.387
|
135 (--)
|
-7.1
|
136
|
Tyler Chatwood
|
0.493
|
74.384
|
147 (11)
|
-0.8
|
137
|
Chris Tillman
|
0.486
|
73.235
|
149 (12)
|
-1.4
|
138
|
Dontrelle Willis
|
0.480
|
72.449
|
148 (10)
|
-2.4
|
139
|
Casey Coleman
|
0.477
|
71.859
|
151 (12)
|
-1.3
|
140
|
Andrew Miller
|
0.471
|
71.095
|
144 (4)
|
-5.0
|
141
|
Sean O'Sullivan
|
0.409
|
61.696
|
153 (12)
|
-1.0
|
There are a couple of guys on this list that could be very solid starters. Mike Minor recently had a solid outing for the Braves and with the trouble that they are having health-wise he should be given a legitimate chance to keep his spot in that rotation. I am a big fan of James McDonald, Zach Britton & Jake Arrieta
Unfortunately Anthony Swarzak now qualifies for this list... ugh. When the Twins are rolling out Nick Blackburn, Jason Marquis, Swarzak and - coming soon - Liam Hendriks as Replacement Level pitchers on any given night, we can almost be assured of a long, long season.