This Could Get Messy: Revenues and the Minnesota Twins
by Jesse on Nov 20, 2009 5:17 PM EST
in Speculation
26 comments
I've been inspired.
Eric in Madison is one of Twinkie Town's original members, and I'm fairly certain he was onboard for the switch from Twins Territory via Twins Geek over to where we currently chill and chat about Twins baseball. Eric, you signed up on November 19, 2005. That was four years ago yesterday. Well done, sir.
At any rate, I want to get this out of the way: I usually don't tackle things like this. Why? Honestly, part of me doesn't care. Part of me is more concerned about evaluation of current or prospective players (and prospects) and how they fit into the future of the club. But part of me, a small part, agrees that it would be extraordinarily helpful in our evaluation of the organization's use of funds if we knew how much they had to spend. Generally.
This gets a little tricky in that next spring, the Twins more into Target Field. Revenues will jump, dramatically, because...well, because it will actually be the home of the Minnesota Twins. For those of you who weren't hip (how about that for dated slang that outdates me), the revenues the Twins received through the Metrodome were stunted because it was a building that belonged to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes grabbed a major percentage of revenues from things like parking and beer and hot dogs. And so now that the Twins have their own park, they'll start to reap the benefit of additional revenue, because they won't have to give up a percentage of it to a sports team that plays a completely different game.
Eric's conversation in the FanPosts is intriquing, and ultimately it asked one question: how much can we expect the Twins to take in revenue in 2010?
I can't answer that question, because I have no idea how to find out how much more they'll be able to pull in now that revenues belong exclusively to them. But what I can do, courtesy of Forbes, is tell you what revenues the Twins have pulled in via the Metrodome over the last ten years.
We'll compare those revenues with the payrolls of the following season, because that's how the Twins have allegedly awarded money towards payroll. We can't use revenues for the the same year as the payroll, because that doesn't make any sense.
| Year | Revenue | Year | Opening Day Payroll | Payroll % of Revenue |
| 2000 | $48,000,000 | 2001 | $24,100,000 | 50.2 |
| 2001 | $58,000,000 | 2002 | $40,200,000 | 83.8 |
| 2002 | $75,000,000 | 2003 | $55,500,000 | 74.0 |
| 2003 | $87,000,000 | 2004 | $53,600,000 | 61.6 |
| 2004 | $99,000,000 | 2005 | $56,200,000 | 56.8 |
| 2005 | $102,000,000 | 2006 | $63,400,000 | 62.2 |
| 2006 | $114,000,000 | 2007 | $71,400,000 | 62.6 |
| 2007 | $131,000,000 | 2008 | $62,200,000 | 47.5 |
| 2008 | $149,000,000 | 2009 | $65,300,000 | 43.8 |
| 2009 | $158,000,000 | 2010 | $83,000,000 | 52.5 |
| Total | $1,021,000,000 | -- | $534,900,000 | 52.4 |
Now, these numbers are based off either A) the revenue number provided by Forbes or B) the payroll numbers provided by relevant links or Cots Contracts figures.
The problem is that I can't guarantee what those revenue numbers include, but the Forbes article itself says the Twins spent around 63% of revenue on players over the last five seasons compared to 57% league average. Obviously the numbers somewhere don't jive.
Minnesota has averaged a $14 million bump in revenue over the last four seasons, but ignore that for now. If we're taking this season's revenues to calculate next year's payroll, then $83 million isn't a bad total. No doubt, however, the Twins are correctly anticipating increased revenues thanks to Target Field.
If we want accurate figures there's a lot of research to do, and there's still no guarantee how close or accurate we could be in regards to predicting next year's available payroll. Knowing what I know now, and keep in mind that is more than subject to whatever facts are laid out in the comments section below, I have to believe the Twins are probably right around the mark in terms of payroll VS revenues. At least, until someone can prove otherwise.
26 comments | 0 recs |
Seth Stohs On 40-Man Roster Additions
Head over and see Seth's thoughts on who the Twins added to the 40-man roster. Today was the deadline, and there were some interesting names excluded. But who made it?
3B--Danny Valencia
P----Alex Burnett
P----Deolis Guerra
P----Rob Delaney
P----Loek Van Mil
SS--Estarlin de Los Santos
1 day ago
Jesse
17 comments
0 recs
Five Hours and Counting
by Jesse on Nov 19, 2009 7:06 PM EST
in Speculation
11 comments
Free agency looms. Will any of the Twins five free agents return?
It's been confirmed that the Twins have had opening talks with Carl Pavano's agent, but other than Ron Gardenhire saying he'd be interested in bringing back Orlando Cabrera as his second basemen there's been no news on the rest of Minnesota's remaining free agents.
Redmond's had a distunguished career, and he's earned himself a reputation as a "gamer". He plays hard, he's a leader and he's a mentor. With Joe Mauer as the game's best catcher and Jose Morales getting his feet wet with some decent results, Redmond's time in Minnesota as a player is likely done. He'll be 39 next May, and NBP has done the expected and said he'd like to remain with the Twins.
During his five seasons in Minnesota Redmond hit .297/.339/.359 in 931 plate appearances, with 44 walks and 85 strikeouts. I'll remember him for the "Smell 'Em" bit, for hitting .341 in '06 and for being pretty much the best backup a team could ask for.
Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable
The 38-year old southpaw pitched about as well as you could ask him to down the stretch for the Twins, and he helped to solidify the LOOGY role when Jose Mijares lost his mind and threw at Adam Everett. Over the course of his career he's been a pretty decent relief pitcher, succeeding as a middle relief guy especially when used as that lefty-one-out-guy. Mahay's struggled with his command for most of his career, and he's averaged 4.4 BB/9 across his last three years.
With fewer positions available than there are arms already it doesn't make sense to bring in a LOOGY when it's going to take seven digits to get him to commit, especially when Mijaries can do the job for a fraction of the cost. Thanks for the contributions sir, but I think it might be time to shake hands.
Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable
He was excatly as advertised in 2009: great with the glove, some pop in his bat, can't get on base and can't stay on the field. At points over the last few weeks I've advocated the possibility of bringing Joe back on a similar contract to the one he signed last February, but the more I tihnk about it the worse of an idea it becomes. If you're going to shell out for a free agent, make sure it's a guy who has a good chance of playing. Don't pay millions for a guy who will require a contingency plan because he's almost a guarantee to miss stretches of time. Nick Nelson spells it out much better than I have.
Crede isn't opposed to returning, and I have to agree with Nick: if the Twins wait this out and try to make something happen at third base but can't by February, then sure, give Crede another shot. In reality, he might get another shot. But I won't be upset if he signs elsewhere, and I'm hoping that I can remember him as the guy who hit the grand slam to put us over the White Sox early in the year.
Odds for a return in 2010: Possible
O-Cab was a high-energy guy who brought a buzz to the team when they needed it. Like Crede he came up with some massive and memorable hits, but also like Crede his overall production doesn't warrant a whole lot of consideration for a return. He's already showing decline, and at 35 he's not going to get better.
Cabrera was great to have around and I'll remember him not just for his homer in game 163, but for his relationship with Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, and for giving the club a shot of adrenaline. Unfortunately second base isn't going to make his millions any more palatable, particularly when there are so many second base upgrades on the free agent market.
Odds for a return in 2010: Possible
This season was a bit of a revival for Pavano, and he proved himself to be a big game pitcher for the Twins down the stretch. When he's healthy he's can strike a few guys out and has good command, and while he'll be 34 in January he's still young enough to have another good season or two to give.
Pavano has stated he'd like to return to the Twins, and naturally the prospect of playing for a competetive team like Minnesota will have some draw. Minnesota's interest is likely mutual, but Pavano's future here (unlike the rest of the guys on this list) will depend greatly on what kind of interest he draws from other clubs and how much they'll be willing to pay him next year.
I expect Pavano to get an offer from the Twins within the next couple of weeks.
Odds for a return in 2010: Realistic
11 comments | 0 recs |
Howard Sinker Fixes the Twins
Check out Howard's blog from this morning where he names a trio of free agent additions that would help the Twins be a better team without totally busting the bank.
2B: Felipe Lopez
3B: Pedro Feliz
SP: Ben Sheets
2 days ago
Jesse
35 comments
0 recs
Selig Talks Playoffs 2010, Draft Picks
Bud Selig is attempting to tighten up the 2010 playoff schedule so there aren't as many off days. He also discusses free agency and more equality in draft picks, while talking very briefly about instant replay (still not in favor).
2 days ago
fischean
11 comments
0 recs
Twins, Washburn Continue to Make Eyes At Each Other
by Jesse on Nov 18, 2009 7:13 PM EST
in News
59 comments
Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?
The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year. There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February. Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump. This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.
Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market. Washburn, apparently, fits the bill. He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career. Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.
As long as they're not the only ones.
I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform. Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.
| Year | AGE | IP | GS | FIP | tRA | K/9 | BB/9 |
| 2006 | 30 | 187.0 | 31 | 4.78 | 4.88 | 4.96 | 2.65 |
| 2007 | 31 | 193.2 | 32 | 4.77 | 4.81 | 5.30 | 3.11 |
| 2008 | 32 | 153.2 | 26 | 4.72 | 5.59 | 5.10 | 2.93 |
| 2009 | 33 | 176.0 | 28 | 4.58 | 5.21 | 5.11 | 2.51 |
To make sure we're on the same page: Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older. Which should surprise absolutely nobody. In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.
The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note: should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years). But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery. It's just another red flag for a guy who:
- Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
- Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
- Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
- Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)
Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009. Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go. His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been. He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP. None of that is sustainable.
Conclusions
Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question: does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better? Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does. On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results. And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation. We all know how the Twins like their depth.
Would it be a bad signing? Depending on the contract, probably not. I'm just hoping for something more.
I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.
Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn. STOP IT.
Ben: Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.
Jesse: yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.
Ben: Point taken.
59 comments | 0 recs |
Manager of the Year
Scioscia, Tracy Named Managers Of The Year
and Rich keep getting richer? Red Sox and Yankees both looking to get Halladay:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/heyman-yankees-red-sox-have-shot-at-halladay.html
Update: Add another link, linking Washburn and the Twins:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/twins-and-brewers-on-washburns-radar.html
3 days ago
montanatwinsfan
3 comments
0 recs
Zack Greinke Wins 2009 AL Cy Young Award
Well, he deserves it. It's great when the guy who deserves it gets the award.
4 days ago
Jesse
28 comments
0 recs
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AL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota
|
87 | 76 | .533 | 0 | Lost 3 |
|
Detroit
|
86 | 77 | .527 | 1 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
79 | 83 | .487 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Kansas City
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Cleveland
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 5 |
(updated 11.22.2009 at 6:37 AM EST)
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