We've now reached the point where we've hung our new calendars (Jesse: the Gallagher Brothers Looking Surly Page-a-Day; Jon: The Ladies of Niche Sports; Me: iCarly; Rest of the Staff: the FanGraphs 2012 Best of Calculators and Spreadsheets), which means pitchers and catchers aren't that far away, but there's still ABSOLUTELY NOTHING GOING ON. Which is why we're arguing about the Twins payroll again, because awesome!

Phil Mackey wrote a convincing defense of the club's decision to reduce the payroll from it's 2011 high of $113 million back to around $100 million, with the reasoning that if Morneau and Mauer aren't healthy, that extra $13-$15 million isn't going to bring in enough talent to make much of a difference. He also compared the Twins relatively paltry TV income to that of the Los Angeles Angels of San Berdoo or Inland Empire or Wherever as a reason they simply aren't going to be competing for Albert Pujols or C.J. Wilson (or Prince Fielder).

The thing is...the income isn't that paltry. The team's new deal with FSN will bring in $29 million annually. Compared to the $150 million pile of lucre that the LAAoSBoIEoW will rake in, it's not a lot, but as noted by pot roast enthusiast Ben Collin, this is $27.5 million MORE per year than they were getting under their previous deal.

The angel on my shoulder tells me that they're just making sure the two MVPs are healthy, and if the team is competitive through June, they will take the money they've banked and use it to improve the team for a pennant run in August and September. The devil on my shoulder, which looks suspiciously like John Bonnes' Twitter account, asks how likely it is that this team will actually do that, and if the team is unwilling to invest money in the team, what message is that sending to the fans?

And then I just get depressed and think I should have just written something funny about Kevin Slowey abandoning R.A. Dickey on Mount Kilimanjaro because Jeff Mangum was doing a solo tour.

As always, your thoughts are welcome in the comments.

A nearly 11-year relationship was ended yesterday morning when the Diamondbacks agreed to sign Jason Kubel to a two-year deal that will pay the former Twins 12th round selection $15M to be their left fielder. The man I've given countless nicknames to over the past few years, highlighted by my personal favorite, Kub-El-Nino, will be leaving the Midwest for the Southwest and the hitter friendly confines of Chase Field.

The Twins will collect a supplemental round draft pick for their loss, and fans will be left with the memories of Kubel's flair for the dramatic. The echoes of "Kuuuuuuuuuuuuubes" that resonated through the Metrodome and Target Field will be no more, but I for one will look back at Kubel's time in Minnesota with fondness. Parting is sweet sorrow, and Kubel has long been a personal favorite of mine, so here's my five fondest memories of #16 and his time with the Twinks.

Continue reading this post »

It seems as though the Twins might be finally starting to move forward with their off-season plans. For the last couple of weeks we've known that much of their larger plans depended on what happened with Michael Cuddyer; the Twins are working with a limited budget and have many holes to fill, meaning if they make one significant move (and signing Cuddyer would be significant) then it would have repurcussions for the rest of their winter.

Earlier today, Nick Camino of WTAM 1100 in Cleveland stated that Josh Willingham's landing spots were down to Minnesota and Cleveland. Naturally this has been somewhat disputed, as over the last couple of days the Mariners have been finalists and then totally out of the running for Willingham's services, and the Rockies continue to be involved where the market for Cuddyer is concerned. Indeed, that seems to be the common theme. It's not just the Twins that are waiting on Cuddyer, but it's also Colorado and, indirectly, the Indians.

With Minnesota being as patient as they can be for Cuddyer, the Rockies seem to be of the same mindset. The Indians, meanwhile, haven't been connected to the longtime Twin but may end up being in direct competition with whichever team(s) don't land him in order to bring in Willingham. If the Indians can find the money.

At some point, whether the Twins get a definitive answer from Cuddyer or not, they'll need to move on. The longer they wait to begin their off-season rebuild, the more other teams will begin to solidify their own plans for 2012, the fewer options the Twins will have to get better. Because the truth is that even if the Twins land one of those two right-handed bats, it only makes them a .500 team. There are a great many things this team needs to do before Opening Day if they plan on putting a winning product on the field.

Considering the similar market for these two players, I have to believe that if Willingham's asking price was an order of magnitude less than Cuddyer's then he'd already have signed with one of these teams. Keeping that in mind, if the Twins are paying millions for this player profile then it's an added bonus that they can help bolster their future at the same time. If Cuddyer wants to hold out for four years or three years and extra money, let him. He's a good player and somebody will sign him.

Because if I'm Minnesota, I'm done waiting. I have a lot of work to get done, I can sign another player for similar money who can hit right-handed pitching, and I can pick up a couple of draft picks in the process. And it all means I can get back to work tomorrow in terms of putting my team together.

It's never easy to say goodbye. If that's what happens between the Twins and Cuddyer, part of me will be sad. But there's more at stake here than nostalgia and familiarity and continuity. We're talking about the success of the team in 2012 and beyond.

Extenuating circumstances or not the Twins are working on some kind of a deadline. If you're Minnesota, how long do you wait on Cuddyer?

First, a bit of an introduction before we get down to brass tacks. If you’re reading Twinkie Town, there’s a decent chance you’ve read me at any number of my other outlets. I’ve written pieces or excerpts that have appeared at Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Fangraphs, Twins MVB, and a handful of other places. I’ve done play-by-play and color commentary work for the Minnesota Sports Broadcast Network. I’ve also done a little television work for GameOn!, which is a show that is broadcast on Sunday mornings on a local Fox affiliate. In short -- or rather long -- I’m attempting to be a bit of a mover and a shaker in the sportswriting world. My goal is to do something media-related as a full-time job; it’s an ambitious goal, but I won’t let hard work get in the way of that.

Continue reading this post »

Judging from reaction to Monday's big news, it's clear the vast majority of Twins fans had lost faith in Bill Smith and seriously doubted his ability to return this team to its status as the class of the AL Central.

Fans had every reason to be frustrated with Smith's tenure as GM. Smith took over during a tumultuous time for the franchise, overseeing both the departure of long-time star Torii Hunter and trading away the team's best pitcher  for an underwhelming collection of prospects. He swapped Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young. He traded JJ Hardy to make room for Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He moved Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, and then brought back Capps just to watch his strikeout rate implode and ERA explode. The list goes on.

On the other hand, Smith made several smart, mid-level moves that did pay off: Pavano, Thome, Hudson, Rauch, Fuentes, and, of course, the acquisition of J.J. Hardy. But any goodwill Smith may have garnered from fans with those moves meant little when compared to the disappointment and anger he elicited from fans for the many moves he made that seemingly failed so spectacularly.

While I am entirely supportive of the decision to relieve Smith of his duties as GM, and couldn't be happier to see Terry Ryan take over the position, I do have to say I've spent the past day or so experiencing quite a bit of sympathy for Smith. I'm not talking about the public firing, which, while difficult, certainly comes with the territory. No, I'm talking about his track record as GM, which, however flawed, was certainly impacted by a string of bad luck and terrible timing that magnified every questionable move he made as GM

I'll dive into that after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

For the last few years, TwinsCentric has introduced their Offseason GM Handbook to the masses. This year the layout is more refined, the content more focused, but here's what matters: it's more than 130 pages of straight up baseball nerdery. And it's all concentrated on the Minnesota Twins.

There's a lot here that's familiar. This season's welcome is a quasi-crabby introduction from Patrick Reusse, which is great. Then there's payroll analysis for next season (What? There's money to spend?), analysis on the 40-man roster (which is always a favorite of mine over the winter), organizational depth charts. Player evaluations and grades, info on arbitration eligibles, free agent information and potential trade targets.

