Projected Playing Time-2006

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 12:05 AM EST

Predicting Playing Time for 2006

One of the toughest things about trying to predict a team's performance before the season starts is figuring out how many games each player is going to play. Obviously, there will be injuries, and while we don't know exactly who is going to get injured, we do know which players are injury risks. In addition to injuries, we have to try to get in the mind of one Ron Gardenhire to figure out which players he'll pencil in the lineup and which players he'll keep on the bench.

With all of that in mind, I'm too curious to wait until the season starts to get an idea of how good the offense will be this season. So, with that ultimate goal in mind, here are my current best guesses at playing time for this season. If you see anything you think could be improved, or that I've overlooked, let me know, as I plan on following this up with a post on how the offense will look given these playing time estimates.

Estimates by position:

Last First Pos Games
Mauer Joe C 135
Redmond Mike C 27

Morneau Justin 1B 125
Cuddyer Mike 1B 22
Jones Garrett 1B 15

Castillo Luis 2B 140
Punto Nick 2B 22

Bartlett Jason SS 130
Castro Juan SS 27
Punto Nick SS 5

Batista Tony 3B 120
Punto Nick 3B 15
Castro Juan 3B 15
Cuddyer Mike 3B 12

Stewart Shannon LF 120
Ford Lew LF 42

Hunter Torii CF 130
Ford Lew CF 32

Cuddyer Mike RF 90
Ford Lew RF 42
Kubel Jason RF 30

White Rondell DH 125
Sierra Ruben DH 15
Ford Lew DH 22

Estimates by player:

Last First Games
Castillo Luis 140
Ford Lew 138
Mauer Joe 135
Bartlett Jason 130
Hunter Torii 130
Morneau Justin 125
White Rondell 125
Cuddyer Mike 124
Batista Tony 120
Stewart Shannon 120
Punto Nick 42
Castro Juan 42
Kubel Jason 30
Redmond Mike 27
Jones Garrett 15
Sierra Ruben 15

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Comments

Shared Time

What happens when it's a blowout and they take Mauer out in the 6th and bring in Redmond? That's the only thing I'd change--games at all positions add up to 162. If this is a chart of games started, that's different.

I'll be posting my early prediction on numbers shortly, we'll have to compare and contrast then.

by Jesse on Feb 23, 2006 12:51 AM EST reply actions

Blowouts?

The offense is going to score enough runs to make it a blowout? Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. :)

One thing that I didn't state very clearly is that I don't plan on dealing with partial games here. So, basically, I'm saying that Mauer is going to get 135/162, or about 83%, of the time at catcher. I'm thinking of taking some of those games away at catcher and slotting Mauer into DH for a few more of those 135, but I think 135 games is about right for Mauer.

It should be fun to compare and contrast our numbers, though.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 1:09 AM EST up reply actions

Well...

first off, let me just say that if these are the games played, we are screwed. We will finish 4th if those actually happen.

Just at first glance, I would say these are off. I've posted my estimates for games started (total, any position) next to each with your projections in parenthesis:

Ford 50 (138)
Hunter 140 (130)
Morneau 140 (125)
White 135 (125)
Cuddyer 130 (124)
3bX 30 (120)
Stewart 130 (120)
Punto 25 (42)
Castro 25 (42)
Kubel 130 (30)

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 3:00 AM EST reply actions

You are a lot closer...

...to my expectations. The biggest difference will be Kubel. One change I do see from all of these however, is that Cuddyer won't start 124 or 130 games. Obviously, Kubel starts in right field come primarily at the reduction of Cuddyer's. Looks like you have Cuddyer's starts moved to 3B...we will know a lot more about that in the next few weeks. All indications are that he is focusing on outfield at this early date.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Feb 23, 2006 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

Right...

I hope that was clear about 3b. I guess I should actually move Cuddyer's down to about 60-65 and insert Mora with 60 :)

Seriously though, I just don't see 3bX making it, and when they realize how great (and ready) Kubel is, I think they'll be forced to finally realize that Cuddyer is the best answer we have at 3b right now.

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Middle Infield

There's no way that Punto and Castro each get in only 25 games next season. 25 games over the season is about once a week, and Gardy doesn't like guys to get stale on the bench. Consider that in Hocking's last season in Minnesota, he got 188 at-bats in parts of 83 games. Last year, Punto played the equivalent of 34 games at SS and 3B. He's likely the first off the bench for 2B, so I don't see how there's any way Gardy's going to manage to restrain himself and only put Punto out there once a week. (Plus, Castillo is an injury risk, especially moving to turf, and Punto is probably the likely replacement for Castillo.)

Similarly, even though Castro's never been a starter (as far as I can tell), he's managed to get over 200 ABs in five of the last six seasons. Expecting a bench guy to play less than 30 games just isn't realistic.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Outfield

Jason Kubel played exactly zero games last year. To pencil him in for 130 games this year is wildly, wildly optimistic. He both has his injury and an adjustment period to overcome, plus convincing the coaches that he's the best man for the job.

The last three years, Stewart's games have gone 136, 92, and 132. He's not getting any healthier. Maybe I'd go up to 125, but I think 130 is too high.

Hunter's a huge risk to suffer aggrevate his previous injury, or injure himself differently while banging into an outfield wall. 140 games is a lot of games for someone just coming off of crutches.

Similarly, while White's health will hopefully benefit from DH'ing, he's still going to be running the bases on turf, and 135 is something of a best-case scenario for games played. Plus, Mauer's likely going to have some games at DH that cut into his ABs, and you know that Gardy's going to need to put Sierra in at DH now and then, Offerman-style, to keep him "fresh."

We'll know a lot more about Batista later, but the feeling I get is that Kubel is going to be sent to AAA to start the season, and that leaves the team rather short on outfielders, especially if Cuddyer wins the RF job as I expect, so I'm going to say that Batista will get plenty of time at 3B. If nothing else, consider it a worst-case projection from the Batista standpoint.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Well...

obviously this is our biggest point of disagreement. I think from the reports on Kubel's swing right now that he will wow throughout the spring and force them to start him. When realizing they're set at RF, I see them then focusing on the real albatross, 3b.

Also, by all reports, Hunter will be just fine, aka 100 percent. I see no reason for him to miss significant time.

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

How about...

"I see no reason for him to miss significant time."

How about the fact that he's constantly running around crashing into walls and diving over the outfield? The surprising thing wasn't that he got seriously hurt last year, but rather, that it took him so long to injure himself that badly.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Starting...

I don't think these guys will START more than 30 or so. I expect Bartlett to play about 130, like you said, and Castillo to play around 140, like you said. I don't see either playing any other position, and I don't really see Punto/Castro playing any other position save maybe a handful of games at 3b. Defensive replacements maybe (Castro) or inserted in blowouts, but I thought we were talking about STARTING games. With 130 and 140, that leaves just 54 games to play with for starting plus say 5 games at 3b. And I expect LRod to at least get a few games in there of PT. So I doubt they start any more than a MAX of 30 each.

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply actions

Playing time, not games...

"...but I thought we were talking about STARTING games."

Again, I didn't make this very clear in the initial post, but I did try to clarify in my response to jclund above. By saying Castro and Punto are going to play 47 games, I'm expecting they'll wind up playing in 47/162, or about 29%, of the Twins' games this year. I don't want to bother trying to predict how much time they start compared to how much time they come in off the bench.

I think the big thing here is that I'm trying to account for the possibility of injuries and you don't want to acknowledge that possibility as much. Our position players have some mighty bad health records, and Gardenhire has a phobia of playing Bartlett. I think it's pretty likely that between injuries and Gardy's tendancy for playing defense-first players that Punto and Castro will wind up playing a bunch of games this year.

Also, consider that last season, Castro played the equivalent of about 80 full games and Punto played the equivalent of about 100-105 games. Penciling them in for 47 games each is a huge reduction in playing time for them, which should help the offense out a lot.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

Starting?

How many did they start?

They played a lot more last year because they were two of our top 3 options at 2b/SS. We have TWO better options at those positions now.

And I acknowledge the Hunter injury risk; I'm simply saying "based on last year." Sorry if I wasn't more clear. Hunter's as close to an everyday guy as we have to me. Same with Castillo. If healthy, I'd pencil them in for 150 each, but I'm admitting some injuries, thus 140 each.

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Not much of an admission...

"...but I'm admitting some injuries, thus 140 each."

The minimum DL stint is 15 days. The team has managed to get by in recent years without having to use the DL a lot, but I think if Hunter gets injured, it'll probably require some time on the DL.

"We have TWO better options at those positions now."

We had Bartlett last year, and Gardy still wouldn't play him. With the middle infield situation, I would be assigning time differently if I was running the club. Unfortunately (mainly for me), Gardy's running the club instead, and he really likes defense-first shortstops like Punto and Castro, probably because they remind him of how he was back in his playing days. The only option we've added is Castillo, and moving to turf, he's a big injury risk.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

And where?

Again, if you have Bartlett and Castillo starting a combined 270 games, that only leaves 54 games at 2b/SS. Where else do you see them starting? I can't see them starting more than a max of 10 games at 3b or we're really in trouble.

by djskilbr on Feb 23, 2006 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

It's all up in the table for positions...

...I've got each pencilled in for 15 games at 3B. That's probably a little on the high side for what they will play there, but I don't see their offense as being terribly different than, say, Tiffee or Williams, and if Batista doesn't play much, I'm betting that Gardy still won't be able to stand Cuddyer's defense, so he'll try to get those guys off the bench and onto the field. Plus, the 3B situation is the most unsettled right now, so my solution was to put a bunch of guys there, since it seems unlikely it'll be any one guy for the whole season.

As far as the trouble you see, well, we might very well wind up being in a lot of trouble. When Punto and Castro are your primary backups, your offense stands to take a big hit if you suffer an injury. But, like I mentioned above, these projections are already big improvements on the number of games that Punto and Castro played in last year.

by ubelmann on Feb 23, 2006 2:58 PM EST up reply actions