What is Hank Blalock Worth?

by Victor @ Twinkie Town on Nov 23, 2005 4:32 PM EST

The Pi Press is now suggesting that Lohse & Baker could net the Twins Hank Blalock. This would be a mistake.

I have expressed my reservations about this in a comment thread to ubelmann's post "Chain Reaction". Blalock has hit very poorly away from that bandbox they call a baseball field in Arlington, Texas, for his entire career. I think we seriously have to start treating Arlington like Coors field and discount statistics appropriately.

I must give credit to Aaron Gleeman for noticing this trend and providing Blalock's relevant career stats, which are as follows:

HOME AWAY
AVG OBP SLG OPS AVG OBP SLG OPS
.310 .379 .548 .927 .238 .296 .396 .692

Read on past the link for what I reckon he's worth and maybe take the poll.

Now I have heard chatter that Texas are more than willing to ship Blalock, due to his drop in production in 2005, for pitching help. The Twins could use his potential power at 3B, but as the stats suggest, there is significant risk involved.

If Texas are asking for Baker and Lohse, I would not take that deal. In my opinion, the Twins should not give up more than Lohse and Romero and possibly a minor league ptbnl.

Assuming that Texas need more than that to pull the trigger, and if they really want Baker, then perhaps TR could counter-offer Baker, Lohse, and Romero for Mench as well as Blalock.

That seems like a fair trade of Twins pitching depth for Rangers hitting depth. Maybe. Personally, I will be happy to see the back of both Romero and the always tantalizingly disappointing Lohse but I will be sad to see Baker go after showing so much potential in 2005.

Giving up both Lohse and Baker certainly leaves a hole at the back end of the rotation, which is worrying, but it would ensure Liriano makes the rotation from the start of the season, which I would consider a plus. Leaving Guerrier and Bonser competing for the fifth spot in spring training, which is not so bad, I think.

Am I over-reacting to 2005's offensive ineptitude by being willing to sacrifice essentially all of our starting pitching depth for Mench and Blalock? I dunno, you tell me.

Poll

What is Hank Blalock Worth?

Lohse & Romero - He is a significant upgrade

51 votes

Baker & Romero - He is a potential All Star

8 votes

Baker & Lohse - He is Eric Chavez

5 votes

Just Baker - He is a significant upgrade

3 votes

Just Lohse - He sucks away from Arlington

23 votes

Just Romero - I hate Hank Blalock

3 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Kevin Mench

What's with all the love for Kevin Mench?

by Sulla on Nov 23, 2005 4:44 PM EST reply actions

Since we're talking about moving pitchers....

....I guess it matters what you think will happen with the rotation next year. If Romero leaves in any deal, I'd put about a 99.9999% chance of Liriano starting the year in the 'pen in a Santana-esque role as long man, and occaisionally spotting him against a Jacque Jones type.

Also, from the Twins Geek's budget figures, I fear that there is no room in the budget for Lohse. This means that there are two open spots in the rotation, one of which practically HAS to be manned by Scott Baker. Then, I would guess TR finds an NRI veteran pitcher or something else on the cheap in order to fill out the rotation. Late in the season, maybe Liriano would move to the rotation, but given some injury history, the Twins will likely try to limit Liriano's innings.

It is somewhat possible that something about hitting in Texas gets Blalock into bad habits that hurt him on the road. If this is the case, he seems talented enough that he could turn it around if you take him out of Texas. My biggest worry about Blalock is that he is very, very bad against lefties. Mauer and Morneau are already very bad against lefties, and I guess we're getting rid of Jacque, but I'd hate to have another guy who would be most valuable in a platoon role.

by ubelmann on Nov 23, 2005 5:00 PM EST reply actions

the "home/road" split is a start

But I don't think it's everything. There are so many other factors you'd want to look at.

Such as:

UNBALANCED SCHEDULE. What if the Angels & A's pitching staffs owned him last year? That'd be 38 games - almost a quarter of a season - where he was getting clobbered ... by pitchers he'll see six times at most this year.

TYPICAL OR ATYPICAL? Are we dealing with a one-year 'trend' here or does it go back further than that?

AL CENTRAL STATS. Winning inside the division will matter in 2006 - how'd he do against the other staffs in our division?

COMPARED TO WHAT? Numbers are helpful, context moreso. If a hitter hit .250 for the year against a particular staff, you'd be inclined to think he didn't do so well. If the league only hit .220 against that staff, you might reconsider.

BALLPARK OR HOME COOKIN'? Maybe it's the ball park ... maybe he's just more comfortable when he wakes up in his own home and drives himself to the park when it's time (as opposed to having to kill time on the road until it's time). Again, how'd he do at Arlington compared to the league?

DO WE SEE SOMETHING? Was he dinged up last year? Have we spotted something correctable that's affecting his performance?

by BD57 on Nov 23, 2005 9:06 PM EST reply actions

asdf

Blalock played hit very well against LAA and not so well against Oakland.

TYPICAL OR ATYPICAL? Are we dealing with a one-year 'trend' here or does it go back further than that?

Blalock has never hit well outside of Arlington. 2004 was the only year that he wasn't horrifically bad. He was still bad, though.

I certainly wouldn't want a player that I would have to substitute for during road games.

Again, how'd he do at Arlington compared to the league?

Well, the entire league obviously hits better at Arlington.

DO WE SEE SOMETHING? Was he dinged up last year?

Nope. He played in 161 games and there weren't any reports of maladies.

Have we spotted something correctable that's affecting his performance?

The Twins staff shouldn't be trusted to correct any hitter.

by Sulla on Nov 23, 2005 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

Unfortunately....

"The Twins staff shouldn't be trusted to correct any hitter."

Sad, but true.

by ubelmann on Nov 24, 2005 12:45 AM EST reply actions

No kidding...

Case in point - David Ortiz. I don't know if this is true or not, but my understanding is that the biggest difference between Ortiz as a Twin and Ortiz as a Red Sox is that the Red Sox staff lets Ortiz hit the way he is comfortable hitting, while the Twins staff was constantly trying to get Ortiz to shorten his swing. If that's true...well, we've all seen the results of that.

by hornbakr on Nov 24, 2005 11:26 AM EST up reply actions