First Pitch:  6:07pm CDT
TV:  TBS
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Pinstripe Alley

• In his two starts against the Yankees this year, the Bombers are batting .224/.327/.255.  If he can somehow duplicate those numbers tonight, the Twins will have their chance without having to out-slug New York.
• It was a long time ago, but Pavano has a 1.40 post-season ERA.
• Right-handers hit Pavano better than lefties, so keeping runners off the bases for big hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher is a must.
• It doesn't matter where you pitch the Yankees--they can hit a home run no matter how "down in the zone" you get.  Pavano will need to have movement on his slider and his hard, sinking fastball.  All of his pitches will need to be thrown for strikes, or at the very least thrown from time to time so the Yankees know he's using them.  If New York can get Pavano to work from behind and rely on his fastball, this game could get ugly very, very quickly.
• If you were Carl Pavano, would you have added incentive for pitching against the Bombers in the post-season?  I know I would.

• Over Pettitte's last five regular season starts, he allowed 17 walks.  His control definitely hasn't been as good this year.
• In spite of the added walks, base runners as a whole are down.  Pettitte actually has more innings pitched than hits allowed for the first time since 2005.
• More balls in play are turning into fly balls than ever before for Pettitte, but he's still not giving up as many homers as you might think based on percentage.  20 for a full-time starter is acceptable anyway, but only 8.9% of fly balls are going over the fence, which is about two percent better than average.
• A majority of Pettitte's pitches are delivered as fastballs and cut-fastballs.  He will mix in a few breaking balls, and even fewer changeups, but it's the cutter and that curveball that have been his most effective pitches this season.
• Looking at some quick splits Pettitte is much better on turf than grass, and he also controls right-handed batters much better than left-handed batters.  If Kubel is going to do some damage against a southpaw, Pettitte is probably his guy.
• As a playoff pitcher, Pettitte has over 200 innings under his belt and is known for being a "big game pitcher".  In that time he's amassed a very respectable 3.96 ERA, while allowing just 1.35 base runners per inning.  His strikeout rates are a bit lower than his career averages, but so are his walk rates.  It looks like he tries to be a bit more careful and methodical, but it works.  No doubt the Twins will have their work cut out for them today.

The Twins need to win 3 out of 4 against the Yankees to turn the collective baseball world on its ear.  Realistically, they HAVE to steal this one here.  So, on with it, then.

Starting pitchers:

If you would've told me in August that the starting pitcher I wanted on the mound to take out the Yankees on the road in the playoffs would be Nick Blackburn, I'd have told you pull my other leg, as it plays showtunes.  But here we are.  Blackburn's been superlative of late.  He needs to be better than that tonight.

It's Burnett's first playoff start.  The conventional wisdom is that the Twins need to get to him early and be patient.  In other news, Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young are in the lineup.  /starts drinking

Lineups:

Gardy plugs Go-Go into center and moves Kubel to DH.  Good call, says Howard.  Why not, says I.

Enjoy the biggest game of the season, everybody.

First Pitch:  5:07pm CDT
TV:  TBS
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Pinstripe Alley

Last night was awesome.  Without a doubt one of the greatest games I've experienced as a Twins fan, and that includes the close of 2006.  But that's all over, and it's time to focus on the next challenge, and that comes in the form of the New York Yankees.  The dreaded Bombers.

This year the Yanks owned the Twins, with Minnesota going winless in seven meetings.  But as I said on my Q&A over at Pinstripe Alley, that was when the Twins were playing some pretty bad baseball and it still took the Yankees needing a last-second hit to earn their victory.  Now, the the Twins clicking, this series just might not be the pushover that everyone is expecting.

If the Twins can steal game one, momentum will shift dramatically.  Let's go take down Goliath.

Speaking of Goliath, here's our old nemesis Sabathia.  He's having a good season, and in his only start against Minnesota went seven strong innings, holding the Twins to one run off three hits and a walk.  His walk-to-strikeout ratio is the worst it's been in years, but that doesn't mean he's been bad.  Because he hasn't.  Sabathia is still a very good pitcher, and his numbers reflect that.  His flyball ratio is up slightly as well, with the ground-ball rate down, meaning the potential of damaging extra-base hits goes up.  What is interesting about Sabathia this year is that his slider hasn't really been his money pitch.  The changeup is still dominant, but this year it's counterpart has been Sabathia's fastball.  It will be interesting to see which pitch he goes to when he's looking to put someone away.

Well Brian, this is why you become a major league pitcher.  It's been a fantastic debut for you and here's hoping you can pick up your first playoff victory today.  We all know what needs to happen here, so godspeed and best of luck.  We're all behind you.  Partially because we support you, but partially because we're afraid C.C. Sabathia might sit on us.  You first.

Lineups

Twins
Denard Span, CF
Orlando Cabrera, SS
Joe Mauer, C
Michael Cuddyer, 1B
Jason Kubel, RF
Delmon Young, LF
Brendan Harris, DH
Matt Tolbert, 3B
Nick Punto, 2B

Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Johnny Damon, LF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Hideki Matsui, DH
Jorge Posada, C
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Melky Cabrera, CF

First Pitch:  1:10pm CDT
TV:  WFTC-29
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Royals Review

A win today guarantees nothing worse than a game 163 for the second year in a row.  The moral of this story?  Every game and every win matters.  Let's get this one, and worry about what the Tigers do later.

He wasn't able to take out the Tigers for the sixth time a few days ago, but here's his shot at redemption.  A solid performance today is all it would take.  When he's at his best his fastball and slider will have good sink, and against an offense sported by Kansas City should be able to tally a few strikeouts.  Although having said that, he's really struggled against the Royals this season.  I suppose you could say he's due.

Hochevar has owned the Twins so far this season, which is ironic because he's been a horrible pittcher in general.  There's some talent, and he does have a brilliant slider that he uses as a strikeout pitch.  But he gives up way too many hits, way too many home runs and is too inefficient in his pitch counts to really carry his weight in innings.  Minnesota should be able to score some runs today, because just like Pavano versus the Royals offense, Minnesota's offense is due against Hochevar.

First Pitch:  3:10pm CDT
TV:  FOX
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Royals Review

Here we are, with just two games left in the season, and we're still in this thing.  Scoreboard watching is a reality at this point, but because the Tigers and White Sox won't be playing until this evening hopefully the boys can have 100% of their focus on the field.  It's not going to be easy; the pressure, the must-win situation, and the the 800-pound gorilla in the room that comes in the form of a 6' 2", 190 lb right hander.

Joe C. asked Gardy if he was encouraged by how his team performed versus the immortal Greinke last weekend.  The reply?

“Listen, we’re encouraged because we’re swinging the bats well, we scored some runs last night, scored runs in Detroit off pretty good pitchers, too. We’ve faced [Roy] Halladay and beat him. We’ve battled against [Justin] Verlander, Greinke — we’ll take our chances. We’ll do the best we possibly can. This team’s got a lot of gumption about it, so we’ll just see what we can do. He’s pretty good.”

I love it.

Nick has returned to early-season form over his last three starts, literally money in the bank as he's allowed just three earned runs in 20.1 innings.  Today he's rising to the challenge of pitching on just three days rest, when the only way to guarantee that tomorrow means something is to win.  That's as complicated and as simple as it is today.  Win, tomorrow means something.  Lose, and it could be over tonight.

If anyone but Zack gets the AL's Cy Young award this year, it will be a crying shame.  Having said that, he needs to be denied his 17th win today.  We'll leave it at that.

This is Minnesota's A-Team.  Against a right-handed pitcher, these are the nine guys you need on the field.  Once again, Mauer is behind the plate; nothing can be held back today.

First Pitch:  1:05pm CDT
TV:  FS North
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Bless You Boys

After last night's disappointing 7-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers (85-73), the Minnesota Twins' (82-76) backs are squarely against the wall this afternoon in Detroit. Three games ahead with four to play, and a magic number of 2, the Tigers can clinch the division with a win. The Twins need a win today plus a lot of help to gain at least two additional games over the weekend. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

Starting Pitchers

Fortunately for the Twins, our most consistent pitcher is on the mound this afternoon. For the most part, Baker's 2009 numbers are a repeat of his solid 2008 season. K/9: 7.48 (2009) to 7.36 (2008). BB/9: 2.05 to 2.19. BABIP: .288 to .290. Opponent's batting average: .251 to .249. GB/FB: 0.73 to 0.72. Etc. The only real difference in Baker's peripherals is a higher HR/FB rate (10.1% to 8.5% - suggesting a regression to mean) and a large drop in LOB% (69.4% to 78.7%), both of which drive a higher FIP (4.02 to 3.79) and much higher ERA (4.48 to 3.45). 

After a very good August (4-0, 3.18 ERA), Baker has seen some struggles during his five September starts (2-2, 4.66 ERA). None of Baker's last three outings (CLE, DET, @KC) have been quality starts, and the Tigers hit him hard on 9/20, with 8 hits and 4 runs in 4.2 innings. Minnesota needs Baker to come up big in his last regular season start of the season.

Robertson's 2009 season has been full of ups and downs. After spending the first three months in the bullpen, he spent most of July and August on the DL, making his first start of the season on 9/3. He's only pitched 43.2 innings, so his arm is definitely fresh for this time of the year. He doesn't know where the ball is going (28 walks in 43.2 innings), but his arm is fresh...

In the past, I'd be concerned about Robertson's left-handedness, but this season, the Twins hitters' numbers are a little better against lefties (.281/.340/.435) than righties (.270/.344/.420). Unfortunately, today is a day game for the Twins, and we're 10 games below .500 (23-33) in early starts. On the other hand, Detroit is 8 games above .500 during the day (32-24), so again, an uphill battle.

First Pitch:  6:05pm CDT
TV:  FS North
Radio:  Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy:  Bless You Boys

It's a big night for the Minnesota Twins organization.  First, the team is on the ropes after dropping game two of Tuesday's double-header.  Now two games back once again, the Twins are in a position where their only legitimate shot at October will come if they win tonight and tomorrow afternoon.  Losing both games means elimination.  Losing just one game reduces Minnesota's playoff chances to one of these two scenarios.

1. The Twins sweep the Royals, the White Sox take at least two of three from the Tigers.
2. The Twins take two of three from the Royals, the White sox sweep the Tigers (force game 163).

The easiest thing to do would be, clearly, to just win tonight.  And then just win tomorrow.

Of course the second reason this is a big night for the Twins organization is because they've landed their biggest international signing ever.  Miguel Angel Sano, pending a visa, will likely join the Minnesota farm system at some point next year, and immediately becomes the organization's top prospect.

While winning back-to-back games against the division-leading Tigers is the only way the Twins is the only way to "control their own destiny", it's not as imposing as it sounds.  Detroit's two strongest starters pitched yesterday, with Eddie Bonine and Nate Robertson each being far weaker performers.  Now let's just hope they pitch like it, and that Carl Pavano and Scott Baker pitch like we know they can.

Bonine's induced some ground balls this year, but he's also been prone to the gopher ball.  All of his pitches have been right around average as far as runs are concerned.  He's a fastball-slider-changeup pitcher with mediocre stuff and nothing over 90 mph.  The Twins just need to be patient and wait for their pitches, because they'll get them.

In his two starts against the Tigers as a member of the Twins, Detroit hitters are batting .286/.322/.304.  Overall this will be his sixth go-around against them this season, which by any measure is more than a pitcher's fair share.  So far he's owned them, throwing 37.1 innings over the first five starts while posting a more than admirable 1.68 ERA.  We all know what's on the line tonight, and we all know exactly how good Carl has been against this team this season.  Let's hope he can do it one more time.

Lineups

Twins
Denard Span, CF
Orlando Cabrera, SS
Joe Mauer, C
Jason Kubel, RF
Michael Cuddyer, 1B
Delmon Young, LF
Jose Morales, DH
Matt Tolbert, 3B
Nick Punto, 2B

Mauer back behind the plate again tonight, so I have to believe he'll be the designated hitter tomorrow.  Tolbert has now started 14 of the last 15 games at third base; or 13 of 14 prior to today.  In that span he's hitting .313/.353/.438 over 55 plate appearances, which has been a god-send.  Indeed, that line is still good after going 0-for-4 last night.  Tonight's key will be Delmon, who has a chance to be a big link between the strong hitters at the top half of the order and some surprisingly effective hitters at the bottom of the order.

Tigers
TBA