2006 Minor League Starting Rotations

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 12, 2005 8:40 PM EST

With the winter meetings and Rule 5 draft behind us, it may be a good time to take a look at next year's starting rotations at each full season team. I have listed six candidates for the 5 spots on each team. If a player has been promoted, his 2005 team will be listed. I also have shown their age as of July 1, 2006 and ranking based on their 2005 performance per my formula.

Obviously there will be a few surprises, trades or injuries, however, this should be a good early look at the most likely candidates to fill out each staff next spring. All lefties are indicated with a (L).

Rochester Red Wings (AAA)

Boof Bonser - 24/#16
J.D. Durbin - 24/#33
David Gassner(L) - 27/#43
Henry Bonilla - 27/#54
Levalle Speigner - 25/#30 (New Britain)
Jim Abbott - 26/#52 (New Britain)

New Britain Rock Cats (AA)

Errol Simonitsch(L) - 23/#14
Glen Perkins(L) - 23/#13
Nick Blackburn - 24/#6
Adam Harben - 22/#7 (Ft.Myers)
Justin Jones(L) - 21/#27 (Ft. Myers)
Colby Miller - 24/#37 (DL)

Ft. Myers (Hi-A)

Anthony Swarzak - 20/#9
Jay Rainville - 20/#11
Kyle Waldrop - 20/#28 (Beloit)
Kevin Slowey - 22/#2 (Beloit)
Matt Garza - 22/#22 (Beloit)
Kyle Aselton(L) - 23/#25 (Beloit)

Beloit (Low-A)

Eduardo Morlan - 20/#24
Adam Hawes - 23/#8 (Elizabethton)
Brian Duensing(L) - 23/#23 (Elizabethton)
Ryan Mullins(L) - 22/#10 (Elizabethton)
Yohan Pino - 22/#31 (Elizabethton)
Kyle Edlich(L) - 20/#29 (GCL Twins)

Looking at the ages of these pitchers and their past success, especially at New Britain and Ft. Myers, it is not unrealistic to expect several of these pitchers to become solid #1-#2 top of the rotation type starters.

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Mijares

Good work. The only one missing is Mijares. So you expect him to pitch out of the bullpen? If so, where?

Joe Mauer fan since 1998, when I lived next to Cretin's ballfield.

by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2005 9:59 PM EST reply actions

Mijares

Jose Mijares, who was 20, began the season at Beloit. He was used mostly in relief with 6 starts, appearing in 54.1ip with a 1.528WHIP. Opponents batting average was a low .219, however, walks (78K/40BB) led to a 4.31era.

Mijares, who has excellent stuff, was promoted to Ft. Myers where he pitched in 5 games with 1 start (12.0ip/0.833WHIP). At Ft. Myers he was nearly unhittable with a 1.50era and opposing batting average of .116. Although a small sample, his walk ratio was reduced to 3.75BB/9ip from 6.62BB/9ip at Beloit while his strikeout rate continued amongst the best in the system at 12.92K/9ip at Beloit and 12.75K/9ip at Ft. Myers.

Ah! 20 years old, left handed, great stuff with over 12 strikeouts per 9 innings and nearly unhittable...best get this kid on the 40-man roster.

Where does he begin 2006 at and will he be a starter? The Twins are normally patient with young pitchers and it is likely he will begin at Ft. Myers then move up to New Britain during the season. Looking at the many pitchers available to start at both teams, I would expect to see him begin in the bullpen and perhaps move into a starting role if either team has injuries or a few starters not pitch up to expectations. However, with his stuff, a great spring training could get him a starting role out of camp...in which case although unlikely, a year like Liriano had last season is not impossible!

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 13, 2005 8:23 AM EST up reply actions

Justin Jones

How was Justin Jones last year stat and healthwise?

by TheMattWilke on Dec 12, 2005 10:33 PM EST reply actions

The Twins only J. Jones

Jones wasn't healthy and struggled in a few innings at Quad Cities following the Mientkiewicz trade in 2004. The Twins kept him in extended spring training this past spring, working with him and making certain he was healthy. When Perkins, Simonitsch and Blackburn were moved up to New Britain, Jones joined Ft. Myers and was inserted into the starting rotation.

He appeared in 13 games for the Miracle, all starts. In 77.2 innings, he had a record of 7-3 with 2 complete games, 54K/28BB, 1.365WHIP and a 3.01era. His strikeout ratio wasn't spectacular, however, the big leftie improved throughout the season and was arguably the Miracle's best starting pitcher at the end of the year. I look for him to begin 2006 as the youngest member of New Britain's excellent starting rotation.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 13, 2005 8:41 AM EST up reply actions

some guys to get excited about

some of these prospects look really good.

Glen Perkins and Matt Garza stand out as definite big club caliber guys.

by brandonp on Dec 13, 2005 2:56 PM EST reply actions

Whither Smit?

So is Alexander Smit going full-time to relief? Probably logical, given his build and his performances last year.

by spycake on Dec 13, 2005 8:00 PM EST reply actions

Smit

Smit reclaimed his status as a top prospect at Elizabethton, 86K/12BB/1.97era and a .157 opponent average in 45.2ip, then proceded to pitch well for the Dutch team in the World Cup. Where he begins next year is a good question. Does he go back to Beloit or to Ft. Myers is another question. He just turned 20 and with his ability to dominate out of the pen, my bet is he will begin in the Ft. Myers bullpen with a very good chance of moving up to New Britain during the season.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 13, 2005 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

WBC

I would assume he's in consideration for the Dutch WBC team. If he plays well there, he'll be moving up quickly. His numbers indicate he may be another in the long line of excellent 1 inning shutdown setup men to come out of the Twins system. If that's the case, I'm excited for either his potential with the big club, or his value as trade bait.

by brandonp on Dec 15, 2005 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Smit

I think it may be possible for him to return to the rotation at some point. Last year at Beloit, he had his wonderful fast ball but didn't have another pitch good enough to keep hitters from waiting on his fast ball. I know he was lights out at Elizabethton (many outings were more than an inning), then did well with the Dutch team.

I don't know if he made much headway with a second pitch. I suspect he will likely begin the season in the bullpen at either Beloit or Ft. Myers. Assuming he makes good progress with a second pitch, at his age it wouldn't surprise me to see him back in the rotation later next year or in 2007. However, looking at the number of great starters in the system...they may just keep him in the pen and work with him to become a big, dominating lefty that comes out for an inning or two in the 7th or 8th.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Dec 15, 2005 12:53 PM EST up reply actions