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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

Series Previews

NLCS Preview: St. Louis Cardinals VS Milwaukee Brewers

I picked the Phillies in four over the Cardinals, and the Cards won it in five. With perhaps the best pitching rotation ever, Philadelphia was the easy favorite for the World Series if not the World Series title. You have to give crazy respect not just to the St. Louis pitchers for keeping them in that series, but to the team as a whole for scoring just enough to win.

Milwaukee I picked to win in four, but just like the Tigers I'm just glad I got the winning team right. The Brewers have a great offense and solid pitching, even if it's not as stellar as that Philly rotation. I'm picking the Brew Crew in six.

Ultimately I think the Cardinals will be able to go toe-to-toe with the Brewers in terms of pitching. The difference to me is simply the offensive powerhouse that Milwaukee brings to the table. The Cards have Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and the pleasant surprise of Jon Jay. But Milwaukee, up and down the lineup, is tough. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickey Weeks...and we all know that Nyjer Morgan is coming up big in the playoffs.

For St. Louis to win this series, they're going to need to find a hero or two from their secondary players. Whether that's a veteran like Rafael Furcal or Nick Punto, or if it's one of their younger complimentary pieces like David Freese or Allan Craig. Likewise, if the Brewers can get big games from Craig Counsell, Casey McGehee, Mark Kotsay, Yuniesky Betancourt or Carlos Gomez, they'll have the opportunity to really load up on run support for their pitching.

But hey...I've been wrong before.

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ALCS Preview: Detroit Tigers VS Texas Rangers

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander reacts to a question during a news conference on Friday, Oct. 7, 2011, in Arlington, Texas. The Tigers and Texas Rangers are scheduled play in Game 1 of the AL Championship series on Saturday. (AP Photo/Kim Johnson Flodin)

This is exactly the series I had hoped for. Nobody who respects themselves wanted the Yankees to advance, and while it wouldn't have really bothered me to see the Rays get in I can also safely say that Detroit versus Texas is my preferred matchup.

In the ALDS, I did pick the Rays to top the Rangers in five. We all know how that went. I also picked the Tigers to beat the Yankees in four, and hey...at least I got the winning team correct. For the Championship Series on the AL side I'm going to pick the Tigers again, in a full seven games. It's a hard call though, and ultimately I'm only picking the Tigers because if Justin Verlander goes just twice I have to believe those games go to Detroit.

Rotation

Tigers: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello
Rangers: C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison

Verlander and Wilson are both aces, although Verlander is without a doubt one of the best three pitchers in all of baseball. Fister has pitched like an ace down the stretch, and there's certainly nothing wrong with guys like Holland, Lewis and Scherzer. Once we get back to Porcello and Harrison the quality drops off a little bit, so if one of these teams is facing elimination in game four I have no doubt they'll put their ace back on the hill.

Bullepn

Tigers: Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Brad Penny, Ryan Perry
Rangers: Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, Darren Oliver, Yoshinori Tateyama, Scott Feldman, Michael Gonzalez, Alex Ogando

This is where this series is going to be won and lost, as far as I'm concerned. Both teams have enough pitching, it's just going to depend on which team pitches as they're capable of pitching. The Tigers have a formidable back end, but with the additions of Adams and Uehara Texas is tough at the end of the game, too.

If Detroit and Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta can get to the Rangers, they'll win. If Texas and Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre and Michael Young can get to that Tiger 'pen, they'll win. It seems such an obvious thing to say, but hey...I'm no expert on either of these teams.

All I know is: they're both really good.

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Series Preview: Cleveland Indians

Lewie Pollis of Indians blog Wahoo Blues and I exchanged questions for the Cleveland's four-game set against the Twins over the next three days. He'll have my answers to his questions up on his site later today, but in the meantime here are his answers to my questions. Thanks to Lewie (who I've been inexplicably calling Lewis in our email exchanges) for coming back to us, and thanks to Lewie for his time!

1. Carlos Santana is experiencing some learning curves, but it's good to see him back and having some success and being such an integral part of the season the Indians have had so far. What were your expectations for him coming into 2011, and where do you think he's at right now in terms of his development?

I had Santana pegged as an All-Star for 2011 if he could stay, and while he didn't actually get picked for the Midsummer Classic, I'd say he's actually exceeded my expectations this year. He's a solid defensive catcher, with some very solid pop (.853 Power Factor). And then there's the legendary plate discipline—he's second only to Jose Bautista for the best walk rate (17.3%) in all of Major League Baseball. Yeah, he's only hitting .227, but he's got a .360 OBP.


Not to mention he's been extremely unlucky. Someone with his kind of power and pitch selection should be doing a lot better than a .249 BABIP. The Hardball Times' xBABIP Calculator gives him an expected hit rate of .309. According to my calculations, that gives him an expected slashline of .271/.404/.502 with a 156 xOPS+. Them's MVP numbers for a catcher. 

2. Matt LaPorta had such shimmering triple slash lines in the minors. Is he a late-bloomer or a bust, and what do you expect of him in the future?

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Pitcher Preview: Francisco Liriano vs Bruce Chen

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Visit our Facebook page to see a much larger version.

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Pitcher Preview: Anthony Swarzak vs Jake Peavy

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Swarzak has his work cut out for him today.

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Pitcher Preview: Brian Duensing vs Gavin Floyd, plus Nick Blackburn and Mark Buehrle

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On the surface, two very similar pitchers. And, since I've apparently screwed this up by swapping Duensing and Blackburn's nights to pitch, you can get a look at the graphic I had prepared for tomorrow night just after the jump: Blackburn versus Buehrle. Sorry folks.

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Pitcher Preview: Carl Pavano vs Philip Humber

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Beyond the Box Score has used graphics exactly like this before. But I like them, so I'm lifting it.

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A Quick Glance at the Rays

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It's hard to talk about the Rays without gushing all over the place. They scout well, they draft well, they do well with their free agent signings, and they are very good at surrounding their core talent with solid veterans and talented young players. This season Casey Kotchman, Kyle Farnsworth, Johnny Damon and Juan Cruz are those veterans. Justin Ruggiano and Sam Fuld have been two of the youngesters making big impacts.

The Twins have been a successful organization over the last decade plus because of how they've chosen to brand their business. But whatever the Twins do, over the last ten seasons the Rays have done it better. Starting today, let's see how a rebounding Minnesota squad deals with one of the most talented rosters from one of the smartest front offices in baseball.

A quick refresher course on the Rays and their stats after the jump.

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