Twinkie Town

Gardy picks his outfield of choice

2008-12-04T15:29:49Z

Gardy picks his outfield of choice

Howard Sinker's blog has a nice discussion of this issue. According to Howard, Gardy said he wants Span, Gomez and Cuddyer as his starting outfield in 2009. My question is, why would you show your cards before making a deal with Delmon? Perhaps they already have an agreement in principle to move him.

Twins Offer Arbitration to Dennys Reyes

2008-12-01T22:34:29Z

Twins Offer Arbitration to Dennys Reyes

Courtesy of Joe Christensen, at the Strib online.

Moving Young to Help Span?

2008-12-01T13:59:32Z

Moving Young to Help Span?

This drives me absolutely insane. Here's a tidbit from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus, just what's specific to the Twins:

"The Twins would like to trade outfielder Delmon Young for a left-side infielder, which they feel would have the added benefit of opening up a spot in the lineup for outfielder Denard Span in left."

Sure, it makes perfect sense. But where is he getting the information? Nobody knows, because he doesn't list his sources. It could be information from an inside source, but if this were the case this exact same information would be surfacing elsewhere...and no my knowledge, it hasn't.

Still...it's an educated statement. I'm looking forward to seeing how accurate it is.

Twins Off-Season Question #3: Who Gets Offered Arbitration?

2008-12-01T13:39:44Z

We'll find out today.

What Do We Have?
How Much Money Do We Have to Spend?

It's assumed that Adam Everett and Eddie Guardado won't be offered arbitration. Neither one would return a compensatory draft pick, and their retention would be doing the Twins no favors in terms of talent nor fiscal responsibility.

Which brings us to our final two free agents: Dennys Reyes and Nick Punto.

I can see the Twins going either way, on both of these guys. Both have roles they could play on next year's club, and both have been lucky enough to have the organization state that they'd like to retain them. So today we'll see exactly how accurate those assertations were. The primary, and really the only, difference between Reyes and Punto is that Eat at Dennys qualified as a Type-B free agent. Since Punto hasn't qualified, there's really nothing to make the Twins feel like they need to get into the arbitration process with him. Minnesota can bring Punto back quite easily without having to expresss interest by today. Kelly Theiser agrees.

Today's excitement, then, will come from finding out by 11pm Central tonight whether the Twins have offered Dennys Reyes arbitration. It's not exactly The Johan Sweepstakes, Part II.

Ultimately, whether any of these guys come back or not won't have a big impact on the team's successes (or lack thereof) in 2009. Today is about roster spots, and the possibility of a sandwich pick next June.

Minor League Report...November 30, 2008

2008-11-30T16:40:46Z

Greetings from the Dominican Republic (well, actually a bit northwest of there in a western suburb of Minneapolis)!

Gigantes del Cibao has a half game lead with a 20-14 record. Their leadoff hitter is Alexi Casilla who has been on fire. Prior to yesterday's game in which he went 3 for 4 with a double and walk, Casilla was hitting .395/.500/.579 in 38 at bats. He had scored 10 runs with a double, 2 home runs, 9 rbi, 8 walks and 7 strikeouts. Julio DePaula is another member of Gigantes with a Twins connection. DePaula has appeared in 20 games (24 innings) with a 3-1 record, 4.88ERA and 15K/10BB. Twins farmhand Estarlin De Los Santos has seen limited playing time, hitting .083/.083/.083 in 12 at bats.

Leones del Escogido has a 16-19 record, 4.5 games behing Gigantes. Carlos Gomez has been splitting time in centerfield, appearing in 12 games with 47 at bats. Gomez is hitting .255/.352/.404 with 2 doubles, a triple, 1 home run, 12 runs scored, 4 rbi and 7 stolen bases in 9 attempts. Gomez has struck out 11 times with 5 walks. Former Twin, Tony Batista, is also with Escogido...hitting .282/.352/.460 with 10 doubles, 4 home runs and 28 rbi in 124 at bats.

Armando Gabino has made five early appearances (3.0 innings) with Aguilas, who is 2.0 games out with a 18-16 record. Gabino has a 9.00ERA with 2K/1BB.

After hitting .325/.389/.514 in the Southern League this past summer, former Twin Doug Deeds has appeared in 10 games with Azucareros...hitting .200/.200/.286 in 35 at bats.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

2008-11-27T20:57:02Z

via www.bestdentalanswers.com

Updates From Joe C.

2008-11-26T21:54:13Z

Updates From Joe C.

Over at his Strib blog, Joe Christensen outlines a couple of things to keep us up-to-date with the Twins as we enter the holiday:

* "Little dialogue" between the Twins and the Padres right now. This means (hopefully) that there's not as much interest in Khalil Greene as we worried. Phew!

* Marginal process is being made with Casey Blake, but it's progress still.

* There will probably be more action after Monday's arbitration deadline. Will the Twins offer Dennys Reyes arbitration in hopes of getting a sandwich pick?

* Twins' interest in Type-A free agents might grow (to existance) if certain guys aren't offered arbitration. The weekend mantra: Things will start happening Monday.

Stirring the Pot: Rafael Furcal?

2008-11-26T16:23:16Z

Stirring the Pot: Rafael Furcal?

There's long been a "mystery team" involved in the running for Dodgers' free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. While the A's still appear to be the front-runner, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors believes the "mystery team" could be the Indians...or the Twins.

Nomar Garciaparra

2008-11-26T14:38:23Z

One last hurrah?

Last Wednesday, Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN only gave Nomah a 26% chance of playing in 2009. He points to last winter, when a number of the game's stalwarts were unable to find jobs--guys like Kenny Lofton, Sammy Sosa and, of course, all-time home run record holder Barry Bonds. This year's crop of veteran ambassadors to the game is no less prestigious, with the futures of Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas and Moises Alou in the balance, but if any of them were to find a job with the Twins, Nomar Garciaparra might be the only one with anything to offer.

Before we even get to what he has to offer, there's the miniature obstacle of his health. Garciaparra gravitates toward the disabled list, like Nick Punto to the kid's table at Thanksgiving. He hasn't played a full season since 2003, and over the last five seasons has averaged 88 games a year. Just to drive the point home, as far as I can tell this is a complete list of his trips to the DL since 2004.

March 31 - June 9, 2004: Right Achilles Tendonitis
April 21 - August 5, 2005: Torn Left Groin Muscle
April 4 - April 22, 2006: Strained Ribcage Muscle
July 30 - August 9, 2006: Right Knee Sprain
August 14 - September 4, 2007: Strained Left Calf
March 30 - April 16, 2008: Microfracture in Right Hand
April 26 - July 4, 2008: Strained Left Calf
August 1 - August 12, 2008: Strained Medial Collateral Ligament

Turning 36 in July, and after three stints on the disabled list in 2008, is it worth using that 25th roster spot for a guy who might be better serving his career by riding off into the sunset? Maybe not, but there's a definitive role he could fill, and it's an area of need for the Twins.

Over the last three years, Garciaparra has hit southpaws to the tune of .289/.368/.502, with 11 home runs in 235 at-bats. Whatever the case is, he's been seeing the ball better from left-handed pitchers, because he's not only hitting for more power but he has better strike zone control as well (29 walks against just 20 strikeouts). So knowing what we know about his history of injuries, how could the Twins protect him, and still find a role for him?

That's where it gets tricky, because guys of Nomar's stature aren't always keen to play platoon and mentor roles and that's really the only role he'd be playing for the Twins. He wouldn't get any starts against right-handed pitchers, wouldn't get more than a handful of starts in the field, and as a result would be looking at a season of maybe 250 plate appearances tops...85% of which he'd be getting through starts versus southpaws as a designated hitter. The rest would come through late game pinch-hitting opportunities and, when absolutely necessary, maybe a couple of starts in the field.

Finally, there's the issue of money. For all of this to work, Garciaparra would have to not only be willing to take a diminished role on an up-and-coming club, but he'd have to be willing to accept a reasonable contract as a result. I'd offer one year for $2 million, plus incentives for playing time and results.

There are a number of good decisions for this organization to make over the next three or four months. I'm not convinced that signing Nomar (NOMAH!) Garciaparra is one of those good decisions, but at the right price he's still an interesting consideration.

Off-Season Round Table

2008-11-26T13:07:21Z

Off-Season Round Table

Head over to the Alex-run Twins Territory to check out week 2 of his off-season round table, including Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, myself, and of course Alex.

Baseball America: Twins Top 10 Prospects

2008-11-25T20:30:39Z

Baseball America: Twins Top 10 Prospects

It's a subscription read for the entire article, but this is the list:

10. OF, Angel Morales
9. RHP, Carlos Gutierrez
8. RHP, Kevin Mulvey
7. RHP, Shooter Hunt
6. RHP, Anthony Swarzak
5. 3B, Danny Valencia
4. LHP, Jose Mijares
3. C, Wilson Ramos
2. OF, Ben Revere
1. OF, Aaron Hicks

Thoughts?

Who Could the Twins Lose In the Rule 5 Draft?

2008-11-25T15:21:44Z

Well, let's go through the rules first. I'm going to take it for granted that you understand players on the 40-Man roster are protected.

Really, the biggest and most basic thing you should know is that players 18 or younger (when drafted or signed) are exempt from the Rule 5 draft for five years; players 19 or older are exempt for four years. There are different costs associated with how the drafting team in the Rule 5 uses their picks, and there are rules about how long players must be active in order to be eligible for the draft, but to begin to scan for players left exposed by the Twins this is all we need for now.

