Early Offensive Predictions, 2006

by Jesse on Feb 24, 2006 3:14 AM EST in News Comment 54 comments

I've been meaning to do this for a week or so, and with ubelmann's post about playing time, this seems a good time to jump into the fray.

You'll find the numbers below, with commentary on most of the primary players following. Let's open it up.

Offensive Statistics, 2006
Name GAM AB HIT 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Torii Hunter 152 541 147 35 2 24 83 26 52 111 .272 .335 .477 .812 Justin Morneau 151 523 139 28 2 31 104 0 55 107 .266 .336 .505 .841 Luis Castillo 148 542 166 21 7 5 36 27 67 58 .306 .383 .398 .781 Rondell White 143 522 146 31 2 18 85 1 48 91 .280 .344 .450 .794 Joe Mauer 139 535 170 34 3 17 96 10 77 64 .318 .403 .488 .891 Jason Bartlett 137 438 122 21 3 4 32 11 40 65 .279 .339 .368 .707 Shannon Stewart 127 424 116 22 1 8 42 4 31 54 .274 .323 .388 .711 Tony Batista 120 357 93 19 0 21 47 6 18 63 .261 .296 .485 .781 Michael Cuddyer 114 384 106 17 1 14 45 4 31 72 .276 .330 .435 .765 Lew Ford 102 337 94 26 2 7 38 14 38 51 .279 .352 .430 .782 Jason Kubel 86 240 68 15 1 6 28 3 26 38 .283 .391 .429 .820 Nick Punto 70 168 43 9 3 3 11 9 14 42 .256 .313 .363 .676 Luis Rodriguez 66 152 40 11 1 1 8 7 13 30 .263 .321 .355 .676 Mike Redmond 54 124 36 6 0 2 13 0 11 19 .290 .348 .387 .735 Juan Castro 51 112 26 11 0 6 12 0 8 24 .232 .283 .384 .667 Ruben Sierra 26 65 18 3 1 2 8 0 4 25 .277 .319 .400 .719 Glenn Williams 21 57 16 3 0 1 3 0 6 15 .281 .349 .386 .735 Garrett Jones 13 43 9 1 0 3 5 0 5 12 .209 .292 .442 .734 Chris Heintz 10 24 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 10 .167 .231 .208 .431 Terry Tiffee 8 21 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 .143 .308 .143 .451 Alex Romero 6 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 2 5 .308 .400 .615 1.015 TOTALS 162 5622 1566 315 29 174 694 122 553 969 .279 .343 .438 .781

Torii Hunter
Torii proves he is at full health in 2006, and ends the season leading the team in games played. He has a slightly above average season but still belts 24 homers, but because of his lower place in the batting order (6th) he tallies only 83 RBI. He doesn't quite steal bags at the break-neck pace of 2005, but still swipes 26. He leads the team in doubles and strikeouts.

Justin Morneau
Morneau takes a number of steps in the right direction, increasing his numbers across the board. Having a full offseason to train pays off. He leads the team in a number of offensive categories, including home runs, RBI and SLG. Possibly missing a stretch of 3-5 games due to a minor ailment, he misses no major time.

Luis Castillo
Castillo is exactly what he hoped he would be: a great on-base guy at the top of the order. There isn't much power, but he finds a way to reach base. He leads the team in steals, and is second to Mauer in hits, walks and OBP. One possible stretch of missing 5-7 games.

Rondell White
Avoiding major set-backs, White has his first 500 at-bat season since 1999. Statistically he's not great but he does what he can, making the most of his time in the clean-up role. Not as much power as we'd like but he drives in 85, good for 3rd on the team. He's also third in doubles, strikeouts and OBP in the every-day lineup.

Joe Mauer
Coming in at only 139 games, most of Mauer's days off are day-following-night game situations. He may have a couple streaks of missing 3 or 4 consecutive games. Performance wise he's fantastic and takes the next step in virtually every phase of the game. He developes a decent power stroke, mostly to the gaps that helps him be second on the team in doubles. At his young age he's still quick, and nabs double-digit swipes for the second year in a row. He leads the team in many offensive categories: hits, walks, OBP and OPS.

Jason Bartlett
Bartlett turns in 137 games at short, and turns himself into a serviceable piece of the offensive puzzle. His OBP is still lower than you'd like, but he drives 21 doubles and steals 11 bases en route to an improved season.

Shannon Stewart
Stewart misses two major bits of time in 2006, missing three stretches of 7-10 games that keep him from finding his rhythm. This missed time hides the fact that, while his speed is dropping off and his defensive abilities are still liabilities, he can hit if he stays healthy long enough to do so. He finishes on a downward skid and has another sub-par year.

Tony Batista
A majority of Batista's time comes in the first half of the season, playing 75 of his games and hitting 15 of his home runs before the break. A bleak second half sees his starts and AB/game drop off. His displays of power make for a deceivingly average OPS.

Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer wins the RF job out of spring training and holds it down for the first couple months of the season. He's spelled regularly by Lew Ford, then more and more often by Jason Kubel. When it becomes apparent that Batista's skills at the plate are creating a hole in the lineup, he's moved back to third where his offensive numbers begin to slip. His shows finesse at the plate and an improved overall game, but the constant switching of positions never lets him get comfortable.

Lew Ford
Most of Ford's major playing time comes in the middle months of the season when Cuddyer is in transition to third base, when Stewart is injured, and when Kubel is still getting his feet wet. He sees lots of partial games, and in spite of the inconsistant time improves his numbers. At season's end when Kubel has taken his place in right field, Ford's time mostly comes in left field during Stewart's games out of the lineup.

Jason Kubel
Kubel is brought to the club late in May, initially as a bench player. As the summer wears on his time becomes more consistant, and his numbers begin to rise. His injury is behind him, although he is not at his previous playing levels, and he misses no time other than days off. Right field is his everyday role by August.

Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro
These guys all split utility time, with most of Punto's time at 2B and SS, Rodriguez's time at 2B and 3B, and Castro's time at SS and 3B. Thankfully there are only 2 or 3 days where they are all in the lineup together.

Naked BP
Redmond plays his backup role well, and is productive when he plays, notching a good average and OBP. He doesn't have a lot of offensive opportunities, but he makes the most of them when he does.

Ruben Sierra
All of Sierra's time comes early in the season as an injury callup. When the Twins try to option him back to AAA, he refuses and is released.

Glenn Williams
Williams gets random starts at 3B, but never more than 2 in a row. All of his time is after the All Star break, and while he isn't as impressive at his short time last year, he'd be a decent stop-gap player for a couple weeks if we needed him to be.

Garrett Jones, Chris Heintz, Terry Tiffee, Alex Romero
Heintz and Tiffee prove why they'll never see Twins uniforms again. Romero is a monster in the final 2 1/2 weeks of the season, getting sporatic at-bats but being quite successful at the dish. Garrett Jones isn't quite as successful but is a bit more flashy, getting only 9 hits with 3 of them being extremely long home runs.

What I missed...
I forgot to calculate Runs Scored, but at this stage of the game it's time for bed. Also there's this dude who goes by the name of Wooten, who I think may have better luck as a third catcher than Heintz 57.

Coming up is a long weekend, but hopefully I can get my pitcher predictions up by late Sunday night.

Was I too optimistic in certain areas? Too pessimistic? Discuss and debate...

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Comments

WOW...

That's a hell of an analysis. I thank you for it.

Maybe I'm more optimistic than others here, but I really see Kubel contributing more than this, especially with the reports coming out of camp already. If nothing else, I certainly expect him to be the full-time starting RF WELL before August. I see him starting the season there in fact, but in the WORST case, starting there by June 1.

I especially love your projections for Mauer, Morneau, and Hunter and think they are all close to dead-on. The same might be said for White as well, though I predict a few more HR's (think 21ish) from him and a bit higher average.

I think your Bartlett projection also might be accurate, perhaps a little optimistic, and the same for Stewart, perhaps a little pessimistic.

My only major problem (and this is likely no secret) is with 3bX. I guess this is effected by the Kubel differing view. If Kubel is right, and I think he will be, then the Twins will start to shift to Cuddyer more at 3b, especially if 3bX is struggling, which I also view as probable. I would not be surprised if he is either not a Twin or buried on the bench by June 1.

Lastly, I tend to agree with your Romero analysis. I think he'll look great for a good stint. And I disagree with Sierra, and think he'll stick as a solid veteran PH for the season. These last points are hardly scientific though and are obviously pretty subjective views (noone knows on either).

