In order to get a sense of who teams will take in the draft, many media types will look at a team’s history in order to see if there are any patterns. For example, the Theo Epstein-led Cubs have loved college hitters the last few years. The Atlanta Braves, on the other hand, love taking high school prospects. That is not to say that these teams only pick these player—Esptein and the Cubs took Albert Almora out of high school in 2012, while the Braves took Sean Gilmartin and Jason Hursh out of college in 2011 and 2013—BUT, many teams do show a preference.
With three picks in the first thirty seven selections the Twins would be a prime candidate for pundits to look back at their draft history, but in order to do so you cannot look at the recent draft history of the Minnesota Twins. Instead, you have to look at the collective history of the Twins new front office, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.
So, let’s do that.
Derek Falvey
Cleveland Indians: Assistant Director of Baseball Operations 2009-2011, Co-Director of Baseball Operations, 2011-2016
Falvey Draft History
Draft Year | Indians Selection | Player's School | Draft Location |
---|---|---|---|
Draft Year | Indians Selection | Player's School | Draft Location |
2009 | Alex White, RHP | North Carolina | 15 |
2010 | Drew Pomeranz, LHP | Mississippi | 5 |
2011 | Fransisco Lindor, SS | Monteverde Academy | 8 |
2012 | Tyler Naquin, OF | Texas A&M | 15 |
2013 | Clint Frazier, OF | Loganvilel (Ga) High School | 5 |
2014 | Bradley Zimmer, OF | San Francisco | 21 |
2015 | Brady Aiken, LHP | IMG Academy (Fla) | 17 |
2016 | Will Benson OF | The Westminster Schools (Ga) | 14 |
Of course an aspect of these sorts of drafts is the important element of who happened to fall to the Indians, a worry the Twins do not have with the first overall pick this year. With this in mind, in Derek Falvey’s time the Indians drafted three advanced pitchers (Aiken had graduated high school and entered a sports academy), three high school up-the-middle types (C-SS-CF/OF) and two college up the middle types.
Falvey had more control within the Indians’ front office starting with the 2012 Draft, seeing the team primarily take outfielders in that time. The Twins have been linked to a number of players that fit this pattern of advanced arms or best position player available, but one player who does not fit Falvey’s personal draft history is Hunter Greene.
Thad Levine
Texas Rangers: Assistant General Manager, 2005-2016
Levine Draft History
Draft Year | Player | Position | School | Draft Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
Draft Year | Player | Position | School | Draft Position |
2016 | Cole Ragans | LHP | North Florida Christian (Tallahassee, Fla.) | 30 |
2015 | Dillon Tate | RHP | UC Santa Barbara | 4 |
2013 | Alex Gonzalez | RHP | Oral Roberts | 23 |
2013 | Travis Demeritte | SS | Winder-Barrow High School, Winder, Ga. | 30 |
2012 | Lewis Brinson | CF | Coral Springs (Fla.) High School | 29 |
2011 | Kevin Matthews | LHP | Richmond Hill High School | 33 |
2010 | Luke Jackson | RHP | Calvary Christian, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. | 45 |
2010 | Kellin Deglan | C | Langley High School, British Columbia | 22 |
2010 | Jake Skole | OF | Blessed Trinity HS, Woodstock, Ga. | 15 |
2009 | Matt Purke | LHP | Klein High School, Spring, Texas | 14 |
2008 | Justin Smoak | 1B | Univ. of South Carolina | 11 |
2007 | Blake Beavan | RHP | Irving (Texas) HS | 17 |
2007 | Michael Main | RHP | Deland (Fla.) HS | 24 |
2006 | Kasey Kiker | LHP | Russell County HS, (Phenix City, Ala) | 12 |
2005 | John Mayberry | RF | Stanford | 19 |
Thad Levine has a bit more history to sort through here, with 14 first round picks since 2005. In that time the Rangers drafted 7 high school pitchers, 2 college pitchers, 4 high school up-the-middle types, and 2 college batters at corner positions.
With more data to work with, Levine is a bit more all over the board than Falvey. Still, a pattern of high school talent shows through. Still, the Rangers were not afraid to take college pitching, even as high as the number four pick in 2015.
Thoughts
In their time with the Indians and Rangers, respectively, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine showed a few patterns. Overall they both have a history with high school athletes who could play premium positions, even if some of the outfielders drafted eventually moved to corner positions. Both Falvey and Levine took good college pitching when it was available, although Falvey stayed away from high school arms whereas Levine did not.
You have to be careful when using past patterns, as they do not prove what will happen. While Levine and Falvey had input in their previous positions, they were not in charge the way they are now. They also did not have the first overall pick like they will have this year.
A college arm like Kyle Wright or Brendan McKay at first overall would not be out of character for either Falvey or Levine. Neither would an up-the-middle type like Royce Lewis, who also fits into the deal making strategy we have previously outlined. Brendan McKay as a first baseman or first baseman Pavin Smith is something Levine has a history with, although Falvey has preferred more athletic hitters overall. High school arms like Hunter Greene, McKenzie Gore, and Shane Baz are, again, something the more experienced Levine is accustomed to. Falvey does have experience with a young, although post-high school pitcher as well.
So while we cannot yet say who the Twins will pick, we certainly know that the players we have profiled do fit within the patterns of the Twins’ new front office, which help fuel the rumors that the Twins value up to six players equally going into the last week before the draft.