In the run up to the 2012 draft, I was all over the place. Like most I assumed that Appel would be # 1 so I thought Twins would choose between Correa, Buxton, Gausman & Zunino. I was hoping the Twins would take Correa or Zunino as I was not sold on Buxton or Gausman.
Appel we all know did not get drafted until 8th, Correa went #1, Buxton # 2, Zunino going #3 and Gausman going #4.
Correa signed and played well in his young career. He has a long way to go and has not looked like a true #1 pick. However, the Astros were able to sign him under slot and used that money to go over after many talented prospects and had an overall good draft.
Buxton signed quick. He then rose up the ranks hit well and played good defense. Its expected he starts at a Low A this year and best case is he ends the year at High A.
Zunino signed quick and rose the ranks all the way to AA. He played well in the AFL and by all accounts is a good defense and offensive catcher. He could be on the Big League team by June or July. He is a guy who if it all works out, Twins fans might regret not taking if Buxton does not take off.
Gausman has looked really good too.But in his short career, he might be a bit too hittable. He could be another guy the Twins regret not taking as his "stuff" has been opening a lot of eyes.
At this time, as good as Zunino has looked, I have come around on Buxton. The videos I have seen and the accolades I read on him are getting me excited. I have high hopes for this kid and despite my earlier misgivings, I am on board the Buxton bandwagon.
So this sets us up for the 2013 draft and shows I am not to be trusted when it comes to predictions for the 2013 Draft.
The number 1 pick this year is projected to be an prep OF named Clint Frazier. He is supposed to have good power and tools but less speed and less bat speed than Buxton but better power. Next will probably be Appel to the Cubs. He is pitching well getting Strike Outs and going long in games. He could be #1 and nobody would blink too much. After that it gets screwy. There is a college 3B who projects to be an advanced bat: Kris Bryant, then there is another prep OF named Austin Meadows.
By the time Twins pick I am pretty sure Frazier, Bryant and Appel will be gone. In my mind they should have a choice of one of these guys:
The first Mock Draft I have seen shows the Twins taking Stanek. I am not fully on board with this as I think Manaea or Gray are better choices. All three of those guys are "safe" pitchers who are supposed to rise up the organization quickly. Most of the other analysis I have seen shows the Twins taking Manaea, Stanek or Grey, as the positional need for top pitchers is so great within the organization.
However, over at Minor League Ball they have run the first 2013 Mock draft. They have the Twins taking a High School catcher at #4: Jonathan Denney. This kid has been rising fast in the rankings and would be an eyebrow raising pick for the Twins.
In 2013, I am going to close my eyes and hope that Appel or Bryant might fall to the Twins. I don't expect that, so I am hopeful the Twins draft one of those pitchers and that pitcher turns out to be good. But like 2012, if the Twins scouts convince themselves that none of the pitchers are worth that draft position, then a prep catcher would be a very interesting fit. Its a long way to draft day and some prep MI candidate could rise up and take off in the rankings. If there was a good SS candidate worth taking at #4, the twins would be forced to look at him (or her) very hard. But Denney is one to watch. A good hitting prep catcher who is projected to stick at catcher is not an easy thing to find. And the Twins are pretty bare at the catcher position so this pick might raise eyebrows, but could be the best overall pick.