Top 12:  Twins 5, Tigers 5

Does Bobby Keppel still pitch?  Let's find out!

(NOTE: Sunday, I appeared on the Twins postgame show yet again, doing the quick one-minute "GameDay Chatter" segment.  Below, the text of my appearance.)

It has been a loud few weeks for the Twins, thanks to the pitching staff's implosion and the team's subsequent scramble to plug those holes. We fans have fretted and agonized over the team's August swoon, then looked on happily as a small winning streak has landed the team back, improbably, in contention.

While all of this was happening, though, it was too easy to forget a rather nice moment from last month.

In late July, Mark Buehrle of Chicago threw a perfect game against Tampa Bay. Nobody’s ever done that two games in a row, but in his next start, for more than five innings he held Twins batters spellbound. Finally, with two out in the sixth inning, Alexi Casilla drew a walk and Denard Span got a hit, breaking up a league-record string of batters retired. This was the hated White Sox, who were beating the home team at the time, but even so, the Twins crowd stood to applaud. They did again when it was announced that Buehrle had broken the baseball record for consecutive hitters retired, then again when the Sox lefty – by this time trailing – left the game. I admit, I never thought I’d see a Chicago pitcher tipping his cap to a Minnesota crowd in acknowledgement of an ovation.

It was a small moment, but I’d like to think one that will be remembered by the pitcher and by the fans. For just a short time, all partisan rancor was set aside, as the Twins crowd roared in appreciation of the White Sox hurler, who’d come closer than anyone to doing something nobody’s ever seen before. We could all stop being Twins fans for a minute, and take a chance to just be baseball fans, to sit and watch the national pastime without thinking about pitching disasters or the games-back column in the standings.

I’d like to remember that moment. In this age of blanket media coverage and the presence of critical voices from all sides, those kinds of moments are all too rare.

On Sunday, I made another appearance on the afternoon Twins Extra Innings show, as part of the GameDay Chatter segment.  Here's my effort:

Twins fans who watched last Tuesday’s All-Star Game had to be a little bit frustrated.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Joe Nathan represented the Twins, but the usual passel of ex-Twins was also in attendance.  Johan Santana and Jason Bartlett were present and accounted for; Torii Hunter was selected, but couldn’t play because of injury. 

Hunter and Santana, of course, both left because the team felt that it couldn’t afford their salaries, and maybe that’s true: Santana is making between $20-25 million per year over the next five years, and Hunter will make nearly $18 million in each of the next four seasons.  That's a lot of money to spend on just one player.

That said, it should be clear: despite the long-anticipated bump in team revenues with the move to Target Field next season, the Twins have been doing things on the cheap.

Let’s do the math: team revenues have been north of $130 million in each the last two seasons. League-wide revenues are at an all-time high.  Attendance is up this year.  But despite the team’s continued claims of spending 50-52% of revenues on player salaries, their payrolls over the last two years have been right around the 40-45% range.

League-wide, too, baseball is doing things on the cheap (despite the Herculean efforts of Boston and the New York teams.)  Player salaries as a percentage of league revenues have dropped down to around 50% - surprising, considering the other three pro sports in this country give away nearly 60% to players as terms of their union contracts.

The Twins have been pocketing the savings over the past few years, and team revenues are set for a dramatic upswing.  Don’t let them get away with letting another All-Star go because of claimed financial considerations.

Sunday, I once again was the voice of the GameDay Chatter segment on AM1500's postgame show.  Here's the text of my latest appearance:

I've got three letters for you: D-F-A. They're the saddest three letters in baseball.

Those three letters are the abbreviation for "designated for assignment," which is baseball's version of the pink slip.  In technical terms, it means that the major league club has ten days to trade or waive the player so designated, and in th meantime, they can fill his spot on the roster with somebody else.

In real terms, though, DFA is the short way of telling a player, "We want you off our team immediately, and it's so important to get you out of here as soon as possible, we don't even care if we lose you for nothing.  We don't even get to stop paying you.  That's how bad you are; we would gladly pay you to sit at home, so long as you're anywhere but here."

