Twins 2007 budget and roster

by cmathewson on Aug 21, 2006 7:18 PM EDT

Over at Aaron's place, we've had a lively discussion about what the Twins should do to the roster for 2007, what they can afford to do, and the gap between them. I thought it would be fun to start a similar discussion over here.

Roster

Before I go into salaries, I want to fold in the debate about what the Twins need. I think they need a solid sixth or seventh hitter to take the DH spot and a veteran starting pitcher to eat innings at the back of the rotation. I also would like to do some infield juggling, bringing in a good young third baseman and shifting Punto to second, with Castillo traded, perhaps with a spare arm or two for that third baseman.

So this is how I envision the line-up next year:

Punto
Bartlett
Mauer
Cuddyer
Morneau
Signed DH
Hunter or replacement
Kubel
New third baseman

There could be some juggling of the last three spots. But that's a solid line-up, assuming the DH and third baseman fit in and Kubel gets his legs under him again.

I'd also like to replace Brad Radke with a proven veteran starter, like a Paul Byrd or Cory Lidle. I'm talking about fourth starter who can eat 200 innings and give the team 20 quality starts. Other than that, I think this team is set on the bench and in the bullpen, assuming it signs Reyes back.

Budget

First I'd like to dispel a popular myth. Remember all the hand wringing last year when the Geek calculated the 2006 budget and determined that there was no room to add a hitter in the off-season?

Well, he based his 2006 budget on the assumption that the Twins would not increase payroll from an estimated $54 million. Lo and behold, the 2006 budget ended up being $63 million. The extra money came from additional revenue streams like mlb.com and XM Radio. So the Twins did add hitters from the free agent market, albeit abject failures Rondell White and Tony Batista. But they also were able to add Luis Castillo and Dennys Reyes after some further salary juggling with J.C. Romero.

This year the Twins will not get additional revenue from XM or mlb.com. That should be flat. But assuming the attendance figures continue as they did in the recent home stand, an estimated increase of 470,000 over 2005, they will get up to $16 million additional dollars from the gate. They also will get some additional revenue from the KSTP radio switch, though that's small and indeterminate at this point.

Of the $16 million, an estimated $12 million could be available over and above the 2006 budget for player salaries. That's an overall budget of $75 million. When you add the increase to the estimated $23 million dollars coming off the books from the likes of Brad Radke, Shannon Stewart, Kyle Lohse, Rondell White, Tony Batista, and Juan Castro, the Twins should be in good enough shape to add an impact bat and a solid starter to an already strong ball club.

What can you do with $33 million? Well, it's not quite $33 million. There are raises, both from arbitration and from players under contract.

Before we get to that, I will make two assumptions. First, the Twins will absorb Torri Hunter's contract. If they choose to buy out his option and acquire a cheaper player, that might save money for other needs. But I will not add that savings into my estimates, at least for now, because it's too indeterminate. In other words, I will assume a worst-case scenario there salary wise.

Second, as I said above I will assume that the Twins will not absorb Luis Castillo's $5.75 million contract next year. I expect them to try to trade him with an extra arm or two for a young third baseman like Andy LaRoche, Willy Aybar, Edwin Encarnacion, or Wilson Betemit.

With those two assumptions, the Twins gain $36 million in payroll flexibility next. Other players under contract set to get raises, according to Cot's Contracts include the following:

Johan Santana: $3 million raise
Joe Nathan: $1.5 million raise
Carlos Silva: $0.8 million raise (assuming option is picked up)
Mike Redmond: $0.1 million raise
Dennys Reyes: $ 2.5 million raise (assuming the Twins sign him, assuming worst case contract)

That eats into the $36 million left, reducing it to $28 million. Then there are the arbitration eligible players, which becomes dicey as far as estimates go. Here I will assume the Twins lose all their cases and do not get any of the 2007 money deferred by long-term contracts. I will also assume that they tender contracts to all arbitration-eligible players (e.g. Lew Ford). Again, this is worst case.

Joe Mauer: $4 million raise
Justin Morneau: $ 4 million raise
Michael Cuddyer: $ 3 million raise
Juan Rincon: $ 2 million raise
Nick Punto: $ 2.5 million raise
Lew Ford, $.5 million raise

That eats into the pot by $16 million, leaving $12 million to divvy up for a hitter, a pitcher. Oddly enough, that's the same money that the Twins gain from increased 2006 attendance. So support your team! But it's really $10 million because you have to give small raises to the nonarbitration-eligible players like Liriano and Bartlett. Still, that's not much, really, considering that a decent starter will cost at least two thirds that. But decent DHs can be had for surprisingly small sums. Consider how little the A's paid Frank Thomas or the Twins paid Rondell White, who at least had good career numbers going into this season.

