What rookies will help the Twins in 2006?

by roger on Nov 28, 2005 3:48 PM EST Comment 15 comments

It is less than 90 days till "Pitchers & Catchers" report. What help will the Twins get from their minor league system in 2006? Will they have 5 rookies contributing in key roles next year? And can they get to the playoffs with that many rookies?

First, we are all hoping that Jason Kubel is ready for spring training, or if not, shortly thereafter. Second, barring a trade Scott Baker appears to be penciled into the rotation. Third, Francisco Liriano may also be a part of the rotation, if not when they break camp certainly a month later. Fourth, all indications are that Willie Eyre will be given a chance to be a member of the bullpen, and Fifth, should Luis Rodriguez still be considered a rookie? Will he be given a chance to win the second base job in spring training?

That is 5 rookies who are expected to contribute to a successful 2006 season. And it doesn't include Jason Bartlett who should be the everyday shortstop but can no longer be considered a rookie after being on the team for over half the season in 2005. Other candidates to help at some time in 2006 would include Alex Romero, Garrett Jones and Luis Maza.

Can these 5 rookies make the difference? I expect we won't know till next fall.

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Other pitchers...

I think there are other pitchers that could contribute to the Twins next year. The obvious one is Bowyer, but I could also see Neshak getting a chance at some point, as well as Durbin and Bonser as sleepers, depending on how they do in spring training. The Twins have been relatively lucky with the health of their pitchers the last couple of years, but if a few get hurt or are ineffective, there are several pitchers ready to step in.

Beyond that, it wouldn't suprise me if either Perkins or Span have big years in the minors and are with the Twins by September.

by snuessle on Nov 28, 2005 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

L-Rod and Baker...

...Are not rookies. Baker missed the innings max last year by three innings. L-Rod was on the roster for more than 49 games.

Two of the other three rookies (Kubel and Liriano) will compete for rookie of the year honors, if Gardy actually uses them right. Eyre will probably get Mulholland's role, which is valuable, but not noteworthy.

If the Twins do not get an outside second baseman like Orlando Hudson or Adam Kennedy, I think Maza will have a shot at a job in spring training. if he hits and fields they way he has throughout his minor leagu career, he could end up in 120 games. But Gardy hates rookies, so it's a long shot. Romero might get a shot in Septmber, but I hope he doesn't until then 'casue that would mean Kubel's knee failed to respond. Jones could help out, but I hope not 'cause that means the Twins failed to acquire the DH they've deperately needed since Ortiz left.

Joe Mauer fan since 1998, when I lived next to Cretin's ballfield.

by cmathewson on Nov 28, 2005 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Definition of a Rookie

I wasn't concerned with which rookies qualify for Rookie of the Year. Rather, I concerned with which new players that were not on the team for at least half of last year may help this year. Probably could have also included Bartlett as a 6th, but he was on the roster well over half the season so I didn't include him in the listing.

by roger on Nov 28, 2005 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In that case...

Baker will have the biggest impact of all first full year players as the fourth starter. I see him logging 200 innings with an ERA in the mid 3s, about a strikeout an inning and a walk every nine. Bartlett will have a breakout year and solidify his position as the shortstop of the forseeable future.

It's interesting that under the official rule, both Ford and Mauer missed being rookies by one game. Both would likely have won the award if they had played in one less game the year before. Baker is in that class this year.

Other rookies that could have an impact include Josh Rabe, if Hunter goes down with an injury, and Jason Miller, if the Twins trade Romero and do not acquire a lefty such as Ricardo Rincon in the offseason.

Beyond Neshek, Bonsor, and Durbin, I could see Glen Perkins get a September callup if he continues to pitch like he did in the AFL at Rochester. And Beau Kemp is a long shot to get the call.

One thing to note: Several of the players I mentioned in my two comments are not on the 40 man and available to anyone willing to pay $50,000 and keep them in the big leagues all year.

Joe Mauer fan since 1998, when I lived next to Cretin's ballfield.

by cmathewson on Nov 28, 2005 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett & Baker

I am in total agreement that Bartlett will have a breakout year and Baker will be 180-200 innings. I think over a long season, however, Baker will be a bit under 9K/9IP, perhaps something like 7.5K/9IP. Am also hopeful that Maza gets a good look this spring. He is supposed to be the best of the group defensively, is right handed and has a little pop in his bat (.476SLG last summer at Rochester) on 11HR/275AB.

I also like Jason Miller a ton and have questioned why he wasn't placed on the 40-man roster, perhaps in place of either Gassner or Tyler. What I don't understand is why Barrett went to the AFL (where he struggled with his control with a 9.00era and 6K/13BB in 12 ip) rather than Miller. They both did very well last season at New Britain (Barrett had a 0.51 era in only 17.2 ip with 25K/8BB vs. Miller's 2.72 era in 49.2 ip with 56K/24BB). Miller did better at Rochester where Barrett struggled as a starter (Barrett had a 6.71 era in 63 ip with 64K/52BB vs. Miller's 3.81 era in 26 ip with 27K/17BB). Miller is also younger, 23 next year compared with Barrett, 25. They both seem to strike out 1+ batter per inning, however, everything seems to indicate that Miller should be the better prospect. Who knows, Miller may have not gotten the nod for the AFL for some reason unrelated to baseball. Regarding the Rule 5 draft, there isn't a lot of activity with only a dozen or so players selected each year...Alex Romero isn't available since he was added to the roster, hopefully, none of the other guys will get selected this year.

I also like Beau Kemp, 25, who is now an older prospect who has been a solid reliever for the past several seasons since dominating the Florida State League in 2002 with a 0.40 era and 29 saves. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets a chance at some time over the next couple years, kind of like Eyre this year.

by roger on Nov 28, 2005 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baker

I think he'll average somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5 K/9.

by Sulla on Nov 29, 2005 4:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"But Gardy hates rookies..."

Actually, I think Gardy just likes "his guys." Punto was gritty, etc., so he gets lots of chances, because Gardy likes the way he plays.

Bartlett is a more offensive-minded SS than Gardy was when he played, so Gardy doesn't like him as much. And so on.

He played Mauer as much as he could, but Mauer didn't give him any choice.

Back when Gardy first came up, he didn't have much trouble playing the younger guys, but then again, he knew them from when they were going through the system, so they were his guys, too.

The man's got favorites, what can we do? (Well, argue for his dismissal, I suppose.)

by ubelmann on Nov 28, 2005 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Gardenhire has never backed off rookies. I'd say he's willing to toss them in there a tad too eagerly, if anything. Gardy's hardly an Earl Weaver.

-- People can't stand much reality, and they can't even stand the reality of being told so.

by Firpo Marberry on Nov 28, 2005 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

I think this man's career is in serious jeopardy. I would be surprised if he can contribute in spring training and go north with the team in April. If he didn't take a swing in a Twins' uniform in '06, I would not be surprised.

-- People can't stand much reality, and they can't even stand the reality of being told so.

by Firpo Marberry on Nov 28, 2005 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

The only place we have seen comments about Kubel not being ready for spring training were in Sid's column. Terry Ryan has consistently stated that he would be ready for spring training, most recently on KFAN last week. Kubel himself has stated when asked about being the DH, that it was his goal to be the starting right fielder out of spring training. He is taking a break this week as he is getting married this coming weekend.

Reading about Culpepper's injury in the paper a few weeks back, Doc Clancy was talking about limitations a year out...but should be 100% in 18 months. So it makes sense that they were cautious in the Instructional League as he was only 10 months from surgery. Kubel will be 15 months from surgery when spring training begins and by June 1st he should be 100%, assuming you are not correct and he will have permanent damage.

by roger on Nov 29, 2005 7:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Crap

If I'd know those were Sid's thoughts, I would not have made that post. It's probably difficult to know less about baseball than Sid and still have Bud Zee-league and Steinbrenner as his pals.

-- People can't stand much reality, and they can't even stand the reality of being told so.

by Firpo Marberry on Nov 29, 2005 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boof!

Frankly, I think Boof makes for good trade bait myself. He has the arm, and is working on the control...and tell me the kiddies wouldn't be flocking to the major league debut of "BOOF BONSER, MALE PROSTITUTE."

by mbennett on Nov 29, 2005 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rookies in '06

Frankly Roger, I think you're being a tad optimistic. I would agree that at the bottom of the staff,i.e., mopup innings, a Willie Eyre or Bowyer could contribute. But there's no lefty reliever on the horizon that could take JC's place, assuming he's traded, unless we keep Lohse and give Liriano a year in the pen

The starting staff looks more promising with Baker in the #4 or 5 role and barring any surprises(like resigning Mays), Liriano could also contribute if Lohse is traded.

But it's offensive help we need and there sure are a paucity of prospects! Kubel has the best longterm potential, but realistically his contribution next year is highly problematic. The prospective 2B you mentioned, Rodriguez and Maza, are also real long shots to help our offense. Maza was actually left off the 40 man roster - again. Garret Jones had a decent year but he hardly looks like the type of strong DH we need. He didn't even make BA's list of top 20 prospects in the AFL this year(nor did Moses or Span). And as for Bartlett, even though he's not a rookie, we should consider him in this category. And based on what he did in the bigs last year I really can't get too excited about his offensive prowess, either. Sure he had his moments, but overall he was mediocre and probably has no more than a 50:50 chance to actually make a positive offensive contribution. After all, this organization seems to pile up the AAAA players.

But none of this should surprise anyone. After all, our drafts have focused so heavily on pitching at the expense of offense that its no wonder there's little help available from the minors. This is why Gardy is screaming for veteran hitters, after seeing so many of our prospects fail once promoted. And for once, I have to agree with Gardy!

by mike on Nov 29, 2005 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Focus on pitching recent

Four of the last five Twins first draft choices are hitters (Mauer, Span, Moses, Plouff). Since '93, the Twins have drafted three pitchers first overall. They have used extra picks on pitchers (e.g. Glenn Perkins), but they have also used extra picks on hittes (e.g. Henry Sanchez).

The reason for the paucity of hitters is not that the Twins have not developed them, it's that they have lost them faster than they've replaced them.

Joe Mauer fan since 1998, when I lived next to Cretin's ballfield.

by cmathewson on Nov 29, 2005 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs