I've been inspired.

Eric in Madison is one of Twinkie Town's original members, and I'm fairly certain he was onboard for the switch from Twins Territory via Twins Geek over to where we currently chill and chat about Twins baseball.  Eric, you signed up on November 19, 2005.  That was four years ago yesterday.  Well done, sir.

At any rate, I want to get this out of the way:  I usually don't tackle things like this.  Why?  Honestly, part of me doesn't care.  Part of me is more concerned about evaluation of current or prospective players (and prospects) and how they fit into the future of the club.  But part of me, a small part, agrees that it would be extraordinarily helpful in our evaluation of the organization's use of funds if we knew how much they had to spend.  Generally.

This gets a little tricky in that next spring, the Twins more into Target Field.  Revenues will jump, dramatically, because...well, because it will actually be the home of the Minnesota Twins.  For those of you who weren't hip (how about that for dated slang that outdates me), the revenues the Twins received through the Metrodome were stunted because it was a building that belonged to the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikes grabbed a major percentage of revenues from things like parking and beer and hot dogs.  And so now that the Twins have their own park, they'll start to reap the benefit of additional revenue, because they won't have to give up a percentage of it to a sports team that plays a completely different game.

Eric's conversation in the FanPosts is intriquing, and ultimately it asked one question:  how much can we expect the Twins to take in revenue in 2010?

I can't answer that question, because I have no idea how to find out how much more they'll be able to pull in now that revenues belong exclusively to them.  But what I can do, courtesy of Forbes, is tell you what revenues the Twins have pulled in via the Metrodome over the last ten years.

We'll compare those revenues with the payrolls of the following season, because that's how the Twins have allegedly awarded money towards payroll.  We can't use revenues for the the same year as the payroll, because that doesn't make any sense.

Now, these numbers are based off either A) the revenue number provided by Forbes or B) the payroll numbers provided by relevant links or Cots Contracts figures.

The problem is that I can't guarantee what those revenue numbers include, but the Forbes article itself says the Twins spent around 63% of revenue on players over the last five seasons compared to 57% league average.  Obviously the numbers somewhere don't jive.

Minnesota has averaged a $14 million bump in revenue over the last four seasons, but ignore that for now.  If we're taking this season's revenues to calculate next year's payroll, then $83 million isn't a bad total.  No doubt, however, the Twins are correctly anticipating increased revenues thanks to Target Field.

If we want accurate figures there's a lot of research to do, and there's still no guarantee how close or accurate we could be in regards to predicting next year's available payroll.  Knowing what I know now, and keep in mind that is more than subject to whatever facts are laid out in the comments section below, I have to believe the Twins are probably right around the mark in terms of payroll VS revenues.  At least, until someone can prove otherwise.

Free agency looms.  Will any of the Twins five free agents return?

It's been confirmed that the Twins have had opening talks with Carl Pavano's agent, but other than Ron Gardenhire saying he'd be interested in bringing back Orlando Cabrera as his second basemen there's been no news on the rest of Minnesota's remaining free agents.

Mike Redmond

#55 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 05, 1971

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Redmond	45	135	9	32	5	1	0	7	11	19	0	0	.237	.299	.289

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Redmond's had a distunguished career, and he's earned himself a reputation as a "gamer".  He plays hard, he's a leader and he's a mentor.  With Joe Mauer as the game's best catcher and Jose Morales getting his feet wet with some decent results, Redmond's time in Minnesota as a player is likely done.  He'll be 39 next May, and NBP has done the expected and said he'd like to remain with the Twins.

During his five seasons in Minnesota Redmond hit .297/.339/.359 in 931 plate appearances, with 44 walks and 85 strikeouts.  I'll remember him for the "Smell 'Em" bit, for hitting .341 in '06 and for being pretty much the best backup a team could ask for.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Improbable

Ron Mahay

#37 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 28, 1971

 

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	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-0	16	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	7	3	2	1	3	8	2.00	1.11

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The 38-year old southpaw pitched about as well as you could ask him to down the stretch for the Twins, and he helped to solidify the LOOGY role when Jose Mijares lost his mind and threw at Adam Everett.  Over the course of his career he's been a pretty decent relief pitcher, succeeding as a middle relief guy especially when used as that lefty-one-out-guy.  Mahay's struggled with his command for most of his career, and he's averaged 4.4 BB/9 across his last three years.

With fewer positions available than there are arms already it doesn't make sense to bring in a LOOGY when it's going to take seven digits to get him to commit, especially when Mijaries can do the job for a fraction of the cost.  Thanks for the contributions sir, but I think it might be time to shake hands.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Improbable

Joe Crede

#24 / Third Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 26, 1978

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

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He was excatly as advertised in 2009:  great with the glove, some pop in his bat, can't get on base and can't stay on the field.  At points over the last few weeks I've advocated the possibility of bringing Joe back on a similar contract to the one he signed last February, but the more I tihnk about it the worse of an idea it becomes.  If you're going to shell out for a free agent, make sure it's a guy who has a good chance of playing.  Don't pay millions for a guy who will require a contingency plan because he's almost a guarantee to miss stretches of time.  Nick Nelson spells it out much better than I have.

Crede isn't opposed to returning, and I have to agree with Nick:  if the Twins wait this out and try to make something happen at third base but can't by February, then sure, give Crede another shot.  In reality, he might get another shot.  But I won't be upset if he signs elsewhere, and I'm hoping that I can remember him as the guy who hit the grand slam to put us over the White Sox early in the year.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Possible

Orlando Cabrera

#18 / Short Stop / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-9

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Nov 02, 1974

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera	59	242	42	70	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.289	.313	.430

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O-Cab was a high-energy guy who brought a buzz to the team when they needed it.  Like Crede he came up with some massive and memorable hits, but also like Crede his overall production doesn't warrant a whole lot of consideration for a return.  He's already showing decline, and at 35 he's not going to get better.

Cabrera was great to have around and I'll remember him not just for his homer in game 163, but for his relationship with Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, and for giving the club a shot of adrenaline.  Unfortunately second base isn't going to make his millions any more palatable, particularly when there are so many second base upgrades on the free agent market.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Possible

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

 

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	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carl Pavano	5-4	12	12	0	0	0	0	73.2	85	39	38	7	16	59	4.64	1.37

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This season was a bit of a revival for Pavano, and he proved himself to be a big game pitcher for the Twins down the stretch.  When he's healthy he's can strike a few guys out and has good command, and while he'll be 34 in January he's still young enough to have another good season or two to give.

Pavano has stated he'd like to return to the Twins, and naturally the prospect of playing for a competetive team like Minnesota will have some draw.  Minnesota's interest is likely mutual, but Pavano's future here (unlike the rest of the guys on this list) will depend greatly on what kind of interest he draws from other clubs and how much they'll be willing to pay him next year.

I expect Pavano to get an offer from the Twins within the next couple of weeks.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Realistic

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

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Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?

The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year.  There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February.  Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump.  This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.

Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market.  Washburn, apparently, fits the bill.  He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career.  Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.

As long as they're not the only ones.

I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform.  Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.

To make sure we're on the same page:  Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older.  Which should surprise absolutely nobody.  In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.

The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note:  should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years).  But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery.  It's just another red flag for a guy who:

• Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
• Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
• Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
• Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)

Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009.  Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go.  His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been.  He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP.  None of that is sustainable.

Conclusions

Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question:  does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better?  Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does.  On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results.  And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation.  We all know how the Twins like their depth.

Would it be a bad signing?  Depending on the contract, probably not.  I'm just hoping for something more.

I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.

Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn.  STOP IT.

Ben:  Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.

Jesse:  yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.

Ben:  Point taken.

A couple of weeks ago, I read this blog post from Joe Posnanski, in which he discusses comments made by Red Sox GM Theo Epstein about outfielder J.D. Drew. The whole thing's interesting, but what caught my eye was the following quote from Epstein:

He [Drew] does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s not make outs.

Well, this really hit me, because it's about the most concise possible argument you could make about hitting - just to simply state, "We get only three outs an inning, and when we reach three, we have to start over. Wasting outs for any reason does not help us." And yes, I realize that slugging percentage plays a big part in scoring runs, too, and a single is sometimes more valuable than a walk, and all of that. But ultimately good hitters that help their teams simply don't make outs.

This, however, got me thinking about "productive outs," and sacrifice bunting and all the rest of the things that managers and announcers talk about. How many times have you heard the Twins broadcast crew laud Nick Punto for grounding out to the correct side of the infield, thus moving the runner from second to third?

With all this in mind, I went over to Baseball Prospectus to grab the Run Expectancy Matrix for 2009. If you're not familiar with this graph, simply put, it tells you how many runs a team can be expected to score, given a certain situation and all else being equal.  Here's the 2009 version:

If you're new to reading this table, examine with me the second row ("Runner on first"). This row says that, in 2009, a team could be expected to score .8834 runs, on average, if it had a runner on first with nobody out. With one out and a runner on first, it was expected to score .5330 runs, and so on.

What I thought I'd find, from this table, was the ability to state a hard-and-fast rule about outs.  I assumed that we could all live by the following statement: "Making an out ALWAYS decreases the number of runs a team can be expected to score in an inning."

What I found was close to that statement... but not quite.

Of course, the value of an out always depends on the situation, the batter at the plate, the runners on base, and so forth. (For example: it's a better idea to have Alexi Casilla try to bunt a run home than it is to have Joe Mauer try to bunt a run home, because Casilla is far less likely to get a hit or otherwise drive the run home.)  However, with all else being equal, I was surprised to find that there are productive outs.

By this, I mean outs that actually increase the expected number of runs that a team would score. Here's the list of plausible productive outs I've found; perhaps you can find more.

• With the bases loaded and fewer than two out, an out that advances all three runners is a productive out.  (Just as an example, here's the math: With nobody out and the bases full, a team is expected to score 2.2790 runs. If the batter advances all three runners - say, with a sacrifice bunt - a run comes home, and the team has second and third with one out, an expectancy of 1.4138. In other words, the run expectancy has gone from 2.2790 to 2.4138.  With one out, the expectancy goes from 1.5580 to 1.5623.)
• With a runner on third base and one out, getting the run home via a sacrifice or simple ground-out is productive (the expectancy goes from .9655 to 1). Interestingly, this isn't true if no one is out (decreases from 1.3146 to 1.2789).
  
• With runners on first and third and one out, moving both runners along is productive (1.2018 to 1.3219). This can plausibly be done via sacrifice, or possibly a deep fly ball to Johnny Damon or any other outfielder with a terrible arm.

And that's it. In all other situations, all else being equal, making an out - whether the announcers think it's productive, or not - doesn't help the team score more runs.

Of course, productive outs are better than non-productive outs. It's better for Nick Punto to move a runner over than strike out.  But these are Pyrrhic victories; in most situations, the team is worse off.

I thought, when I looked at the numbers, we'd end up with a strict rule.  Instead, we're stuck with more of the ambiguity that baseball will always be famous for: "For the most part, making an out decreases the number of runs a team can be expected to score, all else being equal."

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players.  Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll.  How much?  Probably not too much.  But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years.  Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson?  Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled?  Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year.  An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009.  For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys.  Read all about them after the break.

Continue reading this post »

Top o' the mornin' to ya...

• Here's a Q&A with Joe Mauer over at the Strib online.  There are some good quotes, all about his game and his rewards and no contract talk, but if you've read the Twins coverage at the Star Tribune at all this week then you've probably already seen most of this.
• The boys over at FOX Sports say that the Brewers only went with the Twins after the Pirates tried to pull in J.J. Hardy with Matt Capps or Ryan Doumit.  Apparently Milwaukee was looking for either Paul Maholm or Zack Duke.
• This has already been talked about here, and there's been a lot of good discussion--the Twins will unveil new-look road uni's (along with "subtle" changes to the home threads) on Monday afternoon.
• Be sure to check out Han Joelo's gem.
• After a week to get healthy the Vikings are back in action this afternoon.  It looks like Antoine Winfield will take another week, but hopefully the Lions won't give the Vikings too much trouble and they won't miss him for one more game.  Be sure to head over to Daily Norseman for all your Vikings needs.

More photos » by Bruce Bisping - AP

Fans waited in line for hours at the annual Run Your Fingers Through Anthony Lapanta's Thick, Luxurious Hair Charity Event. Proceeds go to the Twins Community Fund and Roy Smalley's pomade expenses. (AP Photo/The Star Tribune, Bruce Bisping)

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Item: Buster Olney thinks Joe Mauer's contract negotiations might be the most important story of the offseason.

Nobody asked me, but: well, duh.  Obviously, this is a big story for Twins fans.  But, as Olney notes, the question of parity and the gulf between the haves and the have-lesses (or, if you'd rather, the Yankees and everyone else) is a big story everywhere.  (See also: Joe Posnanski, Jon Marthaler.)  One thing that I can guarantee: whatever changes are or are not made to the system, the Royals will continue to blow.

Item: Your 2010 Twins 3B is...Joe Crede?

Nobody asked me, but: Scott Boras swears that Crede's third back surgery in as many years did the trick.  Since agents are nothing if not scrupulously honest, consider me sold!  (Seriously, though: Joe C.'s article lists the current in-house options.  They are LNP, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert, with Valencia and Hughes in the wings.  Is Crede at a not-insane, incentive-laden price that bad of an idea?  I'm starting to waver.  Commenters, attack!)

Item: the Twins have not made a single roster move as I've been writing this.

Nobody asked me, but: I fully expect to post this and see that we've signed Jerrod Washburn.

Item: MPR took a walking tour of Target Field.

Nobody asked me, but: that was pretty cool.

Enjoy your weekend, kids!

Exactly nobody is surprised, as Mauer is about as good at the plate as any other two AL catchers combined.

This is Mauer's third Silver Slugger, and second in a row.  He still has a ways to go to catch Mike Piazza, though - Piazza leads all catchers with ten awards.

Joe Mauer

#7 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Apr 19, 1983

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Mauer	138	523	94	191	30	1	28	96	76	63	4	1	.365	.444	.587

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Scioscia...Andrus...Greinke...and looky looky who completes the puzzle!

YES!  Clearly there were five people who weren't watching the same baseball season as everyone else, but look at that point differential between first and second place.  And nobody voted Joe lower than third place, so kudos to all voting parties for that.

Having to vote for ten candidates means this is a pretty large chart with a lot of stragglers, and after Mauer I can't honestly remember who I voted for.  I know I voted for one of Cuddyer and Kubel, although I can't promise full homerism by saying I voted for both.  Still, I'm positive that Longoria, Cabrera, Zobrist, Jeter and Youkilis were in there somewhere.

The only two AL teams not represented on this list?  Oakland and Chicago.

We have conflicting reports on whether Mauer contract extension talks have actually started. Joe C. in this morning's Star Tribune: "Contract talks haven't started". My guess is this is Mauer downplaying any preliminary discussions that may be taking place. No cause for alarm...yet.

Other random notes (many thanks to MLB Trade Rumors):

• Joe C. also notes that Carl Pavano's agent had an "excellent first meeting" with the Twins, and that Glen Perkins has settled his grievance. 
• According to Joel Sherman, Detroit has reportedly put Curtis Granderson on the block. According to Phil Rogers, the Cubs need to go after him. Considering their need for left handed hitting, this would make a lot of sense. 
• Buster Olney is skeptical that the major free agents, Bay, Holliday and Lackey, will receive a $100M contract this offseason. Does this make Mauer a bit more affordable?
  
• MLB.com's Mark Bowman thinks the Braves may trade Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Would the Twins have any interest for the top of their rotation?
• Jeff Zriebec of the Baltimore Sun thinks the Orioles may be interested in bringing Erik Bedard back to Baltimore, and that they might be players in the 3B market. 
• As many of you know, Carlos Gomez is a "Super 2", eligible for arbitration now that he's a Brewer. Apparently Adam Jones, Mike Fontenot and Micah Owings are all right on the cutoff point, and Fontenot was selected as the last Super 2. This saves the Orioles a lot of money, but it may also make Fontenot available. Not the most attractive option, but he was mentioned here last offseason.
  
• Dave Cameron thinks the Marlins may have waited too long to shop Dan Uggla. Has the price gone down?