If they find a decent replacement for Hunter and save money in the process or they save money through long-term contracts for arbitration-eligible players, they can spend more than $2.5 million on a DH. Otherwise, we are looking at a Rondell White/Preston Wilson/Reggie Sanders/Bernie Williams type of player. Best case, they might be able to get Mike Sweeney if they play their cards right. But those who dream of Carlos Lee can keep dreaming, unless the Twins feel they have enough pitching between Silva, Bonsor, Garza, and Baker to fill the last three spots in the rotation without signing an innings eater. I'm not too sure about that. But what are your thoughts?

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Comments

2007 FA Pitchers

Do you have a list of FA SP's for next season? Given the astronomical cost of starting pitching in the free agent market over the last few years, what type of pitcher are we looking at for $7 - $9 million per year? I sure hope it's better than the A's signing of Esteban Loaiza.

by MauerPower on Aug 21, 2006 8:13 PM EDT 0 recs

The more I think about it

The more I think TR will only acquire someone if he's sure that Silva and Bonsor are worse than what's out there. If Silva and Bonsor keep pitching the way they did last time out, he might be satisfied to open the fifth spot to a competition between Garza, Baker, and Durbin in Spring Training. Then he can apply all his available payroll to getting a bona fide bat who can hit cleanup.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 21, 2006 8:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Eric Byrnes

Would be a guy to trade for to play center for Hunter he would cost about 4.5 mil I think he is in arbitration this year when he has seen full time action he has been a .275/.345/.450 player with good enough defence. This might work because arizona will want to make space for Chris Young i'm thinking. Although I just looked and his Primary postion has been Lf I wondering if anyone knows if he can Play Cf for a season?

by FrozenTed9 on Aug 21, 2006 10:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Byrnes

Good call on Byrnes. He's a good center fielder, not as good as a Huner when healthy, but better than Hunter when hurting. And he can hit with some power. He would allow the Twins to save up to four million (counting the option buyout as a sunk cost), which in theory could be used for another bat. And he would make a good platoon partner with Tyner, not that Tyner would hitagainst all righties, but selected righties and with flyball pitchers on the mound.

Another guy I like in the same class is Jay Payton. A good fielder who shows some skill with the stick, though not as much power as Byrnes.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 21, 2006 10:36 PM EDT 0 recs

What should they do? What will they do? 2 queries

I love this stuff, so let me wade in. First. I do not know where you get the money figures re: payroll equating to revenue generated. I assume you have a ratio from somewhere. It sounds high to me, but I don't know. I do not under any circumstances envision this team spending 75 MM on player payroll next year. Period. I would be surprised if they broke 70 MM. Again who knows? But that's my take. So I will work with the 70 MM ceiling which strikes me as a more reasonable balance between the Twins inherent cheapness and more aggressive spending.

I work better with absolute numbers rather than raises so I can see what the heck I'm doing:

SP: Santana (12 M), Silva (4.35 M), Liriano (.4 M) at least one of Baker/Bonser/Garza (.35 M). Need 1 additional P or go with another "youngster". Total committed: 17.1 M

RP: Nathan (5.25M), Rincon (my estimate 2.5 M), Reyes (my estimate 2 M), Crain, Guerrier, Neshek combined for about 1.1 M. May carry a 12th P, but for now let's go with 6. Total committed: 10.85 M

Pitching: 27.95..let's say 28 M

Position players:

Mauer/Morneau: Most likely will receive 4 or 5 year long term deals with money staggered at 4M/7M/9M/11M/12M or something along those lines. For the two in 07: let's say 8 M.

Cuddyer: May get a shorter deal to buy out his arb years, otherwise in arb...he gets 3.5 M. Multi year deal won't raise that number very much in my opinion. 3.5 M total

Kubel (LF or DH), Bartlett as serfs. .75 M combined.

Punto (3b for now): estimate 2.5 M in arbitration. I doubt he gets a longer term deal, maybe some sort of two year option, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. 2.5 M total.

Castillo's option sticks with them until/unless he is moved. 5.75 M

No DH. Yet.

Hunter's option will be picked up at 12 MM and I imagine he will not be traded, though a trade will certainly be explored. 8 starters total 26.5 MM

Bench: Redmond .9 M, Tyner 1.25 M, Ford 1.5 M, LRod or Tiffee .35 M, 'fifth' bench player will be a serf, either a 12th pitcher or a 5th position player (e.g. Tiffee OR Durbin/Eyre) so figure another .35 for that spot. 5 bench guys at...4.5 M (we'll round up).

So I've got 59 MM with 23 players, lacking a DH and a starting pitcher, including Hunter and Castillo.

Hunter and Castillo would certainly be trade bait, but what can they get in return? I would trade them both, if I could get reasonable value. My guess: the Twins will trade neither. They will obtain a Craig WIlson type at 10 MM/2 seasons for the DH spot and a Cory Lidle type for...let's guess 12 MM/2 seasons adding 11 MM to my figure, reaching 70 MM total (gee, nice how that works out) and you'll have this lineup for 07:

Castillo/Mauer/Hunter/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel/Wilson/Punto/Bartlett with a bench of Red, LRod, Ford and Tyner. Not bad, but not optimal.

Pitchers: Santana, Silva, Liriano, Garza/Bonser/Baker, Lidle type
Nathan, Rincon, Neshek, Guerrier, Crain, Reyes, Durbin/W.Eyre. Should work reasonably well with two 'options' in AAA for injuries/poor performances. I do not think Terry Ryan will go with Silva, Bonser and a third from Garza/Baker/Durbin. It's too risky and against everything Ryan has done over the past five years. Not saying he shouldn't try it, but he won't. I won't believe it even if I see it.

Is this what I'd do? No. I want to trade Hunter/Castillo and spend the money elsewhere...But am I being reasonable? In my opinion, what the Twins need more than any other commodity is
the "big right handed bat" to slot between the two big left handed hitters. Cuddyer isn't quite adequate. Hunter certainly isn't, nor would a Craig Wilson esque 5 - 6 MM acquisition be the right hitter. BUT. There are by my count only two guys on the free agent market who qualify for that status....Lee and Soriano. The Twins COULD afford either, if they moved Hunter and/or Castillo, but in my opinion it will be a cold day in hades before they do such a thing. Plus after 08 the money situation begins to be a big strain even with additional revenue/assumption of more money with the advent of the new park. Terry Ryan simply will not take that type of risk. The question is, "should he?" I say "Yes" but I ain't handling Carl's money...

Priority one this off season may actually be....Johan Santana. He's got two years left on his deal, but if they do not extend his contract this year, I believe he is gone after 2008. Market value for Johan in 2009? Try 20 MM a season for five years. You don't think the Yankees wouldn't pony up that much? Only hope of keeping him in my humble opinion, is to extend his contract in this offseason adding two more years at 15 MM per to re-establish a four year contract at...55.5M if my math is correct, or he will walk in 2009.

by HrbekIsMyHero on Aug 21, 2006 10:42 PM EDT 0 recs

What happens

What happens next year depends largely on a number of decisions which i'm not sure where Ryan falls. Does he try and move Castillo for a third baseman and move Punto over or not? Does Silva return? What will happen with Hunter?

I'm not sure that hte Twins will make THAT much more in ticket sales, but it would be nice.

I do think, though, that next season is the year o absolutly go for broke. It migh tbe our last year with Hunter, we'll have santana, Liriano, and Garza out there. Kubel will have his chance to recover again. Mauer and morneau are coming ff break out years, but still affordable. bartlett has emerged with respect. We wont lose a single meaningful piece of our GODLIKE bullpen (in fact, it may get better if a better version of Eyre and/or Crain is found). Even when we were way back this year, i felt next year we could have the best team in years, but now that I've seen what some of the Tyenr's, Bartlett's, Nesheks, and others can do, I feel like we could win over 100 games pretty easily with a couple small moves.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 21, 2006 10:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Free Agents.....

A list of ALL potential free-agents, not counting the guys that will be released or not offered contracts, can be found at:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/possible-free-agents.html

I totally expect Reyes and Tyner will play the field. The Twins will have to make a ahrd decision of Lew Ford.

Torii Hunter will be the key. If he goes, everything goes haywire!

by twintown on Aug 22, 2006 11:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Castillo

"Twins will not absorb Luis Castillo's $5.75 million contract next year. I expect them to try to trade him with an extra arm or two for a young third baseman like Andy LaRoche, Willy Aybar, Edwin Encarnacion, or Wilson Betemit."

Good post, but I take issue with your Castillo prediction, and the belief that he has been "disappointing." Castillo has been a disappointment only if you thought he would put up the same numbers this year that he did when he was 28 and had good legs. The shelf-life for second basemen is short, and they tend to fall off quickly (see Robbie Alomar). But Ryan knew what he was getting with Castillo, and he has stabalized the position, which is what the Twins needed.

And if he has been disappointing and is on the back side of his career, what makes you think that other teams want him and his bloated salary AND want to give the Twins a solid prospect? Something seems amiss here.

The Twins will keep Castillo and his contract because there will be little market for him, they cannot really count on another career year for Nick Punto, and there are not enough infield prospects in the system to justify trading away depth.

by wcooley on Aug 22, 2006 12:10 PM EDT 0 recs

Some GMs...

...favor guys like Castillo. Jocketty, Sabean, and Colletti, for example. I wouldn't put it past Krivsky to take a play for him either, especially the way Aurillia is playing at third. And Henry also is the type of guy who favors veterans. They might say his knees will probably be better after offseason surgery and rehab, and he can value from getting back on grass everyday.

I don't think he's been a disapointment, except for one month of the season (June). The other four months, he's been what I expected, except for his defense, which I liken to Rivas--not good enough. And really, it's kind of like the Hunter critique: They are both important cogs to this team this year, but they are not earning their money and we can't afford to pay what their contracts call for next year considering there are better and cheaper alternatives avaialble either on the FA market (CF) or in house (2B).

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 12:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good points

I'm mostly just speaking to the fallacy (or wishful thinking) that sometimes circulates on blogs and boards that the Twins' refuse (Lew Ford, Michael Restovich, Kyle Lohse) can be turned into gold by duping other GM's. I really don't think the return or the cost savings on Castillo will justify Ryan dumping him and leaving another gaping hole in the infield.

by wcooley on Aug 22, 2006 12:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

To be clear

I would not trade Castillo unless the deal netted a third baseman who can play next year. So you don't open a hole in the infield, you just shift Punto to second and put the new third baseman in there.

If Ryan can't do a deal like that, he should just let it ride with Punto at third and Castillo at second. That means almost no room for a veteran bat or arm, though.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 1:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Projecting Punto

Who wants to project Nick Punto's line for next year?

current in 96 games: .316/.400/.418
2005 in 112 games: .239 .301 .335
career: .264/.336/.354

my guess for 2007: 100 games, .280/.350/.400

I just don't have much faith in Punto staying healthy or putting up his current numbers. He's made nice adjustments, but now pitchers should adjust to him.

by wcooley on Aug 22, 2006 2:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

That line

would be about league average for a second baseman, but barely replacement level for a third baseman. It's about what Castillo is giving us, except for the slugging. Anther argument for using the only veteran arrow in our quiver to get a third baseman who could give us league average production at third base.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 4:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Except that

I don't think Punto can stay healthy for a whole year, so you need depth, and I don't think that Castillo can fetch a talented young third baseman through a trade. The Twins are just not in a position to be dealing position players because there is nothing waiting in the wings. Hunter and Castillo will not bring in much talent that is MLB-ready, so if either is traded it will be more about dumping salary and looking for cheaper free-agents. And do you trust Terry Ryan in that position? Batista? Castro? Otis Nixon?

by wcooley on Aug 22, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not by himself

Can Castillo fetch a third baseman, but with an arm or two thrown in, perhaps he can. And the Twins are not barren of all talent that can serve as a utlity player. Luis Rodriguez, Gil Valezquez, Luis Maza, even Tommy Watkins woud serve for how little they would be needed. And Tolbert and Casilla are not far behind. Plus, veteran ultility guys are a dime a dozen. We're not looking for someone who can provide much production, just someone who can catch the ball and run a little.

Considering what Castillo brings, it makes little sense to pay him 8 percent of the team's salary next year. Other teams might be able to afford it, but the Twins surely cannot. That money would be better spent on middle of the order production and back of the rotation innings.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 23, 2006 12:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

So Who's On Second

What teams out there would be like the Twins were, going into '06, in search of a second sacker with experience?

If push came to shove, msot teams would probably rather try and trade for Punto than Luis. Think about it.

Too often we start to think that trades need to be made in which we get rid of guys that in all liklihood no one else wants. I'm sure the lack of any waiver claims on Castillo this year will show just how much he is worth to other teams. Yes, you would have to package him with a delightful prospect, preferably a pitcher or two.

by twintown on Aug 23, 2006 8:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

I

I'm not so sure. I think there are a number of teams with apropriate third baseman who would jump on this kind of deal, knowing hteir history.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 23, 2006 9:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

Two Options

LA: Jeff Kent is an FA and would make a better first baseman. They have Betemit and LaRoche vying for a job next year. One of those guys should be available. Since Coletti likes veterans, it would be LaRoche.
Cincinatti: Aurillia has played very well at third, making few opportunities for Encarnacion to play. Krivsky likes veterans and pushed for Castillo in the first place.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 23, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's a nice thought

but Ryan does not productive trade guys under contract unless he has an immediate back-up in the system, and he doesn't trade young arms either. Look for Ryan to try his best for a righty bat in the free agent market again, and pray that it is better than White or Batista.

by wcooley on Aug 23, 2006 10:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Counterpoints

Point of order
When you say: "Ryan doesn't do this or Ryan doesn't do that," there is usually a counter example. You can say, "Ryan tends not to do this or he rarely does that." But that weakens your point. The fact is, Ryan does not make a lot of trades relative to his counterparts. So we're necessarily talking about small sample sizes. And the shape of the organization is changing, which gives him more flexibility to make the kind of deals he might have been reluctant to make in the past. If it makes sense for the team to do something, Ryan is creative enough and smart enough to try it.

Counter-examples:

1. immediate backups in the system: Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez, Luis Maza, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert

The Twins are pretty deep at second base. Rodriguez has always played well when given regular starts. If you went with him as your depth behind Punto, you could sign someone like Vizcaino or Hairston for a little more than the minimum to be the utility guy. Maza is having a down year, but he's had a very productive career and would be an upgrade with the glove over Castillo. Casilla is the Twins future second baseman. How soon he's ready is a question. But remember Ryan traded Pierzinski after Mauer's AA season. Tolbert has been added to the AFL roster for a reason. He will make his Twins debut sometime during the 2007 season.

2. Young arms: Bowyer and Tyler for Castillo.

Ryan hasn't had this kind of depth in young arms since he became GM. It's geting to the point where it's really hard to protect all the prospects on the 40-man roster. I would not be surprised if the Twins lost three or four arms, either though waiver claims after they removed them from the 40-man to make room for better prospects, or through the Rule 5 draft. It makes sense to try to trade a couple of the guys currently on the 40 man if you anticipate losing them through waivers anyway.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 23, 2006 12:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

So right.....

You can argue the need for keeping Rodriguez, except that he does play better when he plays more...and the Twins do have depth in the "utility" rile with Gil and Watkins, not to mention Maza. And Tolbert is being groomed to maybe make the jump to the club as a switch-hitting reserve infielder.

The question is: can Ryan find a third baseman (real one) and pay him on the free agent market.

Again, alot depends on what happens with Torii Hunter and if the Twins need to replace him in centerfield. I do know it premature to take Torii out of the defensive picture, but wouldn't he make a great "most of the time" centerfielder and being a designated hitter more than he has been in the past, leaving room to groom someone else for the future centerfield position. Of have Torii also play left/right at times. Then the Twins would just need a capable left-handed bat out of the DH hole, and a third baseman going into next season, basically.

I would still love to see Garrett Jones face some major league pitching to see if he is truly overmatched. I keep thinking he could be the part-time bomber off the bench, as well as play a little first base (or right field). I hate to give up on him totally and let him drift to Brian Buchanan, Dave McCarthy, Paul Sorrento land.

by twintown on Aug 23, 2006 12:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Part Time

There is no such thing as a part time bomber, in my opinion. Anyone who can consistantly hit well with power finds a way into starting lineups.

ut I assume by bomber, you mean abut a Durazo or Leroy anyway.

Also, wcooley, I think you are bit pessemistic about the chances of making a trade. While Ryan may not do it, and it may not be possible, there seem to be a number of intriguging possibnilities moving Castllo and one or two of SEVERAl arsm we wil likely lose anyway to a team for a third baseman. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got Edwin Encarnacion for baker and castillo. People have suggeted trading baker for thngs for over a year, and I havn't been in favor of it, but I'd do it for encarnacion. He is a very good young player. There are a number of other options out there as well.

Frankly, gettin a plus third baseman and moving Punto from a solid starter at third to an elite second baseman WHILE potentially even saving money makes too uch sense to be ignored. Im my mind, it would be the final offseason piece that would make the Twins possibly baseball's best team. After that, the Twins could consider not optioning Hunter and using that 10 mil (along with any gained in dropping castillo) to sign a Kenny lofton or Mike Cameron type (both could prpbobly be aquire for a 1 year deal worht aroun 4-7 mil) and any remaining money on a starter (if enough is left) or a couple interesting role players, or as leverage money to sign a guy liek Mauer or Morneau to a long term deal that doesn't cost us quite as much the last year (we'd give it to them now while we have the extra cash).

Also, jeff Cirillo is out there. his offensive numbers are very close to Punto's this year, and he has a track record of puting out those numbers more or less every year for his entire career. We would still have Punto's level of produciton at third, but get an upgrade over Castillo at second in Punto, and save money in the process (Cirillo is finishing up a 1 year, .85 million dollar deal right now).

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 23, 2006 1:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd love your optimism

and I know you've been fishing for that young third baseman to fill the gap for the Twins for some time. But as you say, Ryan doesn't make many trades, nor do teams look to dump young third basemen for somebody else's overpriced veteran on the way down. Based on past history and these facts, my prediction is that both Castillo and Hunter are back with the team next year. But it's fun to dream.

by wcooley on Aug 23, 2006 4:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Reyes

According to LEN3, the Twins are trying to sign Reyes to a two-year deal. I expect that to get done before free agency. Tyner will not ask for much, and I expect them to sign him as the fourth outfielder for next year. I also expect them to nontender Lew, unless he gets hot the last month. He has not made the adjustments at the plate to keep up with the league's adjustments. If you could put Rabe's bat and Lew's glove on a guy, he would be the everyday left fielder. But Rabe is a poor fielder and Lew is a poor hitter. Tyner is good enough at both to fill in at all three outfield positions and pinch run.

Did anyone see Cameron's triple on ESPN last night? I found myself saying "we could really use that guy in center." I'm not so sure Torii has ever ran that fast. And I know he's lost a step or two, even after his ankle and foot get healthy.

So the way it looks, there will be four viable right-handed hitting center fielders on the FA market if the Twins buy out Hunter's option: Byrnes, Payton, Cameron, and Hunter. Matthews will also be there. Of the five, Matthews will probably get the richest contract. But I would be surprised if any of them get $10 million a year, which is what it would cost the Twins to pick up Hunter's option, considering his buyout a sunk cost.

When you look around the league, you see fewer than five openings for those five guys. So I think the chances are good the Twins will buy out his option and get one of the five. It could be Hunter, but they will not pay $12 million for an injury risk when there are four other guys who are comparable and would come cheaper.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 12:17 PM EDT 0 recs

Cameron...

...is absolutely one of the best fielding CF in the league, wheels or no wheels. He's great at getting reads off the bat and runs great routes. Pretty much everyone else has to track the ball from when it comes off the bat until it's in their glove.

But I'm pretty sure that's why San Diego wanted him to patrol the spacious confines of Petco Park. I imagine it'd be pretty tough to pry him from the Padres, as he has a $7M club option for 2007 that the Padres are almost certain to exercise.

by ubelmann on Aug 22, 2006 1:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

Again

Again, IF we were to sign a replacement center fielder, it would have to be a one year deal. that puts Mathew right out. We COULd however get Byrnes (I would love this), and probobly Cameron. Also, Keny Lofton and his .390 OBP s still our there fro the left side of the plate. he was had for abotu 4 mil this year.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 23, 2006 1:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

Change trying to did.

According to LEN III, Reyes signed a 2 year deal worth $2 m. It's an even split - 1 mil per year.

http://www.startribune.com/509/story/633852.html

by GACTwinFan on Aug 24, 2006 4:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

good

News For the Twins one Less hole to Try and Fill in the Offseason Hopefully he will good next year too.

by FrozenTed9 on Aug 24, 2006 5:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Radke

I know Radke has said that he is retiring, but if I was Ryan I would have a little talk with him at the end of the season. Let him know how much he has meant to this ball club over the years and that we have a lot of young pitchers coming in next year. If I were Ryan I would want to know if Radke would consider a Clemens type of deal with the Twins. Take spring training off and maybe have yourself ready to pitch going into May when you need to have a 5th starter. After a long offseason Radke may just start thinking about wanting to come back when spring comes around and if he did decide his arm felt good I would want it to be with the Twins so I would hope Ryan would just plant that idea.

richman

by anderson800 on Aug 22, 2006 1:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Radke has been clear...

...if he is going to pitch beyond this year he will need surgery. From what I have read, the surgery would require a 9 month to 1 year rehab, so if he did decide to play another year...it would be a year of rehab in 2007 and then play in 2008. With that facing him, BRadke has been fairly clear that he prefers to go fishing, play with the kids, etc. which he expects to be able to do without the surgery.

by roger on Aug 22, 2006 1:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

5 right handed options in CF?

As stated, Cameron is staying with the Padres for 7 M. Not a tough call for them.

Jay Payton. Somewhat adequate in the corner defensively, not a CF anymore in my opinion. This season to date 291/318 (ugh)429/747 essentially in line with career norms. Paid 4 M this year. Probably going to get 5 M +- next season. Possible, but he'll have plenty of other suitors which probably drives the price up even farther and there's not much upside to the numbers cited.

Eric Byrnes. Interesting "comeback" year. Will have just over 5 years service time after the season. Gained FA status because he was non tendered. Doesn't AZ now hold his 3rd year arb rights by signing him? This year .277/334/506/840. Not bad at all. 2.25 M this season. But I'm thinking AZ has the arb option. If not, he may be a hot commodity and he may be a pig in a poke. This is the guy who couldn't crack the Mendoza line in either league in 05. Not a TR type gamble.

Gary Matthews, Jr. Too lazy to look up the numbers. Wrong side of 30. WIll get money similar to Hunter's contract as the top FA option in CF. Bet Boston will be sniffing around.

That leaves....tah dah...Torii. I've said I'm not wedded to the guy, but I do not see Ryan moving him or buying out the option. When given any kind of options like this, Ryan will almost always stay with what he knows.

I stand by my prediction: Castillo and Hunter stay. They buy Craig Wilson and Corey Lidle or reasonable facsimiles thereof and call it a day. The offseason suspense will last 9 days. This is how Terry Ryan does things. The mere thought of dumping Hunter and Castillo would force him to gamble on a new 3b, new CF and pay huge money for a DH. This is beyond his comfort level and I don't think he has it in him to roll the dice in that manner.

by HrbekIsMyHero on Aug 22, 2006 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Not always

When given any kind of options like this, Ryan will almost always stay with what he knows.

Counterexamples: Cristian Guzman, Joe Mays

That said, $2 million is a bitter pill to pay for a player who will not play for you. Guzman and Mays both had $750,000 options. And neither was of the quality of Hunter. But neither woul cost $10 million after the sunk $2 million cost.