In previous years the Twins have used the Rule 5 draft to grab guys like Ryan-Rowland Smith and Alejandro Machado. Of course we know the Twins scored big with Johan Santana (in the long long ago of 2000), but thanks to Wikipedia, there are a number of guys who have posted some good (or at the very least, star-crossed and useful) careers after being taken in the Rule 5: Bobby Bonilla, Shane Mack, George Bell, Dave Hollins, and Willie Hernandez. More recently, in addition to Santana, Shane Victorino and Josh Hamilton have been selections.

Last week after the Twins made seven more additions to their 40-Man roster, leaving just one open slot, a lot of guys were put in a position of instability. Minnesota's farm system stocks more talent this off-season than it has in recent memory, and for the first time in as long as I can remember there will be a position player or two that I'm concerned could get taken.

A team can never cover all of its assets, but in one sense it's a good problem to have. Nevertheless there are a number of prospects exposed, and with the Rule 5 approaching with the Winter Meetings in December, the Twins are leaving some tempting bait on the hook.

Jay Rainville, RHP
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004

Rainville had a good start, rolling through his first three stops in roughly his first 14 months in the Minnesota system. Baseball American ranked him as the Twins' 8th best prospect going into 2006, which was also the year he lost completely due to surgery on his shoulder. He had a good comeback year in 2007 in Fort Myers, and after hot start there in '08 was promoted to double-A New Britain. As a 22-year old there he struggled sometimes, posting a 5.78 ERA in 123 innings, but in addition to his strikeouts dropping and continuing to be a fly-ball pitcher, he also lost a bit of his command. Rainville doesn't project as a front-line starter by any stretch of the imagination right now, but he's still a very talented arm. A year ago I might have predicted he'd debut for the Twins sometime late in 2009. Now I'd probably push that back to 2010, but a strong campaign this next summer could alter that as well. Jay is just one of the pitchers I'd have preferred to be added to the 40-Man roster in place of Drew Butera.

Erik Lis, 1B/LF
2009 Age: 25
Drafted: 9th Round, 2005

Out of the position players available in the Minnesota farm system, Lis is the one that could be drawing the most interest. In college he was a hitting machine, and even in his first two stops with the Twins the power was on full display. In '07 in Fort Myers he had a decent season, and as a result spent all of last summer in New Britain. He didn't display the power in terms of home runs, but the bigger concern for me was how often he was (or wasn't) getting on base. While the walk rates continued to drop, the strikeout rates were sneaking higher. He hit a lot of ground balls this season, and he hasn't been a guy who hits a lot of line drives, either. Lis did miss the last portion of the season with a shoulder injury, so there is some forgiveness. But with no defense to speak of, his bat is his ticket to success. At 24 he wasn't young for double-A, and he didn't exactly rake there, so it's not as though the Twins are exposing a can't-miss prospect...but he's still a hitter, and hitters are always in demand. I'd still prefer to see what he could do in Rochester.

Kyle Waldrop, RHP
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004

With this move it seems the Twins have given up on the compensatory pick they drafted after losing LaTroy Hawkins. Waldrop missed all of 2008 with shoulder issues, which means his 59 innings in double-A back in '07 as a 21-year old could be the last vision the organization has of him. And that vision wasn't really promising. A 5.34 ERA in those 59 innings, along with 74 hits, is a shame to have as a departing audition because in spite of his mediocre stuff had been effective in prior stops. He's not a strikeout guy, but when healthy had good control and did a pretty solid job of keeping the ball in the park. I think it's too early to give up on Waldrop, as I believe his skills could be useful at the back of a rotation or in the bullpen, but I have to think that if he's taken he will simply be a casualty of a farm system that's littered with pitching prospects.

Yohan Pino, RHP
2009 Age: 25
Signed: Venezuela, 2004

Pino's curious success has hit a stumbling block at double-A. The strikeouts are down as better hitters aren't as baffled by a sub-par fastball, and he's been getting knocked around a little bit. Without great stuff and at 25, he'll be too old for any success to really make an imprint unless he would be moved to Rochester next year, but with the Twins constantly moving him from the rotation to the bullpen and back again it's clear that even they don't know what to do with him. Everything has been stood on its head since his promotion to the Rock Cats, and his exposure doesn't bother me as much as it does with a few of these other pitchers, but I also believe that consistency and confidence can do a lot for a player. An organization showing a little confidence in a guy like Pino, with unimpressive stuff, could give him the motivation he needs to find the next level. It's unlikely, but it's not unheard of.

David Winfree, OF
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 13th Round, 2003

Next to Lis, Winfree is the second position player I can see being taken. He was shifted to the outfield this year, making room for Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, but he managed to show improvements. In his second full season in double-A New Britain, Winfree cut down on the strikeouts, significantly increased how often he walked and added 41 points to his isolated power (.159 to .200)...all in spite of losing 15 points off his batting average, his OPS was up 35 points, to 769. His lines aren't outstanding, and compared to guys like Matt Tolbert he could come off looking like a younger incarnation of him, but there's some raw power there. Matt Macri posted a .205 ISO in double-A, but at age 25. Winfree is three years younger, and he's shown marked improvement from '07 to '08. In some ways Winfree's progression is still on a clear forward trajectory, and in that way can come off as a bigger oversight than not protecting Erik Lis. I don't like his exposure at all.

Ryan Mullins, LHP
2009 Age: 25
Drafed: 3rd Round, 2005

Mullins is a southpaw who has a history of keeping the ball on the ground and, more importantly, in the park. In late 2007 the Twins gave him a shot in triple-A, and he was knocked around in four starts, so they stuck him back with the Rock Cats for the whole of 2008. He wasn't as good in New Britain his second time around, and at 24 he doesn't have a lot of time to wait around hoping to be promoted, but it's not like he was horrible. A left-hander with decent velocity who can keep the ball on the ground is the profile of a pitcher that can almost always find work, and I have a hard time believing the Twins simply couldn't find a spot for him. He's no ace, just like every other pitcher on this list, but it certainly seems the organization has arms of higher priority. Again: Drew Butera?

Zach Ward, RHP
2009 Age: 25
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2005

Ward came over from Cincinnati in the Kyle Lohse trade (remember all the Zach Ward 7-0 talk?), and there's one asset that's worth keeping him for: he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Over his last four stops in the minors, he's induced ground balls anywhere between 55 and 71 percent of the time. In 367.1 minor league innings he's allowed just 12 home runs. Control was an issue this season, as he walked about 12% of his hitters, but historically he's never been that erratic, and even though he's not really a strikeout pitcher he still sent down 81 men in 93 innings, and that's not bad. Right now the only thing working against him is his age, but that could be solved by a promotion to the Rochester bullpen. If he slips through the drafted unselected, the Twins will have gotten away with one.

Matthew Fox, RHP
2009 Age: 26
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004

Superior strikeout numbers in 67 innings in '04 and '06 sandwiched a lost season in 2005 due to labrum and rotor-cuff surgery. The result of allowing Eddie Guardado to walk (the first time), Minnesota kept Fox in rookie ball for his return in 2006, and he delivered...big time: 1.12 WHIP, 0.22 HR/9, 10.27 K/9. The Twins tempered their excitement and moved him up just one level the following year, and shifting between the rotation and the bullpen in Beloit he still posted promising numbers; and he should have, he was 24. At 25 this last summer he was finally moved to Fort Myers in high-A, and in 14 starts and 18 relief appearances he still struck out 99 in 117.1 innings. Fox has pitched well, but Minnesota has refused to rush him, and as a result he's far too old for his competition, and therefore it's hard to judge whether or not he's as good as his numbers. Fox could turn into a solid relief option for someone out there, but it seems like the concerns about his injuries are too much to keep him from being exposed by the Twins.

Tim Lahey, RHP
2009 Age: 27
Drafted: 20th Round, 2004

After being drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft, number one overall, I'll be shocked if Lahey is not taken again. He's a monster of a man who can induce ground balls, but he struggled a bit in Rochester this last year. His peripherals insist he was better than his 5.43 ERA, and he missed a few bats, but control has always been an issue with Lahey, walking 3.47 men per nine innings in his minor league career. Still, he's an arm that some teams (Cubs, Phillies) see as major-league ready, but apparently the Twins are content with their internal options without him. Lahey is almost certain to be taken.

There are other players available as well: Juan Portes, Matt Moses. But those nine above are all players who will definitely be getting some consideration from organizations around the league. You can never tell when you'll bull a Bonilla or a Santana out of the Rule 5 hat, but whoever we lose will be replaced, probably, by someone we've plucked from another system. And that's where you hope your external scouting department is better than those who made the internal options on who to protect.

40-Man Roster Additions

2008-11-19T23:21:25Z

40-Man Roster Additions

From Joe Christensen.

Morneau, Mauer Take 2nd, 4th in MVP Voting

2008-11-18T19:30:33Z

Dustin Pedroia came out the big winner today, a BWAA decision I actually can't argue with, but the Twins had a nice showing themselves. Morneau recieved 257 votes, behind Pedroia's 317 to take second place in the AL, and, perhaps even more hearteningly, Mauer took fourth place with 188 votes.

It's nice to see Mauer get some recognition in that list. it's been long speculated in the corners of the internet that Mauer has bene maybe more deserving of the national accolade mroe focused on Morneau, and its good to see Mauer's truely one in a generation talent get a little more national play.

