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I'll Stop the World and Melt With You - On Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes, your bullpen has problems. Other times, your team is in contention for a Wild Card spot, steaming full speed ahead toward the trading deadline with no indication that the bullpen will be fixed. Sometimes you meet the Orioles in the playoffs, and your bullpen (or lack thereof) predictably blows up, and you become the laughingstock of the nation. However, we're not the 2014 Tigers -- yet. Let's take a look at the first point: the bullpen having problems.

The bullpen has problems. We all know it and have come to accept it by now. We can look at bullpen ERA (of which the Twins are posting a 7th-worst 4.01), or bullpen strikeouts per nine innings (of which the Twins are posting a major-league worst 6.17), or LOB% (a harrowing 27th-worst.) In fact, perhaps the simplest of sabermetric counting stats, WAR, lists the Twins as having the 27th-worst bullpen, with a grand WAR total of: 0.0. That's right; with an absolute stud like Glen Perkins in the bullpen, and a proven starter in Trevor May, the rest of the relief corps has been so god-awful, they've righted the ship back to pure, unadulterated mediocrity.

This article, however, is to go one step further and really torture ourselves over the general incompetence of the bullpen. Going back to counting stats such as WAR, relief pitching -- outside of the closing pitcher -- is very under-represented with counting statistics. There are holds, but nobody pays attention to holds. There are blown saves, but they don't tell us WHY the save was blown.This takes us to a stat called Shutdowns, and its sister stat, Meltdowns.

These stats were derived with the intention of simplifying saves and applying them to all relief pitchers. Essentially, the statistic uses Win Probability Added: if a pitcher enters and increases the team's WPA by 6%, they get a shutdown. If they do the opposite, and decrease the team's chances of winning by 6%, they get a meltdown. Straightforward stuff that applies to all relief pitchers.

"I see where this is going," you're now saying. "Are we 27th-worst in both categories?"

Short answer: No.

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the MLB with 119 shutdowns by their relievers this season. The Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals, are all among the Top 10. And rounding out the top ten teams: your Minnesota Twins, who are 10th-best in the major leagues with 83 shutdowns on the season.

Success in this department can be attributed to a few key players: Glen Perkins, who has 23 shutdowns and only 5 meltdowns on the year (and is on pace for career highs and lows in both categories, respectively.) Blaine Boyer had a nice run in the middle of the season and collected 13 shutdowns, second on the team.

Long answer: We're still very bad.

On the flip side of the statistic, despite being a Top-10 team in the shutdown department, the Twins are 10th-worst when it comes to avoiding meltdowns. The Angels and Royals, unsurprisingly, have the fewest meltdowns in the bigs, with only 27 on the season. Atlanta is the worst team with 63 meltdowns on the year. The Twins fall to 19th-best with 45 meltdowns on the season.

The blame on this one: Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. What a surprise! While the Twins eventually rectified Thompson's detriment to the team, and while the man with the worst SD/MD ratio -- Tim Stauffer, with just one shutdown and four meltdowns -- was released, the worst offender remains on the team. Boyer has a team-leading 11 meltdowns on the year, which -- brace yourself -- is second only to Evan Scribner for the most meltdowns in major league baseball. This effectively means that the man who's routinely been given the 8th inning for most of this season is the second-least effective relief pitcher in the majors in the "keeping your team in the ballgame" department.

So where is the silver lining in this stat for the Twins? Outside of Perkins, there isn't much to be proud of; only J.R. Graham and Trevor May have yet to have a bullpen meltdown this season. But don't call for Graham to start pitching more often to fix the problems -- he, Boyer, and Perkins are the team's most called-upon relievers, and each have between 41 and 42 innings pitched this year.

So how does this factor into the trading deadline? Well, it's fairly obvious; the Twins need more reliable relievers, and not just in your traditional low-ERA, high-strikeout guys. Here's a list of the Top 25 qualified relievers, ordered by most shutdowns:

The 25 Most Shutdown-y Relievers.

The Top 25 Shutdown-y Dudes.

As you can see, there are a lot of huge names on this list, many of them untradeable. In this regard, it looks as though Mark Melancon -- the man we saw last night -- is 2015's most dependable pitcher, as he's only melted down once all season in addition to leading baseball in shutdowns with 29. You also have to be careful; some of the pitchers have high shutdown numbers (like Brad Boxberger) coupled with high meltdown numbers (nine, which is most in the top 25.) Out of this list, who would you most like to see the Twins target at the deadline? Is there another pitcher you'd rather have join the team? Why are shutdowns and meltdowns, in your opinion, the dumbest statistic ever? Let us know in the comments below.