On comfort levels: I would hope that the Twins have learned something this year. Namely, you don't rely on washed-up veterans just becasue you're more comfortable with them than with younger, more talented players.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 4:42 PM EDT 0 recs

FA

If I'm not mistaken, both Guzie and Mays were allowed to leave via free agency, and were not traded. Castillo and Hunter are under contract. Ryan seems to prefer the draft pick compensation to the salary-dump trade.

by wcooley on Aug 22, 2006 7:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Am I missing something?

In your original post, you stated one of your assumptions is that they pick up Hunter's option. But then you didn't figure his raise for next year. Isn't he making $10M this year, meaning he will have a $2M raise if they pick up the option?

by adam on Aug 22, 2006 4:42 PM EDT 0 recs

Yes that's right

I figured on a $2 million raise. In actuality, it's only $1.25 million becaus he's making $10.75 million this year. But I said if they want to sign a big bat or a decent fourth starter, they might need to buy out hisoption and settle for a lesser, cheaper CF.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 22, 2006 4:52 PM EDT 0 recs

'07

So if we go with youngsters instead of overrated vets, who might crack the roster in '07....

Pitching: Garza, Baker, Bonser, Barrett, Durbin, Slowey, harben, Simonitsch, Miller...

Hitters: Velazquez, Romero, Span, Rabe, Oeltjen, Casilla, Deeds, Moses...

by twintown on Aug 22, 2006 5:14 PM EDT 0 recs

What I would like

A few things:

I would love to move Castillo to get a young, slugging 3B. But wcooley is right - that ain't gonna happen. We won't be able to get that much for him, plus, as others have stated, I just don't see TR wanting to shake things up like that. Especially the way things are going these days. Rarely does he look at what is good and try to make it better - he identifies blatant weaknesses and tries to fix them with the highest bang-for-the-buck option that fits within his budget. Other than that, he counts on development of young guys to improve his team (or he stands pat).

Concerning Hunter what I would love to see happen is this: I would love for the last 6 weeks of the season to show that his ankle/foot are still recovering and can get back to his previous form (or close to it) in the outfield. Then I would love for the parties to rip up the contract and come up with a deal that keeps him a Twin for the rest of his career. I would say his actual worth is in the $8-9M range and am hoping the Twins offer him something like this. It seems clear that he could get much more than this on the FA market. On the other hand, he has said he would like to remain a Twin and be around to play in the new park. I would also like the contract offered by the team to be front-loaded (4yrs - 10,9,8,7 perhaps?). This would be unusual (as far as I am aware), but is the kind of contract that makes more sense to offer somebody at this stage of his career. And after all, who would say no to more money up front? If the Twins' offer includes 1) the opportunity to finish his career as a Twin, 2) the opportunity to play in the new stadium, 3) more money in the first couple of years, just maybe such a deal would be possible. Still, I highly doubt it. It's just what makes sense to me. A risky, but acceptable (to me) alternative would be to go into next year with Tyner in CF.

I also wouldn't mind the folks we've already got for the rotation. Assuming Garza keeps making even the least bit of progress, he seems to me a virtual lock for the rotation next year.

I, too, would like us to lock up Santanna for more years. When I heard we had signed him to 4yrs $40M, my first thought was why wasn't it 5yrs $50M or 6yrs $60M? I also hope we can lock up both Mauer and Morneau - for as long a contract as they are willing (within a decent price range, of course) and maybe even Cuddyer.

by adam on Aug 22, 2006 5:39 PM EDT 0 recs

not to quibble

Cmeth: Not sure what you mean about Guzman and Mays as counter examples to the point that Ryan usually goes with what he knows. Maybe I missed your point. Guzy was a free agent. Mays was also. Neither Hunter nor Castillo will be free agents (except obviously if THunter is bought out). Quite the contrary, I think your counterexamples prove my point. The Twins stayed with Mays longer than many of us believed they should have, Guzman played out his contract and I doubt anyone other than that idiot from Washington would have given him the deal he got. Laughs.

Not saying Ryan can't change, but he is LOATHE and I do mean LOATHE to give up a player he has under contract or who has remaining options. That's why I don't see Hunter going anywhere unless he gets one heck of a trade offer which I don't see coming from anyone else out there.

