FanPost

Twins Hitting Prospects Cheat Sheet

Hannah Foslien

I put together some stats that I think will be fun (I think "useful" would be taking things a bit too seriously) for prospect watchers and we TwinkieTown top-25 voters this offseason. For prominent young Twins position players, I calculated their overall age relative to league over the course of their careers (in table below as AgeL) and compared that to their career stats.

So the method is this: I started with a pure assumption on my part that a "natural" prospect progression is like this:

The player will be age 19 in the Gulf Coast League,

20 in the Appy League

21 in A

22 in A+

23 in AA

24 in AAA

and 25 in MLB.

Each player is measured against that baseline and how much younger they were than those figures. So Aaron Hicks, e.g., has been on average 1 year younger than his league, compared to the numbers above, so he has an AgeL of 1. Josmil Pinto has been on average 0.2 years older than his league, so he has an AgeL of -0.2. See, sort of fun. All stats are weighted by plate appearance and incorporate both MiLB and MLB stats.

For me, it helps contextualize our prospects' performances against each other, but also helps with comparing prospects with young MLB guys like Hicks and Arcia who no longer quality for prospect lists. Here's the list, sorted by overall offensive performance relative to league, measured by wRC+ .

Age AgeL wRC+ K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG PA
Byron Buxton 19.8 2.1 158 19% 0.191 0.377 0.313 0.404 0.503 763
Miguel Sano 20.4 2.5 155 27% 0.293 0.328 0.275 0.368 0.569 1526
Oswaldo Arcia 22.4 2.1 151 22% 0.228 0.365 0.305 0.366 0.533 1844
Kennys Vargas 23.1 -0.3 143 23% 0.201 0.352 0.290 0.370 0.492 1187
Eddie Rosario 22.0 0.9 138 17% 0.203 0.344 0.307 0.357 0.510 1504
Josmil Pinto 24.5 -0.2 132 17% 0.183 0.322 0.288 0.356 0.471 2029
Travis Harrison 20.9 0.8 128 22% 0.161 0.334 0.270 0.373 0.432 790
Adam Walker 21.9 -0.2 126 24% 0.247 0.304 0.268 0.315 0.515 805
Chris Parmelee 25.6 0.9 124 21% 0.176 0.314 0.266 0.355 0.443 3757
Jorge Polanco 20.2 1.6 119 11% 0.138 0.314 0.288 0.351 0.427 1039
Max Kepler 20.6 1.5 119 17% 0.161 0.314 0.270 0.350 0.432 906
Aaron Hicks 24.0 1.0 116 21% 0.147 0.323 0.260 0.361 0.407 2505
Chris Herrmann 25.8 -0.6 103 17% 0.114 0.299 0.254 0.343 0.368 2215
Danny Santana 22.9 0.9 100 18% 0.116 0.328 0.275 0.316 0.391 2016
Pedro Florimon 26.8 -0.4 85 24% 0.104 0.320 0.245 0.314 0.349 3494

For instance, I think it's interesting that Arcia is so close to Buxton and Sano not just in overall offensive performance, but in terms of age also. Despite not having a really flashy rookie year, he's clearly still a guy to expect a lot from given how much he has accomplished and how fast. Hicks has a somewhat similar story to tell. Guys like Adam Walker on the other hand maybe don't look as impressive despite some good offensive numbers when you consider that, say, Chris Parmelee has averaged about the same production relative to league while being, on average, a full year younger than Walker.

Maybe it would be fun to do a Top-10 Under 25 for the site in addition to the prospect list? I think that sort of list is generally even more interesting than the pure prospect lists.

(full disclosure: the stats and ages above are as of 9-24-2013 when I pulled these stats. That leaves out only about 1 week of the season)












X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Twinkie Town

You must be a member of Twinkie Town to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Twinkie Town. You should read them.

Join Twinkie Town

You must be a member of Twinkie Town to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Twinkie Town. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker