I've been inspired.

Eric in Madison is one of Twinkie Town's original members, and I'm fairly certain he was onboard for the switch from Twins Territory via Twins Geek over to where we currently chill and chat about Twins baseball.  Eric, you signed up on November 19, 2005.  That was four years ago yesterday.  Well done, sir.

At any rate, I want to get this out of the way:  I usually don't tackle things like this.  Why?  Honestly, part of me doesn't care.  Part of me is more concerned about evaluation of current or prospective players (and prospects) and how they fit into the future of the club.  But part of me, a small part, agrees that it would be extraordinarily helpful in our evaluation of the organization's use of funds if we knew how much they had to spend.  Generally.

This gets a little tricky in that next spring, the Twins more into Target Field.  Revenues will jump, dramatically, because...well, because it will actually be the home of the Minnesota Twins.  For those of you who weren't hip (how about that for dated slang that outdates me), the revenues the Twins received through the Metrodome were stunted because it was a building that belonged to the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikes grabbed a major percentage of revenues from things like parking and beer and hot dogs.  And so now that the Twins have their own park, they'll start to reap the benefit of additional revenue, because they won't have to give up a percentage of it to a sports team that plays a completely different game.

Eric's conversation in the FanPosts is intriquing, and ultimately it asked one question:  how much can we expect the Twins to take in revenue in 2010?

I can't answer that question, because I have no idea how to find out how much more they'll be able to pull in now that revenues belong exclusively to them.  But what I can do, courtesy of Forbes, is tell you what revenues the Twins have pulled in via the Metrodome over the last ten years.

We'll compare those revenues with the payrolls of the following season, because that's how the Twins have allegedly awarded money towards payroll.  We can't use revenues for the the same year as the payroll, because that doesn't make any sense.

Now, these numbers are based off either A) the revenue number provided by Forbes or B) the payroll numbers provided by relevant links or Cots Contracts figures.

The problem is that I can't guarantee what those revenue numbers include, but the Forbes article itself says the Twins spent around 63% of revenue on players over the last five seasons compared to 57% league average.  Obviously the numbers somewhere don't jive.

Minnesota has averaged a $14 million bump in revenue over the last four seasons, but ignore that for now.  If we're taking this season's revenues to calculate next year's payroll, then $83 million isn't a bad total.  No doubt, however, the Twins are correctly anticipating increased revenues thanks to Target Field.

If we want accurate figures there's a lot of research to do, and there's still no guarantee how close or accurate we could be in regards to predicting next year's available payroll.  Knowing what I know now, and keep in mind that is more than subject to whatever facts are laid out in the comments section below, I have to believe the Twins are probably right around the mark in terms of payroll VS revenues.  At least, until someone can prove otherwise.

Free agency looms.  Will any of the Twins five free agents return?

It's been confirmed that the Twins have had opening talks with Carl Pavano's agent, but other than Ron Gardenhire saying he'd be interested in bringing back Orlando Cabrera as his second basemen there's been no news on the rest of Minnesota's remaining free agents.

Mike Redmond

#55 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 05, 1971

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Redmond	45	135	9	32	5	1	0	7	11	19	0	0	.237	.299	.289

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Redmond's had a distunguished career, and he's earned himself a reputation as a "gamer".  He plays hard, he's a leader and he's a mentor.  With Joe Mauer as the game's best catcher and Jose Morales getting his feet wet with some decent results, Redmond's time in Minnesota as a player is likely done.  He'll be 39 next May, and NBP has done the expected and said he'd like to remain with the Twins.

During his five seasons in Minnesota Redmond hit .297/.339/.359 in 931 plate appearances, with 44 walks and 85 strikeouts.  I'll remember him for the "Smell 'Em" bit, for hitting .341 in '06 and for being pretty much the best backup a team could ask for.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Improbable

Ron Mahay

#37 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 28, 1971

 

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	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-0	16	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	7	3	2	1	3	8	2.00	1.11

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The 38-year old southpaw pitched about as well as you could ask him to down the stretch for the Twins, and he helped to solidify the LOOGY role when Jose Mijares lost his mind and threw at Adam Everett.  Over the course of his career he's been a pretty decent relief pitcher, succeeding as a middle relief guy especially when used as that lefty-one-out-guy.  Mahay's struggled with his command for most of his career, and he's averaged 4.4 BB/9 across his last three years.

With fewer positions available than there are arms already it doesn't make sense to bring in a LOOGY when it's going to take seven digits to get him to commit, especially when Mijaries can do the job for a fraction of the cost.  Thanks for the contributions sir, but I think it might be time to shake hands.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Improbable

Joe Crede

#24 / Third Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 26, 1978

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

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He was excatly as advertised in 2009:  great with the glove, some pop in his bat, can't get on base and can't stay on the field.  At points over the last few weeks I've advocated the possibility of bringing Joe back on a similar contract to the one he signed last February, but the more I tihnk about it the worse of an idea it becomes.  If you're going to shell out for a free agent, make sure it's a guy who has a good chance of playing.  Don't pay millions for a guy who will require a contingency plan because he's almost a guarantee to miss stretches of time.  Nick Nelson spells it out much better than I have.

Crede isn't opposed to returning, and I have to agree with Nick:  if the Twins wait this out and try to make something happen at third base but can't by February, then sure, give Crede another shot.  In reality, he might get another shot.  But I won't be upset if he signs elsewhere, and I'm hoping that I can remember him as the guy who hit the grand slam to put us over the White Sox early in the year.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Possible

Orlando Cabrera

#18 / Short Stop / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-9

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Nov 02, 1974

 

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	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera	59	242	42	70	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.289	.313	.430

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O-Cab was a high-energy guy who brought a buzz to the team when they needed it.  Like Crede he came up with some massive and memorable hits, but also like Crede his overall production doesn't warrant a whole lot of consideration for a return.  He's already showing decline, and at 35 he's not going to get better.

Cabrera was great to have around and I'll remember him not just for his homer in game 163, but for his relationship with Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, and for giving the club a shot of adrenaline.  Unfortunately second base isn't going to make his millions any more palatable, particularly when there are so many second base upgrades on the free agent market.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Possible

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

 

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	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carl Pavano	5-4	12	12	0	0	0	0	73.2	85	39	38	7	16	59	4.64	1.37

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This season was a bit of a revival for Pavano, and he proved himself to be a big game pitcher for the Twins down the stretch.  When he's healthy he's can strike a few guys out and has good command, and while he'll be 34 in January he's still young enough to have another good season or two to give.

Pavano has stated he'd like to return to the Twins, and naturally the prospect of playing for a competetive team like Minnesota will have some draw.  Minnesota's interest is likely mutual, but Pavano's future here (unlike the rest of the guys on this list) will depend greatly on what kind of interest he draws from other clubs and how much they'll be willing to pay him next year.

I expect Pavano to get an offer from the Twins within the next couple of weeks.

Odds for a return in 2010:  Realistic

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The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players.  Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll.  How much?  Probably not too much.  But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years.  Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson?  Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled?  Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year.  An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009.  For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys.  Read all about them after the break.

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We have conflicting reports on whether Mauer contract extension talks have actually started. Joe C. in this morning's Star Tribune: "Contract talks haven't started". My guess is this is Mauer downplaying any preliminary discussions that may be taking place. No cause for alarm...yet.

Other random notes (many thanks to MLB Trade Rumors):

• Joe C. also notes that Carl Pavano's agent had an "excellent first meeting" with the Twins, and that Glen Perkins has settled his grievance. 
• According to Joel Sherman, Detroit has reportedly put Curtis Granderson on the block. According to Phil Rogers, the Cubs need to go after him. Considering their need for left handed hitting, this would make a lot of sense. 
• Buster Olney is skeptical that the major free agents, Bay, Holliday and Lackey, will receive a $100M contract this offseason. Does this make Mauer a bit more affordable?
  
• MLB.com's Mark Bowman thinks the Braves may trade Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Would the Twins have any interest for the top of their rotation?
• Jeff Zriebec of the Baltimore Sun thinks the Orioles may be interested in bringing Erik Bedard back to Baltimore, and that they might be players in the 3B market. 
• As many of you know, Carlos Gomez is a "Super 2", eligible for arbitration now that he's a Brewer. Apparently Adam Jones, Mike Fontenot and Micah Owings are all right on the cutoff point, and Fontenot was selected as the last Super 2. This saves the Orioles a lot of money, but it may also make Fontenot available. Not the most attractive option, but he was mentioned here last offseason.
  
• Dave Cameron thinks the Marlins may have waited too long to shop Dan Uggla. Has the price gone down?

Are there really any surprises?  We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable.  In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had.  Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004.  In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well.  In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players.  If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers.  In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward.  But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

 

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

• Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
• Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
• The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward.  He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point.  The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot.  But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

No, no, no, no, no.  A thousand times, no.  I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit.  Every morning tell him it's September.  I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate.  The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer?  You could argue it's too much to pay a closer.  But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players?  There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around.  If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had.  Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch.  If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months.  No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship.  If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package.  I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know.  This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

 

This is a reality, although it may surprise some.  There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top.  Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster.  With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

 

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward.  It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact.  And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively.  Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers.  But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot.  He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

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The Twins won their fifth division title in eight years in 2009, beating the odds, the payroll mountain, and the Tigers and White Sox along the way.  Nevertheless, there are plenty of people who are unhappy with team management.  Lots of people want Bill Smith fired, for a number of reasons; some people also want Ron Gardenhire gone. 

So, which camp are you in?

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We did this last year, so it's only fair to do a 2009 version as well.  Twins baseball is over until April, and over forever in the Metrodome, and it's hard not to be a little bit sad about that.

That's certainly not the only feeling this morning, though.  No doubt there's a certain amount of rage, some of it directed at Phil Cuzzi, much of it probably aimed at Darrell Evans Nick Punto.

So, how are you doing?

It's playoff time once again.  Amazingly, if you count one-game playoffs (and you should, I think), this is the sixth time in eight years that the Twins are participating in playoff baseball.

Today's poll question: how far do you think they'll go, this time?