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Which minor leaguers could jump a level

As we look at the rising stars in the system, you would expect that some of the really good ones might jump a level and begin 2006 two levels higher than they ended 2005.

Why this might not happen for many players, however, is that the Twins have a history of being conservative with player development and moving players slowly.  It also may not happen to some because they are blocked from making a two level move by another top prospect at that level.  Following are several players who are candidates for a two level jump.

There really aren't any players on the year ending Ft. Myers roster that could make a two level jump to Rochester.  Perkins, Span, Moses and Blackburn all may have a chance to start at Rochester, however, they moved up to New Britain midway through 2005.  It is more realistic however, that they all will begin the season at New Britain with all candidates to move to AAA during the season.

There are several players on the year ending Beloit squad that could begin the season with the AA Rock Cats.  The most likely candidate actually wasn't on the Beloit squad, rather Alexi Casilla was on the Angels Midwest League squad.  Everything about Casilla indicates that he should be able to move quickly up the ladder and it would not be a surprise to see him begin the season in AA.  Other players that could be considered to begin the season at New Britain would include David Winfree, Deacon Burns and Jeremy Pickrel.  Winfree will likely begin the season however at Ft. Myers as Moses will be at New Britain.  Assuming that Doug Deeds and Alex Romero begin the season at Rochester, New Britain may have an opening for three or four young outfielders.  One will likely be Trent Oeltjen from Ft. Myers.  The others will likely include off season pickups Brent Krause, Eric Andrus (minor league Rule 5), and Jason Grove, however, should Burns or Pickrel have a great spring they could make the jump to AA.

With Elizabethton being a team that was loaded in 2005, one would think that several of the Rookie League Twins would skip Beloit and go straight to Ft. Myers.  The only problem is that Beloit also had a very solid starting 8 and excellent pitching staff.  There are several players however, who could make this jump.  Perhaps the most likely is Alexander Smit, who will likely be in Ft. Myers if he remains in the bullpen.  If they move Smit back to the starting rotation, look for him to return to Beloit as the Ft. Myers starting rotation is overloaded with potential starters.  Another candidate is second baseman/left fielder Juan Portes, who is one of the most exciting young hitters in the organization.  Elizabethton had three excellent catchers (Sean Richardson, Caleb Moore and Eli Tintor) and it is likely that one of them will begin at Ft. Myers, unless 18 year old Allan de San Miguel returns to Ft. Myers where he finished the season after being promoted from the GCL.  Another candidate would be Elizabethton's top hitter Erik Lis, however, he will likely be blocked by Woodard and Brown.

The Beloit Snappers will normally have the most players making a two level jump from the GCL Twins to low A ball.  One player that appears to be an excellent candidate is Allan de San Miguel, who must be considered as coming from the GCL even though he did finish the season at Ft. Myers as an injury replacement.  Pitchers that should have a real chance of moving to Beloit include Kyle Edlich, Matt Williams, Aaron Crain and Alex Burnett.  The GCL Twins double play combination of Andrew Thompson and Paul Kelly will likely begin the season with Beloit, as will top power hitter Danny Santiesteban.  Although Erik Lis will likely move from Elizabethton to Beloit, one of two first basemen from the GCL Twins will likely begin at Beloit.  Most would expect this player to be highly touted power hitting Henry Sanchez.  The Twins are very high on the GCL Twins top hitter, Josh Dean, who will also have a legitimate shot at being the first baseman to make the jump to Beloit.  

Spring training will prove to be an exciting time as all the Twins young talent battles for slots in the organization in 2006. It is also possible or even likely, that a player or two who didn't have a great 2005 will have a great spring and skip a level.  It will be fun to track who begins the season at which levels the first week of April    

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments

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Jumping Up
The problem with the Twins system has always been who is in front of you. They usually are pretty good about not jumping players above and beyond, expecially if someone hanging on is in palce at a higher level.

Also, screwing that up totally is that the Twins have often run the AA club like the Triple-A, a home for fall call-ups, or even the place to dip for the major league roster.

And Ryan seems to play it cool on not wanting to add players to the 40-man roster before their time, he'd rather go with a veteran minor league guy or a mid-talent prospect to fill that bump in the seasonal roster, if push comes to shove.

WHy make them eligible for arbitration any sooner than encessary.

by twintown on Jan 26, 2006 7:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Blocked
The Twins have much depth in their system, which means that players are often blocked by a prospect who is just as good, older and more experienced.

Considering that the team will always be working with a limited budget, it is probably smart that TRyan doesn't advance arbitration for good prospects by bringing them up either before they are ready or to sit on the bench.  I doubt that any player that can be a real help to the big club would be kept in the minors just to save future dollars.

by roger on Jan 26, 2006 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

AA club
I tatally disagree that the Twins run AA like most clubs run AAA. If you ever read Pat Neshek's blog, you would know how frustrated and disappointed his teammates were when only a few players got called up to AAA all year and none got the call in September.

Also, Ryan uses the 40 man like every other GM. It's a calculated risk to only use the 40 man to protect guys you think will be chosen in the Rule 5. So, this year he added Jose Mijeras--a pitcher with limited experience above low A ball--instead of Jason Miller--who pitched most of the year in AA. Similarly, he did not add Blackburn, Deeds, Maza, West, Kemp, Matienzo, and several other position players who had good years and showed major league promise because they were not likely to be drafted.

The Twins are fairly agressive at weeding out guys they think don't have a chance. Where they go slow is with always snding college players to the Appy League before moing them up. But I tend to agree with this policy.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Jan 27, 2006 11:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Others
What are your thoughts on:
Dwayne White (OF)
  (G)78 (AB)268 (R)35 (H)70 (2B)11 (3B)1 (HR)2  
  (RBI)30 (TB)89 (BB)25 (SO)44 (SB)2 (CS)4
  (OBP).326 (SLG).332 (AVG).261 (E)0
Johnny Woodard (1B)
  (G)60 (AB)217 (R)36 (H)51 (2B)9 (3B)1 (HR)8  
  (RBI)27 (TB)86 (BB)24 (SO)65 (SB)0 (CS)0
  (OBP).316 (SLG).396 (AVG).235 (E)7
Chris Brown (1B)
  (G)87 (AB)332 (R)46 (H)88 (2B)19 (3B)5 (HR)11
  (RBI)39 (TB)150 (BB)30 (SO)104 (SB)4 (CS)2
  (OBP).326 (SLG).452 (AVG).265 (E)5
Trevor Plouffe (SS)
  (G)127 (AB)466 (R)58 (H)104 (2B)18 (3B)0
  (HR)13 (RBI)60 (TB)161 (BB)50 (SO)78 (SB)8
  (CS)4 (OBP).300 (SLG).345 (AVG).223 (E)35
Kevin Slowey (P)
  (W)3 (L)2 (ERA)2.24 (G)13 (GS)9 (CG)1 (SHO)1  
  (SV)0 (IP)64.1 (H)42 (R)18 (ER)16 (HR)4 (BB)8  
  (SO)69

by dan09 on Jan 26, 2006 7:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments
Dwayne White was a pleasant surprise at Beloit after signing this past spring out of the U of Kansas.  White played very well, then tailed off a bit towards the end of the season.  If a Beloit outfielder would jump to New Britain, it would most likely be Burns or Pickrel.

Woodard has been a top prospect, however, played very little last year at Beloit due to a broken foot.  Brown signed as a mlfa and did very well for Beloit after he joined the team out of extended spring training after Woodard's injury.  Look for both to be at Ft. Myers with little chance of moving up to New Britain as they will likely have Brock Peterson and possibly even Matienzo, if he isn't the DH at Rochester.

Plouffe was one of the youngest players in the midwest league and needs to improve on many aspects of his game...defense, average, etc.  Expect he will move up to Ft. Myers.  

Slowey will likely begin the year at Ft. Myers and if he does well, could see a mid-season promotion to New Britain.  The Ft. Myers staff will be loaded and he will be competing with Rainville and Swarzak for any move up, however, he is older and could follow in Baker's footsteps with a move to AA in his first full season.

by roger on Jan 26, 2006 8:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Elizabethton powerhouses
Obviously Elizabethton does extremely well most every year.  Doesn't this seem a bit odd?  Well, I think most of us forget that while the Appy is our high level rookie league, it is actually the low level rookie league for some of the competition--those that have those "short season" teams.

Anyway, I think it's just something to consider.  The Midwest League (the next stop) is the same low A for every team, so I think that is where to best judge the talent on the Twins.

Sometime your low self-esteem is just good common sense.

by statman on Jan 27, 2006 12:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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