As always we shall see. What is everyone's take on the story in the PiPress that "sources close to Torii say he will NOT take a reduced contract amount for 2007?" Negotiation ploy, big ego talking, or just Torii being Torii? Refusal to even bargain with Ryan might be the only impetus strong enough to get Terry to part company with "the face of the franchise."

by HrbekIsMyHero on Aug 22, 2006 6:15 PM EDT 0 recs

I Just

Thought of something That might affect your Numbers Cmath. The Yankees start building their new stadium this year and this means that they will not be contributing to Revenue Sharing, which could cut into the Twins Money quite a bit. FYI I can't find out if it's this year there stop contributing or the year they start playing in it but when ever it starts it's Five years that they don't half to pay into Revenue sharing.

by FrozenTed9 on Aug 23, 2006 12:25 AM EDT 0 recs

Twins should trade for Coco Crisp

Hello,
I think the should trade for Coco Crisp. He's had a rough year, but
this is Boston where everything is magnified 10 times. As in the case
of Edgar Renteria.
Crisp showcased his offensive talent by batting .297 and .300,
respectively, with 31 total home runs. In 2005 he was fifth in the
American league with 42 doubles, and led the league in sacrifice hits
with 13. He's only 26 years old and his salary is quite reasonable It
was also reported that Torii Hunter won't take pay cut.
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/sports/columnists/charley_wa...

If I were Terry Ryan, I'd tell clubs that we are going to resign Hunter
and that we'll only trade if the deal is right. We could do a deal
with Boston or a 3 way deal with a national league team that has
pitching. Of course we would want more than Coco Crisp for Hunter and
would have to see who's available. But I think Coco Crisp + Someone +
= Hunter
Perhaps Terry Ryan should try and get one star for Hunter, but who?
That's a good fit for our budget and age wise. Well, what does
everyone else think? Your feedback is welcomed

MagikLair

by MagikLair on Aug 23, 2006 6:05 PM EDT 0 recs

Um

I wouldn't really want Cocoa crisp. he isn't so hot defensivly in center.

"Baseball is great because you can't take a knee or kill the clock. You have to put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn chance." C Stengel

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 23, 2006 6:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes, your right he's not the best in center

Left field may be a better choice. I think it's an interesting opportunity, if the price is right. Hunter is not going to give the Twins a hometown break, so it's unlikely he'd return. We'll see what happens...
MagikLair

by MagikLair on Aug 24, 2006 3:34 PM EDT 0 recs

No Discount...

At the worst, the Twins can pick up the option and try to trade Hunter again next season, barring an injury, anytime when the opportunity might benefit them.

It's a gamble, but.....

by twintown on Aug 24, 2006 9:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Update for Reyes

I looked at the market for domianant situational lefties when I estimated that Reyes would make $3 million next year. Because he's been signed to a $1 million contract, the Twins will save $2 million and can use that on another player or pitcher.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Aug 25, 2006 7:59 AM EDT 0 recs

I'll weigh in on this briefly...

since it's one of my favorite subjects as well. I agree that we should be looking to deal Castillo and Hunter both if possible.

Hunter should go for a stopgap 3b (I think at least one of Winfree/Valencia/Robbins will be ready by 2009) and pitching prospects. Castillo should also go for further highend prospects, shifting Punto to 2b.

My two trade scenarios are to two teams who have excess at the positions the Twins need the most help at longterm, CF/DH/3b, and need what the Twins have the most, young SP. Those two teams in my view are the Royals and the D'Backs. Some move should be made for either Chris Young (since the D'Backs have Justin Upton following behind him who will almost assuredly push him out, with Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez at the corner OF spots) or for some package of Teahan/Shealy/DeJesus, all of whom are expendable with the other options the Royals have. Some package should be able to get done on either front.

All of the above are cheap as well, giving the Twins the ability to either sign whatever they don't get (power RH DH for example) or either retain Radke or go for even more pitching with a Randy Wolf-type acquisition (great fit in my view, undervalued in the market after TJ, great stuff for R.A. to mold).

My ideal Twins' lineup goes something like this:

Chris Young-CF (pitching prospects dealt to D'Backs from Castillo/Hunter deals)-minimum
Jason Kubel-LF--minimum
Joe Mauer-C-arb. figure or longterm deal figure-figure on $3 million or so
Carlos Lee-DH (FA) $14-15 million per
Justin Morneau-1b-see Mauer--same
Michael Cuddyer-RF (Parmelee taking over in a few years)-$4 million (arb figure)
Mark Teahan or similar stopgap 3b (Winfree/Valencia/Robbins taking over in a few years) (obtained from Hunter deal or by trading excess pitching prospects)-no more than $2 million
Jason Bartlett-SS-minimum
Nick Punto-2b (Casilla taking over by the end of 2007)-low arb. figure-$1 million?
Bench: Redmond, Tyner, 2 power bats, LRod or other middle infielder--total of $4 million
Total Offense: $34 million

Staff:
Liriano-minimum
Santana-$13 million
Garza-minimum
Randy Wolf-type-$5 million
Bonser/Baker, with Slowey in the wings--minimum
Pen: same pen--cost of $10 million max
Total staff: $30 million

That's a team budget of $64 million roughly. I'd roll with that team.

by djskilbr on Sep 7, 2006 8:23 PM EDT 0 recs