Just who are these new Twins?

by roger on Dec 9, 2006 8:27 AM EST Comment 28 comments

As the Winter Meetings ended, Mr. Ryan got active and signed several players who will battle for spots with the Twins in 2007. But who are these guys and how do they compare to players already in the system.

The pitcher who is most likely to help the Twins next year is Mike Venafro, who pitched in 7 games last season (3.2ip) for the Rockies with a 2.45era. Getting 11 outs in 7 appearances would indicate that he was likely used as a LOOGY during his brief stay with the Rockies. While in AAA, Venafro had a 3-1 record in 38.1 innings with a 2.35era, 1.13WHIP and 28K/13BB. Had Venafro been pitching in the Twins system this past season, he would have accumulated a rating of 107.189 points, which would have ranked him as the 13th best pitcher in the system...between Eduardo Morlan and Anthony Swarzak. At 33 years old he is no longer a prospect, and would be more comparable to Beau Kemp who recently signed with Toronto and accumulated 116.577 points last season. Venafro will battle Twins prospects Ricky Barrett, Jason Miller, and Jay Sawatski for a second lefty spot in the Twins pen.

Another lefty who will be in the mix is Ft. Myers native Carmen Cali, who saw limited action with the Cardinals in 2004 and 2005. Last season Cali pitched in both AA and AAA with a combined 1-6 record and 4.07era in 66.1 innings. Had he been with New Britain and Rochester, he would have accumulated 73.448 points ranking him #54 in the system between Elizabethton's Matt Williams and J.P. Thomas who was released late in the summer. Cali is a 28 year old hard throwing lefty, who will need all the help Rick Anderson can provide if he is to get serious consideration in spring training.

Jeremy Cummings received a lot of notice when he pitched a no-hitter against the Red Wings. Cummings, who is now 30 years old, had numbers in AAA comparable to Mike Smith and his 89.114 points would have ranked him at #34 in the system behind Smith who was #33. Cummings finished the season with a 8-6 record, 3.97era and 1.22WHIP in 138.1 innings with 102K/49BB. Adding a pitcher who pitched a no-hitter in AAA is exciting, but Cummings also allowed 18 home runs and must be considered a long shot at providing help for the Twins.

Perhaps the most interesting prospect was minor league Rule 5 pick Jesse Floyd. Floyd was with a bad Connecticut (AA) club where he had a 4-14 record with a 4.00 era in 135.0 innings with 2 complete games and a 1.21WHIP with 100K/38BB. Had he been with New Britain, he would have been the Twins 25th best pitcher ranking him between Dan Leatherman and Alexander Smit. At 25 years old Floyd must still be considered a prospect. Pitching in the same league, Twins top prospect Glen Perkins was the 15th rated pitcher with numbers that were comparable...a 4-11 record, 3.91era and 1.31WHIP in 117.1 innings with 131K/45BB.

There have been several articles already posted about last nights signing of Ken Harvey. Harvey, who was an all-star for the Royals in 2004, hasn't played much in the past two years. At 28 years old, Harvey is an interesting player who could fill a spot on the Twins roster if he is healthy and has a good spring.

Matt Allegra is a 25 year old outfielder who was signed as a minor league free agent several weeks ago. Allegra had a combined .251Ave with 16 home runs and 65rbi in 379 at bats in Hi-A and AA. Once a top A's prospect, he would have been the 20th rated player in the Twins system between Danny Matienzo and Danny Valencia.

The Twins also drafted a third baseman in the minor league part of the Rule 5 draft. Brian Buscher, who also was with AA Connecticut, had a .259Ave with 7 home runs and 49rbi in 467 at bats. He would have been the 22nd ranked player in the Twins system between Kevin West and Terry Tiffee. By comparison, Twins top prospects Matt Moses and David Winfree are both 21 and were ranked #14 and #17 respectively. At 24, Buscher doesn't appear to be the prospect Moses and Winfree are and was likely drafted to add depth at the high minor league levels and maybe to light a spark under two of the Twins' top prospects.

The final new addition and most likely to win a spot out of spring training is Rule 5 pick Alejandro Machado. Machado is a slick fielding shortstop/middle infielder who had only 6 errors last season at AAA Pawtuckett. Machado had a .260Ave in 373 at bats with 32rbi and 21 stolen bases in 27 attempts with 52 walks compared with 51 strikeouts. Had Machado been with the Twins he would have been the 10th ranked player in the system between Garrett Jones and Brandon Roberts. At only 24 years old, he appears to be a much improved prospect to make the Twins out of spring training than someone like Gil Velazquez who was the Red Wings shortstop and ranked #47 in the system. As a Rule 5 selection, Machado will have to stick with the Twins or be returned to the Nationals.

As usual, there haven't been any big trades or free agent signings. Several of these players could however, play important roles for the Twins in 2007.

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Machado

Machado's hi-ish number of walks is very nice. His .260 average looks a lot less modest when coupled with the .353 OBP he managed last year, something I didn't know.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 9, 2006 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ya...

I fully expect him to be our utility guy all year this year. As I've said before, I just find that incredibly smart by Terry Ryan. By just getting a MI utility player from the Rule 5 for league minimum as opposed to going the FA route, he probably just saved our team about $1 million with no real dropoff in probable production from that spot.

by djskilbr on Dec 10, 2006 4:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yet, still.....

There's talk about going after Brewer Jeff Cirillo for a million (won't Ryan ever learn). An aging shortstop who can play ALL infield positions. What is this desparate need for a right-handed hitter.

I'm minutely excited on the prospect of Bruce Chen, who struggled mightily as a lefty alst season in Baltimore. Not sure if this promising guy who has ended up playing for at least a half-dozen teams after being sent out of the Braves system has anything left. But he could be that back-up lefty (long-man) out of the bullpen. I would like to see him start at Rochester, though.

Can I egt more excited about Sid Ponson? Not really.

But the Twins do have players to trade (who needs centerfielder Lew Ford, for example), not to mention someone from the bullpen...Crain, Rincon would be my initial choices.

by twintown on Dec 10, 2006 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cerillo will have a different role

Machado will be the backup middle infielder, Cerillo will be the backup corner infielder and occasional right-handed DH. Cerillo is like Mike Redmond, except he can play first and third. So the bench will likely look like this:

Redmond
Machado
Cerillo
Tyner
Ford, Rabe or some other outfielder.

Given the way the pitching market has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins keep 12 pitchers all year next year, especially with the addition of Venefro. So that last spot on the bench might be gone anyway.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be

I'd be happy with Cirillo. He'd be worth having around, because if he showed his age still hasn't caught up with him to much, which he definitely could, he could start at third most the time if/when Punto falls off a bunch.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 10, 2006 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right...

I am ALL for Cirillo. This team NEEDS a stronger bench, and I think we could be poised to offer just that this season with a group of something like:

Cirillo, Machado, Redmond, Tyner, Harvey.

by djskilbr on Dec 10, 2006 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Harvey

I wouldn't say we can use Harvey AND Cirillo. In fact, I can't really see any advantage of having Harvey around. he probably isn't worth pinch hitting over almost anybody else on the team and he doesn't really add any defensive value. I'd say we'd need a 5th outfielder in the spot, even though we'll have Kubel and White around (they'll both idealy be in the lineup everyday anyway). Having yet another first baseman around wouldn't really provide any advantage. I'd much rather see 'Broccoli' Rabe on the team.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cirillo

Why are you excited about this guy? Cirillo would just be like bringing someone like Batista. Granted they are completely different players, but the concept is the same. He has a hollow batting average and would do nothing as far as infusing any energy into the team. We need to stop signing washed out veterans who are just looking for a quiet place to end their careers. Harvey might as well be Matthew Lecroy with less power, Machado is probably dangerous because Gardy will fall in love with his slick fielding and play him more than Bartlett. I don't see how this bench will do anything to help this team besides Redmond.

break the 30 HR curse!... okay the 40 HR curse!!!!

by caseintheface on Dec 11, 2006 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cirillo

Jeff Cirillo doesn't have an empty batting average. First, and most importantly, he knows how to draw a walk and get on base and has enough power to not be overly detrimental in that respect. His career line is .298/.368/.432, which he actually exceeded last year in two of three numbers. His carer numbers and his numbers last year are all higher or much higher than how Punto finished last season in ave, obp, and slg and it is likely Punto will fall of quite a lot next year. Cirillo can also play several positions, including starting at third much of the time, as well as spot play at second, short, and the corner outfield. Basically Cirillo is a utility guy who can easily be productive in 400+ Ab's and could become a superior starting third baseman if/when Punto falls off. I for one really hope they get him. In fact, I was really hoping they'd get him this last year.

Batista wasn't bad because he was old, he was bad because he'd NEVER been a good player. Jeff Cirillo has been a quality player capable of adequately manning multiple positions and providing a respectable bat with plus on base abilities for his entire career and has remained strongly so over the last couple years. I don't think cirillo would be a good bench option. i honestly think he'd probbably be a better option to start at third than Punto, and at any rate, would provide a very qualified backup option.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, this was useful

...nice to get a handle on who these guys are and how they stack up currently.

I wish, just once, that we could have something to get excited about in the off-season.

Ah well, 2008 World Series or bust!

by MNPundit on Dec 10, 2006 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not excited?

With Mauer, Morneau, Bartlett, Cuddyer and Hunter returning. Hopefully add a healthy Kubel and Punto playing all year at third following his first full year that he played regularly. The Cy Young winner as our ace and four (Garza, Perkins, Bonser & Slowey) of the best young starting prospects around. Throw in the best bullpen in baseball and you aren't excited. I certainly am!

by roger on Dec 11, 2006 8:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not Really Excited

Mauer: had a career year, will regress some
Morneau: had a career year, will regress some
Hunter: had a near-career year, will regress, mitigated by defense if he stays healthy
Kubel: Is he actually recovered? CAN he actually recover? I need to see it to believe it
Punto: I thought he had turned a new leaf but his performance at the end made me wonder if it was just a long lucky/hot streak
Santana: an avatar of pitching naturally
Garza: still trying to find his rythm
Perkins: total blank
Bonser: solid but let's see what happens in a full year
Slowey: total blank
Silva: I like him but aaaaaah! Scary!
Crain: will he continue to degrade
Rincon: he was nowhere near as good last year is this the start of at trend or a bad year
Neshek: awesome
Nathan: double awesome
Liriano: effective dead to baseball until spring 2008

So yeah, I'm writing this year off as a training year. The stars really did seem to be aligned for a storied chase in 2006 after the Twins hit the depth in June but they blew it and broke my heart. It'll take time for me to believe again.

by MNPundit on Dec 15, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be...

...so quick to write off last year as something Mauer can't repeat from a value perspective. His batting average is likely to regress some, but given the types of batted balls he's been hitting, and his age and likelihood that he'll be adding some strength, he could easily start hitting for more power to balance that. Mauer is really, really good. The scouting report on him all along was that he projected to be a guy who might be able to win a batting title. That he did is impressive, but not particularly surprising.

Similarly, I'm not so sure last year was a career year for Morneau. Remember the first two months of the season? Yeah, those were pretty awful for Morneau. Then, the last month of the season, he hit for essentially no power (he became a Joe Mauer clone in many ways.) Giving Morneau's age, I don't think it's all that unlikely he could repeat last year's overall value.

Hunter's line last year wasn't that different from his career line. Even if he regresses to his career averages, that's a relatively insignificant difference and would easily be offset by any additional playing time he might get or not playing defense injured for two months.

You also forgot addition by subtraction: Rondell White, even if he's with the Twins and even if he's injured for a while, isn't going to repeat his historically bad first half from last year. No Tony Batista. No Juan Castro. That makes a difference.

Not spotting the rest of the division a 11-12 game lead is a significant boost to the Twins' chances. It's tough for any team to have a 96-win season, but off the top of my head, I'd think that this can be an 88-90 win team. Will that be enough? I don't know, but it's still a good team.

by ubelmann on Dec 15, 2006 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with Ubeelman

I don't think anyone had a career year last year, except perhaps Nathan. The middle of the lineup hitters are still not in their prime years. Mauer is 23. And if you watched him hit, you know he was an unlucky .347 hitter, as odd as that sounds. He hit the ball hard 80 percent of the time last year. Morneau barely showed up for two months. And the team basically spotted the division 10 games while it tried to be something it is not. Cuddyer didn't start hitting clean-up until June and he still knocked in 109 runs. Bartlett wasn't even here until mid-June. And I think Kubel's right knee was hurt the whole second half of the year. In the one month he was healthy in both knees, he was awesome. They fixed the problems, so he should have his legs under him. Hunter was hurt for two months out of the year and he still hit 30 homers and knocked in nearly 100 runs. From a position player standpoint, the team looks to get better.

My only worry is starting pitching. But at least the Twins will have six or seven guys to fill four spots. So if, say, Silva continues to struggle, he will get a quick hook in favor of another guy. One way or another, they will figure starting pitching out over the course of 2007. The only question is, how long will it take?