Interestingly enough, with Kevin Youkilis finishing 3rd in the voting, the top four spots were horded by Red Sox and Twins.

Also, Jason Bartlett got one 5th place vote good for 6 points. I know he's a good defender and an nice overall player but really, what's this world coming to.

Casey Blake: Your Next Minnesota Twin?

2008-11-16T23:17:59Z

Over at the Strib, LEN III believes the Twins could level an official offer this week. Meanwhile, Kelly Theiser at MLB.com reports the organization is already in discussions with Blake's agent Jim McDowell.

This has to be just a little bit of poetic justice, right? Although the Twins didn't actually draft Casey Blake. And even though they already had a third baseman in place who was only one year older. And they took a chance on Blake, twice. Hmm...this isn't quite the "full circle" I expected.

I know that Blake spent less than three years in the Minnesota farm system, which could be construed as "we let one go" when we see how he performed for triple-A clubs Salt Lake and Edmonton: 1150 at-bats, .311/.389/.499, 41 homers, 71 doubles, 127 walks, 203 strikeouts. But the Twins still didn't keep him around, and he landed with the Indians as a free agent at age 29. In 2004 he had his first truly good offensive season, which happened to coincide with the last good (see: full) offensive season for one Cordel Leonard Koskie.

Now there's a very real chance that Blake, at age 35, could return to Minnesota and, quite likey, close out his career with the team that will be charged as the one that let him get away. In 2008, Pecota projected Blake to perform as a typical 34-year old third baseman in decline, with a .264/.333/.432 median line; instead he nearly hit their 75th percentile...or essentially, over his head. Pecota hasn't yet released forecasts for 2009, but suffice it to say it's likely they'll still be expecting a significant drop in performance. Bill James, who included Casey Blake in his '09 projections for the Dodgers, looked into his crystal ball and saw .259/.336/.432, with 12 homers in 336 at-bats.

Should the Twins move forward with Blake, and right now it certainly seems that they are, they're doing so with the idea that he'll be able to fill a hole at third base for at least a year or two...until someone named either Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia is ready to step in. Hopefully.

Looking back over the last five years, Blake's played significant time at the hot corner in three of them, and while he's never been a true defensive whiz by any stretch of the imagination he's certainly reliable. Every year he'll make a handful of great plays, make a few outs by getting to balls outside of his zone, but getting to his age as a third baseman when does mediocre start to take a turn for the worse? I understand that it's not necessarily the glove or the arm that the Twins are looking at here, but rather the idea of an everyday third baseman who can provide decent offense from the right side of the plate. Otherwise, the team would just be platooning Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris.

So it's not the possible dropoff in the field that cautions me against Casey Blake. It's the offense. Although other than being a bit more aggressive around the plate (check his percentages for swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone here), taking a glance through the numbers there's nothing that stands out too much from his recent history.

Year	BB%	K%	ISO	LD%
2005	7.6	22.2	.197	20.9
2006	10.1	23.2	.197	23.2
2007	8.4	20.9	.167	17.7
2008	8.4	22.4	.188	22.1

The biggest factor here for me isn't even the money, because I know the Twins aren't going to break the bank. The biggest factor is simply age. If we were discussing the Twins signing this exact player at age 30 or 31, it'd be a no-brainer. But we're playing the odds on a 35-year old.

In some ways it's a perfect situation. With the Twins in the unique position of actually having prospects in the system who could potentially take over third base in the next 12 to 24-months, they're able to look at a player that doesn't constitute a long-term committment. They're able to look at a player who can bridge a gap to the future. And while Casey Blake is that player, I'm still wondering if that's the best direction for the Twins to take. It's not the player that concerns me, it's the direction.

Ultimately this direction will come down to two things: money and performance. Before Blake even steps up to the plate in a Minnesota jersey, his tenure with the team will be judged on his contract. Then he'll be judged on how he actually plays. Bizarre, but true.

Now we just have to wait and see what happens before we start complaining. Or applauding, depending how optimistic you are.

ESPN reports: The Braves are out of the Peavy sweepstakes

2008-11-15T20:34:25Z

ESPN reports: The Braves are out of the Peavy sweepstakes

Why am I posting this on a Twins blog? Because the central figure in the Peavy talks was Yunel Escobar, the Braves rising star shortstop. If he is not going to San Diego, might the Twins be able to pry him away? It's at least still a possibility.

Twins Off-Season Question #2: How Much Money Do We Have to Spend?

2008-11-13T01:19:17Z

In case you missed it:

#1: What Do We Have?

I think the easy answer to this question is: it depends. We definitely know there's a little bit of money available, but it's always just a little bit more complicated than that, isn't it? There've already been a number of estimates made, and the good news is that all of them have the Twins coming in somewhere between $52 and $61 million, with only a couple of spots to fill:

Star Tribune: 26 players, $61 million
MLB Trade Rumors: 24 players, $57 million
Twinkie Town: 20 players, $56.7 million
Twins Geek: 22 players, $52.35 million

Over the last ten years as the Twins have pumped more money into their players on the field, they've still managed to remain one of baseball's most efficient clubs in terms of dollars per win. From 1999 through 2008, opening day payroll has never been higher than 18th in the league, and it sat between 18th and 20th from 2003 through 2007. In 2008, when the organization basically decided to pick a direction and run with it right or wrong, payroll fell back to just over $62 million on opening day.

Minnesota, and indeed--any team in baseball, will never go into the off-season with a public hard line on how much money they'll spend. For obvious reasons, it's just not a good idea. So we extrapolate; from recent history, from the market, from looking what what we did a couple of weeks ago and understanding what the team already has, and from what the expectations are for the near future.

Recent History: Over the last six seasons the Twins have an average opening day salary of approximately $62 million, but that's not exactly the best way of looking at it. From '99 through '03 the Twins more than tripled their payroll, maxing out at about $63.5 million in 2003 (the last year guys like Rick Reed, Joe Mays, Eric Milton, LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado were with the team and pulling down significant dollars) before dropping $12 million off the top for '04. But after shedding some weight, from '04 through '07 Minnesota raised payroll 5%, 13% and 13% again...before, again, shedding some weight. It's a cycle a team like Minnesota is bound to go through every three to five years.

Market: Teams like Boston and New York (both of them) have, on the record, stated that they want to be a bit more frugal when it comes to dishing out dollars on free agents, but it's all relative. This year's free agent market, just like all the others, will be dictated by what the wealthier teams do with the best...but the Twins never play into this market too much. They know what they're looking for, know what they're willing to pay, and while they can be lured into a few poor decisions with bargain-bin veterans, they aren't committing themselves to devastating multi-year contracts. So the good news is that the market won't kill this team, not in the present or in the future; the bad news, if you see it that way, is that this isn't a team that will make a big splash in free agency.

What We Already Have: Good and young starters, some good cornerstones for an offense, and a great closer. There's depth in pitching and the outfield, in the majors and the minors. This means money could/should be focused on the left side of the infield, the bullpen (even more important with the loss of Pat Neshek for 2009), as well as players currently under team control (this doesn't mean under contract).

The Future: This team won 88 games, and was good enough that 162 contests wasn't sufficient to decide the regular season. With the new stadium opening in 2010, next is all that stands between then and now...and because the organization will want a very competetive squad on the field in '10, you know they'll want to be ramping things up in '09. (Where prudent, of course.)

While the only thing that's guaranteed is that the Twins won't spend less money on their opening day payroll than they did last season, there is no guarantee that that number will grow for opening day 2009. But making an educated guess, I have to believe the Twins can add another ten to fifteen million to what they're already committed to, bringing team salary into the lower $70's. In fact, if we're being bold, we could go so far as to think Minnesota could open the year with an $80 million dollar payroll. But that's if we're bold, and it's a long shot.

Reality is that, if the organization feels like it's money well spent, opening day payroll could be around $70 million. It's realistic and doesn't expect too much, even if the biggest bumps come from money on fresh contracts to players under team control. That would mean the team could add somewhere between $9 and $15 million, depending on which figures are most accurate.

Now that we have a fairly realistic picture of how much money the Twins could spend, here's my question for you: will they?

Exclusive Q&A with John Manuel--editor of Baseball America

2008-11-11T05:30:11Z

I'm pleased to announce that John Manuel has agreed to answer my questions related to prospects in the Twins system. John is the co-editor in chief of Baseball America with Will Lingo, which means he and Will run the editorial department for that publication, including assigning analysts and other editorial resources to teams' and editing all their work. He also covers some of the teams as a regular analyst would, including the Twins. Last year, his Twins coverage was quite controversial, but suffice it to say he got the last laugh. This year he is just about to release his Twins top 20 list. Obviously, he can't pre-announce anything, but you might be able to read between the lines to see how he rates some of Twins prospects I ask about.

Thanks for agreeing to do this Q&A John. I believe you have a better handle
on the Twins system than any other analyst.

Q: Last year you shocked the blogosphere by picking Nick Blackburn as the
top prospect in the system. Most of us liked his numbers, but figured he
was too old and did not have as high of a ceiling as some others, for
example Tyler Robertson. Obviously, you got the last laugh on that one. Is
there a similar prospect this year--a late bloomer who will ascend the list
because of major league readiness?

A: Blackburn was fun to watch. I was shocked at how much outrage there was, frankly--lots of people calling me crazy. I was quite glad he had the kind of year he had--he was a No. 3/No. 4 starter for a team that just missed winning a division. That's about what his ceiling is, I thought, and he might just be better down the line, which would be nice. I'm happy for him. As for this year, no, I think the Twins have a much more defined line of who their top prospects are and who they are not. I don't think there are any huge surprises in the Twins' system. I like several of their 2008 draftees such as Bobby Lanigan, Michael Tonkin and B.J. Hermsen more than most, but I don't think that's a surprise for BA. Late bloomers? Luke Hughes qualifies, but looks unlikely for the top 10. Matt Tolbert still qualifies but also won't make the top 10; no one fits the same profile this year. Sorry for the lack of drama.

Q: On my list, I have a lot of really young players near the top: Wilson
Ramos, Angel Morales, Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, Robertston and Deolis Guerra
are all in my top 10 and all under 20 years old. How do you rank these
young guys? To what extent do you give special treatment to guys who are
young for their level of play? (Editor's note: I have since revised my ranking of Guerra.)

A: I think you're high on several players there. Clearly it's good to be young, young for a level, also nice to have a young guy who hasn't been exposed. But our scouting reports on Robertson, Guerra and Morales aren't glowing enough to put them in the top 10. Robertson's the closest, but he was throwing 83 mph in his second-to-last start. Scouts have long had questions about his arm action (by long I mean since high school, way back in 2006), and perhaps this tendinitis is the manifestation of that rather unorthodox arm action. We'll see. Guerra's scouting reports this year were frankly worse than that, and I did the Mets list last year so I talked to plenty of people on Guerra last year; he was better then than he was this year. Morales has super upside but it super raw. You mentioned teenage sensation Aaron Hicks, whom I will rank quite high. His tools are superior to those of Morales, he's more polished, much more likely to stay in CF . . . he's a lot better, for me, than Angel Morales as a prospect.

Q: Anthony Swarzak seemed to elevate his game after he made the jump to
AAA. I know you're not terribly high on him because he's mostly a two-pitch
pitcher without great fastball (FB) control. Has his stock risen in your eyes? Do you
see him as a starter or reliever in the majors?

A: His stock has risen a bit; he had a weird year in terms of performance. His combination of stuff, age and performance makes him the Twins' best starting pitching prospect in the minors at this time. He still needs better fastball command to thrive as a starter and could factor into the bullpen in '09, which wouldn't be a bad thing.

Q: The Twins have two third base prospects in the high minors who could
make an impact in a couple of years--Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia. What
are your thoughts on these players? Which one do you think is the third
baseman of the future?

A: If Hughes was good enough defensively at 3b, he would have been in Minnesota. Even now, he's just been moved from 3b to LF in the Venezuelan Winter League. (The Twins want him there playing 3b.) I just don't think he's cut out to be a regular in the infield, but it sounds like his power is real. He's a rhythm hitter who stayed healthy, got in a rhythm and crushed the ball in the first half as all his physical maturity, experience and playing time came together. He's just not quite there defensively. Valencia ranks ahead of him for me, he put some things together offensively this year and defensively from a consistency and maturity standpoint. It would be better if he weren't the best prospect in an organization at the upper levels, but that is what he is right now for Minnesota.

Q: Jose Mijares came up late this year and did a phenomenal job in tough
situations for the Twins. Was this a fluke or do you think he has staying
power?

A: He has staying power. He ranked No. 11 coming into the year for BA, pre-Mets trade, and that was before the car wreck that wrecked his offseason. He's got plus-plus stuff at times and he's matured off the field and has become more consistent on and off the field. He's got a chance to be Minnesota's top setup man for the next 3 to 5 years.

Q: This past year, two of the most highly thought of prospects--Robertson
and Guerra--struggled some with injuries or mechanical issues. Did their
stock drop? How do you rate them now?

A: Yes, both dropped a decent amount. Robertson pitched well with less than his best stuff and didn't have surgery, but his injury is frankly troubling nonetheless because he has that funky arm action. I like him better than Guerra right now because Guerra just never showed the velocity he had shown as a Mets farmhand, and it sounds like he's not as athletic as a pitcher his size needs to be to be a stud/ace. He sounds like more of a decent chance to be a starter guy than an ace guy.

Q: Trevor Plouffe has had a couple of solid but not spectacular years as a
youngster in his league. Last year you projected him as a future utility
player. Has your evaluation of him changed at all? If so, how?

A: He's got the power to be a regular; he's got the plate discipline of a second-division regular or utility guy. I think the Twins like him better than I do.

Q: The Twins acquired a couple of top pitching prospects in Philip Humber
and Kevin Mulvey in the Santana trade. Both had disappointing first halves
at Rochester before really turning it around in the second half. How would
you rate them now?

A: Mulvey remains ahead of the more-heralded Humber (Mulvey was ahead last year in our Mets rankings). However, Mulvey's stuff was a bit down from what he did with New York; perhaps he and Guerra tried too hard to live up to being dealt for Santana. Humber figured things out in terms of commanding the fastball, working off his fastball and putting people away with his curve late in the year. He *could* be valuable as a middle or long reliever, a better version of Brian Bass last year, but there's no room in the rotation for him right now, and he's out of options.

Q: Was Brian Duensing's stock affected by his showing in the Olympics? If
so, how?

A: It was in that it kind of saved a down year for him; he wasn't as sharp with his command. He still has important fans in the Twins organization and ranks ahead of Humber for a rotation spot if there's an opening, and then in Beijing he showed the ability to be a flexible reliever. The Twins like him, quite a lot actually.

Q: Jeff Manship had a disappointing year at AA but still managed to garner
an invite to the AFL. Many scouts predicted that he would struggle in the
high minors and beyond despite dominating A ball. Do you agree with these
guys? How do you rate Manship?

A. I think I reported that, that he was working more off his curve and that's why he dominated at lower levels, but his fastball was better this year. This was a transition year for him. There's a split camp in and out of the org as to who's better -- Manship or Swarzak, Manship or Duensing, Manship or Mulvey. Those four guys are tough to rank. Not sure how I'll rank 'em yet. Working on that right now.

Q: The Twins have a few other prospects at the AFL who are intriguing.
Given the way the bullpen performed this year, I'm especially interested in
a trio relievers: Tim Lahey, Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama. None of
these guys have the draft pedigree that suggests prospects. Do they still
have value?

A: Slama was in our Top 30 last year, hope someone noticed that I ranked them. Our Alan Matthews, who is now a scout with the Rockies, saw Slama in college and loved him, and I trusted him plus our other reports on him, and he had a tremendous, tremendous year. However, Delaney is ahead of him in the Twins' pecking order at this time. Both have fastballs that sink, with Delaney having a heavy, heavy fastball when he's right. Both have solid sliders, Slama's slider is better but Delaney's fastball command is better. Both have a chance to impact the big league bullpen in '09, more likely neither guy has a great career but if one of them becomes a sixth- or seventh-inning option in 2009 or 2010, I would consider that a huge success. Delaney's undrafted, Slama was a 39th round pick. Lahey has more power stuff and also sinks it but for me the other two guys are better bets.

That's plenty of questions for now. Thanks again for your answers!

Joe Christensen: Neshek has setback

2008-11-11T03:15:54Z

Joe Christensen: Neshek has setback

My take: (Not necessarily the views of Joe C. or the management) I for one thought the Twins asking a guy to rehab on half a ligament was foolish. As hard as this must be on Pat, I'm not surprised by the inevitable setback. Hopefully, this convinces the Twins to finally do the surgery. The bad news is, he lost six months of his career trying to rehab a torn ligament. This is reminiscent of the Mauer and Liriano injuries. The difference is, it took Neshek six months to have his setback. It's time to seriously question the Twins medical staff philosophy: "Surgery is a last resort."

Twins Prospects #47-50 (Poll)

2008-11-09T22:38:02Z

Finally, the Twinkie Town Top 50 prospect list is almost complete. With this vote, we will determine our 47, 48, 49 and 50th prospects. (Note - to see the 1-46 prospects, click the Continue Reading Story link).

Here are the players vying for Twins Prospect #47:

The vote to this point has been:

Danny Valencia, 3B
Ben Revere, OF
Aaron Hicks, OF
Angel Morales, OF
Wilson Ramos, C
Jose Mijares, LH RP
Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Tyler Robertson, LHP
Deolis Guerra, RHP
Luke Hughes, 3B/2B/OF/DH
Shooter Hunt, RHP
Kevin Mulvey, RHP
Trevor Plouffe, IF
Jeff Manship, RHP
Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF
Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
Anthony Slama, RH RP
Philip Humber, RHP
Brian Duensing, LHP
Steve Tolleson, IF
Rene Tosoni, OF
Michael McCardell, RHP
Deibinson Romero, 3B
David Bromberg , RHP
Rob Delaney, RH RP
Joe Benson, OF
Jason Pridie, OF
Dustin Martin, OF
Alex Burnett, RHP
Tyler Ladendorf, SS/3B
Cole Devries, RHP
Steve Singleton, 2B
Dan Osterbrook, LHP
Erik Lis, 1B/OF/DH
David Winfree, OF
Jonathan Waltenbury, OF
Evan Bigley, OF
Brian Dinkelman, 2B
Yohan Pino, RHP
Matt Macri, IF
Jay Rainville, RHP
Loek Van Mil, RHP
Nick Papasan, IF
Matthew Fox, RHP
Daniel Ortiz, OF
Steve Hirschfeld, RHP

Poll

Who is your choice for Twins propsect #47?

BJ Hermsen

27 votes

Paul Kelly

25 votes

Bobby Lanigan

20 votes

Zach Ward

16 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed