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Roll On 30

Just a few thoughts on Torii's solid year.

This has been a season to remember for the Minnesota Twins, full of great stories, be it from a team or individual angle.  Young players have developed and are identifying their roles for the future.  Journeymen, backups and no-names have taken turns playing hero.  Players who are defined by greatness, heart and talent and lived up to and exceeded expectations.  As a whole, the stories and exploits are endless.

When this season ends, and it won't end before October 1, it will be one of the greatest summers for baseball for the Twins and their fans in many years.  Torii Hunter's 2006 has been a career year on many levels, and considering the circumstances surrounding his season, it's just been one hell of a season.

The Contract Thing

It's a familiar topic, one most of us are tired of debating.  At least I am.  In about a month we're going to have about 5 months to rip the issue to shreds in every way imaginable, but for right now I'm content to enjoy the playoffs before the rehashing begins.  All the same, the contract debacle has been a backdrop in Hunter discussions for quite some time.

This year Torii is earning a paycheck that's roughly 1/6th of the team salary.  In the grand scheme of baseball, $10.75 million isn't an outrageous salary, but it's all relative.  In spite of having good offense for a center fielder and having great defense over the years, the money has been a question in the later years of Hunter's contract because of the holes in Torii's game.  Strikeouts, impatience and not being "clutch" at the plate were some of the more obvious issues.  Although a player earning $10.75 million in New York or Boston or Los Angeles will be expected to be a good player, in Minnesota he is expected to be an All Star.  This means that good offense and Gold Glove defense aren't good enough, and when it was proven that Hunter wasn't a premier offensive threat that could anchor the middle of the order, the large back-end of his contract came under even more scrutiny.

Bum Ankle

Although the signs seem to be slowly dissipating now, throughout most of the early parts of the year it appeared Hunter's 2005 ankle injury was playing some role in inhibiting his play.  It wasn't blatant, but it was clear he wasn't the same player.  When it happened again and Hunter returned to the lineup earlier than initially projected, it was even more obvious, particularly in the field.  Not only were balls falling in the outfield, but his aggressiveness on the basepaths diminished as well.  Combine the issues of the ankle with a relatively large contract, and Hunter wasn't being viewed in a very positive light.

Early Season Struggles

As late as May 3, Hunter was hitting under .200.  The stigma that heiled Hunter as a streaky player, whose hot and cold streaks were supposed to define him, was playing itself to be true as he could collect 14 hits in a week as easily as he could collect 1.  Even though those hot streaks made Torii quite attractive, through April and May it certainly seemed as though the cold streaks were more than prevalent; they were the rule and not the exception.

So, here is what you had:  an injured player who was already overpaid was underperforming.  That's the formula for trouble.*

The Arrival of Torii Hunter

This is the first season that has finally seen surroundings that form to Torii Hunter's skill set...as opposed to trying to form Torii Hunter's skill set to the surroundings.  As hokey as it sounds, it's true.  The results of Torii not having to be the first or second-ranked offensive threat in the order have given him the following numbers for this season. For comparison, 2002 (considered his all-around career season offensively) and his career-best numbers in every category since becoming a full time player, are also included.

Year     Avg   Obp   Slg  HR  RBI  2B  SB  BB   K
2002    .289  .334  .524  29   94  37  23  35 118
2006    .279  .338  .488  29   93  20  11  44 103
Best    .289  .338  .524  29  102  37  23  50 101
Career  .269  .323  .462

At 31 years of age, Hunter's face is still the most recognizeable by the national media outside of Santana.  At 31 years of age, Hunter doesn't have to carry the offensive burdens of the team for the first time.  At 31 years of age, Hunter is on the thresh-hold of his best season as a professional baseball player.  He'll probably hit 30 home runs, probably set a career mark for OBP, has appeared to temper his aggressive approach to every at-bat and has an outside shot at reaching 100 RBI for the second time in his career.  His batting average, OBP and SLG will all top career averages.

It isn't the numbers on their own that give 2006 such a satisfying edge to Hunter's year.  What makes Torii's story for the season are the things that were playing against him earlier in the year; even for most of the year, in the case of the injury.  A bum ankle, ongoing contract ballyhoo, early offensive struggles...it's been a tough year.  Many were even calling for Hunter's head in center field, and rightfully so.

Right now, things are getting better.  Hunter's cold streaks haven't lasted more than a couple of days, as evidenced by a batting average that has stabilized between .267 and .280 since July 31.  At the same time, his hot streaks have been shorter, but more frequent.  Whether it's just a sign of the fairytale season, or whether it's the result of a less aggressive approach at the plate, it's hard to say...but he looks good.  Defensively, the range has improved since August and Torii seems to be more himself with his glove.  It won't surprise me if he takes home a sixth consecutive Gold Glove.

With 14 homers since August 18, with a line of .323/.337/.604 in September, with his role on the team making both sides better, Hunter is poised to help lead the Twins into October.  While it's many guys, not just Torii, who are having great years and making plays, Hunter's successes may have come in the face of the most adversity.

While Torii Hunter can be a guy you love to hate, for any number of reasons, you know he comes to win.  He brings it all, he wants to be there when it counts, and you have to love him for that.  31, I've decided, isn't old.  Roll on 30.

* The official equation for trouble  is 8/X^0.6, where X is the number of times J.C. Romero allowed inherited runners to score last week.

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Foot and ankle
Good balanced analysis, Jesse. Just one quibble: The real injury problem for Huner came when he broke his foot when he tripped going back on a line drive off the bat of David Ortiz in the Metrodome (the same game in which Ortiz hit the speaker). He struggled some with the ankle early in the year, but that did not have much impact on his fielding, except for perhaps speed.

As LEN3 wrote yesterday, the stress fracture in the foot (the injury that forced him onto the DL) has forced him to run on the heels of his feet, which makes it really tough to track balls on the run. When he runs on the balls of his feet, he can keep his head steady and judge the flight of balls better as he chases them down. When he can't keep his head still because he's running on his heels, he loses track of how balls are carrying and slicing or hooking.

The ankle affected his speed and perhaps his jumps on balls to some extent. Though, as I have said, he made the best catch of his career before the foot injury, when he raced 130 feet from the right-center gap to the left center gap to make a tumbling backhanded catch of a Maglio Ordonez drive just off the turf.

It seems he came back too early from the foot injury, because it was obviously not healed for at least a month after he came off the DL. But it appears to be healing especially with 11 days off the Metrodome turf on the recent road trip. He has made a few dazzling plays recently, which give me optimism that he's over the hump and can provide the kind of defense we expect for the playoffs this year, and certainly next year.

Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Sep 25, 2006 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Hunter's September surge...
Hunter's recent production has certainly been nice, but his September numbers seem pretty fluky to me.  8 HR and 13 SO against just 2 BB?  I wouldn't be too surprised if he has to start walking some more to keep this us.  Even for Hunter, this is a ridiculously low walk rate.

He does look much, much better in the field the last week or so.  If Gardy has any sense at all, Hunter will be getting a break from the turf in the middle of our seven game homestand, whether it's in the DH spot or on the bench.  I think the foot's getting better, but we shouldn't press our luck too much here.

I can see a reasonable case for keeping Hunter next year, but I would certainly be listening if other GMs are making real offers for him.

by ubelmann on Sep 25, 2006 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

It would be interesting...
... to graph his K/BB rates against his HR rates over his career. I have a hunch he's one of those anomolous cases of a guy whose HR rate goes up when his K/BB rate goes up. In other words, the more aggressive he is, the more HRs he hits. If someone were, you know, mathematically inclined, it would make an interesting study...
Joe Mauer for MVP.

by cmathewson on Sep 25, 2006 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing here...
...is that his strikeout rate really hasn't gone up much, either, so it's tough to say he's really being very much more aggressive.  The data could be indicating that when he gets pitches in the strike zone, he can hit them over the fence, but when they are out of the strike zone, he tends to flail at them and get himself out.  (And at least to some observers, that generally fits his approach.)

Anyway, if I'm a Yankees pitcher, I'm not looking to throw Hunter very many strikes because he hasn't shown the willingness to take a walk lately, and plate discipline is his weakest point as a hitter.

I have little doubt that Hunter hits more HR when he's being more aggressive, the question then becomes how many more HR does he hit, and at the cost of how many outs.

by ubelmann on Sep 25, 2006 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not math-tastic, but...

Year  AB  HR   BB  K    ab/hr      k/bb
1997  0    0   0   0    #DIV/0!   #DIV/0!
1998  17   0   2   6    #DIV/0!   3
1999  384  9   26  72   42.66667  2.769231
2000  336  5   18  68   67.2      3.777778
2001  564  27  29  125  20.88889  4.310345
2002  561  29  35  118  19.34483  3.371429
2003  581  26  50  106  22.34615  2.12
2004  520  23  40  101  22.6087   2.525
2005  372  14  34  65   26.57143  1.911765
2006  531  29  44  103  18.31034  2.340909



I'm at work, so this is the best I could do....draw your conclusions - I need to get back to employment...

by GACTwinFan on Sep 25, 2006 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hunter's Option
I can't imagine the Twins not picking up his option for next year. The real question is whether they try to extend him. My guess is they will make some effort but that Hunter's price is going to be too high.

by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 25, 2006 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm sure they will...
...pick up the option, but even if they pick up the option, they can trade him if they so choose.  It's worth at least listening to offers for him.

by ubelmann on Sep 25, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep...
I agree with this.  I'm all for extending him if the price is right and there aren't great alternatives (there aren't currently unless we trade for one).  Otherwise, I'd listen to offers.

by djskilbr on Sep 25, 2006 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pick it up...
You can always look at trade offers next season, depending on how he plays and where the team stands.

The wodnrous world of abseball where players tend to kick-it-up-a-notch when it comes time to discuss contracts.

He is the face of the Twins (at least before this season) and could've been considered the franchise player for a nano-second.

Just wish Mr. carl would realize that you can have a budget, but you also must make exceptions for certain contracts.

by twintown on Sep 25, 2006 3:25 PM EDT reply actions  

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