The surprises of spring!

by roger on Jan 23, 2006 11:41 AM EST Comment 37 comments

Francisco Liriano will have an excellent spring, showing improved command of his fast ball. Although he clearly belongs on the major league roster, it will not be a huge surprise when he is one of the last two cuts and begins the season at Rochester as Scott Baker also has an excellent spring winning the #5 starting spot.

TRyan's conservative approach to this year's starting rotation is proven correct as one of the most successful and likeable Twins for the past decade, Brad Radke, goes on the DL in mid May...returns for a few starts in June, then goes back on the DL for the remainder of the season in late June. Liriano fills Radke's spot in the rotation winning 9 games (vs. 5 losses) while proving that all the optimistic projections of his future are correct. Radke remains with the Twins for all home games during the second half of the season and the playoffs, however, in late August announces his retirement from the game, effective following the season.

Jason Kubel is running with about 95-96% of his previous speed and proves many naysayers wrong as he wins the opening day starting right field spot, hitting 5th in the order between White and Hunter by May after hitting 7th the first month.

The three veteran's signed to battle for the LOOGY spot do not win that bullpen spot. Reyes and May are released, however, White accepts an assignment to Rochester. Jose Mijares shows everyone that his potential is real and pitches as well in spring as Liriano did in early 2005 when he was promoted to Rochester...surprising everyone and winning the lefty spot in the bullpen giving the Twins a reliever who by mid-season is pitching as well as JC Romero did, at his best. Although not a surprise, Willie Eyre wins the last spot in the bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Crain, Guerrier and Mijares.

Alex Romero has an excellent spring and joins Liriano as one of the two last cuts when he is sent to Rochester. Jason Pridie puts his injury behind him and proves that he does have a future in the major leagues. The Twins are unable to work a reasonable deal with the Devil Rays and decide to keep Pridie on the roster for the entire season.

Although Luis Rodriguez is sent down to Rochester, he has an excellent spring confirming that he is a capable utility infielder. The Twins need to create a spot on their 25-man roster for Pridie. Feeling confident with Rodriguez should Castro be injured and having Cuddyer as a bench player for first, second and third, they trade Nick Punto for a prospect, creating a spot for Pridie. Their bench out of spring training consists of Redmond, Castro, Cuddyer, Ford, Pridie and White as their DH.

The biggest surprise of any minor league players is Alexander Smit who begins the season at Ft. Myers as their top set-up guy in the bullpen, moving to New Britain at mid-season.

What surprises do you think we will see this spring?

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My surprises

Good call on Mijeras. He has that kind of talent. If his command is there, he's a better option than Rowland-Smith was last year. Word is, the Twins very nearly kept Rowland-Smith, but decided to go with Mulholland because of his veratility. Without Mulholland or Romero in the way, Mijeras has a real shot.

If Kubel is your everyday right fielder (which I also project) Lew Ford becomes the fourth outfielder. So there's less need for Pridie on the roster. As he's the ninth best outfielder in Fort Myers (behind Rabe, Deeds, Romero, and Span), I predict he gets returned to Tampa.

My surprise of the spring is Glenn Williams, who picks up where he left off in 2005 after leading Australia to a couple of upsets in the WBC, and forces the staff to trade Nick Punto for a prospect in the spring to make room for him on the roster. As Batista struggles, Williams gets more and more playing time. As the summer goes along, Batista becomes more of a pinch hitter and Williams takes over as the everyday third baseman due to his situational hitting ability down in the order.

Another surprise is Willie Eyre, who does not allow a run in the spring and makes a run at the fifth starter spot before taking over as the long man, with Matt Guerrier moving into more of a middle relief role.

But Kubel is the best surprise of spring, showing improved power, which, combined with his better on base skills, propels him into the fifth spot in the order by mid May and to the ROY for the year.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Williams

I wish I could share your optimism about Glenn Williams. I too liked his approach at the plate when I saw him last year, but there's just no way I can make myself believe that that performance was not a fluke and that he will be able to hit that way for an entire season. The guy is almost 30, and up until last year, he has never hit above .274 or posted and OBP above .326 at any level in the minor leagues. It's almost surprising that he ever made it to the Triple-A level in the first place. Also, he really did not look good defensively from what I saw of him.

Even if he has a solid spring, I don't see how there could be room for Batista, Cuddyer, and Williams on the roster. Carrying Cuddy and Williams would be redundant, and losing Punto would take away the team's best bunter, our only real pinch-runner type on the bench, and a guy who can play almost any position on the field.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 23, 2006 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

An imposter Punto?

"...and losing Punto would take away the team's best bunter..."

You were not watching the same Nick Punto that I was last year. When asked to bunt, he failed to successfully get a bunt down more times than I care to remember. And if we can do anything to stop Gardy from bunting so much, I'm for it.

"...and a guy who can play almost any position on the field."

If by "play" you mean run around in the field with a glove on, then yeah, Punto can play almost any position on the field. He's not a good outfielder by any means, though. He has a poor first step and he runs poor routes to flyballs. The Twins already have 2 true CF (Hunter, Ford) and the Twins already have a better corner outfielder than Punto on the bench (Cuddyer, assuming Ford wins RF out of Spring Training, or Ford if Cuddyer wins RF.) Punto's "ability" to play the outfield just tempts Gardy into putting him out there, which is a bad idea in almost every circumstance, because Punto isn't good defensively as an outfielder, and he's certainly not a good enough hitter to justify playing in the outfield.

by ubelmann on Jan 23, 2006 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yikes

I don't understand why everyone is so willing to forget how well Nick Punto was playing before he got injured in June last year and instead focus totally on his admittedly terrible play when he returned; yet so quick to disregard Cuddyer's despicable months of April and August. Yes, after returning from his DL stint in July last year, Punto was absolutely wretched. But up until he got hurt in June he was playing very well. He was hitting nearly .300, he was getting on base at a very solid clip, he was running the bases well and playing the field well.

I'm not saying Punto is a great player who should be starting, but I think he is a more valuable bench player than Cuddyer, Castro, or Williams. This year will be a good final audition for him. He's only got 588 ML at-bats in his career so far. Let's give him another chance before we write him off.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 23, 2006 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Punto vs. Cuddyer? Really?

First off, I didn't bring up Cuddyer here, and I'm not really sure why you did. Cuddyer is a 4th OFer who can stand in at 2B and 3B, and plays a pretty decent 1B (and as I see it now, it's Cuddyer and Batista as the backup 1B right now, and Batista's slated to be the everyday 3B). Punto plays a pretty decent middle infield, an acceptable 3B, and is a disaster in the outfield. As far as the bench goes, you need someone in each role, so I don't see the point in saying one is more valuable off the bench than the other.

Second, since you bring up Punto vs. Cuddyer, you really must be kidding. Offensively, it's not even close, and that's the only way you can really directly compare them, since as I mentioned, they are really best used in totally different defensive positions. Much as I don't really like OPS, it's the best thing I have splits for, so let's look at OPS by month for last year when Punto and Cuddyer had more than 50 ABs (and really, even 50 or 60 ABs is a detestably small sample size anyway).

Cuddy, Sept, .921
Cuddy, May, .802
Cuddy, June, .777
Punto, May, .747
Cuddy, Aug, .679
Punto, Sept, .649
Punto, Aug, .572
Cuddy, April, .563
Punto, July, .549

Cuddyer had not one, not two, but three months better than Punto's best month. That might be one reason to think Punto's good month was a fluke and Cuddyer's poor month was a fluke. Even Cuddyer's worst month was better than Punto's worst month. (To make matters worse, Punto managed to get 100 ABs in July and 104 ABs in August. Want to improve the offense next year? Keep Punto as far away from a bat as possible.)

But I really don't like looking at samples even as small as a month. Let's look at seasons. Cuddyer has put up between a .253 and .257 EQA for the last four seasons. That's a tad below average, but Punto has never put up anything better than a .242 EQA, and that was in a mere 91 ABs. Putting all of them together, Cuddyer's career EQA is .255 and Punto's career EQA is .222. Of players who made more than 250 outs last season, only Tony Womack and Omar Infante had worse EQAs than Nick Punto.

Is the problem that we haven't given Punto enough time? No. In his minor league career, he did little to distinguish himself. In 2183 minor league ABs, Punto had a line of about .265/.356/.339. Yeah, he showed some patience, but almost everyone who has a higher SLG than OBP in the minors loses a lot of that edge in OBP because major league pitchers are willing and have the ability to throw strikes if they know they aren't going to get hurt with an extra-base hit. Punto's actually maintained a pretty reasonably walk rate, but it still only puts him at a career .301 OBP, a whole 3 points higher than Batista's .298 career OBP that's got a lot of people all bent out of shape. The difference is that OBP is Punto's strongest category, while it is Batista's weakest. And going back to the comparison with Cuddyer, Cuddyer hit .290/.368/.485 in 2492 minor league ABs.

So basically, there are lots and lots and lots of reasons to believe Cuddyer is and will continue to be a much better hitter than Punto. Of course, like I said, they fill different roles, so I don't really know why I put so much time into the comparison anyway.

by ubelmann on Jan 24, 2006 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Missing the point

Well, if you would go back and read, you would realize that I brought Cuddyer into the conversation as a response to the initial post that I was responding to by cmath in which he "predicted" (I don't want to pin him down on it or anything, because I don't think it was all that serious of a prediction) that the Twins would choose to keep Glenn Williams on the roster and trade Nick Punto. Apparently, this would mean having both Cuddyer and Williams on the roster, which as I said would be redundant. While they hit from different sides of the plate, they have similar skill sets and play about the same positions. In replacing Punto with one of them, you lose a lot of speed and a guy who can effectively play middle infield and center field. I can't imagine the Twins would waste a Major League roster spot on Pridie considering he hasn't done a thing above Single-A.

At no point did I say Punto is a better hitter than Cuddyer, I was just noting how people go so much easier on Cruddy. But I do think Punto is potentially a more valuable bench player. Cuddyer has proven in his career that it takes him a full month's worth of regular at-bats to get going, which really doesn't work when you're the fourth (or fifth) outfielder and a backup infielder.

It is entirely possible that the Nick Punto we saw in July-September last year is the real one, and if that's the case he doesn't belong in a Major League uniform. But he struggled after returning from a tough injury that probably nagged him, and it was his first ML season getting more than 92 at-bats. I'm not ready to dismiss the possibility that this guy can be a solid contributor.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 24, 2006 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So let me get this straight...

Cuddyer had a better season than Punto, but we're being too easy on Cuddyer and too hard on Punto? I'm sorry, that doesn't really make much sense to me, even in light of Punto's injury. (Actually, Punto's knack for finding his way to the DL is also a strike against him.)

For that matter, I don't see that many people giving Cuddyer a free ride or being hard on Punto. If anything, I feel like I'm constantly commenting to correct those in the "Cruddyer" crowd who take way too much stock in a month here and a month there of Cuddyer's playing time. Cuddyer's no great shakes, but he was far from the goat he was made out to be for much of last season. And Punto seems to have fans everywhere who think he can be something more than Denny Hocking, but he's not going to amount to anything more than Hocking ever was. (Which, to be clear, was a really poor hitting, mediocre fielding utility player. Though Hocking made a heck of a union rep in his spare time, too.)

As far as Cuddyer "proving" that he's needed a month or two to get going, he's been used in several roles, being switched from OF to "super utility" to 3B, and I can't really say he's had regular playing time for more than a month maybe twice in his career. Yet, the last four seasons, his EQAs have been very consistent in the .252-.257 range. Saying that he needs a bunch of at-bats to get going is yet another conclusion drawn from the gallery of small sample size. If anything, I'll admit he's had poor Aprils, but I don't buy that he won't be able to hit at his established .255 EQA level as a pinch hitter/part-time player.

Choosing Punto's best 140 or so ABs and thinking he'll produce at that level is the same sort of logic that brought you the "disappointment" that was Justin Morneau in 2005.

by ubelmann on Jan 24, 2006 2:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever

Your double-standards truly amaze me. Poor Cuddy hasn't had enough chances to prove himself, because he's only gotten regular playing time for more than a month twice in his career. Never mind that Cuddyer has had 4 straight seasons of 100+ at-bats while last year's was Punto's first. Last year was Punto's first real chance to prove himself, and he was doing that until he got hurt. I think he could rebound this year and have a solid season and prove to be a very useful bench player. I really can't use numbers to argue this case because admittedly his overall numbers last year were very bad. I do think he has the necessary skills to play an important role on this team though. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 24, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I did not say that

"Poor Cuddy hasn't had enough chances to prove himself, because he's only gotten regular playing time for more than a month twice in his career."

I was speaking solely to the point on whether or not Cuddyer could produce as a bench player. You seem to think that he would do worse than his overall numbers, while I think he would match his overall numbers. This is NOT a double-standard on my part. Cuddyer's had plenty of plate appearances for us to judge him as a hitter, and so far he's been a slightly below league average hitter. You just want to choose a subset of those appearances and say that he will be worse than his overall numbers as a bench player. I disagreed because I think that subset of appearances when Cuddyer has been a regular is too small to draw conclusions about him being a better regular than a part-timer. The point being, it's tough to say that he can't produce at his overall numbers as a part-time player when that's what he's been most of the time. And if he produces at his overall numbers, he's way, way more valuable than Punto.

"Last year was Punto's first real chance to prove himself, and he was doing that until he got hurt."

This is bad reasoning with regards to inexperienced players. Punto had plenty of time, many years in fact, to distinguish himself as a ballplayer in the minor leagues. He didn't. Now he should be able to seamlessly fit into the role he carved himself into as a minor leaguer--utility infielder who gets as few ABs as possible.

by ubelmann on Jan 24, 2006 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was hoping...

...you would take on these comments. Nick Punto is one of the worst bunters I've ever seen. He failed at it more often than he succeded. I gave up counting, but at one time he was 6 for 18 on sacrifice bunts. By that I mean he would get two strikes on him and they would either take the bunt off or he would foul off the next one for strike three. Often he would show bunt, pull the bat back at the last second, and take a strike. He got a couple of guys thrown out on sacrifices doing that. More often than not, he'd foul bunts off until he had two strikes and they'd take the bunt off. For a little guy with speed who hits lefthanded, you'd think he could at least bunt. But bunting is one of his worst "skills."

And I can't agree more on his outfield defense. In the infamous game + in which Gardy benched Lew, Punto missjudged four balls that any of the outfielders on the roster would have had in their hip pockets, including Stewart. (It amused me to no end that Lew got benched for doing a better job on a bunt than Punto had done all year.) Fortuantely, Gardy didn't use him in the outfield again. He's really only played out there a half dozen times and every time has been a disaster. He can play second and short and that's about it. I'd rather have Castro than Punto at any of the positions that Punto can play.

If you want his speed off the bench, I'd rather trade him to make room for Pridie cause at least Pridie has a chance to be a player some day. Punto clearly does not. He can't even make contact on bunts let alone swings. His best bet is to coax a walk, but pitchers figure that out pretty fast and pump three fastballs in there. He struck out looking at least 50 times last year. And his play in the infield was no great shakes. I was suprised they even tendered him a contract.

And I'm not that high on Pridie, considering all the left handed hitting outfielders in the high minors. Williams would be better for te 25th spot as a lefthanded bat off the bench who can actually hit and push Batista a little. Note that if Kubel wins the right field job, the bench is all right handed except for Punto. Having a left handed bat on the bench who can actually make contact would be more valuable than a guy who claims to have defensive versatility.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2006 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

again...

From the STATS, Inc. scouting report on Punto:

"Punto displayed excellent speed and aggressiveness, the ability to handle the bat and bunt, and a knack for putting the ball in play-all qualities the Twins, a team willing to play small ball, value. He has good range in the field and a strong throwing arm..."

Granted, not the most reliable source, but I think you're going a little overboard to say he's the worst bunter you've ever seen. July and beyond last year, he struggled with bunting, just like everything else in his game. But in the first couple months of the season, I recall being very impressed with his ability to move guys over on bunts routinely as well as frequently reach base on bunt singles.

I never said Punto was a good outfielder, but he can play out there in a pinch, and since Stewart, Hunter, and Kubel all have had serious injuries in the past couple years, it might be valuable to have emergency options. There's no way I'll believe Juan Castro, Glenn Williams or Luis Rodriguez would make a better OF than him. Punto is a solid middle-infielder and not a bad third-baseman.

Williams would be better for te 25th spot as a lefthanded bat off the bench who can actually hit and push Batista a little.

So wait, you can claim that Williams "can actually hit" based on 13 games of Major League play while ignoring 10 years of minor league mediocrity, and yet you write off Punto as a horrible player and selectively disregard the solid two months he had last year before he got hurt? Oh, sounds fair.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 24, 2006 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What plague are you planning for?

"...and since Stewart, Hunter, and Kubel all have had serious injuries in the past couple years, it might be valuable to have emergency options."

Almost no matter what happens out of spring training, Cuddyer and Ford are on the roster. Even if two of the three of Stewart, Hunter, and Kubel all go down with injuries, we still don't need an emergency outfielder. Now, it's no guarantee that Kubel will make the roster. If he doesn't, then Pridie likely makes the roster, and the Twins likely start off with a Stewart/Hunter/Ford outfield. Then, in the extreme case that both Stewart and Hunter go down in the same game, Pridie and Cuddyer would be available to move to the outfield.

And, let us not forget that Rondell White will still have an outfielder's glove in his locker. While he'll get 99% or so of his ABs as DH, he still makes a better emergency outfielder than Nick Punto.

Basically, three or four people, all outfielders, would have to get injured in the same game for Punto to be playing in the outfielder. Punto's "ability" to play outfield is totally irrelevant in judging his value to the 2006 Twins.

by ubelmann on Jan 24, 2006 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not just 14 games

Williama has not consistently distingished himself in the minors but his overall minor league numbers are much better than Punto's. The last two years (counting 2005), he's put up good numbers in AAA. And he certainly has extrabase power, which you will admit Punto does not have. If you look at the two minor leage careers, you see one similarity: They both have had injuries derail seasons. When healthy, Williams has much better numbers. And I think he's a late bloomer who suffered early from the high expectations of the most celebrated Australian prospect ever. Given a choice of pinch hitting Williams or Punto for, say, Bartlett, I would take Williams. You still have Castro to come in and play short in this instance. Most importantly, you have someone who can push Batiasta. As for redundancy with Cuddyer, the Twins don't want him to play muh third. He can be spot starter, but to really push Batista, you need someone who can play a few games in a row. The Twins have made it clear that they don't want to do that.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2006 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

most celebrated Australian ever

I found your comments interesting so I tried doing some research. Could not find much. Signed at age 16 by the Braves. Looking at stats did appear to have a breakout year in 2004 and made the International League allstar team. We all know about 2005.

I could not find much regarding scouting analysis, etc. Curious where you found "most celebrated Australian ever"

by RJTWIN on Jan 24, 2006 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Largest signing bonus

He signed with the Braves for high first round money in '96. No other Australian has received such a signing bonus. This was big news over in Australia. And he's still a big deal over there, which is why he's a lock to make the WBC team.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2006 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No reason to think Williams is capable

Is there? The guy got a chance, hit well for a while (either random variation or no book on him) and then was overmatched (yes, he set a record for bloop singles at that point). I saw nothing last year to make me think he's going to be anything other than a AAAA at best.

Sometime your low self-esteem is just good common sense.

by statman on Jan 24, 2006 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No reason?

I won't repeat my reasons, but they are reasons with more than minimal valididty. As for discounting his hits as bloops, I can counter that with his quality at bats. By my measure (five or more pitches seen) he averaged three quality at bats per game in those 14 games. That easily led the team. If he was rewarded with bloop hits for fouling off tough pitches with two strikes, I don't think you should discount the at bat as lucky.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He did have a strange collection

Williams did have a strange collection of hits with the Twins last year. 17 total hits, all singles, nothing to the right of second base, 2 infield singles and a handful of flares. It was the damndest way to hit .400.

Saying that if you didnt know how old Williams was and you looked at his AAA numbers over the last two years you'd say he was a hell of a prospect.

He has a strange development curve that I sure dont feel comfortable saying will translate into big league success. He never topped .800 OPS at any level until his 3rd full year in AAA. He does it 2 consecutive years and then hits .400 in a cup of coffee before he has a season ending injury. Wierd curve.

It might be that kids who dont grow up with baseball, like U.S., Japanese, and Latin American kids have a longer development cycle and a shorter prime. I have no idea. Glenn Williams is an oddity though.

by BHtwins on Jan 24, 2006 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Impact of the WBC

Spring training will be much different this year because of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) involving eight players from the 25 man roster plus Lariano playing for their national teams. There is a risk that the players will try too much too early and experience an injury.

We have some high powered pitching talent with Santana, Silva, Rincon, Crain and Lariano involved. What would our season be like if Santana or Silva went down because of an injury?

by TwinsKid on Jan 23, 2006 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injuries not that much of a concern

Pitchers will be on pitch counts as dictated by their MLB teams. They'll be doing the same things they would do in spring traiing games, just on a different stage. Their chances of getting injured are about the same as they would be in spring training.

The real issue is lack of playing time. Let's say Silva doesn't make the starting staff for Venezuela and ends up in the bullpen. if so, the Twins will need to stretch him out gradually once he joins the team and he could be pitching no more than five innings per game in April. That means the long man will get more work in the early goings and the other guys on the staff better throw quality starts to keep the bullpen from getting overworked.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2006 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hunter traded mid-season

Torii Hunter, whose discontent has grown in recent years due to the free-agency departures of many of his close friends, has a miserable first half. With career lows in OBP and BA, his previously stellar defense slips noticeably. With the departure in the offseason of his best friend, Jacque Jones, Hunter no longer feels a connection to either the team or the community.

Embittered by having lost his role as team leader, Hunter clashes with Morneau all season long. Beginning in spring training, and continuing on into the summer, he takes pot shots at Justin whenever possible. Willing lackies in the media dutifully echo his remarks. Gardenhire does nothing to defuse the festering problem.

Joe Mauer is selected to the AL All Star team, at which point Torii can no longer disguise his resentment of the budding star. Hunter finally oversteps his bounds with a series of vicious jabs via the media and one ugly clubhouse scene. Hunter is traded in the early part of July for 40 cents on the dollar, yielding two middling prospects who never reach the major leagues.

Just as Vince Carter did upon his departure from the Raptors, Hunter immediately resurrects his career. Hebecomes for his new team everything Twins fans, and Terry Ryan, had hoped he would have been for the Twins. His sterling defense returns, and his newfound patience allows him to work the count into favorable positions, making him a potent two-way force. His new team cruises into the playoffs on the strength of Torii's second-half performance.

Hunter rips Terry Ryan and the Minnesota community, subtly implying that racism was the major factor in his having been "run out of town" to make room for "the golden boys", who happen to be white.

Hunter retains his animosity for the Twins through the rest of his career. He plays some of his best games ever against Minnesota, fueled by resentment and anger, and finishes his career with 5 solid seasons for his second and only other team.

I hope I'm wrong on this one. But I saw the signs of this starting last year, and I think it's going to be worse this year. Especially if the Twins struggle along at .500 in third place, Torii will become insufferable in his attempt to force a trade. Losing Jones (a good move in my opinion) was the last straw for Torii.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong about this. Torii was one of my favorite players until last year, when he showed what I believe to be his true colors. Like the maanger, he failed to distinguish himself during adversity.

by SDfan on Jan 23, 2006 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Man you're bitter

He didn't handle himself all that well last year. He's publically stated that he intends to build bridges with his teammates. I take him at his word. You paint him as some sort of psychopath. He was going through a lot, including the death of his father, the first significant injury of his career and a feeling that it wasn't his team anymore. He reacted poorly to these things. But deep down he's a good guy who's made peace with it and is prepared even to restructure his contract to come back.

Besides, even when he was not getting along with some of his teammates, it didn't affect his play. I'm just shocked at how many people have painted him as some sort of TO lunatic that sulks around and doesn't play hard. I'd say it's reading too much LEN3 and not watching enough games.

Or perhaps its just racism. If a black guy calls out another black guy on the same team, it's OK. But when a black guy picks on a white guy, look out. I don't know. I'm not inclined to acuse people of racism, but I still can't believe how negative people are with Hunter considering all he's done for this team. Given the venom spewed at the only guy voted onto the All-Star game since Kirby Puckett, racism is starting to make more sense.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Torii

I don't think it is racism, at least with the majority of people. I believe that a lot of people were legitimately concerned with Torii last summer and fall. I know I have stated on numerous occassions, as have you, that I feel he had a difficult time dealing with his first major injury and not being with the team and in the hunt. The Twins fall from contention last summer seemed to accelerate after his injury, therefore, I am hopeful that Torii comes back this year as good as ever and is a vital part of our pennant run.

In deference to one of the comments above, If TRyan were to trade Torii this summer...it won't be for a few prospects but rather for players of equal value.

by roger on Jan 23, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

>>Given the venom spewed at the only guy voted onto the All-Star game since Kirby Puckett, racism is starting to make more sense.

And if Michael Cuddyer were from Venezuela and Luis Rivas from Norfolk, Va., Cuddyer -- who has so far has had no better a career than Rivas and never enjoyed a single season as good as Rivas did as a rookie, although they are the same age -- would have endured the fans' wrath.

Instead, poor Cuddyer was "misused" and Rivas, who comes from a country rife with turmoil, which has to mess with the heads of some players, can't field, run or hit. Funny to read the comments about all the balls that got past Rivas. I watched him play. He was certainly a better fielder than Cuddyer. Now watching THAT was scary. How any Twins' fan could have ripped Rivas and not Cuddyer for their fielding is beyond me. I guess if you're white and trying, but failing, you're a gamer. If you're Latin, you're simply lazy.

Now with Rivas gone, who's the whipping boy? Mouthy, over-rated Lew Ford? Nope. Batista.

You can always tell when race is an issue: When the topic is broached, the outcry is endless.

Start your engines.

by Firpo Marberry on Jan 23, 2006 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Take a look around you

For instance, look at a lot of the discussion that went down at Twins Territory last year, particularly in regards to Jacque Jones and Michael Cuddyer. Both had a .500 OPS month. Cuddyer did it in April, though, and Jones did it in May after a hot April. Regardless, few were willing to talk about Jones' legitimately bad month, while the mobs wanted Cuddyer's head for his poor start and his un-Koskie glovework at 3B. I'd actually venture to say that in 2005, there were just as many bad things written about Cuddyer as there were about Rivas, if not more bad things written about Cuddyer.

But if you really want to know why Rivas, over his career, was perhaps more despised than Cuddyer, look at his edge in ABs. Rivas has 1883 ABs compared to Cuddyer's 993 ABs. It's pretty easy to garner twice as much criticism as someone else when you're taking up twice as many ABs. Additionally, Gardy just can't live for more than two or three days at a time without a middle infielder hitting second in the lineup. Neither Guzman or Rivas (or Bartlett or Castro or Punto or...) was worthy of hitting that high up in the lineup. They should have been buried at the bottom of the lineup, collecting as few at-bats as possible, maximizing their defensive value while minimizing the loss you take on their poor offense. But, at the top of the lineup, they were easy targets for criticism, while Cuddyer continues to linger towards the bottom of the lineup, where he belongs.

Or, explain this one--why were so many people who wanted Batista gone the first ones in line to say that Luis Castillo was a huge addition at 2B? It's not because they are racists, it's because they place a large value (sometimes too much, IMO) on OBP. As someone who's vehemently defended the Batista signing here (and I still think it was a good signing), I can comfortably say that Batista has to do a lot right to overcome his poor on-base ability.

And take "mouthy, over-rated Lew Ford" for instance. Why is he overrated? Is it because he's white, or is it because he made a great debut and first impressions matter a lot to fans? If Rivas had ever even approached Ford's 2004 EQA of .284, we'd be talking about why TR wasn't focusing on upgrading 3B more than 2B.

I'm not totally naive here, either. At some level, I'm sure race enters into this discussion. But if you're willing to take more than a moment's consideration, you can see that there's a lot more at play here than race. To characterize a large group of people as racists, you need a lot more evidence than you're providing here.

by ubelmann on Jan 23, 2006 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

This might be a first Firpo, but I actually completely agree with you on this point. I hated Luis Rivas, and I don't think he was a better player than Cuddyer (although I would agree that he certainly is a better fielder), but he wasn't much worse and he certainly caught a LOT more flack from the Twins blogosphere than Cuddy does. Everyone seems to be so apologetic to Cuddyer, and feeling like he should continually be given another shot... he has been handed starting positions at the start of two different seasons and he didn't perform well enough to hang on to either of them. He is not a particularly good defender anywhere on the field and he has not put together a decent offensive season at the Major League level to date.

I don't know if I'd label this as racism though. I think the reason people grew very irritated with Rivas was the fact that the Twins continued to use him as their starting second-baseman for five years despite his consistently horrific performances. I'm kind of growing to that point with Cuddyer now; he's been given enough chances, I think he's proven that he is not going to be a productive starter in this league.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 23, 2006 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rivas a better fielder?

Rivas turned the DP with the best of them. As for actually getting to a ball, Cuddyer was no worse, and his strong arm actually allowed him to turn the DP okay. My feeling was that Rivas was the worst fielding 2B in the majors, and that Cuddyer only replaced him there.

Sometime your low self-esteem is just good common sense.

by statman on Jan 24, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really the same

The difference between Hunter and your examples is Hunter is a good player. Even the biggest Rivas apologists now admit that he is at best mediocre. And Batista has plenty of flaws people can hold onto. I'm not sure why Cuddyer has been given as much of a free ride as he has. I was especially perplexed when people thought he was a viable second baseman and better defensively than Rivas. Rivas was never all that great at second, except on the DP, but he is better than Cuddyer at second.

I can understand why Rivas and Batista got ripped. I may not agree with everything people have said about them, especially Batista, but I at least understand it.

I just don't understand the Hunter criticism. He's a gold glove center fielder who consistently hits in the upper tier for his position. So I'm just really confused why so many people hate him for venting frustrations and getting into a fight with another player. Nobody ever talks about Morneau's role in any of that. But "Hunter is a fiend and needs to be traded at once, for a few middling prospects. Just dump him!"

Or, in the case of this thread, someone actually predicts that he's going to go after Joe Mauer like he did Morneau. Hunter's poised to go on a rampage through the clubhouse! He's a menace to his teammates and to baseball and to all we hold drear! Lock up your women, get the pitchforks. Hunter's in town. And his play will deteriorate into the tank!

That's so far removed from what I know about the player, it makes no sense to me. Grasping at something to make sense of it, I pulled out racism. It might not be racism, but it's as irrational as racism. The guy was as well liked as Kirby Puckett. Suddenly, he messes up a little (though not as much as Kirby did) and he's a pariah.

The other thing that astonishes me is the same people who were so sad to see Jacque Jones go as a signal of the end of an era are just as adamant about dumping Hunter. Hunter is a much better player than Jones. Hunter's been a better leader in the clubhouse and in the community than Jones over the course of his career. Yet folks are sad to see Jones go and can't wait for Hunter (one of two players left from 2002) to leave.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 23, 2006 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Contract

I think a big part of the Hunter criticism is based on his contract. When he is taking up 1/6 of the payroll, I think people expect more out of him then an inconsistent bat, they expect him to make the allstar game every year.

by snuessle on Jan 24, 2006 9:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

When I was talking about what surprises we would see this spring training, I didn't know the biggest would be waking up the "restless natives."

I don't believe race comes into play when comparing Cuddyer and Rivas. Cuddyer was a number 1 pick who put up excellent numbers in the minors and has showen brief signs of power and good hitting for the Twins. He is still living off his potential and may take another so-so year before more fans start dumping on him.

Rivas is another situation. Apparently a very likeable guy with many positive attributes, he appears to be missing one very important part of his game...good baseball instincts. Most problems with Rivas tended to be related to his not being mentally in the game. A slow start on a ball up the middle, not chasing down a foul ball that he had the best shot at getting, or some at bats that he just didn't seem to be in. He never seemed to take that final step from a player with a ton of potential to getting it done on the field. Five years grows a bit old for fans and expectations turn to disappointment. Considering how high these same fans are on Santana and Silva, I don't think that race or culture has anything to do with it.

by roger on Jan 24, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

Lew Ford injures himself trying to iron his shirt when it's already on....Bradke falls asleep in the dugout and never wakes up....Torii Hunter declares the team would be better if it still had AJ, Dougie, Jacque, John Castino, Tom Brunansky, Larry Hisle, and Mike Smithson because those guys "knew how to win"....Gardy inserts Punto into the leadoff spot...Molitor teaches Mauer the meaning of "beaver watching"...Cuddy drives in a run....

by wcooley on Jan 23, 2006 10:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pfft

Cuddy drives in a run....

Highly unrealistic.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Jan 24, 2006 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Smit

Where did you get your info about Alexander Smit? Last season he went from Beloit to E-Town. Just curious about it. Any thoughts on any other players aside from the ones mentioned?

by dan09 on Jan 24, 2006 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smit to Ft. Myers

First, all of the above projected surprises are merely my personal prediction. With that said, I did have a conversation about Smit with someone close to the organization. It appears that Smit had the same problem as Bowyer, needed to improve another pitch or two to go along with a dominating fastball...plus, he was in need of a confidence boost after a high era at Beloit.

When he was returned to Elizabethton, he was converted from a starter to a set-up man. The biggest question on where he begins this year is related to whether he is returned to the starting rotation or remains in the bullpen. He will have the advantage of playing in last fall's World Cup, the instructional league and the WBC this spring. I look for him to remain in the pen with all the starters vying for spots at Beloit, Ft. Myers and New Britain...and to jump a level from where he finished 2005 and begin the season at Ft. Myers.

by roger on Jan 24, 2006 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

I have been thinking of doing a diary that will take a look at which players have a good shot at jumping a level and reasons why some won't.

by roger on Jan 24, 2006 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

I think that would be a great idea about starting a diary that will take a look @ certain players. That was a really fast response. There are a couple of players in particular that I was curious about, but they will remain nameless until I actually feel the time is right to mention them.

by dan09 on Jan 24, 2006 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs