Are there really any surprises?  We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable.  In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had.  Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004.  In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well.  In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players.  If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers.  In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward.  But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

 

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

• Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
• Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
• The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward.  He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point.  The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot.  But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

No, no, no, no, no.  A thousand times, no.  I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit.  Every morning tell him it's September.  I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate.  The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer?  You could argue it's too much to pay a closer.  But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players?  There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around.  If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had.  Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch.  If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months.  No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship.  If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package.  I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know.  This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

 

This is a reality, although it may surprise some.  There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top.  Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster.  With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

 

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward.  It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact.  And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively.  Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers.  But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot.  He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

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The Twins won their fifth division title in eight years in 2009, beating the odds, the payroll mountain, and the Tigers and White Sox along the way.  Nevertheless, there are plenty of people who are unhappy with team management.  Lots of people want Bill Smith fired, for a number of reasons; some people also want Ron Gardenhire gone. 

So, which camp are you in?

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We did this last year, so it's only fair to do a 2009 version as well.  Twins baseball is over until April, and over forever in the Metrodome, and it's hard not to be a little bit sad about that.

That's certainly not the only feeling this morning, though.  No doubt there's a certain amount of rage, some of it directed at Phil Cuzzi, much of it probably aimed at Darrell Evans Nick Punto.

So, how are you doing?

It's playoff time once again.  Amazingly, if you count one-game playoffs (and you should, I think), this is the sixth time in eight years that the Twins are participating in playoff baseball.

Today's poll question: how far do you think they'll go, this time?

I've asked this question, in one way or another, twice this season.  At the end of July, 45% of you thought the Twins couldn't win the division.  Last week, 46% of you thought that they wouldn't. 

Knowing what we now know - two back, seven to play, four in Detroit, etc. - I'll ask again, one more time.

Will they do it?

For those unfamiliar, yours truly is not just Twinkie Town's Friday Daddy, but also does some scrappy, Punto-esque work at the Star-Tribune's RandBall sports blog, where I'm tasked with hunting down sports figures from Minnesota's past to see where they are now.  My most recent quarry was Jamie Quirk, who 25 years ago this Sunday homered in his only career at-bat for the Cleveland Indians, dashing the playoff dreams of the 1984 Minnesota Twins.  Thanks again for ruining my childhood, Ron Davis!

Anyway, it led me to thinking about who was potentially going to play the Jamie Quirk role for the 2009 Twins.  My guesses, along with those of the RandBall commentariat are as follows:

• Zack Greinke.  He is the best pitcher in baseball.  He, not Derek Jeter, should be the name mentioned as competition for Joe Mauer in the MVP race, and should be a mortal lock for the AL Cy Young.  After being fortunate enough to duck him the whole season, the Twins draw him twice in the next ten days.  That is suboptimal for your favorite team's playoff hopes.
  
• Curtis Granderson.  77 career games vs the Twins: 14 HR, 34 RBI, OPS of .911.  I'm surprised the numbers are that low, to be honest.
• Don Kelly.  The defensive replacement who cost the Tigers last Saturday's game.  RandBall reader David Minnesota says, "It'll be a fitting karmic [redacted]-kicker when he hits a ninth inning walk-off off Nathan in the fourth game of the series to knock the Twins out of the race."
• Adam Everett.  As RandBall regular jamax2 observes, "Adam Everett will ruin not one but two Twins seasons." 
  
• Mark Teahen.  becker22, the sharpest RandBall commenter and a proud American, calls the shot: "8:47 p.m. 3 October 2009. Mark Teahen three-run HR off Jesse Crain. Mark it down. I can feel it. Down in my plums. They got a nice bluish hue. I'm getting ready to take them down to the Farmer’s Market."

So, who kills the 2009 Twins dead?  A stud like Greinke, the nondescript Everett, or some September call-up that only roger13 has heard of?  Speculate away.  If it helps, remember that mentioning that player's name jinxes them from actually doing so and leads to a pennant for the Minnesota Twins.

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday!  Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart.  All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics.  Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents.  Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher:  Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base:  Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base:  Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base:  Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop:  Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field:  Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field:  Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field:  Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter:  Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher:  Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher:  Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players.  From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year.  117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises.  Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000.  Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars.  We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record.  But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season?  Will they be allowed to add another $5 million?  $10 million?  Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium.  I tend to this that's pretty high.  I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000.  Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start.  Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base.  Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers:  Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive.  Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options?  If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter?  Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal?  Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base:  Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here?  Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played?  Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base:  Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub.  Belliard is awful.  Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend?  Because he'll come at a cost.  Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop:  Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles.  Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great.  The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics.  So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season.  Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years.  It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash.  Right or wrong.

How would you handle it?  It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around.  Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series.  Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

We've sort of done this before, but with the Twins three back with 13 games to go, the predictions get a lot more simple now. There's only one thing that anybody's going to be discussing today.

Today, I'm not asking if the home team can do it, or should do it, or anything else slightly uncertain.  Today, you get a chance to count yourself as a pennant believer or as a pennant doubter.

The poll question: Will the Twins win the AL Central?