FanPost

Fancier Sickels-based Team Prospect Rankings



Cowbell, Clutterheart and others pointed out that my scoring system for determining team prospect rankings based on John Sickels's team top 20s wasn't all that great because I was undervaluing the top prospects. This is fixable, since people have figured out how valuable prospects are based on their Baseball America top 100 list ranking. Hitting prospects, it turns out, are significantly more valuable than pitching prospects. And, as suggested, the very top prospects are super-valuable, and prospect value goes down sharply after the top 10, 25, and 50, then levels out.

This is roughly the dollar value of top 100 prospects in millions (I averaged two measurements of it found in the link above):

Value
Hitters 1-10 $ 39.35
Hitters 11-25 $ 29.23
Hitters 26-50 $ 20.76
Hitters 51-75 $ 12.20
Hitters 76-100 $ 11.47
Pitchers 1-10 $ 20.95
Pitchers 11-25 $ 17.40
Pitchers 26-50 $ 15.30
Pitchers 51-75 $ 9.80
Pitchers 76-100 $ 8.87

Sickels' top 7 prospects are A grade, the 8th through 24th are A-, the 25th-74th are B+, the 75th-146th are B, the 148th-306th are B-, and the 307th-550th (approximately) are C+. I fit the prospect values onto Sickels's grade rankings (roughly, and with some guesswork extrapolation for b, b-, and c+ prospects outside the top 100), and got:

a a- b+ b b- c+ c
Hitters $ 39.4 $ 31.0 $ 16.8 $ 10.9 $ 7.8 $ 3.0 $ -
Pitchers $ 21.2 $ 17.9 $ 12.9 $ 8.4 $ 5.8 $ 1.7 $ -

So now we have the ingredients to do new rankings, which will give more credit to farm systems with more position players and the highest ranked prospects. Pitchers first:

Pitchers team A A- B+ B B- C+ C Value
1 Cardinals 1 1 2 0 1 4 0 $ 77.6
2 Diamondbacks 0 2 0 2 4 1 0 $ 77.6
3 Pirates 1 1 1 0 2 8 0 $ 77.4
4 Rays 0 0 3 0 6 1 0 $ 75.3
5 Mariners 0 1 2 2 1 5 0 $ 75.0
6 Mets 0 2 0 1 4 4 0 $ 74.4
7 Padres 0 0 0 4 5 5 0 $ 71.3
8 Giants 0 0 3 0 3 7 0 $ 68.3
9 Blue Jays 0 0 2 2 2 6 0 $ 64.6
10 Orioles 1 1 0 0 3 2 2 $ 59.9
11 Marlins 1 0 1 1 1 6 0 $ 58.7
12 Braves 0 0 0 2 6 3 0 $ 56.8
13 Phillies 0 0 1 1 4 7 0 $ 56.7
14 Royals 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 $ 54.1
15 Twins 0 0 1 2 3 3 0 $ 52.3
16 Red Sox 0 0 1 2 2 4 0 $ 48.3
17 Astros 0 0 0 4 1 4 0 $ 46.4
18 Yankees 0 0 0 0 7 3 0 $ 45.8
19 Rangers 0 0 0 4 1 3 0 $ 44.7
20 Brewers 0 0 0 2 3 6 0 $ 44.6
21 Reds 0 0 2 0 2 4 0 $ 44.3
22 Indians 0 1 0 0 2 5 2 $ 38.2
23 Dodgers 0 0 0 1 3 7 1 $ 37.9
24 Athletics 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 $ 30.2
25 Nationals 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 $ 29.3
26 Cubs 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 $ 28.4
27 Rockies 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 $ 27.8
28 Tigers 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 $ 23.5
29 White Sox 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 $ 16.8
30 Angels 0 0 0 1 0 3 4 $ 13.6
Total 4 9 20 37 85 122 20 $ 1,520.0

And the position players:

Hitters team A A- B+ B B- C+ C Score
1 Rangers 1 1 0 2 5 3 0 $ 140.2
2 Cubs 0 1 2 1 4 5 0 $ 121.8
3 Astros 0 1 2 1 5 2 0 $ 120.6
4 Twins 0 1 2 3 1 4 0 $ 117.2
5 Red Sox 1 0 1 1 3 5 0 $ 105.5
6 Cardinals 1 0 0 2 4 4 0 $ 104.4
7 Rays 1 0 0 1 6 2 0 $ 103.1
8 Mariners 0 1 2 1 0 5 0 $ 90.5
9 Marlins 0 1 0 1 5 3 0 $ 90.0
10 Rockies 0 0 3 1 1 6 0 $ 87.1
11 Mets 0 1 1 0 2 5 0 $ 78.4
12 Yankees 0 0 2 2 1 5 0 $ 78.2
13 Diamondbacks 0 0 0 3 5 2 1 $ 77.8
14 Reds 0 1 1 1 0 6 3 $ 76.7
15 Nationals 0 0 2 2 0 7 2 $ 76.4
16 Pirates 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 $ 74.1
17 Athletics 0 0 1 1 4 3 4 $ 68.0
18 Padres 0 0 3 0 1 2 0 $ 64.3
19 Brewers 0 0 0 2 4 3 0 $ 62.1
20 Dodgers 0 0 2 1 0 5 0 $ 59.5
21 Royals 0 0 0 2 3 4 1 $ 57.2
22 Tigers 0 0 1 1 3 1 5 $ 54.2
23 Indians 0 0 1 1 1 5 2 $ 50.5
23 White Sox 0 0 1 1 1 5 3 $ 50.5
25 Angels 0 0 1 0 3 3 5 $ 49.2
26 Phillies 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 $ 45.1
27 Giants 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 $ 38.5
28 Braves 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 $ 36.5
29 Orioles 0 0 0 1 1 5 4 $ 33.7
30 Blue Jays 0 0 0 0 1 6 1 $ 25.7
Total 4 8 30 35 75 120 31 $ 2,236.9

And the totals:

Pitch. Value Pitch. Rank Hitt. Value Hitt. Rank TOTAL RANK
Rangers $ 44.7 19 $ 140.2 1 $ 184.9 1
Cardinals $ 77.6 1 $ 104.4 6 $ 182.0 2
Rays $ 75.3 4 $ 103.1 7 $ 178.4 3
Twins $ 52.3 15 $ 117.2 4 $ 169.5 4
Astros $ 46.4 17 $ 120.6 3 $ 167.0 5
Mariners $ 75.0 5 $ 90.5 8 $ 165.5 6
Diamondbacks $ 77.6 2 $ 77.8 13 $ 155.4 7
Red Sox $ 48.3 16 $ 105.5 5 $ 153.7 8
Mets $ 74.4 6 $ 78.4 11 $ 152.8 9
Pirates $ 77.4 3 $ 74.1 16 $ 151.5 10
Cubs $ 28.4 26 $ 121.8 2 $ 150.2 11
Marlins $ 58.7 11 $ 90.0 9 $ 148.7 12
Padres $ 71.3 7 $ 64.3 18 $ 135.6 13
Yankees $ 45.8 18 $ 78.2 12 $ 124.0 14
Reds $ 44.3 21 $ 76.7 14 $ 121.0 15
Rockies $ 27.8 27 $ 87.1 10 $ 114.9 16
Royals $ 54.1 14 $ 57.2 21 $ 111.3 17
Giants $ 68.3 8 $ 38.5 27 $ 106.8 18
Brewers $ 44.6 20 $ 62.1 19 $ 106.7 19
Nationals $ 29.3 25 $ 76.4 15 $ 105.7 20
Phillies $ 56.7 13 $ 45.1 26 $ 101.7 21
Athletics $ 30.2 24 $ 68.0 17 $ 98.1 22
Dodgers $ 37.9 23 $ 59.5 20 $ 97.4 23
Orioles $ 59.9 10 $ 33.7 29 $ 93.6 24
Braves $ 56.8 12 $ 36.5 28 $ 93.4 25
Blue Jays $ 64.6 9 $ 25.7 30 $ 90.4 26
Indians $ 38.2 22 $ 50.5 23 $ 88.7 27
Tigers $ 23.5 28 $ 54.2 22 $ 77.7 28
White Sox $ 16.8 29 $ 50.5 23 $ 67.3 29
Angels $ 13.6 30 $ 49.2 25 $ 62.8 30
Total $ 1,520.0 $ 2,236.9 $ 3,756.8

Still a very good overall score for the Twins, who benefit from having most of their prospect riches in position players.



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