A Southpaw within?

by roger on Jan 1, 2006 2:24 PM EST Comment 22 comments

As the Twins prepare for 2006, a question remains..."who will be the lefty in their bullpen to replace J.C. Romero and Mulholland?"

They recently signed the marginal Dennys Reyes. But maybe, this player will come from within the organization. Let's take a look at all the lefties in the organization. Many are starters, however, we will look at all lefties as their roles tend to change. The age listed will be their age on opening day, 2006. We will begin with players closest to the major leagues (AAA) and move through the system to Rookie ball.

Francisco Liriano, 22, may be the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Although a starter, will he begin 2006 in the Twins bullpen?

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2005 Twins 6g 23.2ip 5.70era 33K/7BB
2005 Rochester 14g 91.0ip 1.78era 112K/24BB
2005 New Brit 13g 76.2ip 3.64era 92K/26BB
2004 New Brit 7g 39.2ip 3.18era 49K/17BB
2004 Ft. Myers 21g 117.0ip 4.00era 125K/43BB
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David Gassner, 27, was the extra player the Twins received with Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty, yes, Stewart + Cash + Gassner for Kielty...thank you Terry Ryan! Gassner had the most wins in the International League in 2004, then struggled with injuries in 2005...when he was called up and got two starts for the Twins.

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2005 Twins 2g 7.2ip 5.87era 2K/1BB
2005 Rochester 22g 116.1ip 4.95era 64K/33BB
2004 Rochester 28g 174.1ip 3.41era 93K/30BB
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Bud Smith, 26, was a rookie phenom for the Cardinals several years ago. He was injured, bounced around several organizations for a few years, then signed by the Twins prior to 2005. The Twins must have liked something they saw as he was recently resigned for 2006.

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2005 Rochester 3g 5.7ip 4.76era 4K/3BB
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Ricky Barrett, 25, has all it takes if he can curb his major control problem. His high strikeout rate will however, keep him in the hunt for a future bullpen spot.

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2005 AFL 11g 12.0ip 9.00era 6K/13BB
2005 Rochester 40g 63.0ip 6.71era 64K/48BB
2005 New Brit 10g 17.2ip 0.51era 25K/7BB
2004 Ft. Myers 17g 38.1ip 3.52era 41K/25BB
2004 QuadCities 12g 58.2ip 1.99era 55K/29BB
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Jason Miller, 23, is likely the top candidate for a bullpen slot who is close to being ready to help the Twins. Look for this top lefty to make his debut with the Twins in late 2006.

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2005 Rochester 13g 26.0ip 3.81era 27K/17BB
2005 New Brit 26g 49.2ip 2.72era 56K/22BB
2004 New Brit 33g 40.0ip 4.28era 42K/21BB
2004 Ft. Myers 19g 29.1ip 1.53era 40K/11BB
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John Thomas, 24, was obtained in the Dustin Mohr trade. After an excellent 2004 at Ft. Myers, Thomas spent nearly all of 2005 on the disabled list.

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2005 Rochester 1g 3.0ip 15.00era 1K/1BB
2004 Ft. Myers 34g 66.0ip 3.55era 69K/25BB
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Glen Perkins, 23, is the former Gopher and first round pick that is on a fast track to the Twins. Will he duplicate the accomplishments of Jesse Crain and Scott Baker and pitch for the Twins in 2006?

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2005 AFL 7g 32.0ip 2.53era 39K/6BB
2005 New Brit 14g 79.0ip 4.90era 67K/35BB
2005 Ft. Myers 10g 55.0ip 2.13era 66K/13BB
2004 QuadCities 9g 48.1ip 1.30era 49K/12BB
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Errol Simonitsch, 23, is another crafty lefty with excellent control who was recently added to the 40-man roster.

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2005 New Brit 14g 78.2ip 4.12era 52K/28BB
2005 Ft. Myers 14g 80.1ip 2.69era 72K/12BB
2004 QuadCities 20g 109.0ip 2.56era 107K/36BB
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Jay Sawatski, 23, was an excellent closer (13 of 15 saves) until a mid season slump that didn't end. His record since being drafted in the 8th round of the 2004 draft has been solid and he will likely continue to move up the ladder to the Twins.

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2005 Ft. Myers 43g 61.2ip 3.94era 50K/21BB
2004 QuadCities 15g 26.1ip 1.37era 29K/10BB
2004 Elizabeth 4g 7.2ip 2.35era 9K/2BB
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Justin Jones, 21, was obtained from the Cubs in the Doug Mientkiewicz trade. He was used sparingly at Quad Cities following the trade due to a tired/sore arm. The big lefty was arguably Ft. Myers' top starter the last few months of 2005.

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2005 Ft. Myers 13g 77.2ip 3.01era 54K/28BB
2004 QuadCities 7g 20.1ip 5.31era 17K/14BB
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Jose Mijares, 21, is a young lefty with a great arm. After being noticed by several scouting services, the Twins added Mijares to their 40-man roster this past December. Can Mijares use this talent and follow in the footsteps of Liriano and make a meteoric rise through the system in 2006?

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2005 Ft. Myers 5g 12.0ip 1.50era 17K/5BB
2005 Beloit 20g 54.1ip 4.31era 78K/40BB
2004 GCL Twins 19g 29.2ip 2.43era 25K/5BB
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Josh Gray, 25, spent part of 2005 on the disabled list after performing well in his second season as part of the Miracle bullpen.

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2005 Ft. Myers 32g 62.0ip 3.34era 49K/28BB
2004 Ft. Myers 33g 87.1ip 5.77era 56K/40BB
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Jan Granado, 23, was selected by the Twins in the minor league segment of the 2004 Rule 5 draft.

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2005 New Brit 12g 25.2ip 5.61era 19K/9BB
2005 Ft. Myers 25g 49.1ip 2.92era 31K/13BB
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Kyle Aselton, 23, began the season in Beloit's bullpen, however, became a star after inserted into the starting rotation late last season.

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2005 Beloit 41g 112.0ip 2.49era 113K/61BB
2004 Elizabeth 15g 37.2ip 4.54era 38K/19BB
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Kevin Culpepper, 23, was drafted in the 9th round of the 2003 draft. Culpepper has had periods when he has been an excellent reliever.

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2005 Beloit 49g 85.0ip 4.45era 74K/31BB
2004 QuadCities 34g 53.0ip 5.60era 43K/22BB
2004 Elizabeth 9g 17.0ip 5.29era 20K/7BB
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John Williams, 24, was a 7th round pick in 2004 who is another lefty who has intrigued the Twins with spurts of solid performances.

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2005 Beloit 38g 75.1ip 4.54era 66K/30BB
2004 Elizabeth 14g 38.1ip 5.40era 50K/14BB
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Ryan Gehring, 23, was originally drafted by the Twins out of high school in the 33rd round of the 2001 draft. Following college, Gehring signed as a ndfa this past winter.

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2005 Elizabeth 17g 30.0ip 3.00era 31K/16BB
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Ryan Mullins, 22, was a third round pick in 2005. The big lefty out of Vanderbilt, struck out 13 batters in 5 innings of the opening game of Elizabethton's championship series.

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2005 Elizabeth 11g 53.2ip 2.18era 60K/13BB
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Alexander Smit, 20, is a Dutch native who was signed as a 16 year old. A literal strikeout machine, Smit began the season at Beloit prior to returning to Elizabethton where he was used as a reliever.

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2005 Beloit 14g 49.2ip 5.98era 54K/28BB
2005 Elizabeth 21g 45.2ip 1.97era 86K/12BB
2004 Elizabeth 6g 28.1ip 2.54era 43K/10BB
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Brian Duensing, 23, was selected on the 3rd round of the 2005 draft and signed after playing in the College World Series for Nebraska.

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2005 Elizabeth 12g 50.1ip 2.32era 55K/16BB
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Kyle Edlich, 20, is a ndfa from Australia. Edlich had an excellent first season in the Twins system.

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2005 GCL Twins 10g 47.2ip 1.70era 53K/15BB
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Mike Rogers, 20, was a 16th round pick in the 2003 draft who spent all of 2005 on the DL.

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2004 GCL Twins 11g 47.0ip 4.02era 53K/23BB
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Jeff Schoenbachler, 20, was selected in the 5th round of the 2004 draft.

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2005 GCL Twins 9g 45.1ip 3.97era 45K/15BB
2004 GCL Twins 12g 39.0ip 3.92era 45K/16BB
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0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Very nice

Very thorough analysis (perhaps too thorough... some of these guys are still yeeeears away). If we hang on to Lohse, I would put my money on Liriano starting the season in the bullpen and being used to get out tough lefties. Perkins looked really good in the fall league. Miller and Simonitsch look like they might be ready in the near future, but I don't know if their strikeout numbers are enough to make them very good prospective ML relievers.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 1, 2006 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

unlikely

I think it is very unlikly for Liriano to start the season in the pen. Unlike Santana, he doesnt have to be in the big league roster, so i bet they leave him at AAA if he doesnt make the starting rotation.

Maybe during the season if either Lohse gets traded, there is an injury, or a starter is really slumping, i think they will play him than.

Liriano needs to contintue to get innings, something he wouldn't get as a left handed specialy reliver when our bullpen is already prettttty dang good.

by Petey on Jan 1, 2006 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

Santana's most recent stint in the bullpen had nothing to do with him needing to be on the big league roster.

In 2000, Santana was in his first year on the Twins' roster, and as a Rule 5 pick, he needed to stay on the big league roster for the Twins to keep him. After that season, though, the Twins had the option of sending Santana to the minor leagues, which they did in 2002, when he pitched 48.2 innings in AAA.

They put Santana in the bullpen largely because they didn't think he had the control to work deep into the game as a starter. The one thing that TR has talked about Liriano needing to improve is the command on his fastball. Apparently, TR has said that Liriano will be starting in either AAA or with the Twins. I wouldn't be that surprised if Liriano starts the season in AAA as a starter, and at some point in the middle of the season transitions to the bigs either to replace Baker in the 5 spot, or as a long reliever.

by ubelmann on Jan 1, 2006 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen

Why does Liriano need more innings in AAA? What does he have left to prove down there? I'd rather see him get a few innings per week against Major League hitters. I've never bought the notion that pitchers can improve by dominating bad hitters in the minors, or that they need to be throwing a ton of innings or they will forget how to pitch or something. He fills an actual need for the team by pitching relief on the Twins, it's not like they'd have him up for no reason and he would only get innings in garbage games.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 1, 2006 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

Where he begins 2006 will be based on three questions.

First, he doesn't have anything left to prove but does need better command of his fastball to become dominant in the AL. If he has it in spring...he belongs with the Twins.

Second, will the Twins have an opening on their starting rotation for him?

Third, if he is ready and they don't have a spot in the rotation...they will have a decision. Will TRyan want him getting innings every fifth day at Rochester rather than pitching a few innings a week in the Twins bullpen?

I agree however, that I expect he will show up in spring and by his performance demand a spot on the Twins pitching staff.

by roger on Jan 1, 2006 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Innings...

"...or that they need to be throwing a ton of innings or they will forget how to pitch or something."

I don't think it's a matter of metally forgetting how to pitch, but more a matter of stamina. If Liriano needs to be ready in the bullpen, then he won't have any days where he can go and pitch 85-110 pitches all-out on a particular day, plus warm-up tosses, like he would as a starter.

Even considering this, I think I'd start Liriano in the 'pen, but the Twins have been awfully good at developing young pitchers, so I'd probably defer to them on this matter.

by ubelmann on Jan 1, 2006 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Years away

As long as I was doing all the lefties, didn't have to decide where to stop...just kept doing all the lefties in the system. Most will never reach the "Show," but a few of these could be special in a few years.

by roger on Jan 1, 2006 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

This is exactly the kind of post that helps fans like me, who don't know a ton about the Twins minor-leaguers and prospects, learn more.

Thanks, roger!

by ravenfly on Jan 1, 2006 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liriano's innings

I've posted this on other threads, but it bears repeating. Liriano needs to keep his innings up because the history of pitchers who have drastic (more than 30%) increase in innings from one year to the next is not good. The year they increase innings, they're often fine. But the next year, they tend to show a significant drop off. I believe this is one reason why the Twins gradually increased Santana's innings from a low of 60 in 2000 to his career high last year.

Now, Liriano would best serve this team out of the bullpen. His slider would be especially devastating out of the pen. But the long term effects of giving him, say, just 80 innings this year and 200 next year are pretty risky. Some pitchers have done it (e.g. Silva, David Wells, Kenny Rogers) but Rob Neyer in particular has done studies suggesting that the vast majority of pitchers cannot sustain success after a huge innings increase from one year to the next.

If the Twins feel the need for an internal lefty instead of, say Willie Eyre or Pat Neshek, I would give Jason Miller the best chance of starting the year in that role. My second candidate is Mijeras, who could be like Santana in 2001. But I would favor Eyer or Neshek over any of these guys.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 2, 2006 12:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

There are two main reasons why Liriano will probobly be in AAA to start the year.

Terry Ryan has said he will NOT be in the pen. He will either be starting in teh bigs or waiting his turn, honing his skills in AAA. I strongly agree that this is the right choice, for various reasons, but largely because:
He needs a bit more time. As has been mentioned, he still needs to work a bit on his command, especially of his fastball, to be fully effective at the major league level. And boy, does it look like he will be effective. AAA is a much better place to work on this, because you aren't being pressured to perform against the highest quality of competition. YOu can work on what you need to, get in your reps pressure free, then come to the bigs and be ready for major league hitters. He needs a few more months in that environment to work. This is actually the common scouting report on him.

I strongly believe that Liriano should only be on roster if he is starting, and that only if, somehow, he has "perfected" his command, which seems unlikely just yet.

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 2, 2006 1:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

soon

I'd say Miller, Gasner, Eyre, and maybe Ricky Barrett and Bud Smith are the only ones I'd consider for the pen. Otherwise I'd use one of our right handed options or continue looking for another reliever on the open market.

On a seperate note, I think Boof is the next Rincon.

by doofus04 on Jan 2, 2006 3:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eyre

It appears you included Willie Eyre amongst your left handed candidates. He is having a wonderful winter in Venezuela, but he is not lefthanded.

by roger on Jan 2, 2006 8:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eyre

Oops!

by doofus04 on Jan 3, 2006 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gassner for the pen

This guy has great control. It doesn't look like he'll get another shot at the rotation any time soon. His solid but underwhelming stats probably won't get us much in the trading bin. I'd hope for Gassner to get a shot from the pen and then up his trade value either mid-season or for 2007. Meanwhile lets see Liriano in AAA until that fastball's tuned up, hope that Lohse has a great first half so we can trade him midseason, and see Scott Baker make a run at Rookie of the Year (he's still eligible, isn't he?)

Roger, great analysis. Maybe sometime later you can do one about what kind of pitchers the minor leaguers are. ie: control pitcher, mid-90s fastball/hard slider, curveball pitcher, etc.

by TheMattWilke on Jan 2, 2006 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gassner has no gas

Perhaps he could take Guerrier's role as long man with Matt moving into more of a middle role (Mullholan's role). But I don't know how big of an advantage it is that Dave is lefthanded. He's a change-up pitcher with a marginal breaking ball, so he's actaully better against right handers. I'd rather have Eyre in the middle role and Guerrier in the long role because Eyre has that good breaking ball, which is his out pitch against tough hitters. But Dave will get a chance to win that spot in the spring.

Just to be clear, we're talking about Mulholland's job. Here is how I would rank the candidates, giving preference to guys on the 40-man roster:

Eyre
Bonsor
Durbin
Gassner
Neshek
Mijares
-----------not on the 40 man below this line
Miller
Kemp
Smith
Barrett

Here are guys the Twins want to develop exclusively as starters:

Liriano
Simonitch
Jones
-------------
Perkins

There is also a chance that two spots are open if Eat at Denny's Reyes has a poor spring. If so one of them will likely be left handed.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 2, 2006 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Reyes

I know he wasn't one of our favorites in the past, but do I detect a hint of sarcasm?

by roger on Jan 2, 2006 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eat at Dennys

That's actually Bat Girl's nickname for him. She tends to favor eating metaphors in her nicknames: e.g. Capt. Cheesburger.

If anyone can turn him around, Andy can. I think he's about where JC was when he left, for about $1.75 million less and $2.25 million less in guaranteed money. Plus, TR got Cassilla, so I favor TR's moves here in general. But it's by no means certain that Dennys makes the team. He is a nonroster invitee who must show improved control to beat out other candidates.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 2, 2006 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Casilla

I am doing some research and charting how Casilla would have been ranked in the system if he had played for Beloit. Will be posting a short piece about that on Seths site later this winter. He may be a much better prospect than most people give him credit for.

by roger on Jan 2, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Casilla's ranking

I look forward to your numerical analysis, but, off the top of my head, he's the Twin's best middle infield prospect below AA. I project him to eventually replace Castillo as the Twins second baseman. Very similar players. At the plate, he's a lot like Span. But his baserunning is better. It'll be interesting to se where he starts next year. I project Fort Myers, but it's not out of the question that he could end up as New Britain's second baseman with JR Taylor at short, if he beats out Luke Hughes.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 2, 2006 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best prospect

It is difficult to compare Casilla with players like Thompson and Kelly who are each two years younger. Also, Plouffe did well in low A at 19. Then there is Portes, who has such an exciting future...although it may not be in the middle infield. Should get a better idea of which will be best after another year at higher levels.

If Casilla were to replace Castillo (those names really are to similar) in 2008, he would need to play at least half of next year at AA. Will be interesting to see if he starts at Ft. Myers or has a good spring and is New Britain's second baseman. Assuming Span starts the season at New Britain...could be exciting team with Span/Casilla hitting 1-2 or 2-1!

by roger on Jan 2, 2006 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs