Speculation
Who Will It Be?
Another long night for an abused front-end of a bullpen, and another excuse for the Twins to find a way to improve their relief corps.
On Thursday the Tampa Bay Rays won their claim on relief pitcher Chad Bradford, which of course means that the Twins didn't make a claim on the effective right-handed veteran. Also last week, Scott Schoeneweis cleared waivers, and in spite of being less effective in his career than Bradford has had a pretty good season. As far as anyone knows, there hasn't been a move made on the southpaw from the Mets, either.
Minnesota has publicly stated that they'd like to locate another arm for their bullpen heading into the dog days of summer. While there are still three weeks left in the month with which to find that perfect solution on the waiver wire, in the mean time the pitchers we currently have are either over-extended or rusty. Or so it seems. As we're accustomed to, at some point the Twins will need to look to Rochester to find relief. Pun intended.
The Red Wings don't boast an obvious answer. There isn't a flame throwing rocket arm and there isn't a breaking ball magician waiting in the wings. But there is a small handful of pitchers who've done well, and since the minors is the most likely place for the Twins to get their extra arm that's where we'll turn our focus. When the information is available, I've given brief info on each of the starter's pitches, as well as velocities for each.
Philip Humber, flyball pitcher, fastball (90-92), curve (77), change (82-84): Sometimes starter, sometimes reliever, Humber looked like he'd turned a corner this year until his last start. He gave up four runs on seven hits over 3.1 innings on Thursday. Still, in his four starts since returning to the Red Wings' rotation he's 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 innings, with 25 strikeouts and seven walks. With Glen Perkins taking time off to be with his wife as she goes into labor, you could even see Humber join the Twins for a spot start or two.
Bobby Korecky, fastball (89-92), slider (78-81), change (82-84): After what you could dub a successful brief stint with the Twins earlier in the season, and knowing how the organization runs its personnel, Korecky has to be another favorite to earn a promotion. He's having a good season in Triple-A, and over his last few appearances has sharpened his stat line. Logging 12 innings over his last 10 appearances, Korecky is sporting a 2.25 ERA in that span with 18 strikeouts, just seven hits and a trio of walks. Left-handed hitters do have some success against him (.293 opponent average), but right-handed hitters often seem lost (.198 average, 38 K's in 34 innings).
Ricky Barrett, fastball (90-92), slurve, change: A strikeout machine jonesing for a chance with the Twins, Barrett's a southpaw who can manage hitters no matter which side they dig in from. Over his last seven appearances, he's struck out nine batters and walked three, allowing six hits and just a pair of runs. The opposition is barely over the Mendoza line against Barrett on the season, managing just a meager .204 average.
Mariano Gomez fastball (88-91), curve, change: Another lefty, Gomez allows about a hit per inning, but has been just as effective on the season. Over his last 10 appearances he's struck out 11 and walked three, posting a 3.55 ERA. Hitters are hitting .266 (LH) and .267 (RH) off of him on the season, but he's been bred to pitch at least an inning which gives him more value than a traditional LOOGY.
Kevin Mulvey, fastball (90-93), slider, curve, change: Mulvey's been flying a little under the radar this season, but he's thrown three consecutive quality starts for the Red Wings. So if the Twins need a spot starter and aren't ready for Humber, they could see Kevin as a better solution. He also gives up about a hit per inning, and his strikeout numbers aren't as sexy as some guys on the list, yet Mulvey has been very effective starting for Rochester this season and may be one of the pitchers closest to being Major League ready.
So who do you want? Season stats from Rochester are below.
| Name | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB/9 | K/9 | WHIP |
| Phil Humber | 5.23 | 105.0 | 120 | 18 | 3.90 | 6.99 | 1.57 |
| Bobby Korecky | 3.29 | 63.0 | 58 | 3 | 3.48 | 5.23 | 1.24 |
| Ricky Barrett | 3.00 | 60.0 | 43 | 3 | 4.53 | 10.77 | 1.23 |
| Mariano Gomez | 2.35 | 57.1 | 60 | 3 | 2.77 | 5.69 | 1.34 |
| Kevin Mulvey | 3.78 | 123.2 | 128 | 15 | 2.85 | 7.00 | 1.36 |
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Hot Corner Hot Stove: Hank Blalock
Age: 27
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6'1", 200 lbs
Contract Status: Under contract through 2008; club option in 2009
Profile: Solid, but not great, offensive third baseman whose nagging injuries the last two seasons have hampered productivity. At the plate he's efficient, and can produce home run power to right field. When healthy can play a competent third base. A former All-Star looking to produce as he did pre-shoulder troubles.
Pros: As far as bets go, Blalock might be a fairly safe one if the Twins wanted to attempt to improve their prospect at third base without giving away too much. Blalock has offensive upside and is reaching his physical prime, and doesn't strike out often. He's due roughly $2 MM for the remainder of '08, with a club option for '09 worth $6.2 MM. That's not a bad price for a stop-gap, who could be signed to an extension if necessary while still being young enough to hold down the position for a few years. There's some potential for a low-risk, high-reward pick up here. He showed signs of his old self last season, and also this season prior to his trip to the disabled list.
Cons: He does a lot of things well, but nothing exceptionally, which could be blamed on his injuries...but that doesn't mean they should be ignored. While he doesn't strike out often, he struggles with plate discipline and can swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone. His power potential is likely limited, due to his shoulder problems; his isolated power is .162, and his homer-to-fly ratio is slightly below average. Not for third basemen, for all of baseball. While there's potential here for the Twins to pick up a star for a relatively cheap price, there's a lot of proof that Blalock isn't the producer he was in '03 and '04....maybe even '05. Finally, his splits raise huge red flags. He's another left-handed hitter, which wouldn't be as big of an issue as it is if he could hit left-handed pitching...which he can't (.623 OPS). Additionally, he hits miserably away from Arlington (.670 OPS).
Conclusions: Of all the options available, Blalock is my fallback option IF I can't get anyone else and IF I really don't believe Brian Buscher can hold the fort. He's a great low buy, but having said that the Twins don't have a good history with those deals recently...remember Phil Nevin and Bret Boone? Blalock is certainly better than either of those players, and the possibility of a return is there, but the question the Twins need to ask themselves in regards to the Rangers third baseman is this: Are we in a position where taking this kind of risk is acceptable? If it works out, they're geniuses. If it falls flat on its face, everyone will claim they squandered their shot.
Hot Corner Hot Stove Archive: Garrett Atkins, Adrian Beltre
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Hot Corner Hot Stove: Adrian Beltre
Age: 29
Bats/Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 5'11", 225 lbs
Contract Status: Under contract for 2008 and 2009; due approx. $12 MM in '09
Profile: Superior defender with a rocket arm, Beltre's contract was predicated on an astounding '04 campaign with the Dodgers. Offense hasn't lived up to expectations, but he still may be a bargain as some believe on the open market he'd be worth $15 MM/season. Excellent power to left and center fields, but doesn't go the other way very often and loses ability for the long-ball when he does. Poor plate discipline and strike zone judgement. String of minor health issues.
Pros: Beltre's defensive abilities are a huge bonus in addition to his offensive skills, and in fact they set him apart from other candidates. His power clearly stands above Minnesota's current options, and would be a good supplemental bat who would be well suited to hit fifth or sixth. He's smart on the basepaths and even swipes a bag from time to time. His strikeout rates aren't horrible, and his walk rates are up this year. His ratios do fluctuate from season to season, but he's making solid contact this year and is posting an above average line drive percentage. Finally, he actually excels away from Seattle, hitting .298/.365/.479 when the Mariners are the away team.
Cons: Adrian's health has to be an issue; although he's missed no real time on the field (in fact he plays far more regularly than many starting third basemen), you have to wonder if at some point all those little tweaks that only hamper the player will grow into something more. His isolated power is still just .174 (identical to Garrett Atkins), meaning he may not provide the Twins with as much of the deep-threat offense they're looking for. Typically he walks less often than he has this season, and hasn't finished with an on-base percentage higher than .328 since his tremendous farewell season in Los Angeles. Like Atkins, while he mashes southpaws (.366/.464/.559) which is something this team does desperately needs, he's struggled against right handers (.227/.284/.395). Lastly, his strike zone judgement is horrific, as he takes a cut at one of every three pitches outside the strike zone. Aggression may not be something the Twins need in spades.
Conclusions: I like Beltre's defense, and I like his bat generally. He's definitely an upgrade, but I think my approval of a deal with Seattle for their Gold Glove third baseman would depend entirely on what was sent back to the Mariners as compensation.
Hot Corner Hot Stove Archive: Garrett Atkins
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Hot Corner Hot Stove: Garrett Atkins
Age: 28
Bats/Throws: Right
Height/Weight: 6'3", 215 lbs
Contract Status: 2008: $4.38 MM 2009/2010: Arb Eligible
Profile: Good offensive third baseman in his prime with a lot of power when he can pull the ball. Doesn't go the other way often but can drive it up the middle. Having a good overall season, but splits tell a different story. Adequate defender who is sure handed, but doesn't have the range to stand out.
Pros: Atkins hits right-handed, and would be a good bat to slide in right behind Justin Morneau, enabling Ron Gardenhire to split up his three biggest bats of the moment who are all left-handed hitters: Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. At just 28 he's still in his physical prime, and because he's under team control for the next two seasons is more than just a rent-a-player. Looking long-term, by the time Atkins would reach free agency at age 31 the Minnesota farm system will be in a good position to indicate whether internal options are ready to step into the void. He's an excellent contact hitter, and has superior recognition of the strike zone: his strikeout rate for his career is 14.1%, and he rarely swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Every year since becoming a regular in 2005, he's been above league average in line-drive percentage, with a career ratio of 23.1%.
Cons: His splits are curious, posting a 1.205 OPS versus southpaws this season, but only a .709 OPS versus right handers. Addtionally, he hits .346/.383/.551 at home, but only .259/.294/.401 away from Coors field. Splits are always expected of players, even the best ones, but these are pretty drastic differentials. His walk rates are half of what they were last year. Atkins' isolated power is .174, which isn't horrible, but it's low for a power hitter and his lowest since 2005. In the field, any lack of fundamental defense at third base will draw heavy criticism from Twins fans; if a replacement isn't at least as good in the field as Nick Punto (or for that matter, Corey Koskie), there will be some discontent--whether it's warranted or not. Finally, because he's under team control for another two seasons, his asking price will be steep.
Conclusions: I like Garrett Atkins, and he brings a lot of good things to the table, but two things scare me away from him: those splits, and his potential asking price. He'd be a good fit in Minnesota and would definitely make this team better, but my preference is with another option.
Be sure to drop by later for a review of the next player on our list. In the mean time, what are your thoughts on the Rockies third baseman?
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Third Base, Third Base, Third Base!
How about "Relief Pitcher"?
MLB Trade Rumors tells us that Adrian Beltre's contract wouldn't be a problem, it's the players necessary to do the deal haven't come into celestial alignment. Jayson Stark says the Twins are still in pursuit of Beltre, while Jim Moloney says the Twins are keeping their fingers in the window for Casey Blake...but they're looking at Hank Blalock. Our own Joe Christensen says the Twins are still focused on finding someone to set the bar at the hot corner, but asking prices have generally kept things at a stand still. In addition to the trio of names above, he mentions Garrett Atkins and Bill Hall as well, but in the end Joe C. believes the Twins won't get their third baseman.
While the organization has been predictably silent, or far more sly, as we approach the trade deadline, it has to be asked: What is Minnesota's greatest need? There were a flurry of moves over the winter, of all shapes and sizes, and with many of those moves being a bit more high-visibility than we're used to it's hard to blame a fan base for being a little more antsy. We had a taste of the action and we want more. We have a scratch, and we want it itched.
The vacancy at third base has been an issue for a few years now, that's hard to ignore. But unless you believe Luke Hughes will be ready to step up in 2009 there isn't an answer in the system that could be ready before 2011. At least not a long-term solution with a decent ceiling. Danny Valencia and Diebinson Romero are both at least two years away and there definitely isn't anyone else that's closer, and although Hughes is presenting the organization with a great case for promotion this summer it's not as though his trajectory to the majors has been lit with fire.
But shifting gears to 2008, a season which hasn't been the typical "season of growth" we expected, this is a team that's poised to make a run. Third base isn't a strength, but it isn't the greatest weakness, either. There are two holes in the Minnesota pitching staff, and everyone knows exactly what they are.
First, Francisco Liriano belongs in the starting rotation. This we know. This, the Twins organization also knows. But whether you think Genske's an idiot or not (and he is), the truth of the matter is that the Twins would be better with the young southpaw taking the mound every five days. Sure, the process of making that happen isn't as easy as flipping a switch, but the sooner it happens the better off we'll be.
Second, the bullpen still needs help. With Jon Rauch traded to Arizona and Damaso Marte not on the radar, my sights continue to look to the west coast. The San Diego Padres dealt starter Randy Wolf this week, putting themselves into sell mode. If that's accurate, Heath Bell would be a superior addition to the 'pen.
Last, in my mind, is third base. With Brian Buscher's hot play and Matt Macri in Rochester, they've filled their roles adequately. For the long term there will be a need for a better solution, and even for 2008 an upgrade would mean a great deal, but I'm of the opinion that improvements of sub-par performances would serve this team better in the short run.
Nevertheless, it certainly appears that Minnesota's number one priority is for third base; at least that's the front they're playing. As a result, keep checking back here over the weekend, as one-by-one we'll run through the pros and cons of each of the third basemen on the Twins' wish list:
Garrett Atkins
Adrian Beltre
Casey Blake
Hank Blalock
Bill Hall
[Note by Jesse, 07/25/08 11:34 AM CDT ] Hey all, be sure to swing by Josh's Thoughts. I just saw he has a fairly comprehensive list of bullpen arms that could be good fits with the Twins, including a couple of names listed above: Damaso Marte and Heath Bell.
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