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 15, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

IF White is back, I expect the lineup to be MUCH better, with the only real regression likely coming from Punto, thought hopefully Cirillo can aid there. I expect Cuddyer/Mauer/Morneau/Hunter to do at least what they did last year. Then you're adding a (hopefully) healthy Kubel and White, which is huge. Heck, Bartlett's overall value might be better this year too (ie more doubles, etc.). I really like our lineups' chances to improve.

The bullpen I also see being similar to last year overall. It's the best in baseball, no reason for it to regress significantly at all.

You know Santana's gonna be his usual self, so this season comes down to the rest of the starters. Given that Lohse/Silva/Radke all offered such poor beginnings to last year, we might not even regress there too much. It will all be on Silva bouncing back and the development of Garza/Bonser. I personally expect that Garza/Kubel will be the talk of baseball this year much like Liriano/Mauer/Morneau were last year, though of course on a smaller scale.

by djskilbr on Dec 15, 2006 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Altogether, the only thing that really troubles me from lst year is no Liriano effect. A couple young guys (cough, Garza) really shining is SO critical fo rus now.

But ubelmann, I think we're still a mid 90's win team because of the junk at the start. We won't get so hot, but we shouldn't have the huge detractors (hurt White, Batista, Castro, Silva CANT be worse, right?)

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 15, 2006 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We also don't have Radke...

...and some players are going to have off years. We don't know which ones just yet, but some players are going to be better than expected and some will be worse. Mid-90s I think is a little too optimistic, but it doesn't take that much good luck for an 89-90 win team to make it to 95-96 wins, and it doesn't take that much bad luck for an 89-90 win team to go down to 83-84 wins.

Injuries are another thing. Having a team with a few superstars (Mauer, Morneau, Santana, Nathan) is great when they are healthy, but generally means a significant dropoff if they get injured. Those guys aren't particular injury risks, but Punto, Castillo, Hunter, and Kubel are all, in no particular order, pretty big injury risks.

Last year, I projected Punto and Castro to play about 40 games each. That met with a ton of skepticism, everyone thinking there was no way they would get that much playing time, because both looked like backups at the time. Well, Castro managed to work his way into the starting lineup when Gardy (brain) went on the DL, and Punto got a lot of time when Terry Ryan finally admitted that Batista wasn't going to do anything.

Right now, it looks like we're going to see significant playing time (200+ AB) from guys like Machado, Tyner, and Ford. And while I like Cirillo as a bench guy, he's a huge downgrade from Morneau if he goes down with an injury. If you look at our bench right now, it has absolutely no power whatsoever, and we don't have anyone in the minors who figures to step up and give us any power at a corner position.

by ubelmann on Dec 15, 2006 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I of course agree...

that losing Radke hurts, BUT his first half wasn't exactly stellar. I really don't see our team being any worse. Given expected offensive boosts (White/Kubel) and the realistic hope that at least two to three of Garza/Bonser/Silva/Slowey/Perkins/Baker/Durbin/vet can give us solid innings, we probably are going to be a better team than we were last year. The only thing is though that the other teams in the division probably figure to get better (you know Kenny's gonna get a CF, Cleveland improved it's pitching and added Lucc and Barfield, KC will be better, Tigers added Sheffield). It will be a crazy race again. My money's on us and Cleveland battling it out for the division with the other battling the Yankees for the WC. CWS and Detroit will battle for a very close 3rd IMO.

by djskilbr on Dec 15, 2006 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

He spent most of the second half working off his first two months as far as wins provided go.

The point kind of is, we'll be worse than the last four months, but much better than the first two, and we could average it out pretty well. As we've seen, once you get enough wins to get in, anything can happen.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 16, 2006 4:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuff

I'm not writing off Mauer's victory but I don't care how good you are, it's far more likely you will not repeat as the batting champion. I'm not saying he's going to hit .290 or something, in fact I expect a .315-.325 with a similar number of walks.

But people have been predicting Mauer power for at least 4 years and I have not seen proof of it yet. I have barely seen improvement on that front yet! There WAS some improvement last year but I cannot tell if that is statistical noise or not, I am optimistic, but I don't expect it and so I'm not really counting on a significant increase in power. Combined with a slight decrease in OBP and I think it's fair to expect some regression even if it's slight.

After Ub said on Morneau I think it just becomes a comment on your personality. I look at the glass half-empty you look at it half-full, in this case I think Morneau could arguably go either way.

In regards to Kubel.... what changed this year than last year? Is it simply more time to rebuild the knees? I thought he was pain free last year when he began as well. So again, pursuant to my pessimism I fear this is not a matter of enough rest to fully heal but that Kubel now has in effect a "glass knee" and no matter how much rest he gets it'll never be reliable over a full season.

I'm not counting White because we do not have White yet though I'd like to give him a full healthy shot. When he was healthy he did much better and he worked hard and took his lumps and that has earned him another shot.

by MNPundit on Dec 16, 2006 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Talk

Where did this Cirillo talk come from? I'd really like to know if there's anything to get excited about.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 2:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Supposedly...

we offered him a contract (or were about to) at roughly $1-1.5 million. The reports were that he's considering us vs. offers from Milwaukee/Cincinnati. Obviously, we could probably offer him easily the move playing time of those groups.

I too am really hoping for him, and if all other trade scenarios fail (ie getting a starter-worthy 3b in a package with a veteran SP), then I wouldn't mind seeing him replacing Punto at 3b if/when he fails too.

by djskilbr on Dec 11, 2006 3:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Where

But where is this info coming from?

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 4:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Found it

Found it. it is This column from the star-trib by the guy you can trust: La Velle E Neil III (crazy ass name, but a damn good reporter, one of the few left in print).

My guess is he'll either go with us or Cincinatti. There are BIG playing time worries in Milwaukee, so I don't think he'll go there. There are some in Cinci too. He wouldn't have any chance to earn a starting job there...

Of course, if he went to Cinci, maybe it would parlay to our favor by Krivisky getting to reckless Edwin Encarnacion, who is still my fantasy third baseman that another GM just MIGHT be silly enough to give us.

Anyways, yo be realistic, I just hope we get Cirillo and he stays consistent. After that, it would be up to Gardenhire to see Punto is just a utility player (assuming Cirillo outplays him).

Also interesting in the article are a few of Ryan's comments about the market. At the end, he mentions how once the crazy deals started rolling in, he knew they weren't in for a pleasant time at the meetings.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 4:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya....

sorry I didn't post the source. It's been in a FEW articles both in MN and in Cincy/Milwaukee.

I too would love Encarnacion; just not sure if it could ever happen. But it would be sweet.

by djskilbr on Dec 11, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CMATH

Peyton got signed by the Orioles, as I'm sure you, cmath, know by now.

But he also got signed for two years for over 9 million, to rich for our blood for such a player, so your little theory didn't quite pan out.

Such a fielder for one year 2-3 millio was probably a pipedream anyway.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 11, 2006 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crazy market

I would never pay that. Remember all the speculation that the Twins should just buy out Hunter's option and sign a "cheap" alternative like Payton, Matthews, or Lofton? Add the $2 million boyout price and that doesn't look like such a good deal anymore. Some thought the Padres would buyout Cameron and make him a free agent rather than pay him the $7 million option. That now looks like a great bargain. I wonder if, after all these guys like Payton and Burns are signed, Lew Ford might actually fetch a quality arm in return.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2006 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that...

...the buyout was ever the best course of action. Instead, the smart thing to do would've been to trade Hunter to someone who would eventually sign him to a long-term deal. For instance, the Angels are still pretty loaded with prospects. If we could fetch Alexi Casilla for J.C. Romero, think what we might have gotten in return for Hunter. And look at the Dodgers, too. They've got a lot of talent in their farm system. They were willing to throw $45M Juan Pierre's way to cover CF for them--what do you suppose they would've been willing to give up to get a superior player signed to a better contract in Torii Hunter?

I'm not 100% sure about what Dave Roberts' defensive capabilites are anymore (he certainly has a bad arm, but from what I've seen, he seems to still possess pretty good range), but his contract seems pretty reasonable amongst all the options out there. If we could've added a top-shelf prospect and a mid-level prospect in return for Hunter, and then turned around and signed Dave Roberts for $20M/3yr or, say, Kenny Lofton for $7M/1yr, we would have a viable CF for the year, a little more payroll to play with, and (most importantly) an extra young player or two at a position of need. (At least one way of calculation has Dave Roberts underpaid by $3M/year given the current market situation, though I think that's overestimating him a bit. $20M is only $8M more than what we're paying, and you get an extra two years out of the deal.) The devil is in the details, and trades are always hard to work out, but it looks like it was a situation the Twins might have been able to capitalize on.

That said, the Twins can still get something in return for Hunter if the season goes down the crapper. Given the state of the Angels' and Dodgers' farm systems, though, and their willingness to blow all kinds of money on Gary Matthews, Jr. and Juan Pierre, I suspect that we might have missed out on an opportunity to improve the club.

by ubelmann on Dec 11, 2006 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs