The rise and fall of prospects within weeks of a draft can get a bit ridiculous. Pundits favor a player's last couple of appearances over his body of work, essentially weighting small sample sizes as more important than long-term trends. It's all a game, and it's not worth buying into since A) we never know how organizations evaluate and prioritize talent, and B) every mock draft in the history of any sport ever has been wrong.
In baseball, however, there's the added factor of capped draft pools and risks relating to paying over slot. It's why nobody is really sure what Houston (or Miami, for that matter) will end up doing, even though we now that Carlos Rodon and Brady Aiken are the top two preferred talents available.
So, as pundits change their mind based off of reasons both legitimate and silly, I thought it might be useful to keep track of the more well-known mock drafts to see how the experts are tracking the Twins.
Note, 4 June
With the draft tomorrow, there seems to be a gathering consensus about the top of the draft - and not just with the Twins. Brady Aiken looks like the almost unanimous pick to go number one overall, and between Keith Law's second and third mocks and the Jim Caple mock there is no discrepancy. Some clearly think that, in the top four, it will be Conforto as the position player of choice instead of Jackson. Will Nola actually be taken ahead of Kolek?
|Date||Source||Twins Pick||Top Four Picks|
|March 9||MLB Draft Countdown (1.0)||Jeff Hoffman||Beede, Rodon, Kolek, Turner|
|March 10||Minor League Ball (1.0)||Tyler Kolek||Rodon, Hoffman, Gatewood, Beede|
|March 27||MLB Draft Countdown (2.0)||Jeff Hoffman||Beede, Rodon, Gordon, Kolek|
|May 9||Baseball America (1.0)||Nick Gordon||Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Finnegan|
|May 10||Through the Fence Baseball (8.0)||Tyler Kolek||Rodon, Gordon, Aiken, Beede|
|May 14||My MLB Draft||Jeff Hoffman||Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Beede|
|May 14||MLB Draft Insider (4.0)||Alex Jackson||Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Gordon|
|May 16||Baseball America (2.0)||Nick Gordon||Rodon, Jackson, Aiken, Freeland|
|May 16||Keith Law (1.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Jackson, Kolek, Rodon|
|May 16||Jonathan Mayo (1.0)||Nick Gordon||Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Jackson|
|May 19||MLB Draft Insider (5.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Jackson|
|May 19||Minor League Ball (2.0)||Nick Gordon||Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Jackson|
|May 25||Baseball America (3.0)||Tyler Kolek||Aiken, Jackson, Rodon, Pentecost|
|May 27||Keith Law (2.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Conforto|
|May 28||Jim Bowden||Kyle Freeland||Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Jackson|
|June 1||Baseball America (4.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Jackson, Kolek, Rodon|
|June 2||Jim Callis||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Conforto|
|June 3||Keith Law (3.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Conforto|
|June 3||USA Today||Tyler Kolek||Aiken, Jackson, Rodon, Nola|
|June 5||Baseball America (5.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Conforto|
|June 5||Keith Law (4.0)||Nick Gordon||Aiken, Rodon, Nola, Conforto|