Overall though, I appreciate the analysis and think it's a pretty good overall job. Can't wait to see the pitching estimates.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 4:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

So, my pipedream lineup at season's end would look something like this:
Name Pos AVG HR RBI SB OBP Castillo 2B .306 5 36 27 .383 Mauer C .318 17 96 10 .404 White DH .280 18 85 1 .344 Morneau 1B .266 31 107 0 .336 Hunter CF .272 24 83 26 .335 Kubel RF .283 6 28 3 .391 Stewart LF .274 8 42 4 .323 Cuddyer 3B .276 14 45 4 .330 Bartlett SS .279 4 32 11 .339

by Jesse on Feb 24, 2006 4:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like that lineup

but I'd probably put Stewart at #2, if healthy, giving Mauer more RBI opportunities, and furthering the L-R-L trend. Castillo is a great OBP guy and Stewart is to a lesser extent, but is a very professional,patient hitter who would give Mauer more pitches to see. I've said it before, but my ideal lineup would be the following:

Castillo
Stewart
Mauer
White
Morneau
Hunter
Kubel
Cuddyer
Bartlett

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow!

Thanks, that is an excellent analysis...one that I believe could be very prophetic.

First, I would question that we get through the season with no major injuries. Is this likely, no. Unfortunately, when doing a projection like this there is no way of knowing who that injury may be to.

I think White will become an excellent DH hitting better than .300. Although I would like to think that Stewart should hit for higher average, I suspect his career is in decline and you may be right on. I also think that Jason Kubel will begin the season in right field and that he will hit over .300 in his rookie season. Obviously, that would have a corresponding effect on Cuddyer.

Finally, I am not one of the people who has been piling garbage on Batista this winter. Rather, I would like to see us all give him a chance to prove himself or fail on the field. I am beginning to see a trend I don't like however. The reports from the D.R. where his condition and defense were questioned...when confirmed by a Twins scout weren't positive. I also would have preferred to not see Batista listed as one of only three players who were not in camp as of yesterday. We will all learn what type of player we can expect over the next few weeks, however, I am fearful that he may not play as much (or any) ball as you project.

by roger on Feb 24, 2006 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

I agree with much of this, but I don't think they would call Kubel up as a bench player. I think he plays everyday with an occasional off day. If he's not a starter in Minnesota, they'll keep him in Rochester until September. But I don't see that happening. I think we'll see him in right field everyday certainly before the all star break.

As for Batista, I'm not concerned about him not being in camp early. Castillo and Stweart were the other two players not yet in camp. Those are two of the hardest working guys in baseball. But if Batista fails to show up in time for camp, I'll start to worry. And I would have liked him to get after it more in the Dominican, but if he shows up in shape, no one will remember the ball he didn't move for in the Dominican.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's it....

I finally came up with a new title for 3bX. BBII. I think you all can figure that one out.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why wait 'til Semptember?

"I think he plays everyday with an occasional off day. If he's not a starter in Minnesota, they'll keep him in Rochester until September."

I'd say that it's likely to become obvious that Kubel can out-hit Ford and Cuddyer once he gets some regular playing time in Rochester. I personally expect he'll be playing regularly for the Twins by the end of July, or perhaps middle of August. That is, I think the situation will play out a lot like when Morneau was called up to help boost the offense in 2004.

by ubelmann on Feb 24, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I say May at the latest

My point was that he'll be starting wherever he is, and I did say it'll be in Minnesota before the All Star break. But if pressed, I'd say he'll be up in May if not April. Gardy seems to be really cautious with him. But the coaches are raving. Eventually their voices will be heard.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2006 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

couldn't agree more CMath. Kubel is too polished of a hitter to waste any more than a MAX of 1-1 1/2 months down in AAA. I still think he'll actually be our RF as of April 1, and would not be surprised if Cuddyer is playing 3b for us either then (BBII cut) or soon after as well.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sierra

I guess I didn't read far enough down. I disagree with Sierra. If the Twins are in it till the end, so is Sierra, as our lefty pinch hitter off the bench who knows all the relief pitchers in the league. And I fully expect the Twins to be in it to the end with their pitching and improved top of the order.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2006 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I hate to say it

... but I think these projections are too optimistic. Last year, 10 of the 17 guys who got 100+ at-bats hit .260 or below. This year, you reduce that number to 2. That's pretty vast improvement. You've got the team batting average improving from .259 last year (second to last) to .279, which is better than the Yankees last year. I expect improvement, but not THAT much.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Feb 24, 2006 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who got those at-bats, though?

Part of the projection isn't so much who is getting the playing time, but who isn't getting playing time. Let's look at those 10 guys with 100+ ABs and hit below .260 last year:

Player AB AVG Status Mike Ryan 117 .231 No longer with the Twins Rivas 136 .257 No longer with the Twins Tiffee 150 .207 Now behind Batista, Williams Bartlett 224 .241 Castro 272 .257 LeCroy 422 .260 No longer with the Twins Punto 394 .239 Now behind Castillo Morneau 490 .239 Presumably healthier Jones 523 .249 No longer with the Twins

So, first off, by espn's count, there were only 9 of those guys to begin with. The Twins got rid of 4 of those guys, so that starts to make a dent there.

Punto is now behind Castillo, so he won't be getting as many at-bats. (And the ghost of Brett Boone won't be hitting .170 in 53 ABs.)

Now, make just two optimistic assumptions: Morneau and Bartlett hit better than .260. Morneau definitely has the talent to do it, and if he even if he just hits .260, it's going to be with power. If Bartlett can even hit .260, then he takes ABs away from Castro and Punto.

Then, if Batista just gets fewer ABs than Jones got last year, he's not as big of a drag on the batting average as you might expect.

Basically, this seems like a classic case of addition by subtraction, and I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Bartlett and Morneau to better .260, or at least get close.

by ubelmann on Feb 24, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I'll go out on a limb and say Bartlett will hit .280 out of the number nine hole.

He hit .296 at New Britain in 2003 with a .380 OBP. He his .331 at Rochester in 2004 with a .415 OBP. And he hit .332 at Rochester in 2005 with a .405 OBP. After he got called up in August, his average was over .300 and his OBP over .400 until he slumped in September. He's certainly capable of hitting .300 at the major league level if he doesn't have the weight of the world (or the number 2 spot in the order) on his shoulders and he remains strong throughout the long season. .280 is reasonable for him.

Morneau will hit slightly better than .260, IMO, but he'll let her rip a lot more than he did last year, resulting in 30 HRs.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2006 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

Those are good points. I guess that the idea of Batista hitting .261/.296/.485 seems EXTREMELY optimistic to me. Looking at his last two seasons in the Majors, where do those numbers come from? At 32, his average and OBP magically just shoot up 20 points each despite not having seen Major League pitching for a year and a half? And a .485 slugging percentage? What??? He hasn't posted a SLG over .457 since he hit 41 home runs in 2000.

I agree that Bartlett could hit .280, he certainly has the history, and I do think Morneau is capable of a comeback year. I just don't see where those numbers come for Batista.

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Feb 24, 2006 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Batista

Yeah, his numbers were definately optimistic. More so than anyone elses. As for where the numbers come from, they came from the same place everyone elses did. The SLG is high, but it was done purposely so into making some think he'd have a better season than he really did. Lots of XBH, nothing real to show for it. Not a doomsday prediction for Batista since I do expect a little flash from him at the plate, but the overall content isn't that great.

by Jesse on Feb 24, 2006 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HRs to RBI

21 homers but only 47 RBI? What is the all-time record for most homers with the fewest RBI (minimum 20 HRs)?

by wcooley on Feb 24, 2006 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HRs to RBI

I found this in cyberspace:
The record for fewest RBI with over 40 HRs is held by Ken Griffey, Jr. In 1994 he hit 40 home runs and drove in 90 runs.

Harmon Killebrew holds the record for most home runs in a season without driving in 100 runs. In 1963 he hit 45 home runs and drove in 96.

by wcooley on Feb 24, 2006 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Barry bonds....

2003-45 HR's, 90 rbi's
2004-45 HR's, 101 rbi's

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Optimistic perhaps, but with whom?

The only guy batting above .260 in my projections who has just as good of a chance of hitting below that line is Batista. I'm quite confident that everyone else above that line will stay above it.

As far as team batting, yes, .279 is pretty drastic improvement.
Year Team BA 2000 .270 2001 .272 2002 .272 2003 .277 2004 .266 2005 .259
In 2004 our offense got just enough in just the right spots to get the job done. That was at .266. If the Twins are to contend this year, and I think they will, the team will have to hit better overall, which they will.

I'm not concerned that .279 is too high of a number, simply because of how miserable and impotent the lineup was in 2005. Should they not reach that mark it won't be because of the players who can be around .260, it'll be because numbers from the better players won't be as high as I've predicted. Mauer hits .305 instead of .318; Castillo hits .297 instead of .306; Hunter hits .265 instead of .272; Cuddyer hits .265 instead of .276.

One last thing is that in 2003 the Twins hit .277 as a club, and overall, we have better hitters on the 2006 version. The predictions are optimistic for sure, but not torturously so.

by Jesse on Feb 24, 2006 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2003 pitching

In 2003 we were playing against horrible teams in the AL central. You can't read too much into team BA from the years when the Twins won the division, because our competition was wretched.

I'm optimistic overall about this team's offense, but don't expect it to do as well as these projections, in part because the AL Central's pitching should be better, especially Chicago and Cleveland, than it has been the last few years. Many people expect a drop-off in Cleveland this year; I don't share that optimism. Cleveland scares me, more than the White Sox.

But, we'll see. Spring is in the air, and it won't be long till Dick and Bert are filling my living room with the dulcet tones of Twins baseball.

by SDfan on Feb 24, 2006 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland will drop off...

At least one of the young kids will drop off from their production last year (Peralta would be my bet), Millwood to Byrd is a significant dropoff, and the bullpen can't possibly repeat it's performance of last year.

Of course, I expect the Sox to drop off as well, as they had a bit of a flukey year last year.

The one team in the ALC I actually see dramatically improving (besides the Twins) is Detroit, especially in pitching. I think Bonderman takes the next leap to becoming an elite starter, and I think Verlander makes a big impact by the 2nd half. They might not finish higher than 4th, but they will be very competitive and will at least be within a game or two of the CWS or Cleveland, whichever one of those finishes 3rd.

The Tigers, along with the Orioles (see: greatest pitching coach in the history of the planet) are the two teams people are sleeping on far too much.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland's pitching is just OK

Last year, it was great, but this year? They repaced the ERA champion with Paul Byrd. They replaced Scott Elarton with Jason Johnson. And they replaced Bobby Howry, David Riske, and Arthur Rhodes with Guillermo Mota. Cleveland's pitching wil be better than most teams int heLA, but not as good as the Twins, Oakland's or Chicago's (in that order). And the White Sox areabout the same this year as last.

Overall, I don't think the pitching the Twins will face is much beter than it was last year, with the exception of needing to play the NL Central rather than the NL West.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2006 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

20 points, and an interesting fact

The Twins have improved their BA by 20 points or more from one season to the next twice. It hasn't happened in more than 30 years, which means it's never happened in the Dome.

A 17-point rise is the most in the Dome. Since '97, the team BAs have been remarkably static:
.270, .266, .264, .270, .272., 272. .277,
.266, .259.

Law of averages says it rises this year. By 20? It would be a first since the Dump was plopped down.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 24, 2006 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a first time for everything, right?

It would be a pretty big jump, but the fact that the Twins are coming from such a low average in the first place makes it a little more reasonable that they could make the jump. (That is, it's easier to increase your average when all it takes is replacing poor performance with adequate performance than if you need to replace adequate with above-average performance.)

by ubelmann on Feb 24, 2006 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not for coming back from the dead, for starters

.237 and .244 were the BAs of the previous season when they made that jump. There's low, and there's LOW.

While this is not in the realm of the impossible, this does suggest you need to be REALLY low to rally back.

Looking at the records, it seems a 15-point increase is not too high a bar, but 20 for some reason -- I imagine someone with a calculator, an apptitude for this sort of thing and 5 hours could tell us why -- at least in the Dome, is an obstacle.

And I don't know if this is applicable to the Dome or any yard, but being it was not applicable to the Met makes me wonder. As well, the game was different back then. Maybe that's the factor.

I guess I'd rather see a jump in SA, if we get one wish granted.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 25, 2006 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

on all. I expect us to have a lot bigger offensive resurgence than a lot of "experts" think right now.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Mauer will not drive in 96. White will not drive in 85. Morneau will not drive in 104. You are about 20 high on all three. Hunter and Castillo are not going to steal 53 bases. You are off on those, but I like a lot of what you project. Batista outhits Cuddyer, Stewart and Ford are shaky, Bartlett takes a step forward. I also think (hope) that Kubel does more.

by CArew on Feb 24, 2006 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Probably optimistic

That line-up probably scores 800 runs and probably more.

Id love to see that kind of consistency where every regular posts a .700 or above OPS but I dont think it likely.

The Twins do that and the pitching stays the same and you have the 2006 WS champs in my opinion.

by BHtwins on Feb 24, 2006 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Comments

Thanks for the analysis. Great job.

My thoughts:

There is no way Bartlett hits .279. While he showed improvement late in the year. He usually stands in the batters box looking intimidated and over-matched. He's still at least one more year away.
Why does Tony Batista get benched after batting .261 in the 8 hole when Morneau is fighting for his middle order spot with a .266?
When is everyone going to face the fact that Michael Cuddyer will never play consecutive games at 3B again unless Batista gets injured? I think Glenn Williams has a better shot at taking that place than Cuddyer. How many times does management have to state that just because Cuddyer has played 3B in the past, it doesn't mean it worked out.
That said, I expect Michael Cuddyer to make it a tough decision for Gardy when Kubel is fully ready because I'm expecting him to hit in the high .280s in RF.

by TheMattWilke on Feb 24, 2006 10:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Batting Average...

"Why does Tony Batista get benched after batting .261 in the 8 hole when Morneau is fighting for his middle order spot with a .266?"

Morneau's OBP is higher
Morneau's SLG is higher (because his ISO is a lot higher)
Morneau has a future with the club

(And on a side note, I'd be surprised if Batista hit for average that well, it's not really one of his skills even when he's doing well.)

by ubelmann on Feb 24, 2006 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just saying...

When you have a veteran bat (exactly what the organization has been after) at the price of $1.25 million hitting 15 HRs by the all-star break (which would have led the 2005 Twins) putting up hypothetical numbers on par with Morneau, you don't bench him. I'll let a light OBP slide at the 8 hole if he hits 15 jacks by the break, and Gardy will too.

My projected #s for T-Bat are

.240 AVG/25 HR/80 RBI/.308 OBP/.730 OPS

I just don't see why we'd bench a guy who's going to put up 20+ homers from the 8 hole. It's a spot where OBP is relatively less important, especially when power production is happening.

by TheMattWilke on Feb 25, 2006 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would tend to agree with that, then...

...with the caveat that it all depends how Batista looks in the field. If the Twins were just concerned about hitting out of 3B, I think they'd still have Cuddyer there. However, reports of Batista coming to camp overweight, and statements by Batista himself saying he needs to lose weight in camp, make me question a little bit my assumption that his defense would be solid like it has been in the past.

If Batista's defense is fine, then the Twins will treat him much like they treated Blanco after Mauer was injured.

If Batista's defense isn't fine, then I'm guessing they'll treat him like they treated Offerman.

by ubelmann on Feb 25, 2006 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um, okay....

So if Cuddyer is hitting in the high .280s and Kubel is playing like Kubel (I think both of these are reasonable) and BBII is struggling, then where DO you put Cuddyer? It only makes sense that they will logically look at that as the next step. Gardy has said as much in stating that it's not out of the question, and that "we have some guys who have played a lot of 3b before." I wasn't there for it, but I heard in the TR chat, he admitted as much as well, that Cuddyer would be the fallback when/if BBII fails.

I see Cuddyer back at 3b by NO LATER than June 1.

by djskilbr on Feb 24, 2006 10:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

"I see Cuddyer back at 3b by NO LATER than June 1."

Care to put a friendly wager on this comment? More specifically that Cuddyer will be starting 3B by June 1. In fact, I'll give you to June 15.

I propose a wager of 2 GA seats to the non-sell out game of the winner's choice. I really don't see this happening.

by TheMattWilke on Feb 25, 2006 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm in....

with one caveat. The deal is off if there is a trade for a 3b (say Lohse for Mora) before then. The real argument is Cuddyer over BBII anyway.

by djskilbr on Feb 25, 2006 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To Review and confirm

The wager is that Michael Cuddyer will be the Minnesota Twins' starting 3B by the end of day on June 15 at 11:59pm. The wager is null and void if the Twins make a deal outside the organization for a new 3B.

Please confirm this.

by TheMattWilke on Feb 25, 2006 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You got it...

and for 2 GA seats to the non-sellout game of the winner's choice.

by djskilbr on Feb 25, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

p.s.

can i get a witness?

by djskilbr on Feb 25, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Witness

:-)

Nick & Nick's Twins Blog

by Nick Nelson on Feb 25, 2006 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lohse for Mora

Why oh why do you torture me with these dreams?

by Jlubby on Feb 25, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hehe

i torture myself with them as well.

by djskilbr on Feb 25, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for doing this

I think this is a wildly optimistic prediction, though.

This would have given them the 5th best OPS in the AL last season, and probably would mean roughly 775 runs scored. I just think that kind of improvement is at the extreme end of what's possible.

The issue isn't any single player, but really, you have only Stewart really having a bad year.

In particular, I think the idea of getting 290 games from White and Castillo is unlikely, and in general, I think you predict too much health.

I hope you're right though.

by Eric in Madison on Feb 25, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Batista/Stewart

Nicely done...I actually think most of those are pretty realistic, with the amazingly obvious exception of Batista. Yes, most people will think he's better than he is (unless he goes 0-for-spring and gets cut, for which I'm still praying), but the problem is that with your projection, he wouldn't even be "bad," per se, and there's no way he'd get benched. He hasn't had an OPS that high in six seasons, and he never will again. If (god forbid) he gets a full season with the team, I'm thinking something more like .230/.260/.375, with 18 homers. Okay, so I intentionally picked very low numbers, but we'll just see who comes closer. :)

Of the others, I think only Stewart is a good bet to be pretty far off. For one thing, it would be really bizarre if his AVG, OBP and SLG were both identical to his 2005 numbers. More significantly, I just don't think he's really gotten that bad that fast. It's not like he depends on the kind of skills that fade fast--he did just fine without his speed from 2002-04. I think he'll be healthier this year, and hit something closer to .300 again.

by mandamin on Feb 25, 2006 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed here....

Don't forget it's his contract year as well.

by djskilbr on Feb 25, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Optomistic

I agree with the people who have said this is too optomistic. You have Mauer's power rising VERY fast, Morneau's ability jumping a massive amount, Kubel getting on base at an elite level, Castillo stealing more bases than he has in a couple of years, Batista getting on base and slugging significantly better than he has for many years, Hunter having his best possible season, and Sierra, at age 40, having a HUGE bounceback from last year.

Waaaaaay to much. If the Twins hit like that, they'll win 100 games.

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 26, 2006 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually,

if everyone did as projected I suspect the Twins would win a lot more than 100 games. Given that there will be a few injuries and a couple of these guys won't do what is projected...I trust we will have a very good season, one in which the Twins will again be in the playoffs.

by roger on Feb 26, 2006 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd peg the Twins

for 93-95 games. And if Liriano goes nuts, I wouldn't be surprised at an approach to 100. We are better than a lot of people think.

by djskilbr on Feb 26, 2006 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wins

I don't see the Twins winning more than 92 or 93 games this year. I also don't see them winning less or even as many as they did last year.

I also don't believe that 92 wins won't nessesarily be enough to win this division.

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 26, 2006 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Double Negative Alert!

I just read that post three times - I'm still not sure I completely understand it, but I'm worried I may have an aneurysm if I read it again.

Here's what I got: You think the Twins will win somewhere between 83 (their wins last year) and 93 games, and you think 92 wins should be enough to win the division.

by BeefMaster on Feb 27, 2006 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

I get a headach with that one. But I think you made it as intelligible as can be.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Feb 27, 2006 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AHHHHH!!!

AHH! Terribly poor english alert! Klaxons blare at level 10 for unclear modifiers!

What I mean to say is this:

The Twins wont nto get to less than more of not 83 not losses.

I kid.

I think the Twins will win no more that 93 games ( a number I find fairly likely). I think the Twins will surely win more than last year. I think those 92 or 93 games the team could win this year COULD be enogh to win the division.

SO you guys were not mostly not right.

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 28, 2006 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs