For over 24 hours now, we've heard all the reasons there's no chance the Twins can beat the mighty Yankees in the ALDS. Massive payroll, won 103 games, scored 915 runs, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, etc. Yesterday's 7-2 loss only reinforces the lopsided matchup in the eyes of most media and fans.  Since we're not going to hear much other than the Yankees inevitable march to the World Series on the ESPN and TBS coverage, here are five real reasons to be optimistic about the Twins' chances in the remaining four games:

1. The great equalizer - a five game series. It's much easier for David to beat Goliath in a short series as opposed to a seven game series or a full season. It's not a coincidence that the Yankees' last three playoff runs have ended in ALDS losses to the Angels (2005, in 5 games), Tigers (2006, 4 games) and Indians (2007, 4 games). Also, New York won game one in both 2005 and 2006 before losing each series. 
2. Multiple Off Days - At this point of the season, it's pretty clear that Brian Duensing, however gritty on the mound, is the Twins' #4 starter behind Baker, Blackburn and Pavano. With off days on Thursday, Saturday and Tuesday, the Twins could go with Blackburn-Pavano-Baker and then bring Blackburn back in game 5 on normal rest. Seriously, the five game schedule looks like an NBA playoff series with the off days.
   
3. New York Rotation - Beyond CC Sabathia, there is a lot more inconsistency and uncertainty than you might think. A.J. Burnett has been wild at times (97 walks in 207 innings) and was awful in August (0-4 with a 6.03 ERA), Andy Pettitte has allowed 17 runs over his last five starts (27.1 innings), showing signs of wearing down after 194.2 innings, and who knows who NY will throw in Game 4. Joba? Mitre? Bring it on. Of course, NY could bring out CC in Game 4 and AJ in Game 5 if needed, but frankly, I have more confidence in Blackburn in a Game 5 than in AJ.
4. New York Pressure - The Twins are the underdog. No one expects them to beat the mighty Yankees, so they can play as loose as they want. On the other hand, the Yankees live in a fishbowl. All the Yankees fans I've talked to are expecting a sweep, and are already scouting the Angels and Red Sox for the ALCS. Once Minnesota forces game 4 and 5, there are going to be a lot of arms approaching pinstriped throats.
5. The Metrodome - I'm not sure any team, including the Yankees, can beat the Twins in the Metrodome right now. There is some serious positive mojo going on, given the sweep of the Royals, Vikes-Packers, and one game playoff. If the Twins can win these two home games (like I think they will), all they need is a split in the remaining two games in NY. A difficult, but certainly a realistic task. 

All said, the outcome of Game 1 hasn't changed my series prediction. Twins shock the world by taking Game 5 in NY, celebrating on the new Yankee Stadium field. Who's with me?

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Current Series

3 game series vs Tigers @ Metrodome

Detroit Tigers Bless You Boys @ Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town Friday, Sep 18, 2009, 8:10 PM EDT Metrodome Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing   Complete Coverage >
Sat 09/19		4:10 PM EDT
Sun 09/20		2:10 PM EDT

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Games back:  4.0

For weeks we've been back and forth on this.  Every time the Twins hit a streak of luck and run off a couple of wins they manage to take a step back.  And yet every time they're pushed to the brink, to the point where it seems they can do no right and nothing more than a whisper would push them into the abyss of elimination, they find a way to scratch and fight back above .500.

In most divisions that wouldn't be good enough.  But in the AL Central it's a reality, and it's making for another heartburn-happy September.

Thanks to Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals, the Tigers will be prowling through Minneapolis this weekend with a four-game lead over our Minnesota Twins.  Forget records, this is all about the gap to first place.  We all understand what's at stake here.

Injury Report

Twins:
Both Justin Morneau and Joe Crede are out for the season, leaving the middle of the order down 40% on their power hitters.  Michael Cuddyer is filling in at first base, giving Ron Gardenhire the chance to play Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young everyday.  Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris will be picking up more of the time at third.

Tigers:
Dontrelle Willis has been out for some time, but both Nate Robertson and Jarrod Washburn are fighting injuries and won't pitch this series.  Detroit has no scheduled starter for Sunday's contest.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, September 18:  Rick Porcello vs Brian Duensing
Saturday, September 19:  Justin Verlander vs Carl Pavano
Sunday, September 20:  TBA vs Scott Baker

Opposition Focus

Rick Porcello:  For a kid who won't be able to legally drink until two days after Christmas, Porcello doesn't seem to be too worked up over the pressure he's been facing with his team down the stretch.  His fastball has good sink and it's been his best pitch, while his breaking ball(s) and off-speed pitch haven't been quite as effective.  Porcello will beat you by inducing contact, and because his ground ball rates are so good (54.8%) you'll need to string together two or three hits on most occasions before you score a run.  If he does let one get up, however, they're a little more likely to get a little boost.  If the Twins are getting a lot of line drives or are hitting some hard flies on Friday night, it should be a sign that they're seeing him pretty well.  Hopefully that would turn into runs.  If Porcello gets into a groove, however, those innings could start flying by with nothing more to show than a string of 6-3 put outs.

Justin Verlander:  Verlander is good.  I'd probably vote for Zack Greinke for the Cy Young, but Verlander isn't too far off.  Over 12.1 innings in two starts versus the Twins this year he's allowed seven runs over 12.1 innings, giving up 12 hits, five hits and striking out 19.  Yes, 19.

Magglio Ordonez:  He's really bounced back, and all that's missing from his game is power.  Sort of like Bobby Abreu.  Only with less power.  He's back to hitting third for the Tigers, hitting .347/.418/.493 since the All-Star break.

Brandon Inge:  Still looks like the biggest jerk to ever jerk a jerk.  Doing a great Joe Crede impression this year.  If Joe Crede were healthy.

Adam Everett:  Anybody wish we'd given him another shot?  He's hitting a paltry .244/.296/.335, but that's not much worse than some of our other infielders.  His UZR/150 is only 4.2, but that's better than any of the five guys the Twins have tried at the spot this year.  For reference, Orlando Cabrera's UZR/150 with the Twins is -17.9.  He's also still making plenty of plays outside of his zone (36 and counting), although not as frequently as he once was.

Miguel Cabrera:  Also awesome.  The man is only 26 and has amassed 438 205 home runs.  In the history of the Minnesota Twins, only Harmon Killebrew [edit:  and Kent Hrbek and Bob Allison and Tony Oliva and Kirby Pucket end edit] and has ever hit more home runs than a 26-year old.  Incredible.  And let's not even pretend he's a one-dimensional offensive force.

Fernando Rodney:  Tigers fans, this is a closer.  Rodney isn't a bad pitcher, but after dealing with Todd Jones for so long it has to be like watching the second coming of...wait...oh my god, really?  Todd Jones is Detroit's career save leader?  I feel so dirty.

You want meaningful autumn baseball?  This might be as close as we get.  Get out and support the Twins this weekend if you can, and if not, then we'll see you here.

Going In, In Brief

The Twins (43-40), who probably should have swept the Detroit Tigers over the weekend, managed to take two of three to win their fourth series in a row.  In fact, Minnesota has only lost two series since the beginning of June, carrying an 18-13 record over that period of time.  Six critical home games are on the docket before the All-Star break, and with first place within reach it's the most critical stretch of the season so far.  The Yankees and the White Sox aren't pushovers by any stretch of the imagination either, meaning our boys will have to come to play.

Visiting Minneapolis are the Yankees (48-34), who are 10-2 in their last 12 games.  As usual, the Bombers sport an All-Star lineup, supported by a couple of strong pitching performances.  This morning, they're one game off the pace of the BoSox in the AL East, and with their current surge they're no doubt looking at the Twins like C.C. Sabathia [insert generic food joke here].

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, July 7:  C.C. Sabathia VS Scott Baker
Wednesday, July 8:  A.J. Burnett VS Glen Perkins
Thursday, July 9:  Sergio Mitre VS Anthony Swarzak

Opposition Focus

C.C. Sabathia:  There's something different about Sabathia this summer.  In spite of having a very solid season overall (balls are staying in the park, good run supression), the strikeouts are down.  He's throwing fewer first-pitch strikes, guys aren't swinging at as many balls outside of the strike zone, and I have to believe that it's all coming from one place:  his slider.  It's been his knee-breaking slider that's been his best pitch for his entire career, but for some reason, this season it's not as sharp.  His fastball has been more effective than it's been in three or four years, but FanGraphs charts runs over average on individual's pitch selections.  Sabathia's slider, in 2008, was 33.9 runs above average (3.56 runs per 100 pitches); this season it's just 2.2 runs above average (0.59 runs per 100 pitches).  Compare that to Francisco Liriano, whose slider is calculated to be 8 runs above average this year.  With Sabathia's best pitch taken away, he's still good enough to be very effective with his total arsenal, particularly with the fastball.  But there is a chink in the armor.  Could it have something to do with his bicep tweak a couple of weeks ago?

A.J. Burnett:  The 32-year old right-hander is on a hot streak, having allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts.  In that stretch he's struck out 34 men in 27.1 innings, allowing just 16 hits.  This is the enigma of A.J. Burnett.  Usually he's very serviceable, reliable when healthy to be a good #2 starter in any rotation.  But then he goes on streaks like this, absolutely demolishing anyone who steps into the box, and you're suddenly reminded why teams like the Yankees are willing to shell out Ace-esque dough to get him in uniform.  His FIP is 4.54, a bit higher than the standard ERA of 3.83.  He throws strikes, and it's his curveball that's been his best pitch for a couple of years now.  If he can get it to work against some of our free-swingers, it could be another day of strikeouts for Burnett.

Sergio Mitre

#61 / Pitcher / New York Yankees

Height: 6-3

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 16, 1981

 

Sergio Mitre:  MLB.com lists Mitre as the most likely candidate for the job on Thursday, but there's no guarantee that the Yankees won't choose someone else to pitch for the injured Chien-Ming Wang.  If Mitre does get the callup, then the 28-year old right-hander will get his first shot at The Bigs with the Yankees, following stints with the Florida Marlins ('06 - '08) and Chicago Cubs ('01 - '05).  He missed all of 2008, having spent three stints on the disabled list with the Marlins in 2007, to have Tommy John surgery last July.  Yet the Yankees signed him in November, and after serving a 50-game suspension for testing positive for androstenedione (while on the DL) he pitched well in triple-A.  This could be his first appearance in MLB since September 15, 2007.  It should also be noted that Mitre doesn't like you.  His mug shot confirms it, and I thought you should be aware.

Alex Rodriguez:  A-Rod is still on his down year, hitting just .244, but when your OBP is .412 and you can still slug .517, nobody should care about a lousy batting average.  This is what great hitters do.  They find other ways to get on base and get the job done.  I know he turns 34 in a couple of weeks, but I have to believe this is less telling of a decline on the part of Rodriguez, and more just a bump in the road.  He's a .305 career hitter, and I'd bet he'll top that mark once or twice more in a season before he retires in about ten years.  He'll hit a slider just as easily as a fastball, so the best thing to do against him is to mix up the speeds, mix up the locations and just keep the ball at his knees.

Derek Jeter:  I love to hate Jeter, I really do.  I love to hate his over-rated defense, I love to hate his attitude when he turns around and complains to the umpire about a called third strike, and I love to hate how he represents the great dynasty of the Yankees over the last fifteen years.  But there's no denying that he's one of the game's best hitters, in the history of baseball.  You can't ask any more, at least offensively, from a shortstop who's put up numbers like Jeter year after year, and he's still not slowing down.  He's a great fastball hitter, and a great contact hitter in general, so Twins pitchers shouldn't be afraid to feed him a steady diet of breaking balls.

Robinson Cano:  He's having a bounceback season, hitting more like he did in 2007 although not nearly as elite as he was in '06.  Not particularly weak against either hand, Cano is another great fastball hitter.  There are no easy outs in most of the Bomber batting order, so hopefully our boys are feeling their off-speed and breaking pitches this week.

Mark Teixeira:  He's just good.  Really, really, realy good.  Tex is hitting a few more fly balls than usual this year, and not as many line drives, meaning his BABIP and batting average have suffered a bit.  In spite of it, he's still having a superb season at the dish (.928 OPS), and according to FanGraphs he's an even better fastball hitter than the guys I just mentioned.

It's been awhile since we've done one of these.  Kicking off a weekend series against a team we should (in my biased mind) be able to beat seemed a good time to examine a few of Seattle's leaders.  Just percentage points off Minnesota, the Mariners are winners of five of their last seven.

Continue reading this post »

What's New In KC?

Royals General Manager Dayton Moore had two main goals over the winter, judging from what he accomplished.  First, he was to bring in a couple of free agents to flesh out the roster and to ensure his team was competetive.  Second, whoever was brought in couldn't be paid at the expense of blocking a potential prospect.  For the most part, Moore succeeded.  Coco Crisp came on board to provide reliable defense in center field, and Mike Jacobs now hits home runs wearing Royal Blue.  In the pitching department, Kyle Farnsworth, Doug Waechter and Juan Cruz are all parts of the revamped bullpen that was put together to lock down wins earned by top three starters Zack Greinke, Brian Bannister and Gil Meche.

Greinke, Bannister and Meche are joined in the rotation by Kyle Davies, Sidney Ponson.  It's certainly not a great rotation, but it's a good front three, so if they can get league average performances from Davies as the number four guy and Mullet Ponson as the number five, there could be some surprises out of Royal country this summer.

Swing by Royals Review to check out their very active site, it's one of the bigger ones for the division.

Probable Pitchers

Sidney Ponson:  I expect the Twins to thoroughly man-handle Ponson (is there any other way he'd like to be handled?), but I expect any team to hit him around.  He doesn't always fall into my happy pigeon hole, which is why it says this about him in MLB.com's scouting report for tomorrow:

The Royals are still trying to cautiously figure out what they have in starter Sidney Ponson.

Minnesota was asking themselves the same question two years ago.  The answer is simple:   a veteran who can eat innings if you ask him to, and might have one good start a month, but generally will be ineffective at best.  So far as a Royal, Ponson has alternated a poor start with a good one.  By that precedent, he's ready for another bad one.

Brian Bannister:  In two starts he's been wildly successful.  Pun intended.  Four hits and two walks in six innings during his 2009 debut; six hits and one walk in seven innings his last time out.  In spite of the baserunners, Bannister sports a 0.69 ERA, which is in stark contrast to his 4.56 FIP.  I said this about Aaron Laffey of the Indians last week, but if the Twins are patient with Bannister and wait for their pitch, they'll have their chances to score runs.

Gil Meche:  Currently slated to start the Sunday afternoon game, Meche's back may keep him out, in with case Horatio Ramirez may step in.  If Meche does pitch he's likely to be feeling himself out a bit, which is usually an advantage for the hitter.  Should he be healthy however, this is a guy who can be as effective as anyone when he's on his game. Finally, after ten years in the league Meche is finally 30.  He'll turn 31 in September.

Hot and Cold

There are three things we all should know about Tampa Bay:

1. The last time most of us thought about them, they were good. When we left our story, the Rays were busy losing the World Series to Philadelphia.
2. They are no longer called the "Devil" Rays.
3. Thus far in 2009, they sure look like the same 'ol Devil Rays, not the new-look Rays.

We start with the following fact, to help explain why the Rays are 7-12 and last in the AL East:

Jason Bartlett is leading the Rays in hitting.

That must be terrifying enough for Rays fans, right there.

The Rays are fifteenth in the majors in runs scored (83) and thirteenth in runs allowed (83 as well), which theoretically should make them an average team, but they've done a lot of winning 9-3 while losing 3-2 and such. As a matter of fact, they've scored four or more runs in only eight of their nineteen matchups.  And so here's the second fact that helps explain the Rays' struggles:

When scoring four or more runs, the Rays are 7-1.  When scoring three or fewer, Tampa is 0-11.

The problem seems to be a lineup problem.  Bartlett, Evan Longoria, and Akinori Iwamura are all hitting over .300, and Carl Crawford is hitting a lot of singles, but the four are spread out throughout the order.  BJ Upton, the leadoff hitter, has a .208 on-base percentage.  After Crawford and Longoria is cleanup hitter Carlos Pena and DH Pat Burrell, who are hitting a combined .240.  And then before Iwamura and Bartlett are Ben Zobrist (.256) and catcher Dioner Navarro, who at .186 is tied with Alexi Casilla for the 15th-worst average in the majors this year.

This is how the Rays, seventh in the AL in OPS, are tenth in runs and have scored three or fewer runs in eleven out of nineteen games.

+ Pitching Matchups

Friday: Jeff Niemann vs. Scott Baker

Niemann, who's in his first (presumably) full major league season, is 1-2 this year but has pitched okay.  You will not miss him; he will fill most of your TV screen, at 6'9", 260. He gave up five runs in his first inning of the year, including a Melvin Mora grand slam, but apart from that has a 2.87 ERA this season.

Saturday: James Shields vs. Francisco Liriano

Shields is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA, including a 1-0 loss to Seattle last week. He's gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, giving up zero, one, and five runs in those games.  On the other side, though, the Rays are just 1-6 against left-handed pitchers this year, which augurs well for Francisco Liriano.

Sunday: Scott Kazmir vs. Nick Blackburn

Kazmir has benefited from most of Tampa's runs; they've scored 33 in his four starts, and he's 3-1.  He still walks too many guys (just over one every two innings), but the league is hitting just .220 against him.

+ Quotes

"It's an embarrassing start." - Tampa Bay SP Andy Sonnanstine, on his 0-3 beginning to the year

"Usually you build a park to benefit your team, the home team. But that's just going to hurt, because they're going to have to pitch more in the cold than anyone else." - Matt Garza, on Minnesota's decision to build an outdoor park

"Good riddance." - Garza on the Dome, where he's 1-10 career.

"It was great. Couldn't have it any better, could we? I was very happy with how everything worked out." -- Carlos Pena, speaking far too soon following a players-only meeting in Seattle

[Quote source: The St. Petersburg Times]

+ Schedule

Easy, really: All three games are at 7:10, on Fox Sports Net (HD) in the Twin Cities, and on the Twins Radio Network.

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

7 months ago: Chicago White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski, left, talks to start pitcher Mark Buehrle during the first inning in the season opener baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Tuesday, April 7, 2009 in Chicago.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

What's new on the South Side?

Gone are Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera and Javier Vasquez; in their places are Michael Restovich, Brent Lillibridge and Bartolo Colon.  Those replacements aren't necessarily as vaunted, but that doesn't mean the Sox offense is going to be any worse.  This should remain a team that's able to score runs; the question is whether the pitching can keep up.

Removing Joe Crede and Juan Uribe also removes two OBP's that can sometimes struggle to break .300.  Chicago also ousted aging role players like Toby Hall, Pablo Ozuna and Ken Griffey Jr.  Those moves are positive, but the batting order is still an aging one:  Jim Thome (38), A.J. Pierzynski (32), Paul Konerko (33) and Jermaine Dye (35) aren't getting any younger.

Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks will need to stave off regression this year, which seems unlikely.  If the White Sox are vulnerable anywhere, it's their starting pitching.  At least, those are my two cents going into the season...that judgment is bound to change.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, April 10:  R.A. Dickey VS Jose Contreras
Saturday, April 11:  Francisco Liriano VS Bartolo Colon
Sunday, April 12:  Nick Blackburn VS Mark Buehrle

Opposition Focus

Jose Contreras:  Can you believe this is only Contreras' seventh year in the league?  The guy looks ancient and it seems like he's been around forever.  At any rate, last year saw him garner the highest ground-ball percentage of his career (51%), possibly because of the additional splitters he threw.  He hasn't been a strikeout guy for a few years, and every season since he arrived with the Yankees in '03 has seen hitters make more and more contact against what he offers (83.6 contact % in '08).  For him to be effective, then, Contreras needs to continue to limit walks, continue to work the splitter, and to not be afraid of contact.  His pitches will get hit, so the best he can do is just keep the ball down and give his defense some chances for easy outs and double plays.  Be sure to check out the pysique:  it's been said he's shed 30 pounds.

Bartolo Colon:  In late March, Colon's fastball finally topped 90 mph.  For a nearly 36-year old pitcher whose offspeed pitch came in at 84 last season, it's imperitive to keep that velocity above 90.  Colon's injury history is daunting:  right shoulder (2001), back spasms (2003), right shoulder (2005), right shoulder (2006), right tricep (2006), rotator cuff (2007), right tricep (2007), right elbow (2007), back (2008).  I think that's all.  Basically, I'm not sure what to expect from Colon.  Either his right arm falls off, his back gives out, or he'll be okay.  I hate to see the game taken away from guys who used to be as good as Colon used to be.

Mark Buehrle:  He's anchored the Sox staff seemingly forever now, and usually he does pretty well.  Buehrle can pitch late into a game, he throws more junk at you than that creepy cat lady everyone knows, and when he's in the zone there isn't much you can do against him.  But the Twins know him pretty well, and he's been susceptible to big innings against Minnesota in the past, so here's hoping Sunday is a day where he finds it difficult to focus.  Because on those days, he's toast.  Fun fact:  Buehrle hasn't pitched fewer than 200 innings since his rookie season of 2001.

Josh Fields:  After mashing 23 homers in '07, Chicago largely kept Fields in triple-A last season in an attempt to...I'm not sure, probably A) let him play everyday and B) let Joe Crede play everyday.  When he was healthy.  He's off to a hot start (3-for-7, 2 BB), and his offense looks in the mold of Crede.

A.J. Pierzynski, Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz, Dewayne Wise:  Up the middle, the Sox have started 4-for-42.  Getz and Wise shouldn't be threats most of the time, but Pierzynski is a good contact hitter and Ramirez destroyed the Twins at times last season.  They could be slightly more motivated for this series.

Jim Thome:  He will play until he's 50, and every season he'll do the exact same thing.  No batting average, lots of walks, lots of power.

Lineups

After the first two games saw Ozzie Guillen trot out the same lineup, in game three against the Royals they mixed things up a bit, although they used the same nine players.  Based on that last game, expect a batting order something like this:

Getz, 2B
Pierzynski, C
Quentin, LF
Thome, DH
Dye, RF
Konerko, 1B
Ramirez, 2B
Wise, CF
Fields, 3B

Conclusions & Predictions

Baseball never ends up how you expect it to; it's one of the reasons you have to love it.  Having justified what I'm about to say with that disclaimer, even though the Twins are in Chicago this weekend I think they could still take two of three from the Sox.  Contreras and Colon are big question marks, and after game 163 last fall I have a lot of confidence watching Blackburn take on the Black & White on hostile turf.

Game 1:  Twins 5, Sox 3
Game 2:  Twins 7, Sox 6
Game 3:  Sox 3, Twins 1

I realize some of you may be looking out your windows right now, from work or from home, and you're still seeing snow.  But you know what?  Today is Opening Day.

You know what?  It's a Monday.  Monday's can suck, especially if you work a standard office job.  But you know what?  Today is Opening Day.  And from today, for six months, the most beautiful game on the planet is here to grace your evenings.

Sometimes, your afternoons, too.

What's new in Seattle?

Ken Griffey Jr has returned for one last hurrah with the Mariners, giving his club one season with which to justify a ballpark that was built, seemingly, for him.  A few other veterans have been acquired as well, including Mike Sweeney, Russell Branyan and Jamie Burke (yes, you remember him...and he remembers Torii), but after gluttonous and irresponsible spending the last few seasons, Seattle's new regime has realized the need to rebuild.  A few hold-overs remain, like Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, but this is clearly a team that (at least for 2009) appears to be biding its time.  Come the trade deadline, the Mariners should have a number of useful commodities that could help them turn the corner to contention a bit faster.

Probable Pitchers

Monday, April 6:  Felix Hernandez VS Francisco Liriano
Tuesday, April 7:  Erik Bedard VS Nick Blackburn
Wednesday, April 8:  Carlos Silva VS Kevin Slowey
Thursday, April 9:  Jarrod Washburn VS Glen Perkins

Opposition Focus

Felix Hernandez:  With a great fastball and complimentary breaking stuff, Hernandez (who turns 23 on Wednesday) has all the makings of an Ace.  He's a strikeout threat, he keeps the ball on the ground (52.1 groundball rate in '08) and he can log the innings.

Erik Bedard:  If the Mariners do want to contend in 2009, they need Bedard to have a big season.  He relies heavily on his fastball and his curve, and if he can stay healthy while mixing in a third and fourth pitch, he stands a very good chance of delivering the performance Seattle would like him to have.  Seattle dealt mega-prospect Adam Jones for Bedard, so at the very least I'm sure they'd like a decent return on him come July.

Carlos Silva:  Forget about the moronic deal Silva was served by Bill Bavasi's Mariners; what we saw in 2008 was the fracturing of a pitcher.  Silva survived with the Twins by guile, smoke and mirrors, keeping the ball in the park a little more often than he did last year, and luck.  Last season the baserunners caught up with him, and once they were on base he had a harder time keeping them from scoring.  If the Mariners want any of that ridiculous salary off their backs for 2010, Silva's resurrection needs to happen now.

Jarrod Washburn:  I'm just glad he's not a member of the Twins.  Seriously.  He's a decent veteran, and in general you know what you'll get from him on a yearly basis.  Unfortunately for the Mariners, what you get isn't necessarily positive.  According to FanGraphs, his FIP over the last three seasons has been between 4.72 and 4.78.

Yuniesky Betancourt/Jose Lopez/Ronny Cedeno:  Betancourt and Lopez are decent contact hitters, but with Cedeno on the roster after a few years with the Cubs they'll both have pressure to perform.  None of them are All-Stars, but between the three of them the Mariners have good depth in the middle infield.

Mike Sweeney:  At 35, Sweeney is displaying what looks like a pretty traditional career arc.  The ability is still there as far as hitting goes, it's just a matter of keeping him on the field and getting him his opportunities.  Adrian Beltre will be in the middle of the order, but having a healthy and productive Griffey and Sweeney would at least give the Mariners a little punch.

Ichiro Suzuki:  He's starting the season on the disabled list.  Bad for him, good for us.

Lineup

With this group of hitters I can't begin to imagine how Seattle will compose their batting order, but I will take a stab at their positional card:

C - Kenji Johjima
1B - Russell Branyan/Mike Sweeney
2B - Jose Lopez
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt
3B - Adrian Beltre
RF - Ken Griffey Jr/Wladimir Balentien
CF - Franklyn Gutierrez
LF - Endy Chavez
DH - Mike Sweeney/Ken Griffey Jr

Branyan demolishes right handed pitching (.280/.377/.653 in 2008), but will likely sit versus southpaws like Liriano and Perkins.  Look for Sweeney to get the nod at first on those occasions, which could lead to the additional changes.

That's all there is for this early-season edition of the series preview.  We'll see you tonight for the game thread!