Twinkie Town: FanPosts

Anybody want to talk revenues?

2009-11-20T17:04:57Z

Jayson Stark wrote an interesting article for ESPN about baseball revenue, sharing, and payroll. It renewed my curiosity about Twins revenue, so I thought I would open it up for discussion. Below the fold, I'll make some guesses, but what I really want is for people who know more than I do to chime in on this.

According to Stark, after mandatory reductions for pension and MLB operations, each team receives something over $30 million from the central fund--that's national TV, merchandising, etc.

Local TV and radio money obviously varies a ton, but no team makes less than $15 million, and obviously the big market teams make many times this amount. Here's my first question: what are the Twins local TV and radio contracts worth? I would conservatively assume it's at least $25 million.

Revenue sharing: Stark suggests that after the poorest 5 teams get theirs (Twins not in this group), there is still $200 million to distribute to other payees. Here's my second question: how much of that goes to the Twins? I really have no idea how this works.

Gate: here's the big one. With Target Field opening, and the Twins collecting more of the money spent, how much are we talking for 2010? Not including advertising signage, naming rights, etc,. just dollars collected from fans by the Twins? How much will each person who enters leave behind? Tickets, parking, concessions (Twins share)? It's not entirely clear how many of each priced seat there is in Target Field, but I can't imagine the average customer will get out for less than $30, and that is very, very conservative. You could make reasonable assumptions that push that number past $50. If they get to 3 million fans, that's at least $90 million.

How much for other revenue sources? In stadium advertising? What else? How much is Target paying for naming rights? $10 million total for this sort of revenue?

Basically, is there a way we can reasonably figure out how much the Twins will take in? It seems to me that the number is probably somewhere between $170 and $250 million, but first of all, that's based on a lot of guessing, and second, that's a pretty wide range. Any way we can narrow that down?

Signing up for the Minors

2009-11-19T19:07:30Z

On Friday, the Minnesota Twins will join ALL otehr teams in announcing their 40-man rosters, players protected for immediate play, and a handful that appear to be good bets to make the team in a season or two.

Then teams will then look at arbitration eligible players and decide who to keep or cut loose, cutting loose many who may be overpricing themselves for services needed (i.e., we all remember David Oritz in Minnesota, going because the team didn't think he wsa worth $1.2 million or more and the chances of getting him cut to $800,000 or so wasn't a reality...instead, he went elsewhere and signed for what the Twins wished they could've signed him for...but union rules and regulations forbid it).

So, two new groups of players will enter the fold now made up of free agents and players cut as recent as the end of World Series, plus all those minor-league six-year guys. Baseball America recently released a list of some 500 guys eligible for filling minor league rosters...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=6994

Looking over the list, do any names standout to Twinkie Town folks as people the Twins should go after to fill Rochester and, maybe, New Britain ranks?

Teams will have an opportunity to pluck a body or two in the Rule 5 draft, the sticker is that the player needs to remain on the choosing team all year or go back. I don't really picture the Twins getting hit hard in the major league portion of the draft, but feel they may lose some promising folks in the minor league portion.

November 20th thru the General Managers meeting in early December will be another hot Hot Stove League time. I'm glad Twinkie Town is here for all the news, rumors and analysis!

Roy, Ramos, and RISK, Part II

2009-11-18T04:59:06Z

I kind of got lost in a digression about Dungeons and Dragons in Part I. I admit, my Nerd Scale does go to 11. But that was kind of my point--here you have a game where a bunch of jocks hit a little ball with a stick chopped down from some tree by some other jock, and another jock tries to catch the ball with a chunk of cow flesh chopped off a dead cow carcass that had been raised by the ultimate jock, the American Cowboy. And more often than not, the we the fans end up sounding like a bunch of nerds, bandying about statistics. I mean, it's probably redundant, but you've all seen the Seinfeld episode, right? Where George is unemployed, and he says, "I like baseball..." and Jerry says "they usually give those jobs to ex-baseball players." But in TV land George gets the job anyway, and the Yankees lose because he makes them where cotton uniforms that have shrunk. (One can only hope there is another George Costanza making his way up the Yankee chain of command. It took them years to erase his mistakes.) But by and large we're all Costanza's, and if we actually had to run a team like the Twins, we'd botch it up way worse than Smith and Gardenhire.

Seriously, the mathematical brainpower I've seen devoted to breaking down baseball statistics on Twins fansites alone could probably break the cold-fusion code, with plenty of room left over for some significant advances in time travel as well. Which would be more productive than debating the relative merits of Brian Dinkelman vs. Steve Tolleson, because then the Twins could go back in time and really fleece the Mets. Moreon RISK below.

In RISK, the idea is to slowly build up strength until you can make a blitz. Because the Yankees/Asia control more territory, they get more reinforcements every turn. It takes the Twins longer to build up strength.

In RISK, every turn you have a successful attack, you get to take a card. In baseball, this is equivalent to fielding a competitive team. You keep the fans interested, keep the money flowing, keep pouring resources into your farm, your scouting, and your young players.

When you get three cards in RISK, you can trade them in. But, the longer you wait, the more valuable they become. The Twins could have 'traded their cards in' a couple of years ago, resigning Hunter and retaining Santana, if only for the year. But the value wasn't their. They hadn't built up their armies enough. Plus, the AL Central (Africa) was exceptionally strong. Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, and even KC, after a brief feint at respectability, have all regressed or are regressing.

So now the Twins have waited. They have five cards, representing prospects, revenue, etc. They have some strong armies on the board: Mauer is a X, Morneau is a X, Nathan is statistically a X if he can ever get it done against the Yankees. What do they lack?

If you look at the Yankees or Phillies, you see a couple of X's in the heart of the order, and at least a V at the top, and maybe another V down lower. I'd argue that after two great years, Span is qualified to be a V. Unfortunately, the Twins have been trotting out I's in the number 2 spot. That has to change. They need someone equivalent to Damon or Victorino at least in the spot. Polanco looks nice.

But even more important, they need a X starting pitcher. An Ace. Forget the regular season, forget 7-8 medium grade starters. The high payroll Yankees showed you only need three, and one of them needs to be a horse. Blackburn has the guts, Baker has the stuff, Liriano had the stuff, but maybe only Slowey has enough of a combo to at least be Lee-like, and he is coming off an injury.

My recommendation, then: Go all in now--trade your cards. You have to. New stadium. Several in their prime players coming of great (and repeated) seasons. The best looking bunch of prospects in a while. Go after Halladay. I know he has a no-trade clause, but start the offer at Baker-Ramos-Hicks and see what happens. Offer him a mutual option for 25 Million for 2011, just so he has insurance. Let him make a playoff run with a great team and see what happens--if he kicks ass, he's in line for a better contract than if he just toils away in Toronto. If he bombs, he's way better off than if he was a 33 year old free agent coming of a down season. The Twins should have a great relief corp, hopefully great defense, and a good to great offense. What's not to like?

I love the prospects, but Ramos is expendable with Mauer locked up, and Hicks is more potential right now than reality; plus you still have Revere, Morales, Benson. I like Baker, but I have no faith he'll ever develop into a bulldog ace. At absolute best, he's A.J. Burnett, dazziling one night, and shaking his head in disbelief the next.

I'm calling my shot--the Twins get their ace, their Morris, their Viola, their Halladay, and their Championship.

30 Cents on the Dollar = 2B Indifference

2009-11-17T13:43:29Z

The Twins are talking to Cabrera about playing 2b next year and the blogosphere seems to be united against them doing that. Why? If the Twins can sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal in the 3-5 million per season contract, wouldn’t that be cheaper than signing Placido Palanco. I am not advocating that Cabrera is better by any means as he clearly is not. But how much of a down grade is he really. I ask this cause I read on a blog how Cabrera has a .322 OBP for his career and Polanco has a .331 OBP and is so much better suited for the number two spot in the lineup. Well lets take a look at their career lines and last 3 seasons and make comparisons.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5900

Last 3 years	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	LAA	155	638	101	192	35	1	8	86	44	64	20	4	.301	.345	.397	.742
2008	CWS	161	661	93	186	33	1	8	57	56	71	19	6	.281	.334	.371	.705
2009	MIN	59	242	42	69	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.285	.309	.426	.735
2009	OAK	101	414	41	116	23	0	4	41	25	39	11	4	.280	.318	.365	.683
Career		1732	6618	882	1817	410	32	114	761	469	635	197	49	.275	.322	.398	.719

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6049

Last 3 years

Team

2010 Twins Home Opener/Saturday Jersey and Primary Road Jersey

So, today they debuted. I was not suprised by the home jersey, the 1961 version when the Twins came to Minnesota and bettered their history from the years in Washington D.C. (I do count the '24 World Series Championship as our own as it technically is.). I did like the fact they did keep the all blue TC hat. I was never a fan of the red/blue combo of the 70's. Tho more on that in just a little bit. Anyways, a nice touch of old along with the uni's we have donned since the great year of 1987.

As for the Road jerseys, as soon as I saw it, I liked it......alot. While it does keep the traditional grey look, thankfully, the "Minnesota" font doesn't look so bland anymore. It now has a little zing and class. I also like that the pinstripes are gone. Don't get me wrong, I like pinstripes, just on home jerseys's. Seeing two teams play each other and sporting stripes is just a bit overkill on the eye's. I know some favored it, but I'm happy the 70's baby blue uni's remain in jersey hell. I'd rather have my eyes gouged out with a rusty spoon picked up from a Minnesota road after plowing and salting or be forced to watch Roseanne Barr porn for the rest of my life then see those K.C. Royals reject looking things come back. Apologies to K.C. fan's but I always hated the baby blue look. I never watched road games on 9 as a kid until they went to grey because I hated the color so much. Stay gone and remain in the bowels of Earth! While I'm not sure if it was official or they just had him wearing it, I'm concerned about the road hat. I never cared for a blue skull dome with red bill or red skull dome with blue bill. Those old 70's TC hats just looked cheesy. Keep the all blue TC hat for home and road games. It looks like the "M" hat has finally died. While I liked it when it came out, by the mid 90's, it had worn thin.

Love the new primary logo, the "Minnesota Baseball Club" one. A nice classic look with the new style logo. And hat's off to the 1st year in the Target logo.

I hope the road uni's stay around a long time. But as I was looking at the classic '61 home jersey and the ones we've had since '87, I started thinking. I liked the look back then and the one now. Sorry, the early 80's look can go where the baby blue uni's are. But I was thinking, maybe starting in 2011, a whole new primary home uni all together. A mix of old and new? My thought was, though I know won't happen, keep the off white jersey of 1961, the pinstripes, the 1987 font, but invert the colors? Instead of red with blue outline, reverse it to mesh with the classic 1961 look. the 1987 font with red outline and blue lettering? Drop the front number, yuck, and no name on the back. A nice clean look of old and new all together for the next 30 years.

What did everyone else think of the new uni's or my thoughts. And I know I'm gonna have to duck about the baby blue uni's......uh oh, here comes the first tomato..........

Organization Review (Relief Pitchers)

2009-11-15T23:47:15Z

This will be the final installment of the review of the top players in the organization on a position basis. Historically, the Twins have had a dominant bullpen. That all changed in 2008 when Pat Neshek was lost to injury and the Twin's strength became a glaring weakness. There haven't been any top relievers coming up from the minors during this time of need, however, that appears to be changing. The Twins again have several strong bullpen arms who will be ready later next year if not out of spring training.

The Tenth ranked reliever is a young man who was the Twins second first round pick in 2008, Carlos Gutierrez. In an unusual move for the Twins, Guttierez reported straight to the Ft. Myers Miracle following the draft. The Twins have stated that they would like to convert the former U of Miami closer to a starter, yet, all 16 of his appearances in 2008 were out of the Miracle bullpen. Gutierrez had a 3-1 record, 2.10 ERA and 19K/7BB in 25.2 innings to rank as the 11th best pitcher in 2008. This season Gutierrez returned to Ft. Myers as a starter, where he was excellent in 11 games (54.2 innings) with a 2-3 record, 1.32ERA and 33K/22BB earning a mid-season promotion to New Britain. While at New Britain, the innings began to wear on Gutierrez who had arm surgery while in college. He made six starts before moving to the Rock Cat bullpen, appearing in 22 games (52.1 innings) with a 1-3 record, 6.19ERA and 32K/24BB. Based on his performance at Ft. Myers, Gutierrez would have been rated amongst the top five pitchers in the organization. Although it is unknown how much of his problems at New Britain were related to the quality of hitters in AA, it is safe to assume that the bigger problem was the number of innings pitched coming off surgery a few years ago. After moving to the New Britain bullpen, Gutierrez did not allow a run in eight of his last ten appearances during which time he had an excellent 2.25ERA. Unfortunately, one cannot discount the games that he started at New Britain, thus, Gutierrez finished as my 17th ranked pitcher. It is likely that the Twins will return him to a starting role again next spring, however, to date he has been more effective as a reliever during his brief time with the organization.

The ninth ranked reliever is a young man from Moscow, Russia who signed with the organization in August, 2007. Andrey Lobanov began his career with the GCL Twins in 2008 where he had a 3-1 record and 3.54ERA in 9 games (20.1 innings) with 17K/3BB. The young lefty also made one shutout appearance with the Miracle when he struck out three and walked one in 2.0 innings to finish his rookie season in North America as my 44th ranked pitcher. This season the 19 year old Lobanov returned to the GCL Twins where he had numbers that were nearly unbelievable. In 15 games (22.0 innings), Lobanov had a 2-1 record, 7 saves, 0.82ERA, 0.68WHIP and 35 strikeouts with only one walk. No matter how you look at it: 35 strikeouts in 22.0 innings (1.59K/inning), a 35:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1 walk in 35 innings (0.26 walks/9 innings), or an unbelievable 2.333 Dominance Ratio (Strikeouts/hits+walks)...Lobanov was virtually unhittable. His dominance of GCL hitters put him as my 16th ranked pitcher, which means that three of the organization's top 20 pitchers were with the GCL Twins. Can Lobanov continue to dominate hitters at higher levels beginning next year? Only time will tell!

Early this season the Twins picked up hard throwing right handed reliever Juan Morillo from the Colorado Rockies. Morillo pitched briefly with the Twins, appearing in 3 games (2.0 innings) with 1K/3BB and a 22.50ERA. Morillo, who is capable of throwing a fastball approaching 100mph, has struggled throughout his career with control. There are indications that he made some progress at Rochester where he struck out 87 in 67.0 innings with 51 walks. The Twins were recently forced to make a decision on Morillo who would have become a minor league free agent had they not added him to their 40-man roster last week. That decision means Morillo will again be with the team next spring, yet, he is out of options and the Twins will need to keep him on their 25-man roster or again risk losing him through waivers. Morillo finished his season in Rochester with a 6-6 record and 3.90ERA as the 15th ranked pitcher and eighth ranked reliever in the organization.

Robert Delaney is the seventh ranked reliever and fourteenth ranked pitcher. Delaney had a remarkable 2008 season, when he was named the Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year and also ranked as my top pitcher in the organization. Delaney began his award winning season in Ft. Myers where he appeared in 23 games (31.2 innings) with a 1-2 record, 13 saves, 1.42ERA and 34K/4BB. He moved up to New Britain mid-season where he appeared in another 23 games (34.1 innings) with a 2-1 record, 5 saves, 1.05ERA, 0.79WHIP and 38K/7BB. Delaney began this season back at New Britain where he was again excellent, appearing in 22 games (36.0 innings) with a 1-1 record, 2.00ERA and 40K/6BB. Delaney moved up to AAA Rochester where he appeared in 36 games (47.2 innings) with a 7-3 record, 7 saves, 4.53ERA and 38K/15BB. Delaney finished his season with 78 strikeouts in 73.2 innings and a 0.813 Dominance Ratio. Although his numbers weren't anything like his 2008 season, Delaney was excellent this year in the highest levels of the minor leagues to finish as my 14th ranked pitcher.

The sixth ranked reliever is a young lefty who was a 25th round pick in 2007, Spencer Steedley. Steedley began his 2008 season at Beloit where he had a 2.14ERA and 5-3 record in 31 games (46.1 innings) with 8 saves and 59K/17BB. That performance earned Steedley a promotion to Ft. Myers where he appeared in 15 games, including four starts for 28.2 innings. Steedley had a 1-4 record, 1 save, 6.59ERA and 19K/19BB for the Miracle to finish 2008 as the 52nd ranked pitcher. Steedley returned to Ft. Myers this spring where he had a 4-0 record and 6 saves in 35 games (50.1 innings) with a 1.79ERA and 46K/18BB. He again earned a mid-season promotion to New Britain where he was very good, picking up a 2-1 record in 20 games (18.2 innings) with a 3.38ERA and 16K/10BB. Steedley's performance this season ranked him as my 12th ranked pitcher and earned him an assignment from the Twins to the Arizona Fall League.

Santos Arias is another young man who keeps moving in and out of the starting rotation. Arias spent 2008 with the Beloit Snappers where he appeared in 30 games (15 starts for 110.0 innings), with a 5-6 record, 4 saves, 3.27ERA and 91K/29BB to finish as my 26th ranked pitcher. This season Arias moved up to Ft. Myers where he spent most of his season working out of their bullpen. Arias, who started in 9 of his 38 games, finished his 2009 season with a 6-3 record, 3 saves, 2.15ERA and 72K/27BB in 100.2 innings. My tenth best pitcher and fifth ranked reliever, Steedley missed qualifying for the FSL lead in several categories by only a handful of innings. Had he qualified, Arias would have had the league's second best ERA and tied with teammate Steven Hirschfield for the best WHIP (1.06). Look for Arias to move up to New Britain next year, however, their is some risk that this young man from the Dominican Republic could be lost in the Rule V draft if not added to the Twins 40-man roster.

The fourth ranked reliever is former first round pick, Kyle Waldrop. We all know about his career which saw him move quickly through the organization, arriving in Ft. Myers in his third season following his draft out of high school. Unfortunately, Waldrop began to have arm problems and missed all of 2008 with a right shoulder injury. He returned this season, putting in time at both Ft. Myers and New Britain. Waldrop appeared in 20 games for the Miracle with a 3-2 record, 3.09ERA and 20K/7BB in 35.0 innings. Waldrop finished his season at New Britain where he was one of the more reliable relievers in the league. He had a 2-3 record with a 1.46ERA in 31 games (55.2 innings) with 30K/18BB to rank as the 7th best pitcher in the organization. Waldrop had always been a starter prior to his injury and it remains to be seen if the Twins will return him to a starting rotation next year. That is if he is with the Twins. Will the Twins add Waldrop to their 40-man roster? If not, he will be eligible to be a minor league free-agent. Will he sign with the Twins if not added to the 40-man roster?

The third ranked reliever is a wonderful story of a young man who the Twins signed as a non-drafted free agent in June, 2008. Joe Testa had a good rookie season with the Twins pitching for their GCL team where he had a 2-0 record and 1.32ERA in 7 games (11.0 innings) with 17K/1BB. Testa was fortunate to have the opportunity to move across the parking lot to help out the Miracle bullpen where he appeared in four games (2 starts for 14.2 innings) with a 1-0 record, 4.91ERA and 13K/7BB.....to rank as the 23rd best pitcher in the organization. Testa began this season at Beloit where he pitched so well that he was the Snapper's lone all-star. Testa appeared in 25 games for Beloit (1 start and 45.2 innings) with a 0-2 record, 2.56ERA and 63K/23BB. Testa moved up to Ft. Myers following the all-star game where he pitched better than during the first half. Testa appeared in 21 games (37.0 innings) out of the Miracle bullpen with a 5-0 record, 1 save, 1.22ERA, 1.27WHIP and 53K/18BB. Testa finished his season with 116 strikeouts in 82.2 innings and a 1.208 Dominance Ratio which is higher than any other pitcher in the organization playing higher than rookie ball and good for a ranking as the sixth best pitcher in the organization.

The second ranked reliever is Anthony Slama who the Twins drafted out of the University of San Diego in the 39th round of the 2006 draft. Slama had a year every bit as good as Delaney last year, appearing in 51 games (71.0 innings) for the Miracle with a 4-1 record, an organization high 25 saves, 1.01ERA, 0.94WHIP and 110K/24BB. Slama, who ranked as my third best pitcher in 2008, moved up to New Britain this spring where he appeared in 51 games (65.1 innings) with a 4-2 record, 2.48ERA, 1.19WHIP and 93K/32BB. With some wondering why Slama wasn't being called up by the Twins, he was promoted late in the season to Rochester where he appeard in 11 games (15.2 innings) with a 0-2 record, 4 saves, 3.45ERA, 19K/8BB and combined 1.155 Dominance Ratio. Slama again led the organization with 29 saves and his 25 saves for New Britain led the Eastern League even though he spent nearly the last month of his season in AAA. Slama's ERA at Rochester is a bit misleading as he didn't allow an earned run in nine of his eleven games with five of his six earned runs coming in one game shortly after his promotion. Slama is the fifth ranked pitcher in the organization and a young man who should see his first duty with the Twins sometime next summer.

The top ranked reliever and top ranked pitcher is a young man who was an excellent starter until this past spring. Alex Burnett, who was a 12th round pick in the 2005 draft, was only 20 when he began the 2008 season in the Ft. Myers starting rotation. Burnett, who was one of the Miracle's best starters throughout the season, finished with a 8-6 record, 3.76ERA and 84K/36BB in 143.2 innings to rank as the 25th best pitcher. Something the Twins saw in Burnett caused them to move him to the bullpen this year and he began his season back at Ft. Myers as a short reliever. Burnett had a fantastic beginning to his season, appearing in 18 games (22.2 innings) with a 2-1 record, 4 saves, 1.99ERA, 0.93WHIP and 26K/7BB. Burnett earned a promotion to New Britain where he was the team's primary closer once Anthony Slama moved up to Rochester. So many pitchers hit a wall when promoted to AA, but not Burnett. Rather, he was as good if not better than at Ft. Myers, appearing in 40 games (55.1 innings) with a 1-2 record, 9 saves, 1.79ERA, 0.99WHIP and 52K/19BB. There are several short relievers who will likely begin their season at Rochester which may cause the Twins to return Burnett to New Britain to start next season. But don't expect him to stay there long as Alex Burnett may be the best of all the excellent short relievers working to achieve that final dream and pull on a Twins jersey for the first time.

On Roy, Ramos, and RISK

2009-11-14T19:59:04Z

I, shall we say, "enjoy" the stat side of baseball. I liked math and science in school, but ultimately got a degree in English. I realize stats are a very real part of the game, but for me there is poetry as well. Attempting to reduce everything to some quantifiable stat kind of wears me out.

I suppose I just haven't looked hard enough, but since the end of Batgirl, Twins bloggers with a more artistic point of view seem to be few and far between, with, perhaps, the exception of Howard Sinker. TwinkieTown does have some fantastic content though, and I truly enjoy visiting. After the jump, I will attempt to show how baseball is like the game of RISK (although it seems some would prefer to compare it to Dungeons and Dragons; more on that later.) If you have never played RISK, you probably don't need to bother reading on.

A lot of times I read the comments section of sites like this and I feel I've stepped into some discussion forum for avid Dungeons and Dragons players. Its almost as if the stats were designed primarily so they would have cool sounding acronyms, ones that also sound rather weapon-like.

"My pitcher-mage, Har-Den, with the +2 Staff of Slurving Slide, has a 2.1 WAR. You have no chance."

"But my hitter-barbarian, Ugg-la, has the +3 Bashing Bat of Beautiful Bombs, so I trump you. Plus, your Elf-Shortsop, O-Cab, is shackled with the Pantaloons of Putrid Peripherals, rendering him a -.94883 UZR."

"Well, my mage-pitcher Har-Den casts the spell of Regression to the Mean on Ugg-la. What say you, SABR-Master?"

They roll their 11 sided die, the SABR-Master's work computer chugs away agonizingly slow, because he is simultaneously trying to check Gleeman's link to a Dancing Dog video. Eventually it spits out an answer:

"According to my calculations, while throwing the pitch, Har-Den's arm detaches at the shoulder. Ugg-la hits the ball, but the arm, trailing the play, makes a barehanded catch. I decree Ugg-la out."

While I've never played Dungeons and Dragons, I did watch the saturday morning cartoon, and for a while I played a cheap knock off version called Tunnels and Trolls. And I've played Final Fantasy. And I prefer games where you can actually control the player, rather than just letting the computer run probability tests--even if it means I keep walking off the same bridge over and over again. (Hey, video game makers--how about some 2-D games for us thirty-somethings? I'm tired of my nephews yelling at me for swiping them with my Lego Lightsaber.)

HOWEVER, I have to admit that when comparing baseball to games, roll of the dice, probability type games seem to make a better fit, and for me, the best comparison is the game of RISK. Here are the ground rules:

This is an AL only game. The Yankees control Asia, the Red Sox are Europe, the Rays are currently Australia (although at times the Blue Jays are.) The Angels currently control North America, the Twins are South America, and the rest of the AL Central is Africa.

For the purposes of this analogy, players are armies. Only when you dip into the tray for reinforcements, whatever you happen to pull out you get to keep, whether it's a I or a X. (There are a lot more I's than X's.) I'll use the version of RISK I played growing up when it comes to the Army denotations:

X's (tens) = Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez. Truly elite players. Kind of like getting an A from Sickels.

V's (fives) = All-Star players. Joe Nathan. Derek Jeter. Really good, but still a huge difference from a X.

III's (threes) = Slightly above average guys. Think Cuddyer.

I's (ones) = Filler. Frontline cannon/Rivera fodder. LNP.

In this game, you get to roll the number of dice equal to your Army, so Mariano Rivera gets 10 die and Brendan Harris gets one. Rivera has ten chances to roll a six, and even if Harris rolls a six on his one dice, he loses, because tie goes to the pitcher/defender. Harris has to roll a six, and Rivera has to NOT roll a six on any of his ten dice in order to prevail. I haven't actually checked the math on this, but it feels about right. Harris has almost no chance of getting to River. But, there is hope. You've got to roll the die.

Check back later for Part II, where I discuss "Trading in Cards," the Euro-Asian conflict between the Yankees and Sox, and the folly of attacking the Middle East.

Minor League Report...November 14, 2009

2009-11-14T14:34:41Z

There were several player moves this week including Seth Stohs reporting from Arizona yesterday that Michael McCardell has left the Mesa Solar Sox to have some bone chips removed from his pitching elbow. The Twins removed Justin Huber and Armando Gabino from their 40-man roster. Huber was outrighted to Rochester and will remain with the organization next year. Gabino was claimed by Baltimore. The Twins then added hard throwing righthander Jose Morillo to their 40-man roster. The Twins have also released catcher Jeff Christy and outfielder Ozzie Lewis. The Twins have signed three of their minor league free agents, Rochester pitcher Jose Lugo, New Britain shortstop Yancarlos Ortiz and Ft. Myers pitcher Henry Santos. Former Minor League Player of the Year David Winfree is a minor league free agent and word is that the Twins are very interested in re-signing him.

The Puerto Rico winter league got started on Thursday. The team to watch is Mayaguez who has four Twins on their roster, Nelvin Fuentes, Ryan Mullins, Kennys Vargas and Jose Morales. Joe Christensen is reporting that Danny Valencia will be playing winter ball somewhere for a month or so. Christensen is also reporting that Pat Neshek's rehab is going very well.

Seth published an excellent report of last night's Mesa Solar Sox game including personal observations of three of the Twins top prospects, Rene Tosoni, Chris Parmalee and Steve Singleton. The Solar Sox saw their six game winning streak come to an end on Thursday and now have a 12-14 record, 3.5 games out of first place with less than two weeks remaining in their short fall season.

Spencer Steedley had a nice game last night to lower his ERA to 3.75 in 10 games (12.0 innings). Steedley's problem this fall has been his control as he has walked 12 batters with 7 strikeouts. Alex Burnett continues to be a rising star for the Twins. He has appeared in 8 games (8.2 innings) with a 3.12ERA and 9K/9BB. Starter Steven Hirschfield has had a couple rough outings but has been better of late as he has gotten his ERA down to 9.95. In 8 games (3 starts) with 12.2 innings, Hirschfield has 14K/6BB. Tosoni is hitting .240/.318/.373 with one home run in 75 at bats. All indications from Seth's report is that Tosoni is an excellent defensive outfielder who has to work on hitting left handed pitchers. Chris Parmalee has 3 home runs in 69 at bats while hitting .217/.296/.478. Steve Singleton has been the best Twins hitter for the Sox, hitting .281/.284/.484 with 3 home runs in 64 at bats.

The lone Twin to appear for Mayaguez in Puerto Rico has been Nelvin Fuentes who pitched 1.1 inning of shutout ball yesterday with a hit and 1K/1BB. Fuentes is a young man who the Twins picked in the 16th round of the 2007 draft. After missing all of 2008, he had a wonderful season this past summer for the GCL Twins where he appeared in 12 games (21.0 innings) with a 1.29ERA and 24K/4BB. He is another young left handed reliever who may have bright future in the Twins organization.

Alexi Casilla is now playing regularly for Gigantes del Cibao in the DWL. Casilla, who has appeared in 5 games with 21 at bats, is hitting .190/.190/.333. Since Casilla's arrival, Estarlin De Los Santos has played sparingly yet is hitting very well at .277/.320/.319 in 47 at bats.

Aragua has been playing better of late and the Tigres are now 9.5 games out of first place with a 12-17 record. The scare a week ago was reports that Wilson Ramos had injured his knee. It does not appear to be serious as Ramos returned to pinch hit on Saturday with several appearances as DH before catching on Thursday. Ramos continues to be this winter's hitting star in the VWL at .382/.451/.697 with 6 home runs and 26 RBI although he was only 3-12 this week as he deals with his injury. Dustin Martin was 3-14 this week with a home run and 2 RBI. Martin is hitting .281/.398/.461 in 89 at bats with 4 home runs and 18 RBI. Justin Huber is hitting .282/.385/.474 in 78 at bats with 3 home runs and 19 RBI. Edgar Ibarra made two appearances this week, pitching 0.1 inning with 0 hits, 1 run and 1K/1BB.

Armando Gabino, who is now an ex-Twin, has appeared in 3 games for Aguilas in the DWL with a 1-1 record and 3.00ERA and 2K/1BB.

Next week should be an exciting week for many top prospects as the Twins will have to finalize their 40-man roster by Friday. With the five free agents (Crede, Pavano, Redmond, Cabrera and Mahay) departing the roster and the three players added who were on the 60-day disabled list (Slowey, Bonser and Neshek), the roster stands at 36. The Twins normally like to have a roster spot available so they can make a Rule V pick, yet, they have 6-8 players who may be at risk of being drafted if exposed to the Rule V draft. Will they make additional moves this week to clear more openings on the roster? It seems a given that Deolis Guerra, Alex Burnett and Danny Valencia will be added. But what about Santos Arias, Rob Delaney, Steve Singleton, Brian Dinkelman, Loek VanMil or Winston Marquez?

There will not be a report next week as I will be out of town at a seminar.

Prediction Time (My Guess at 2010 Organizational teams)

2009-11-14T03:13:46Z

MLB Twins

1. Denard Span - CF

2. Joe Mauer- C

3. Michael Cuddyer - RF/1B

4. Justin Morneau - 1B

5. Jason Kubel - DH/OF

6. Delmon Young - LF

7. J.J. Hardy - SS

8. Danny Valencia - 3B

9. Nick Punto - 2B/ SS

---

Matt Tolbert- 3B/2B (May start off season as actual starter untill Valencia is officially up)

Brendon Harris- SS/3B

Jose Morales- C

Dustin Martin- CF/RF

---

SP 1 Scott Baker

SP 2 Nick Blackburn

SP 3 Ben Sheets 2010 5.0M with incentives that can earn him up to 5.5M, 2011 6.5M (buyout available) with player and or team option for 2012 at 6.25M

SP 4 Kevin Slowey

SP 5 Brian Duensing

CL - Joe Nathan

SU - Matt Guerrier

RP - Jon Rauch

RP- Jose Mijares

RP- Jesse Crain

RP- Pat Neshek (early reports look good and exciting again)

LR(loogy)- Francisco Liriano

AAA Rochester Red Wings (International League)

CF- Brandon Roberts

2B- Steven Tolleson 40 man

LF- Rene Tosoni

1B- Brock Peterson

RF- David Winfree 40 man? (although a likely RULE 5 selection by another team or is he a minor league FA now???)

DH- Eric Lis

C - Wilson Ramos 40 man

SS - Trevor Plouffe 40 man

3B - Matthew Macri

----

SS- Yancarlos Ortiz

2B/LF- Brian Dinkelman

C - Drew Butera 40 man

Minor League FA or........ Pridie, Moses, Huber, Christy, maybe da lucas Hughes? someone to that effect.....

---

SP Jeff Manship 40 man

SP Anthony Swarzak 40 man

SP Boof Bonser* (with the old up by July 1st or Becomes FA, I.E. Bobby Keppel Last year.)

SP Matt Fox

SP Reid Santos or Minor league FA (Keppel, Dickey, someone to that effect) maaaaybe even McCardell or DeVries

-CL- Anthony Slama

SU- Robert Delaney 40 man

RP- ~~Juan Morillo 40 man~~ Cole DeVries

RP- Jose Lugo 40 man

RP- Kyle Waldrop (probably decent to good friends with Fox)

RP- Jason Jones (I think he rebounds a little bit)

LR(loogy)- Ryan Mullins

AA New Britain Rock Cats (Eastern League)

C - Jair Fernandez

1B- Whitney Robbins

2B- Steven Singleton

SS- Toby Gardenhire

3B- Ramon Santana

DH - Rene Leveret

CF - Ben Revere

OF/1B - Christopher Parmelee

OF - Juan Portes

---

3B/LF/2B/ DH- Luke Hughes 40 man (time for him too explode, or probably a good trade candidate or even a future DFA)

OF- Mark Dolenc

C- Danny Lehmann

SS/2B- Chris Cates

---

SP Michael McCardell 40 man

SP Deolis Guerra 40 man

SP David Bromberg

SP Tyler Robertson

SP Steven Hirshfeld

-CL- Carlos Gutierrez 40 man (I think he moves up to Rochester rather quickly, BUT as a SP or RP ?)

SU- Alex Burnett

RP- Spencer Steedley

RP- Loek Van Mil

RP- Michael Tarsi (southpaw)

RP- Blair Erickson

LR- Henry Arias

A+ Ft. Myers Miracle (Florida State League)

C- Alexander Soto (BIG year for him pretty much flopped last year, I expect a good campaign from him in 2010)

1B- Jonathan Waltenbury ( time for the big Canadian to do if not, die, gonna be tough in a pitchers league)

2B- James Beresford

SS- Estarlin De Los Santos

3B- Deibinson Romero or Nate Hanson (D.J. no Longer a REAL prospect, but could be a good org. filler)

DH- Hanson/ Romero

OF - Angel Morales

OF - Evan Bigley

~~OF -Ozzie Lewis~~ Joe Benson (I think Joe moves up to New Britain by mid-season)

---

C- Allen de san Miguel

2B/3B- Nick Romero

INF- Andy Thompson (too soon to retire?)

OF/INF Dominic de la Osa

---

SP Santos Arias

SP Bobby Lanigan

SP Kyle Gibson (I changed him and Stuiffbergen around, thanks Seth! )

SP Bradley Tippett

SP Winston Marquez

-CL- Billy Bullock (should be in AA soon to help replace Gutierrez)

SU- Mathew Williams (had a nice rebound season in '09, I expect to see him in New Britian rather soon as well)

RP- Joe Testa (the next Rob Delaney??? only a southpaw?)

RP- Michael Allen

RP- Steven Blevins

RP- Tony Davis (gotta be buds with Bullock, another '09 draftee) /// Steven Blevins

RP- Benjamin Tootle (Pretty sure he'll start off at Beloit, but for now I place him here)

A Beloit Snappers (Midwest League)

C- Chris 'Perry' Herrmann (can play a multitued of positions)

1B- P.M. Klingsberg

2B- Derek McCallum

SS- ~~Ladendorf~~ - Brian Dozier (the rock or max or whatever, but he's good, and i like him much more than McCallum)

3B - Anderson Hidalgo

DH - Daniel Rams (he can catch too, but is not a very polished catcher to date)

CF- Aaron Hicks

OF - Wang-Wei Lin (this is being aggresive with him, but Roger is right about him being good/great when healthy)

OF - Steven Liddle

-----

1B- Michael Gonzalez

C- Toby Streich

UTL.- Reggie Williams

OF - Jonathan Goncalves

---

SP Tom Stuiffbergen

SP Liam Hendriks

SP Matt Bashore

SP Dan Osterbrock

SP Brady Stillings

-CL-Matthew Tone (looks like one hell of a draft pick in '09 in a draft with several decent selections, could he start?)

RP - Zach See

RP- 'Big' Daniel Berlind

RP- Bruce Pugh

RP- Edgar Ibarra

RP- Dakota Watts

LR- Kane Holbrooks

**** Shooter Hunt (remember him? , big time talent but can't pitch the ball over the plate)

E-Towns players

DH Josmil Pinto

P Adrian Salcedo

P Brett Hermson

OF Danny Ortiz (remember him ?? - i sure do )

P Andrei Lobanov

P Martie Garcia

P Mike Tonkin

C Buddy Monroe

P Angelo Sanchez

P Kelvin Mota

Gulf- Coast Players

SS Miguel Angel Sano

OF Max Kepler

OF Oswaldo Arcia

SS Jorge Palanco

SS Nick Lockwood

SS Daniel Santana

OF Candido Pimentel

OF Romy Trinidad

1B Kennys Vargas

P Blayne Weller ( i see him being in E-Town awfully quick)

P Jean Mijares

ANYBODY out there have any major objections or would like to enlighten me on any glaring omissions or just simply have any feed back at all?

Later, I think I'll put asteriks next to players who were first round picks or supplamental first rounders (sandwich round)

OK great !!!

everbody have a GREAT WEEKEND !!!!

and peace out !!!

Go Twins in 2010

New Uniforms on Monday

2009-11-13T17:53:28Z

From the Startribune... "The Twins are scheduled to unveil a new-look road uniform along with subtle changes to their home uniform Monday at IDS Crystal Court. The Twins have worn the same primary home and road uniforms since 1987."

I'm going to guess that any changes will be minor but there is a part of me that worries someone "creative" is in charge of this and will try to make a splash. I think the Twins already have some of the best jerseys in baseball and I really hope they do not try to reinvent the wheel here. So please no Pixie vests, no Red jerseys...

I'm looking forward to Monday...

Did Dock Ellis Pitch a No-No on LSD?

2009-11-13T03:14:28Z

From Big League Stew. This video was made based on an interview Ellis did. According to Dock, the no-hitter he pitched against the San Diego Padres, on June 12, 1970, was done while he was "High as a Georgia pine." Is it even possible to pitch a no-hitter while on acid?

Ellis said, "I can only remember bits and pieces of the game. I was psyched. I had a feeling of euphoria. I was zeroed in on the (catcher's) glove, but I didn't hit the glove too much. I remember hitting a couple of batters and the bases were loaded two or three times. The ball was small sometimes, the ball was large sometimes, sometimes I saw the catcher, sometimes I didn't. Sometimes I tried to stare the hitter down and throw while I was looking at him. I chewed my gum until it turned to powder. I started having a crazy idea in the fourth inning that Richard Nixon was the home plate umpire, and once I thought I was pitching a baseball to Jimi Hendrix, who to me was holding a guitar and swinging it over the plate. They say I had about three to four fielding chances. I remember diving out of the way of a ball I thought was a line drive. I jumped, but the ball wasn't hit hard and never reached me."

Trade Value Calculator

2009-11-12T04:00:16Z

This is the time of year where everyone hopes to trade unwanted Twins for unwanted all stars. How much are some Twins worth? More than I thought. How much are some stars worth? Less than I thought. The trade value calculator is based on the idea that a team should be willing to trade assets equal to a players value minus his salary. This is why Joe Nathan is going nowhere. He is a good player being paid exactly what he's worth.

Prospect valuations courtesy of Victor Wang and 2009 Hardball Times. Prospect Rankings courtesy of John Sickles and Baseball America. Trade Value spreadsheet courtesy of Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Boxscore

Glen Perkins

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$0.4	1.0	$4.7	$4.3
2011	$2.0	1.0	$4.9	$2.9		40%
2012	$2.9	1.0	$4.9	$2.0		60%
2013	$3.9	1.0	$4.9	$1.0		80%
FA Picks
Total	$9.2	4.0	$19.4	$10.2


Brandon Phillips

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$6.8	3.0	$13.7	$6.9
2011	$11.0	2.8	$12.8	$1.8
2012	$12.0	2.5	$11.7	-$0.4
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$29.8	8.3	$43.1	$13.3

Dan Uggla

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$8.0	2.9	$13.3			60%
2011	$10.0	2.7	$12.6			80%
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$18.0	5.6	$30.8	$12.8

Alexi Casilla

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$0.4	0.2	$1.1
2011	$1.0	0.2	$1.3
2012	$1.5	0.2	$1.3	-$0.2
2013	$2.0	0.2	$1.3	-$0.7
FA Picks
Total	$4.9	0.8	$5.0	$0.1

Josh Johnson

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$9.0	5.1	$23.2	$14.2
2011	$15.0	5.1	$23.4	$8.4
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$24.0	10.2	$51.5	$27.5

Roy Halladay

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2010	$15.7	7.0	$31.7	$16.0
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$15.7	7.0	$36.7	$21.0

		Pitchers	Hitters
1to10		15M	37M
11to25		16M	25M
25to50		16M	23M
51to75		12M	14M
76to100		10M	12M


Grade B Hitters			5.5M
Grade B Pitchers			7.3M
Grade C Hitters < 22			0.7M
Grade C Hitters		> 23	0.5M
Grade C Pichers		< 23	2.1M
Grade C Pichers > 23			1.5M

Based on the above estimates a trade for Uggla or Phillips could be based around Perkins plus. Johnson or Halladay would require one of Revere, Ramos, Hicks plus some C level pitchers with upside. Alexi Casilla has no trade value unless someone is gambling on his 2008 showing. Here is John Sickles latest top 20 for the twins http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/1091423/top-20-minnesota-twins-prospects.

Feel free to use your own WAR estimates. I was fairly conservative. I used 3 year unregressed weighted averages to estimate pitcher FIP and batter wOBA. I used 3 year regressed weighted averages for UZR. National league players were docked 0.25 WAR for not playing in the big boy league. Comments or other suggestions for trade targets welcome.

Organization Review (Starting Pitching)

2009-11-11T23:19:55Z

The Twins have a minor league system that develops a continuous supply of starting pitchers. Beginning with Scott Baker, who arrived in 2005, the Twins staff has seen Garza, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Liriano and Bonser (the last two were obtained by trade) step up to become quality major league starters. Add Swarzak, Manship and Duensing, who made their first appearances this season, and you have ten starting pitchers who have stepped up when needed over the past five years. What is most interesting is that none of these (other than Liriano in 2005) would have been considered as top prospects by those who rank minor league systems and prospects. Rather, they are a group of fine young athletes who have bought into what the organization teaches, an organization that continues to turn out solid starting pitchers.

It is likely that two of the three who joined the Twins in 2009 will return to Rochester next spring to fine tune their game so that they are ready for a permanent spot in the rotation when the next call comes. Who else is down on the farm who will be available later next year or in the years following? This year's top ten starters all fit the mold of what the Twins look for and all could some day find themselves toiling on the mound at Target Field.

The Tenth ranked starting pitcher in my year end ranking this season is a pitcher USA Today named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year last season, Michael McCardell. The Twins sixth round pick in 2007 out of Kutztown University, McCardell was my seventh ranked pitcher following his break-out season at Beloit during which he had a 9-4 record with a 2.86ERA. He also had 139 strikeouts with only 25 walks in 135.1 innings. McCardell moved up to Ft. Myers this spring where he had an excellent first half with a 9-6 record, 3.93ERA and 78K/16BB in 94.0 innings. McCardell earned a mid-summer promotion to New Britain where he pitched very well, yet, a couple outings took a toll on what could have been exceptional numbers. McCardell closed out his AA season with a 5-2 record, 4.10ERA and 40K/16BB in 48.1 innings to be my twenty-third ranked pitcher in 2009.

Tyler Robertson was pitching as well as anyone in the pitching rich Florida State League when his season ended in June, 2008 with what was diagnosed as shoulder tendinitis. Robertson finished with a 5-3 record, 2.72ERA and 73K/31BB in 82.2 innings to rank as my fourth best pitcher. This year he returned to Ft. Myers and accomplished two goals by pitching the entire year and pitching very well. Perhaps most important, he continued to improve throughout the year as evidenced by his 3.04 post all-star ERA. Robertson finished his season with an 8-8 record and 3.33ERA. He also had 103K/51BB in the team's second most innings pitched, 143.1, to finish 2009 as my twenty-second ranked pitcher and ninth ranked starter.

My eighth ranked starter is a young man drafted by the Twins with a supplemental first round pick in 2004, Matt Fox. Unfortunately, his arm had taken a beating during college and Fox missed all of 2005 following shoulder surgery. He returned in 2006 and 2007, however, pitching limited innings each year. Fox worked his way back into the starting rotation last year at Ft. Myers where he made 14 starts in 32 appearances with a 7-7 record and 3.37ERA. Fox struck out 99 with 33 walks in 117.2 innings to rank thirtieth in my year end rankings. This season Fox moved up to New Britain where he had an excellent season ranking amongst the Eastern League leaders with a 3.58ERA (5th in league), 120 strikeouts (3rd), 151.0 innings pitched (5th) and his 9-9 record tied him for the ninth most wins in the league. Fox's excellent season moved him up 9 spots this year to number twenty-one and should earn him a promotion to Rochester in 2010.

Brad Tippett has had a bit of an up and down career since signing with the Twins shortly before his eighteenth birthday in January, 2006. This young Australian had a solid rookie season in the Gulf Coast League before being one of the top pitchers in the Appalachian League in 2007 when he had a 7-1 record and 0.93ERA working out of the Elizabethton bullpen. Tippett earned a promotion to Beloit in spring, 2008 where he had a 2-1 record with a 4.24ERA in 13 games of relief. When the Appy League began, however, the Twins moved Tippett back to Elizabethton where they converted him to a starter. Tippett finished 2008 with a 8-3 record, 2.55ERA and 63K/9BB in 74.0 innings at Elizabethton to rank forty-first in my year end rankings. This season Tippett returned to Beloit and was the one starting pitcher the Snappers could count on every fifth day. Tippett, who was arguably one of the best pitchers in the league, compiled a 9-8 record on a team that won only 57 games and finished 26 games under .500. Tippett finished his excellent season with the league's best WHIP (1.07), fifth best ERA (3.21), with 120 strikeouts (3rd best), only 25 walks and the league's fifth most innings (151.0). Tippett's fine season earned him my nineteenth ranking as the organizaition's seventh best starter.

We all became very familiar with this year's sixth ranked starter, Jeff Manship, after he joined the Twins and pitched what he has called the game of his life the final weekend against the Royals.....to date that is! Manship joined the Twins after being drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft out of Notre Dame University. Jeff didn't sign with the Twins until August, thus, he appeared in only a few games late in the season for the GCL Twins and Miracle. Yet, those few innings with the Miracle gave us a hint of what was to come. Jeff began to rocket thru the organization the following year with a 7-1 record and 1.51ERA at Beloit before moving on to a 8-5 record and 3.15ERA in Ft. Myers. Last season, Jeff began at Ft. Myers where he compiled a 7-3 record with a 2.86ERA in 78.2 innings with 63K/20BB. The Twins moved Manship up to New Britain immediately after his start in the FSL All-Star game. Jeff pitched very well in some games at AA, yet, struggled in a few to finish with a 3-6 record, 4.46ERA and 62K/24BB in 76.2 innings to finish off an excellent 2008 season as my sixth ranked pitcher. This season began back at New Britain where Jeff was solid with a 6-4 record, 4.28ERA and 45K/20BB in 75.2 innings. As the Twins were calling pitchers up to Minnesota, Jeff moved to Rochester to fill an opening in their starting rotation. He proceded to become one of the Red Wings best starters with a 4-2 record and 3.22ERA in 50.1 innings with 30K/17BB. After not being invited to join the Twins in spring training, it had to be rewarding to Jeff to get that call to the big leagues. Based on his performance at New Britain and Rochester, Jeff had the thirteenth best season of all the pitchers. It is likely that the pitcher we saw that last Friday night of the season is a pitcher we will see much more of for many years.

In the five years I have been compiling my year end rankings, I have never had a GCL pitcher rank in my Top 20. This year I have two with Adrian Salcedo being my fifth ranked starter and ninth ranked pitcher. Salcedo had an excellent season last year in the DSL where he had a 4-4 record, 1.65ERA and 50K/8BB in 65.1 innings as a seventeen year old. Salecedo moved up to the GCL Twins this year where he was as good as anyone in the league, finishing with a 3-2 record and the league's seventh best ERA (1.46), fifth most innings (61.2), third most strikeouts (58) and league's eighth best WHIP (1.02). Perhaps most astonishing, his THREE walks were less than any pitcher in the league with more than 40 innings pitched. Salcedo won't turn 19 until late April, thus, it is likely he will spend his spring in EST before moving up to Elizabethton for the 2010 season.

The fourth ranked starter and eighth ranked pitcher is Salcedo's GCL Twins teammate, B. J. Hermsen. Hermsen was the Twins sixth round pick last year out of West Delaware, Iowa high school. Hermsen played high school ball last summer before signing with the Twins shortly before the August signing deadline. Hermsen participated in the Fall Instructional League last year then stayed in Florida for Extended Spring Training before joining the GCL Twins. Hermsen joined Salcedo, Blayne Weller and Michael Tonkin to lead the GCL Twins to their second consecutive playoff appearance. Hermsen finished his season with a 6-2 record, league third best 1.35ERA, league best 0.68 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 52.1 innings. Like Salcedo, Hermsen was a league leader with only 4 walks for his season. Hermsen, who will turn 20 next month, may move up to Elizabethton next sping but a good spring training could push him straight to Beloit.

The third ranked starting pitcher and fourth ranked pitcher overall is Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was my twenty-second ranked pitcher in 2008 following a season in which he didn't appear to be motivated at New Britain where he had a 3-8 record with a 5.67ERA in 101.2 innings with 76K/37BB. When the call came to move up to Rochester, Swarzak took advantage of the opportunity and seemed to be a different pitcher. In seven starts (45.0 innings), Swarzak had a perfect 5-0 record with a 1.80ERA and 26K/14BB. This season Swarzak was very good at Rochester where he compiled a 4-5 record with a 3.28ERA and 45K/21BB in 79.2 innings. His numbers would have been better except for a couple starts following his demotion where he allowed 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings before finishing his season with a quality start against Division champion Scranton Wilkes-Barre. When the opportunity to join the Twins arrived, Swarzak had several very good starts before several rough starts caused the Twins to send him back to Rochester. The Twins have a handful of young starters who will be fighting for one or two spots in the rotation. If Swarzak doesn't win one of those spots in spring training, it will be important that he remain mentally tough as opportunities will present themselves during the season.

The second ranked starter and third ranked pitcher this year is Steven Hirschfield. Last season Hirschfield was one of the top pitchers in the MidWest League where he led the team with a 10-5 record with an excellent 3.30ERA in 31 games (16 starts) with 80K/38BB in 109.0 innings to finish as my twenty-seventh ranked pitcher. Hirschfield returned to the bullpen this season at Ft. Myers before moving into the starting rotation mid-season getting 17 starts in 32 appearances. Hirschfield may have been the league's best pitcher (which is hard to say considering that teammate David Bromberg was the FSL Pitcher of the Year), as he finished with the league's second best ERA (2.23) and best WHIP (1.03) with 86K/31BB in 117.0 innings and a 7-7 record. Hirschfield moved up twenty-four spots in this year's ranking and certainly would need to be considered a candidate for the Twins organizaiton most improved player. Now pitching for Mesa in the Arizona Fall League, look for Hirschfield to move up to New Britain next spring.

The top ranked starting pitcher, David Bromberg, is the second ranked pitcher in my year end ranking. Bromberg was my twenty-first ranked pitcher following his 2008 season when he had a 9-10 record and 4.44ERA in 150.0 innings for the Beloit Snappers. What moved Bromberg into the upper echelons of prospects was his 177 strikeouts which led all of minor league baseball. This season Bromberg moved up to Ft. Myers where he led the Florida State League with 148 strikeouts in 153.1 innings with the second most wins in the league (13-4) and the league's fourth best ERA (2.70) and ninth best WHIP (1.23). This season was special for Bromberg, so special that he was named both the Florida State League's Pitcher of the Year and the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Some will question whether Bromberg is really an elite starter and potential future Ace? These past two seasons would seem to indicate that he just might be that good. The next big test will be next year when he makes the critical jump to AA. A similar performance to this year in AA will confirm that he just might be a future Ace?

Looking back over these past five years should make Twins fans hopeful that the stream of starting pitchers will continue to stock their rotation as needed. Add last year's first round pick Kyle Gibson to this group and odds are good that there will continue to be another arm down on the farm when needed for another five years.

The Target and Future Start Today!

2009-11-11T22:46:39Z

"You hear about the future, the future. I don't know who gets to decide when that is or when they think that is...You have a core of a lineup that can compete with anyone in the league. One of the best closers in the game. Young starting pitching that might be missing one veteran guy to show them the way...It makes a difference to have someone like that.'' - Justin Morneau

Is this the year the Twins will act, and attempt to improve their club in the offseason? I certainly hope so, and it looks as though the Twins have taken the first few steps in their attempt to improve the ballclub and give Minnesota, yet another October, but hopefully, this one will be longer.

The Twins recently traded Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for SS J.J. Hardy. This step improved the infield defense and the production from SS, however, it decreased the outfield's defense with a pitching staff that induces a lot of fly balls.

Do I like this trade? Yes, I do. However, with Gomez gone, this leaves Young in LF, Span in CF, and Cuddyer in RF. Young is terrible in LF, CF is Span's worst position of the three outfield spots, and Cuddyer is getting older and he was never very good in RF to begin with.

However, the infield defense improves enormously. Hardy provides a gold glove presence at SS, which has been lacking since Gagne manned that position in the early 80s - 90s. The infield saw a flux of players through 2B and SS. Last season, Tolbert, Punto, Harris and Cabrera all played at SS. Cabrera has seen his defense steadily decline, as good be seen while playing for the Twins. With Hardy, the Twins are assured of an excellent, gold glove caliber, defensive SS.

The Twins picked up Michael Cuddyer's option. Cuddyer had a career year in 2009 and there is some discussion and arguement about whether the Twins should have picked up Cuddy's option.

My views on this subject are pretty neutral actually. I can see both sides of the issue created on previous boards here. Yes, Cuddyer had a career year last year when he hit 32 homers while maintaining a decent average. Yet, Cuddyer has been injury riddled in his previous seasons with the Twins, and he is only getting older. Is Cuddyer worth the $10 million option that could have been used toward a free agent? In my opinion, I think he is. Cuddyer adds that extra year for Revere to polish himself in the minor leagues. The side I do not like of the $10 million is the fact that the $10 million owed to Cuddyer could have been used on Mauer's extension or getting a productive 2B or pitcher.

The Twins are now in discussions with Joe Mauer over a possible extension. Mauer's contract will be up in 2010, leaving him wide-open to the gold mines of the east, New York and Boston, to sign. What will it take to negotiate a contract with Mauer?

In my opinion, I think Mauer would like a 5 year deal worth $95-100 million dollars. This contract would allow the Twins some breathing room to go out and sign a veteran pitcher to a contract for the next year or two. One consideration with Mauer is that Mauer would like to win, he wants the team to improve. Will Mauer take a cut in salary in order that the Twins might obtain the pieces of the puzzle that will almost ensure a trip to the World Series? I believe he will. Mauer wants to win more than anything else, but he also wants to stay in Minnesota. However, he will not if the Twins just continue to use players such as Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto for 2B and 3B. I am sure that Mauer would be willing to take a cut in salary, as long as the Twins vow to improve their team by signing some quality players.

What are the Twins needs as of this point?

* I believe 2B to be top priority. The Reds are supposedly willing to deal Brandon Phillips in order to cut some salary. If this is true, the Twins should trade for Phillips. Phillips would provide the Twins with great defense up the middle (complementing Hardy nicely) and would provide a power bat for the middle of their order. What would the Reds be looking for in return? Well, certainly, if the Reds want to cut Phillips 6.75 Million dollar contract this year, they will be look for a return of players with sub 6 million dollar contracts. What do I believe will get the Twins Phillips? The Reds want promising players in return with some decent potential. Perkins/Liriano, Delaney, and Casilla could be traded to Cincinnati for Phillips. Perkins/Liriano both have potential, though both have dealt with injury problems in the past. However, a change of scenery and a change to the NL might just improve these players (i.e. Kyle Loshe). Casilla still has tons of potential, although it may be hard for Twins fans to realize this. However, a change to the NL might just help Perkins/Liriano and Casilla improve and reach their potential.

* Obtaining a Starting Pitcher should be the next priority. Harden and Bedard will probably demand some egregious contracts despite their injury history. Does this mean that the Twins should not look at obtaining them? Absolutely not, however I would be very cautious based upon their injury history. That said, I believe the Twins should offer a contract to Ben Sheets, who has seen his share of arm troubles in the past. If the Twins could offer a contract similar to Crede's, I would be overjoyed! Twins should offer Sheets $3 million guaranteed with incentives of $500,000 for every 100, 150, 175, and 200 innings pitched with a $5 million option for 2011. This could potentially mean that the Twins offer Sheets $10 million over two years - a risk well worth the potential reward.

* Finally, I think that the Twins final priority should be 3B. With Valencia in AAA, the Twins shouldn't go out and sign a big name (i.e. Beltre) to a three year contract. Valencia is the Twins 3B of the future. I believe the Twins should offer a similar contract once again to Crede. In the days when Crede cannot play, Punto could play at 3B. In order to provide more relief to Crede's back, the Twins could play Punto everyday from the 8th inning on. This would give playing time to Punto, which is something Gardy wishes to do, yet at the same time, providing a great defensive 3B for the first 7 innings, 3 days a week. If Crede ever goes down with an injury, Valencia is ready to step in. I believe Valencia should be given a shot by August (at the latest). If indeed Valencia is our 3B of the future, the Twins should get him as much playing time in the majors as possible.

Phillips - 2B (6.75 Million contract for 2010)
Sheets - SP (3 Million guaranteed)
Crede - 3B (1 Million guaranteed)

This make a potential 10 Million dollars wrapped up for 2010 in the areas the Twins must address most. Phillips is a proven 2B, Sheets is a low risk - high reward pitcher, and Crede is a premier defender. 10 Million dollars does not seem too much to spend on fixes to the Twins roster. With Morneau, Phillips, Hardy, and Crede, the Twins would have one of the best infields, both offensively and defensively, in the entire league with a rotation that featured a strong ace (Sheets) with 4 young and proven pitchers.

Twins lineup (with Punto):

Span - CF
Punto - 3B
Mauer - C
Morneau - 1B
Cuddyer - RF
Kubel - DH
Phillips - 2B
Hardy - SS
Young - LF

Twins lineup (without Punto):

Span - CF
Hardy - SS
Mauer - C
Morneau - 1B
Cuddyer - RF
Kubel - DH
Phillips - 2B
Crede - 3B
Young - LF

Rotation:

Sheets
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Duensing/Swarzak

Poll

If you are Bill Smith, what do you do?

JT20 Dynasty League

2009-11-11T21:48:16Z

I have started started a free fun dynasty league in which each person takes control of a MLB roster & minor league system, drafts, signing free agents....

If this sounds interesting to you, go check out the league message board & league rules and sign up. There is no prize for the winner for each season, it is all just for fun, so join!

http://jt20.proboards.com/

Need a GM for the Twins!!!!!!!!

thought people here would be interested sign up soon!

baseball-reference sim scores updated for 2009

2009-11-10T05:31:37Z

Baseball-reference.com did their postseason update today.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3276

The most entertaining part of the update is the sim scores and age-based sim scores are now updated through the end of 2009. Most are familiar with Sim Scores. They are a Bill James invention but they were purposely designed to mimic HOF induction behavior circa 1990 or so. Because of that, they don't include park/era effect and tend to rely mainly on the more traditional counting stats. His thinking at the time was that the BBWAA/VC didn't incorporate those things. So, sometimes you get some quirky comps, but even the quirky comps can be fun and even a bit telling (e.g. Jason Tyner's comps are predominantly dead-ball era players).

Caveats aside, here are the latest comps for our Twins:

Joe Mauer (26) -> Robinson Cano
Justin Morneau (28) -> Paul Konerko
Nick Punto (31) -> Frank O'Rourke
Orlando Carbrera (34) -> Julio Franco
Joe Crede (31) -> Kelly Gruber
Delmon Young (23) -> Carlos May
Carlos Gomez (23) -> Curt Welch
Michael Cuddyer (30) -> Milton Bradley
Jason Kubel (27) -> Jason Giambi
Denard Span (25) -> Homer Summa
Brendan Harris (28) -> Sandy Alomar, Jr.
JJ Hardy (26) -> Miguel Tejada

Nick Blackburn (27) -> Rheal Cormier
Scott Baker (27) -> Scott Bankhead
Francisco Liriano (25) -> Odalis Perez
Glen Perkins (26) -> Joe Saunders
Kevin Slowey (25) -> Edinson Volquez
Carl Pavano (33) -> Ramon Ortiz
Joe Nathan (34) -> Jeff Montgomery

Alberto Callaspo

2009-11-09T16:02:10Z

Kansas City has Alberto Callaspo on the trading block. He's a pretty solid bat as a second baseman and he seemed to have a some pop everytime I've had a chance to see him. I don't know exactyl what the Royals may be demanding in return, but they did mention they might be looking for help behind the plate. Maybe the the Twins should make a run at him. A combination of Hardy and Callaspo in the middle of the infield sounds nice to me.

Implications of Picking up Cuddyers Option and Trading for Hardy

2009-11-07T20:17:07Z

I like the Twins move to resign Cuddyer and the trade for Hardy but unless the Twins really open up the pocketbooks this restricts them for any long term signing this off season. The combined 2011 salaries of Nathan (12.5), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (10.5), Kubel (5.25), Mauer (20, likely), Baker (5), Hardy (7?) is a big load to bear (74.25 million). This and the fact that Slowey, Blackburn, Span, Neshek, Bonser, Young, Harris, Casilla, Tolbert and Liriano will all be in their 1st or 2nd years of arbitration at that point means the Twins have a lot of money already committed for 2011. I realize that some of those arbitration eligible players will likely be gone either through being non-tendered or traded but even if you lose half of those the rest could be set for big paydays (Slowey, Span, and Blackburn especially).

It's really going to be tough for the Twins to make any big commitments to other players if they hope to keep their own key players. I can really only see the Twins going after a one year type player this year(Beltre or Crede) to fill one of the holes at either 3B or 2B. One option would be to structure Mauer's contract in a way that 2011 is a cheaper year and make up for it over the rest of the contract. This makes sense because the Twins will likely be done with Cuddyer, Kubel, and possibly even Nathan saving them roughly 25 million in 2012. They will have to be the expendable players and likely someone out of the group of Tosoni, Benson, Revere, Hicks, or Morales will have to be ready to replace Kubel and Cuddyer at this point. Backloading Mauers contract might allow the Twins to go after a guy like Felipe Lopez and pay him 5-6 million over the course of a 3-4 year contract or Pavano to a 2-3 year deal.

Another option to consider would be packaging one of our top young prospects with pitching to get a 2B who might be blocked in another system. I'm not familiar enough with other teams farm systems to suggest any names but this is an idea that I hope the Twins are looking into. It lets the Twins keep payroll down thus being able to resign Mauer without back loading his deal causing problems in the future or giving them a shot at maybe picking up a veteran pitcher this year and/or next.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting the Twins to sign Mauer to a big extension and then the rest of the off season to be pretty quiet. Hopefully I'm wrong and they make a move to pick up a good OBP guy to hit between Span and Mauer but I just don't see it happening. Maybe someone like Polanco would sign for a 1 year deal, heck if Hudson and O-Cab did last year I guess it could happen this year too. The Twins will likely depend on Punto to cover 2B and Tolbert/Harris to hold down 3B until Valencia is deemed ready to take over. This isn't an awful scenario but it does leave the Twins lineup looking pretty bad should any of their big hitters go down for any amount of time.

Organization Review (Center fielders)

2009-11-07T20:01:22Z

Although the top prospect in the organization probably is a catcher and the best power prospect a first baseman/corner outfielder, center field is clearly the top position in the organization. Not only are the following Top Ten the strongest group of any position, the organization has two very good players capable of playing center field who were included with the corner outfielders...Joe Benson and Rene Tosoni.

The tenth ranked center fielder is a young man taken on the thirty-third round of this year's draft, Nick Freitas. Freitas is a college selection who began his career with the GCL Twins where he hit a respectable .246/.336/.347 in 118 at bats. Freitas, who stole 6 bases in 6 attempts, is my 70th ranked player.

Ranked ninth is Herbert Lara. Lara moved up 15 spots in this year's ranking to 57th following a season at Elizabethton where he hit .218/.288/.240 in 147 at bats following his rookie season in 2008 with the GCL Twins where he hit .281/.329/.349 in 146 at bats.

The eighth ranked center fielder is a young man who shared playing time with Lara, Jonathan Goncalves. Goncalves also moved up from the GCL Twins where he hit .261/.385/.330 in 88 at bats to rank #68 in 2008. This season, Goncalves hit .256/.303/.366 in 172 at bats to move up 12 spots to #56.

The seventh ranked center fielder was this year's DSL Twins lone position player who was an all-star. Romy Trinidad would have been my 52nd ranked player had I included DSL players in the ranking. Trinidad hit .312/.443/.363 in 157 at bats with 1 home run and 15 stolen bases in 20 attempts. Trinidad, who turned 18 shortly before the DSL season began, should move up to the GCL next spring.

The top hitter early this season for the GCL Twins was Wang-Wei Lin who was hitting .364/.432/.545 in 33 at bats when he went down with a season ending injury. After getting only 10 at bats in 2008, Lin's work to improve appeared to have paid dividends when his season came to a sudden end. Lin had 3 doubles and a home run amongst his 12 hits with 2 stolen bases. Lin was my sixth ranked centerfielder and ranked 32nd overall based on only 33 at bats.

The fifth ranked center fielder is a young player many consider to have the highest ceiling of any player in the organization. Aaron Hicks, who was the Twins first round pick in 2008, went on to to hit .318/.409/.491 in 173 GCL at bats. Hicks had 10 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 14 attempts to rank as my 25th best player with Baseball America ranking him as the Top Prospect in the GCL. Baseball America again ranked him as the Top Prospect in the MidWest League this year following a season that began in EST before hitting .251/.353/.382 in 251 at bats at Beloit. Hicks, who is a disciplined hitter with 40 walks and 55 strikeouts, had 15 doubles, 3 triples, 4 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 18 attempts for the Snappers. A 5-tool player most believe can become a superstar, Hicks moved up one spot in my ranking to #24.

Fourth ranked is a player the Twins received from Cincinnati in a trade a few years ago for Juan Castro. Brandon Roberts hit .316/.370/.396 with 27 steals (stole 50 bases for the entire season) in 71 games following his 2006 all-star break trade. The following year he moved up to AA where he hit .293/.355/.374 in 389 at bats with only 14 steals in 21 attempts. In 2008 Roberts returned to New Britain where he was my 50th ranked player mostly because he missed much of the season with an injury which limited him to only 95 at bats, hitting .200/.269/.253. Roberts was healthy for most of 2009 and responded by hitting .287/.352/.365 in 397 at bats with 21 steals in 28 attempts to be ranked as my 22nd best player. If he is with the Twins next year, Roberts should move up to Rochester where he will be one plane ride away from making his major league debut.

Third ranked is a center fielder some believe has a higher ceiling than Hicks, Angel Morales. Although Morales was drafted in the third round a year earlier out of Puerto Rico, he is about two months younger than Hicks and won't turn 20 until later this month. Morales opened eyes with his phenominal season at Elizabethton in 2008 where he hit .301/.413/.623 in 183 at bats with 12 doubles, 1 triple, a league high 15 home runs and 28 RBI. Morales also stole 7 bases in 9 attempts to rank as my 19th best player. This season began very slowly for Morales at Beloit, yet he made the necessary adjustments and played like the star many believe he will become during the second half. Morales, who played through an injury during much of June, finished his first full-season hitting .266/.329/.455 in 376 at bats with 22 doubles, 5 triples, a team high 13 home runs and 62 RBI with 19 stolen bases in 25 attempts. The only knock against Morales are his struggles to hit some breaking balls and that he strikes out to often. He did make progress this season, however, with 104 strikeouts (27.7%) against better pitching versus a 39.3% strike out rate last year in the Appy League. People who have seen him play comment that the ball explodes off his bat and that Morales could become a superstar at the major league level. Morales was my 20th ranked player this season, however, played as well as anyone in the organization post all-star break. I look for him to blossom as a star next year in the FSL by reducing his strikeout rate to around 20%, hit 20 home runs with an average approaching .300. He should move up to AA as a 21 year old the following year and don't be surprised if you see him called up in September, 2011.

The second ranked center fielder and my 18th ranked player this year is Jason Pridie. Pridie, who was part of the Bartlett/Garza/Young trade, has been up with the Twins several times and certainly is in the mix to battle for the fifth outfield spot on the roster next spring. Pridie was my 15th ranked player in 2008 when he hit .270/.305/.435 in 559 at bats at Rochester with 21 doubles, a league best 16 triples, 13 home runs and 61 RBI. Pridie also stole 25 bases in 34 attempts and was named the International League's best defensive outfielder. Like the entire Red Wing team, Pridie's production dropped off this year. In 513 at bats he hit .265/.295/.382 with 23 doubles, 5 triples, 9 home runs, 53 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 32 attempts. After making his first appearance with the Twins in 2008, Pridie didn't appear in any games for the Twins during this season and wasn't a September callup. Whether or not that is an indication of what Twins plans are for him in 2010 isn't known, however, he appears to be a candidate to claim that last roster spot.

The top ranked center fielder and my #1 ranked player this year has taken almost as much criticism since being drafted as the Twins current center fielder. A common reaction to his selection in the first round was that many believed he should have been a second or third round pick and the Twins were being cheap when they drafted Ben Revere. He doesn't play good defense and doesn't hit for power are other common criticisms. Even though Revere hit .325/.388/.481 in 191 at bats in his rookie season with the GCL Twins the criticism continued. Last year Revere remained in EST to work on his defense before moving up to Beloit. And if he hadn't been injured in late July, wouldn't it have been fun for Beloit fans to watch him try to become the first minor league player in a long time to flirt with a .400 Average? Unfortunately, his leg injury limited his play until the Twins eventually shut him down with minor knee surgery. He didn't have enough at bats to qualify for the league batting championship which he would have easily won at .379/.433/.497 in 340 at bats with 17 doubles, 10 triples, 51 runs scored and 44 stolen bases in 57 attempts to rank #12 in my post season ranking.

Some still weren't believers. What would it take for Revere to earn their respect in the pitcher friendly FSL? After missing the FSL batting championship by two points.....Revere has impressed me and should have quieted many of his critics. Reports that I have read indicate that Revere has made progress in his defensive game. At the plate, he hit .311/.372/.369 in 466 at bats with the league's most hits (145), third most runs scored (75), third most steals (45 in 62 attempts) and fourth best OBP (.372). Revere, who took more walks (40) than strikeouts (34), still has some aspects of his game that needs work, however, I believe my top ranked player in 2009 is a special player who will be an exciting addition to the Twins beginning sometime in 2011.

Ben Revere, Angel Morales, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson and Rene Tosoni are all solid or better center fielders. Perhaps the biggest problem the Twins will have in a couple years is deciding which has the highest upside as they certainly won't be able to keep all five in the organization.....or can they?

Minor League Report...November 7, 2009

2009-11-07T14:22:03Z

A couple items of note this week include the Twins outrighting Brian Buscher to Rochester. This cleared a 40-man roster spot before the five free agents are removed in the next week. Why this was done at this time remains a mystery? My best guess is that the Twins were in discussion on some deal from which they may have needed an open spot on their roster. It turned out to not be the case with the J.J. Hardy deal. Maybe during the Hardy discussions there were other players under consideration or there could have been another deal (perhaps Tampa) being discussed that would have required an extra roster spot.

On a more serious note, Seth Stohs reported yesterday that Wilson Ramos injured his knee in Thursday's game in Venezuela. I had noted when reviewing the boxscore that he was removed from the game in the bottom of the fourth inning after drawing a walk. He finished the game with a 1-1 night, a walk, double and 2 runs scored. So whatever the injury was either happened on a play at the plate or he ran the bases, scored and then was removed. I believe that Ramos is a Top 10 prospect and I don't mean in the Twins organization, rather, in all of baseball. He was hitting better than anyone in the VWL (.403/.460/.766 with a league high 6 home runs and 23 RBI in 77 at bats) and getting him healthy for spring training is the most important concern the Twins have this winter....well, maybe second most important behind signing another catcher to a contract extension!

They say when you go to an Arizona Fall League game it is like going to a minor league all-star game. That makes today's AFL Rising Stars Showcase a special day for prospect junkies and scouts. This year's Number 1 overall pick, Stephen Strasburg, has been scratched from appearing in this game because of a strained arm. Strasburg has a 3-1 record in four starts with a 5.28ERA, 15.1 innings and 17K/5BB. The lone Twins representative in this game will be outfielder Rene Tosoni.

Mesa was 4-2 this week to improve their record to 9-12 and move into a tie for second place, 3.5 games out of first in their three team division. Rene Tosoni was 4-18 and is now hitting .254/.338/.390 in 59 at bats. Chris Parmalee was 2-12 this week, yet continues to lead the Solar Sox with 3 home runs and 16 RBI in 53 at bats. Steve Singleton was 4-11 and is hitting .300/.302/.440 in 50 at bats. Steve Hirschfield had his best outing of the fall in last night's 11-1 win, allowing 1 hit in 3.0 shutout innings with 2K/0BB. Hirschfield lowered his ERA to 11.17 with 11K/3BB. It will take all fall to get his ERA down to a good number after giving up 6 earned runs in 0.1 inning on October 20th. Spencer Steedley pitched 2 shutout innings to lower his ERA to 5.00 in 8 games, 9.0 innings with 6K/12BB. Alex Burnett has appeared in 7 games with 6.2 innings, 6K/7BB and 4.05ERA. Michael McCardell has pitched 8.2 innings with a 7.27ERA and 11K/5BB.

Armando Gabino made his first appearance this week for Aguilas in the DWL, pitching 0.2 inning with 1 strikeout. Estarlin De Los Santos didn't play a lot last year for Gigante and didn't get a lot of hits when he did. This is not unusual for a young player in a veteran winter league like the DWL. Although most of the major league players haven't arrived De Los Santos is playing regularly early this year, hitting .277/.320/.319 with a 2-7 week in 2 games this week.

Juan Morillo did not appear in any of Toros games this week, however, Jose Lugo appeared in two. Lugo has been one of his teams better relievers having appeared in 8 games, 8.0 innings with a 2-1 record, 3.38ERA and 7K/3BB. Over in Venezuela, Winston Marquez did not make any appearances this week.

Aragua improved their record to 9-14, moving into a fifth place tie 8.5 games out of first. Frank Mata has been one of their better relievers with a 2-1 record in 10 games, 16.1 innings with 10K/5BB. Mata's 3.31ERA is the best on the staff of any pitchers with over 4 innings of work. Justin Huber hit his second and third home runs with 5 RBI last night in the Tigres 9-6 win. Hopefully Huber, who is hitting .300/.400/.517 in 60 at bats with 14 RBI, will be back with the Twins next season.

With Carlos Gomez gone it will be interesting to see who will be the Twins extra outfielder next spring. Many assume it will be Jason Pridie but Dustin Martin may have something to say about that. After an excellent spring training last year Martin had what must be considered a disappointing season at Rochester. Any chance he has to earn that spot next spring begins with his performance this winter in Venezuela. After a slow first week or so, Martin has raised his average to .293/.400/.467 with 3 home runs and 16 RBI in 75 at bats. With all the top center fielders in the organization at least a couple years from being ready to help the Twins, Martin may be an option to fill a reserve spot next spring.