The Twins haven't had this much waiver wire speculation since...um, since...

I blame Buster Olney for causing a ruckus, throwing out careless and haphazard phrases like "The Twins make a lot of sense as a possibility" for Raul Ibanez.  Soon afterward, Joe Christensen put the kibosh on that idea, saying the Twins weren't the winners of the Ibanez sweepstakes.  Initially saying they didn't place a claim at all, Christensen updated his blog later as it turns out Minnesota did make a move, but were merely out-done by a team higher on the waiver wire pecking order (also known as the Detroit Tigers).

What's interesting about yesterday was that the Twins placed, and WON, their waiver wire claim on Jarrod Washburn.  As we all know, teams often make this kind of a snide move in order to screw things up for another team, in this case speculation indicates it was done to block a Washburn-to-Chicago situation.  That's not a bad thing, it's always nice to see the Twins doing something proactive.  But THEN came the report that Minnesota was actually considering bringing Washburn and his hot streak to the Dome.  Says Joe C.:

In Washburn’s case, it sounds like the Twins did indeed win the claim and had extensive talks with the Mariners. The Twins were willing to take on Washburn’s contract, and Seattle could have dumped it on them. But the Mariners also wanted the Twins to throw in one of their current starters.

Over the last couple of months, Washburn had been quite effective.  But in the short (and long) term(s) I'm not sure how he fits, unless the Twins were thinking about moving Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey into the bullpen.  Which, again, doesn't make all that much sense for either Perk (there's already a bit of doubt that the Twins would put a legitimate reliever, much less a starter, into the 'pen if he's "another" southpaw) or Kevin (he's been pretty effective this year).

And of course there's the whole snafu of having the Mariners still asking for one of our four young starters not named Francisco Liriano in return...although I have it through reliable sources that that part of the conversation went something like this:

Bill Smith:  Yeah, sure, we'll take Washburn off your hands and make him fit somehow.
Not Bill Bavasi:  Okay, cool.  Oh, by the way, it'll take Baker, Perkins, Blackburn or Slowey to get him.
Bill Smith:  Up yours, smartass.  (Click.)

At any rate, at least the White Sox won't be ending up with Washburn.  Unlike the Ken Griffey Jr. acquisition, he actually might have improved their team.

Anyway, to wrap this up (sort of), Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times insists the Mariners and Twins could still work something out by placing Washburn back onto waivers again...although this time that would mean he'd be irrevocable and would go to the first team in the pecking order that claimed him, even if that wasn't the Twins.  Either way it's a no-lose situation for the Mariners who would, at worst, save on dishing out the rest of Washburn's salary.

Personally, I have a hard time believing this organization will let any of their starters walk for a guy like Washburn, but since Seattle is the worst team in the American League they could work something else out for someone on the Twins 40-Man roster, since they'd have first dibs on waivers.  And of course there are also those players who aren't on the 40-man.

No matter what Washburn's cost, even if it's peanuts, I'm just not convinced wedging him into the rotation is the best thing to do.  Even thinking of October, I'm happy picking a three-man rotation from Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins (and probably in that order, too).

Editorial Update:  We offered Boof Bonser?  No.  No, not even for Boof Bonser will I take Jarrod Washburn...like I said, I'd have a hard time convincing myself it'd be a good idea for peanuts.  Good lord, Seattle, if we were foolish enough to offer you ANYTHING other than salary relief...I'm not sure who gets Das Failboot points for this:  the Twins for offering Bonser or the Mariners for turning it down.  Let's just hope this fiasco is done.

They call it:  "Les Suck".

Leading 6-1 with one out in the seventh, the Twins looked in pretty good shape.  It's amazing how quickly things can unravel, and how even one of baseball's worst teams can look like the better team on any given night.  One inning...actually, less than one inning, was all it took for the Seattle Mariners to destroy what Glen Perkins and his offense had built.

When the bases were loaded and Rick Anderson had just sat down after coming out to talk to Perkins, you hoped that (even though Raul Ibanez was at the plate and Adrian Beltre was on deck) Anderson knew what he was doing.  But really, after the grand slam by Ibanez the Twins were still leading 6-5, and if Brian Bass could collect a pair of outs before the Mariners scored again, everything would be okay.

It wasn't.  Oh...how it wasn't.

By the time Matt Guerrier recorded the final out of the seventh inning, the Mariners had put six more on the board, and the Twins had used four pitchers.  A double, a walk, a passed ball and an infield single, all of the bad karma that had been taking a nap woke up at once and slapped the Minnesota pitching staff and defense in the face.  The seventh was a 10-run inning for Seattle, and it had stunned the Twins into silence.

You know how the saying goes?  Sometimes you're the bat...and sometimes you're the ball.

It's easy to heap the scorn on the bullpen, but games like this happen.  That's not excusing the horrible pitches or the lack of concentration, but for one inning last night the Mariners got the better of the Twins, and it all went down at once.

Brian Bass:  9 pitches, 0 innings, 2 hits, 2 runs

Bass doesn't get used often enough to get into a groove.  Last night's appearance was only his sixth since July 13th, which was also the last time he gave up a run--a solo shot in Detroit.  The problem Brian has is that every time he gets into a game, he can't get through it without laboring.  In July he pitched 10.2 innings, but threw 197 pitches...which should be enough to get a starter through 14 innings, much less a relief pitcher.  You can't blame him for not being on top of his game when he doesn't get utilized very often, but on the other hand, when he does get used he's all over the place.  There are long counts and base runners when he is effective, and the opposition just manages to convert those base runners into runs when he isn't.  It's almost like he relies on the hitters to let him off the hook.

Craig Breslow:  10 pitches, 0.1 innings, 1 walk, 1 run

Last night's game was Breslow's seventh since June 30th.  Which is absolutely ridiculous.  These guys sit on a shelf not being used, and then we're supposed to be upset when they come in and can't find the strike zone?  Breslow managed three strikes in his ten pitches, meaning that between him and Bass they threw seven strikes in 19 pitches.  The only difference between Bass and Breslow is that Breslow has usually been effective.  My concern:  if two guys can't find ways to get into the game, why are we keeping that many pitchers?    Starters go five days before taking the hill again, but at least they get to be out there a while and find themselves.  When relief pitchers are four, five, eight days between appearances and are lucky to go a full inning, what kind of results are we expecting?  Personally, I'm giving Breslow a pass for last night, because he's usually done his job.

Matt Guerrier:  19 pitches, 0.1 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs

Guerrier, unlike the two guys above, sees plenty of time.  Maybe more than he needs.  Last night was his fifth appearance in a week and his 54th of the season.  There might be some sign of fatigue showing, as in his last four appearances (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday) he's pitched 3.1 innings, allowing seven hits including a pair of jacks, for a total of six runs.  I believe in Matt as a reliable and effective relief pitcher, but some of his innings might need to be levied onto Craig Breslow.

Boof Bonser:  19 pitches, 1.0 innings, 1 hit, 1 strikeout

Boof pitched a scoreless eighth.  There isn't much more to say about his appearance, other than it was an effective one, and that it was only his seventh appearance since June 28th.

Conclusions

While I can understand carrying seven relief pitchers if you use them all, the Twins aren't managing to do so.  Partially this could be due to over-use of Jesse Crain and the aforementioned Guerrier, but instead of keeping guys fresh it's just keeping them rusty.  The Twins have three relief pitchers currently doing the job of two.

I plan to do a little more research on this, to see exactly how efficient (or inefficient) the Twins have been in their use of bullpen arms, because my conclusions could very well just be conjecture.  Overall I believe Gardenhire's use of his 'pen, as far as when to rely on it, is very solid.  My concern is how it's used, and this goes beyond the tried-and-true use of his closer.

After a successful home stand in which the Twins (62-49) have taken over sole possession of first place in the AL Central, a road trip that includes stops in Seattle (42-69) and Kansas City (52-60) will be a welcome one.  While the Mariners are just as bad at home (21-34) as they are on the road (21-35), the Twins have been a completely different team away from the Metrodome.  They're 23-28 away from the comforts of home, so with 14-game road stand at the end of the month, this is about as good of a warm up as could be asked for.  To win this division, and to win in October, Minnesota needs to win while they're away.  Picking up four or five wins before they come home a week from today would be a massive boost.

For the Mariners, there isn't much to say.  They're the walking dead, at least as far as 2008 is concerned, but hopefully the Twins aren't looking past them.  Every game is important, particularly right now, and Minnesota needs to come away with a series win.  Also, the Mariners needs pitchers.  So if you can throw 61 feet, I advise you to give them a call.

Probable Pitchers

Glen Perkins VS Miguel Batista
Scott Baker VS R.A. Dickey
Nick Blackburn VS Jarrod Washburn

Opposition Focus

Miguel Batista:  It's been one of the worst statistical seasons of this 37-year old's career.  The right-hander is usually good for 190 innings, and as things go wasn't a bad number three or four guy for the last seven years.  This year it seems he's lost his command, walking more guys (59) than he's struck out (57).  Yet the Mariners are seemingly in a position where they can't not keep giving him starts.  They've tried him in the bullpen, where he still gets rocked, but with Erik Bedard on the disabled list and even a guy like R.A. Dickey getting run out to pitch every five days, Seattle doesn't seem to have many good options (Carlos Silva, anyone?).  But back to Batista, his scouting report is as follows:  he'll walk you and he'll give up a gopher ball or two if you just wait for your pitch.  Don't force anything, because he'll destroy himself.  Now that I've sufficiently cursed the Twins, I'll move on.

R.A. Dickey:  I have a friend, we'll call him "bobomojo", who's a big fan of Dickey, and would have liked for the Twins to have kept their paws on him.  He throws a knuckleball about 70% of the time, which is neat, but apart from that he isn't very effective.  Because in spite of the knuckler, he doesn't get a lot of ground balls, and traditionally he's been prone to streaks of missing his spots.  I know, that's normal for a knuckle-ball pitcher, but the problem with Dickey is that he doesn't have anything else to offer.  Still, over his last seven starts five of them have been "quality", so he is riding some success.  Hopefully he won't buck his long-term trends on Tuesday, and he'll walk four if he goes six, and he'll probably allow 8-10 hits and a homer as well.  Patience, as always, is the key!

Jarrod Washburn:  Washburn, clearly, didn't get traded at the deadline.  Poor Yankees!  Still, he's not worth what the Mariners are paying him.  His only saving grace this season is that he's been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 14 bombs in 122.2 innings of work.  But he does get hit hard:  23.1 LD%, .295 opponent average and a few walks which tends to result in about one-and-a-half base runners per inning.  But here's the rub--he's pitched much better the last two months.  Between May 25 and July 27 he made 11 starts, eight of which were quality starts and another two which were just one out away from a quality start.  His ERA dropped in that run from 6.99 to 4.50.  Now, his first August start was forgettable, but it's hard to ignore how effective Washburn has been the second half of his season.  Plus, he's a southpaw.  And we all know what that means.

Ichiro Suzuki:  One of baseball's most dangerous leadoff hitters, if not one of the most effective, the 34-year old has been the benefactor of a poor offense.  Okay, maybe benefactor isn't the right word...how about "victim".  His strikeout rates are down, his walk rates are up, he's still making a lot of contact and isn't going outside of the strike zone any more often than in the past, his isolated power is still poor but not any lower than last season, and his LD/GB/FB splits aren't showing any major changes.  What's effected him this year is his BABIP, which at .328 is the second lowest mark of his MLB career.  It's kept him off the bases a bit more often, dropping his OBP to .360, which is the third lowest mark of his MLB career.  Another 13 singles would have raised his .303 average to his career mark of .331, and would also raise his OBP and SLG to right around their averages as well.  Another thought: maybe he's lost a step out of the batter's box?  Or he might just be unlucky this season.

Adrian Beltre:  He could have been a Twin, but it just wasn't to be.  He's a good defender and a good supplemental bat, but he's not the guy a lot of us hoped he would be, either.  With a mediocre line of .252/.322/.434 it's hard to say that he'd be an offensive improvement over Brian Buscher, unless they were to have gone into a platoon role...which wouldn't make sense considering Beltre's contract.  He does bat right-handed though, and he does mash LHP (.966 OPS), but for what the Mariners were asking he should have been the complete package.  And he isn't.  Besides, he swings at 32% of all pitches outside the strike zone.  He'd likely have been more frustrating to fans than anything else, because expectations would have been pretty high.

Raul Ibanez:  As the third, and final, position player in this edition of Series Previews, Ibanez also represents the third and final decent bat in the Mariners' lineup.  In many ways the 36-year old is having his finest season in a while.  His strikeout rates are at their lowest since '04, walk rates are at their highest since '05, and he's making better contact overall.  While his line of .281/.347/.464 is actually down from last year, it seems he might be better "tuned in" this year.  He's already notched 32 doubles, and so is on pace to shatter his career best of 37 that he set in 2002 with the Royals.  It's been a tough year for the Mariners, and they might have been better off trading Ibanez (and Washburn) in the long-run, but it's still important to have players on the field who can bring in fans and show them that the team is making an effort to put a competetive product on the field.  Ibanez is a fine player, and any organization would be well suited to have him on their team.

Stats