Luis Ayala was the latest Twin to get the treatment; the Twins DFA'ed him last Monday, making room for Bobby Keppel, the team's latest attempt to stop the bleeding in the bullpen.  Astonishingly, this means that only two relief pitchers are left from the team's Opening Day roster.  Of those seven relievers, the Twins sent two down to the minors, and DFA'ed or released three others, one of whom ended up back in the team's minor-league system.  Only Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier survive - along with R.A. Dickey, who was in the starting rotation on Opening Day.

Twins fans have been frustrated with the team's inability to get much past the .500 mark this year.  But with a bullpen that's been as DFA-worthy as this one - Ayala included - I'd say it's just a wonder that they're anywhere above Royals Territory in the standings.

If you tuned into Sunday's post-game show and heard the GameDay Chatter segment - otherwise known as "the part of the show where a blogger rails against the establishment" - you heard my dulcet tones ringing across the airwaves.  Here's what I said, after noticing that two other teams in town moved towards much more independence in their front offices:

Last week, both the Wild and the Timberwolves hired new general managers, and one thing that both men had in common is that neither was a former player. Both Wild GM Chuck Fletcher, and Timberwolves GM David Kahn, have made their careers entirely in management.

Both men were hired, in part, to help distance front-office decisions from the day-to-day happenings on the court or on the ice. Both Doug Risebrough and Kevin McHale, their predecessors, worked closely with their respective coaching staffs to build teams - but neither one could put together a team that could QUITE make it over the top.

This makes me wonder: maybe it’s time for the Twins front office to spend a little less time listening to the views of the on-field staff.

After all, it was the manager who expressed continuous frustration with Matt Garza. It was the field staff who questioned the leadership of Jason Bartlett. Both were traded, in part, to satisfy the coaching staff - but now Garza is in the midst of a second successful season on the mound for Tampa Bay at the young age of 25, and Bartlett has been one of the most valuable position players in the league this year.

This isn't to say that the manager should have NO input into front-office decisions, but it might be better for the team - in the long run - if the front office was more independent, and if the general manager could focus on the long-term success of the team, rather than satisfying the field manager.

It took a wave of firings for the Wild and the Timberwolves to move in this direction - and, like those two teams, the Twins just can’t seem to quite get over the top. Let’s hope it won’t take another wave of firings for the Twins to try to get there.

If you tuned into Sunday's post-game show and heard the GameDay Chatter segment, also known as the blogger rant, then you were lucky enough to hear my velvet voice coming to you from across the ocean.  I wasn't able to hear it, but here's what I wrote...if you've read comment threads over the last week or so, you may find this somewhat familiar:

The following appears in the Dugout Splinters insert of this week's GameDay Magazine, for the series against the Kansas City Royals.  Thanks to Nick Nelson for the invite.

Precedent

Let’s not beat around the bush here, the last few couple of weeks in Twins Territory have left us with more questions about this team than questions about the acting skills of William Shatner.  And that’s a lot of questions.

Luckily enough, for all the losses that have been thrown up recently, entering play on Monday the Twins were still just 2.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for first place in the AL Central.  While with 19 games left to play that seems like a very manageable deficit, the Twins have managed to overcome larger holes after September 8^th just once before in their history, going on to win the division:  2006.  You remember that summer, right?  The one where Minnesota won the division AFTER their regular season ended?  Yes, THAT magical summer..  They trailed by four games after they won on September 8^th, but going all the way back to 1901 as the Washington Senators, this franchise only has ’06 to look to as a beacon of hope.

As a whole this is a club that has far exceeded expectations.  Water cooler experts and sports talk radio pundits across the baseball landscape had the Twins pegged as a .500 team at best, and I won’t lie, I had them in the same ballpark.  But for most of the summer the boys have played like contenders; until these last couple of weeks it certainly appeared like they were a team to be taken seriously.  Suddenly this is a team that can’t take care of its own business, and clubs that need to watch the scoreboard every night hoping for losses elsewhere don’t belong in October..

That’s the Spock in me.  The realist.

So here’s the optimist in me, the Captain Kirk:  it’s not over.  Baseball is a long season, full of ups and downs, where every game counts.  The biggest shot this team has left, their one chance at a saving grace, is the three-game series against the White Sox that kicks off in two weeks.  Before the Twins get there though, to make sure that series still matters, they need to find a way to pull themselves out of this skid.  The Enterprise was always a sitting duck without Warp power, but once she got it back things always got better.  So it is with the Twins—stringing together a few wins will do wonders for the team and, let’s be honest, for us as the fans as well.

Now we kick off a series against the Kansas City Royals.  Nothing like a bit of good timing to turn around the fortunes of a season, and this is a team that Minnesota could be running into at the best possible time.  The Twins still have time to start taking care of their own business, but it has to start with this series.

Whatever happens with this season, we’ll have our ultimate questions answered on this team in a few short weeks.  On the other hand, we’ll always have questions about the acting skills of Willam Shatner.  And that’s as it should be.

Because Just Once More This Year, I Have to Say Joe Mauer Is Awesome

Remember early in the year when Joe Mauer “wasn’t pulling his weight”?  You remember—April 14^th, Joe’d played in all of 12 games, and he was only hitting .238.  Since then he’s failed to reach base by hit or walk just eight times, has hit somewhere between .307 and .344 each month since (except in September when he’s hitting just .435…where’s the other .565 Joe?), and has posted monthly on-base percentages .412 or better.  Just like Ron Burgandy, Joe Mauer is the balls.

Two years ago, the Twins won the triple crown of the post-season individual awards.  Johan Santana won the Cy Young, Justin Morneau won the MVP, and Mauer became the first catcher in the history of baseball to win a batting title.  This year there will be no Cy Young, but not only is Morneau (rightly or wrongly) being included in MVP discussions, but Mauer could win his second batting title in two years.  On the season he’s hitting .326, which puts him in a tight race with Dustin Pedroia (.330), Milton Bradley (.327), Magglio Ordonez (.319) and Ian Kinsler (.319).  At 25, Mauer is putting together a strong application to be included on the short list of Best Hitting Catchers of All Time.  But oddly enough, that’s not the best thing about him.

Entering play on Monday, Mauer is the American League leader in WPA for position players, at 3.93.  WPA (or win probability added) is the difference in win expectancy between the start and end of a play, and is the result of equations that are run based off of the history of the game.  It’s a number that goes up or down based on how a player does in a certain situation, and as Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times said back in December of ’04:  “[WPA] measures every baseball event within the context of the ultimate goal:  winning games.”  Or, as the chances of a team winning or losing a game change as each play runs its course, each involved player is credited/debited based on their role in that play.

As much as we talk about Joe’s ability to hit anything thrown his way, as much as we talk about how often he gets on base, as much as we talk about his arm or his ability to call a game, the bottom line is this:  Joe helps the Twins win more games.  And when you cut everything else out of the analysis, that’s all that really matters.

ON THE HILL  

Tuesday: Nick Blackburn (9-8, 3.71 ERA)

¨        2008:  169.2 IP, 192 H, 16 HR, 86 K, 30 BB

¨        2007:  11.2 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 2 BB

¨        Fastball, slider, curveball, changeup

¨        Has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once since June 27^th.

¨        Doesn’t miss high in the zone very often, but needs good horizontal movement to make the most of his “stuff”.

¨        Like most Twins pitchers will put the ball in play, so he needs a solid defense to help him out from time to time.

¨        Gets more ground balls (44%) than all other Twins starters, except Francisco Liriano (44.9%).

Wednesday: Kevin Slowey (11-9, 3.75 ERA)

¨        2008:  114.1 IP, 107 H, 15 HR, 79 K, 17 BB

¨        2007:  66.2 IP, 82 IP, 16 HR, 47 K, 11 BB

¨        Fastball, slider, curveball, changeup

¨        Allowed 10 hits over 5.2 innings his last time out, still allowing just three runs.

¨        Since July 28 (eight starts) he’s the proud owner of a 2.61 ERA.

¨        A fly-ball pitcher who’s usually responsible for one bomb per game, although when he’s on he’ll shut an offense down.

¨        11 of 23 appearances have been quality starts.

Thursday: Francisco Liriano (5-3, 3.33 ERA)

¨        2008:  29.0 IP, 26 H, 1 HR, 22 K, 20 BB

¨        2008 (AAA):  10-2, 3.28 ERA, 118.0 IP, 102 H, 8 HR, 113 K, 31 BB

¨        Fastball, slider, changeup

¨        Since his return to the Twins, strikeouts are up, walks and hits are down, and he’s 5-0 in seven starts.

¨        It’s a tale of two seasons for Liriano.  In April he posted an 11.32 ERA in 10.1 innings over three starts, striking out seven, walking 13 and giving up 15 hits.  In 43.2 innings since his recall it’s 38 strikeouts, 12 walks (two in last three games), 31 hits and a 1.44 ERA.

¨        Not many balls leave the park on his watch, just 6.3% of fly balls get over the fence.

The following appears in this week's Dugout Splinters insert, as part of GameDay Magazine.  Once again, please forgive the formatting.

May the Best Better Team Win

With the Twins and the White Sox locked in a see-saw battle for first place in the AL Central, the winner may be the team that’s able to disguise its weaknesses.  While Minnesota has been able to win by hitting well with runners in scoring position and by holding leads granted them by five young starting pitchers, the White Sox have been able to overcome their own deficiencies with power and some strong starting pitching of their own.  But that’s what’s great about baseball—there’s no such thing as the “perfect team”.  There are always strengths and weaknesses, and some teams are always better than others, but even for teams like the Yankees who routinely out-spend the Twins by more than 2:1 there isn’t such a thing as perfection.

In this year’s AL Central race, the team that gets to 90 wins is likely to be the team that wins the division.  It won’t be enough to win the Wild Card, which means that in 2008 there will be no consolation prize for second place.  No doubt a little luck is always involved, but the Twins need to take care of their own business before hoping a bounce or two will go their way.

1.  Stay Healthy.  Nothing could damage the Twins’ play-off hopes more than having to absorb another major injury to a key player.  Alexi Casilla will be back by month’s end, but Michael Cuddyer’s return is questionable and Pat Neshek’s return is doubtful if you’re optimistic.

2.  Maintain Some Level of Unexpected Production.  On paper the Twins aren’t one of baseball’s best teams…yet, somehow, their win-loss record insists otherwise.  Again, there’s some luck involved (like having baseball’s best line with runners in scoring position:  .316/.389/.465), but the Twins have earned their record in no small part to unexpected contributions of guys like Denard Span, Brian Buscher, Casilla and pretty much the entire starting rotation.  It’s a long season, but teams who make it to October need those dark horses to keep producing like they have all year long.

3.  Take Advantage of the Weak Schedule.  Starting with this home series against Oakland, the Twins’ opponents have a combined record of 724-743 (.494), with just three series against playoff contenders (Angels, Rays, White Sox).  Chicago’s opponents are 748-720 (.510), and they’ll be taking on five contenders (Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, Twins).  Certainly the Twins have struggled on the road this season, but they’ll have chances to turn that around thanks to stops in Seattle, Oakland, and Cleveland.  Against a weaker schedule, Minnesota needs to push their advantage.

And of course, then there’s that bullpen…

Bullpen, You Say?

The organization has been searching high and low for a live arm to shove into the bullpen, and after passing on Chad Bradford last week and having Alan Embree pulled away from them, seeing Sunday afternoon’s relief performance has done nothing to quell anyone’s worries.  If the team can’t find an option on waivers, they’ll turn to Rochester.  Here’s a primer for you, so you know who these guys are.  Feel free to impress your friends by knowing all about the youngsters when they arrive (and they will)!

Bobby Korecky, 28, RHP:  Korecky’s the most likely to see a cup of coffee next month, successfully navigating 10.1 innings with the Twins earlier this year, with a 3.48 ERA.  This season he’s sporting a 2.99 ERA for the Red Wings, with 67 strikeouts and 61 hits in 69.1 innings.  He’s making a strong push with six scoreless appearances in a row, spanning eight innings (6 K, 0 BB, 4 H).  The big chink in his armor is a weakness against left-handed hitters (.278 opponent average).  He throws a fastball (89-92), slider and changeup.

Ricky Barrett, 27, LHP:  Barrett is the favorite among southpaw options and could be Craig Breslow’s replacement if the Twins decide to go in a different direction.  Ricky’s last couple outings have been rough but his season is still in good shape, and with all those strikeouts (76 in 63.2 innings) and a lack of hits allowed (just 52), are sure to make him an organization favorite.  Barrett hurls a fastball (90-92), slurve and a change.

Mariano Gomez, 25, LHP:  On Friday, Gomez was shelled for five runs in 1.2 innings, but in spite of that appearance he’s still the proud owner of a 2.97 ERA this season.  Gomez is a bit more stingy on the walks than Barrett, but he gets hit a bit harder (67 hits in 60.2 innings, .277 opponent average, 1.42 WHIP).  This is his first season of success above high-A ball however, and with another year of grooming may develop into a useful LOOGY (Lefty-One-Out-Guy/Dennys Reyes).  Gomez carries a fastball (88-91), curveball and a change.

Philip Humber, 25, RHP:  Humber’s back in Rochester’s rotation, and since his return is 4-0 in five starts and 31.1 innings with a 3.16 ERA, 36 strikeouts and eight walks.  But to get a fresh arm into the pen for use as a long reliever, don’t be surprised if Humber gets a look.  He’s a fly-ball pitcher with a fastball (90-92), curve and changeup.

Kevin Mulvey, 23, RHP:  Mulvey’s a bit of a dark horse option, but he’s been one of Rochester’s most consistent starters this season.  He’s a little soft versus left-handed hitters, but has managed a 3.37 ERA this season.  Possibly just a year away, the Twins may see him as an option as a spot starter if they aren’t comfortable with Humber.  Kevin throws a fastball (90-93), slider, curve and changeup.

ON THE HILL  

Monday: Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.73 ERA)

¨        2008:  144.2 IP, 164 H, 14 HR, 76 K, 24 BB

¨        2007:  11.2 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 2 BB

¨        It’s been hill or valley for Blackburn over his last few starts.  Aggressive teams can keep him from settling into his game plan, so over the next couple weeks we’ll see if Blackburn can learn how to adapt.  Luckily, Oakland isn’t known as an aggressive team.

¨        He makes the opposition beat him.  He doesn’t walk anyone, and while he doesn’t strike anyone out, putting the ball in play is exactly what he needs to do.

¨          Usually he’s very adept at keeping the ball in the park.

Tuesday: Kevin Slowey (9-8, 3.94 ERA)

¨        2008:  114.1 IP, 107 H, 15 HR, 79 K, 17 BB

¨        2007:  66.2 IP, 82 IP, 16 HR, 47 K, 11 BB

¨        After a series of rough appearances, Slowey’s been solid or better three of his last four starts.

¨        When he doesn’t allow a home run, he’s all but unbeatable.  Knowing his troubles with the long ball in the past, and knowing that he’s a fly-ball pitcher, make this an important note.

¨          There’s a difference between “control” and “not walking batters”.  Slowey is all control, and when he’s on his game it’s a beautiful thing.

Wednesday: Francisco Liriano (3-3, 4.97 ERA)

¨        2008:  29.0 IP, 26 H, 1 HR, 22 K, 20 BB

¨        2008 (AAA):  10-2, 3.28 ERA, 118.0 IP, 102 H, 8 HR, 113 K, 31 BB

¨        Since his return, Franchise is 3-0 in three starts, with 18.2 IP, 15 strikeouts and 11 hits.  He’s a different pitcher, but he’s been effective.

¨        If he doesn’t start getting ahead of hitters, they’ll stop giving him the benefit of a doubt and just stop swinging.  He needs to get ahead of hitters to keep them honest, and keep them swinging, because his stuff isn’t as explosive as it used to be.

¨        The New Liriano throws a good changeup, and throws it more than the slider.  He’ll throw any of his pitches in almost any count.