And of course everyone's favorite off-season activity: rosterbation. John, Nick, Parker and Seth each put forward their own blueprint for 2012. Oddly enough a couple of them don't look like teams that would be much better than the one we finished with. Parker's was my favorite, although I'm hoping there's a better decision to be made than Derrek Lee.

Towards the back of the handbook there's a section called Player Development. It's an interesting section, and it's the only one I can't decide whether I like it or not. Essentially it's an informal poll of players throughout the Twins organization, where Seth (I'm assuming it's Seth, but it may well have been one of the other guys) asked one question: What do you plan on working on this offseason?

I like this section because this is supposed to be a GM's Handbook to the Minnesota Twins' offseason, and so as the GM you would have some idea of what will be happening with your guys over the winter. But at the same time it feels like it was bolted onto the existing template that's become the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I can't quite put my finger on it, whether it's a design or feel or content issue, but it doesn't have the same finished product feel as the rest of the handbook.

In conclusion, TwinsCentric has once again put together a comprehensive, well-researched, good-looking handbook that will prepare even the most hardcore of Twins fanatics for the 2011-2012 offseason. It's approachable whether you're a "stat-head", more old school, or just a casual fan. Could you get a lot of this stuff around the rest of the blogosphere for free over the coming months? Definitely. You'll get it right here. But the appeal of the handbook is that it's all available right now. And it's produced by four quality Twins bloggers who, as a group, are prolific writers year around. The depth that they've gone into with this handbook, and the work that's clearly been put into it, stand out. It's great as a tool for your own study of the upcoming winter and the decisions and parameters facing the front office, but it's also a fantastic resource that you'll be able to reference all winter long.

Head on over to TwinsCentric to place your order for the eBook. For $9.99, you won't find a publication of higher quality to give you exactly what you crave for one of the most exciting times of the baseball year.

On Tuesday I broke out my second wish for the Twins off-season philosophy: finding quality right-handed bats. Today I wanted to build off of that by presenting ten realistic free agent targets, fitting that simple description, who would be good fits in Minnesota. Of course, you can't sign them all.

My list of ten, in alphabetical order, starts with...

The fact that Burrell is on my list was a bit of a surprise, even to me. He just turned 35, rates abysmally in the outfield, and this season he made signifantly less contact (72.3% contact rate, averaged nearly 80% from '04 to '10). His swinging strike percentage jumped into double digits for the first time since 2003. His power looked sapped this season (although his .175 ISO would have looked good for the Twins).

But one thing remains strong for Burrell: he takes walks. And I'm not trying to go all Moneyball here, partially because Moneyball was about so much more than walks, but the Twins will desperately need live bodies who can reach first base in 2012. Burrell, in his career, has walked in 14.3% of his plate appearances; that number was 15.1% in 2011. His wOBA was .338 which, while not fantastic, is fine for a non-middle-of-the-order hitter.

If the Twins find their solution in right field and need a designated hitter and backup first baseman, Burrell should be available on a one-year deal worth less than $2 million. To hit on that Moneyball theme, maybe Burrell could be to Smith what David Justice was to Billy Beane. Milk the last ounce of baseball out of that guy.

More after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Last Thursday we went over the rather obvious fact that in recent seasons, Minnesota Twins pitching hasn't been missing many bats. It should be understood that while you don't need a staff of strikeout pitchers and can be successful without them, a philosophy of filling out a staff with contact pitchers is a flawed one. Twins pitching has a fundamental lack of dynamics, but more importantly if you're not striking out many players then you're putting more pressure on the defense (and the pitchers themselves).

It's this simple: if you rely on the batter making contact to get an out, it's not always going to happen. It's playing with fire. When a player can't hit the ball, however, he can't do any damage.

Today's philosophy is also going to be another obvious one, but it's laying the foundation for what we'll be talking about in the coming weeks. After the jump, the last five World Series winners and their best hitters (by OPS+). Are these lineups balanced?

Continue reading this post »