Twinkie Town: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

Joe Torre & the Strikeout Kid

Neither the Yankees or the Mets seem to be good trading partners, should the Johan sweepstakes open up.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have also been hot on the rumor circuit, and it's not hard to imagine Santana mowing through National League hitters.

I've always had a lot of respect for Joe Torre.  In some situations it's difficult to know what you like or don't like about a manager, but with Torre it's different.  He managed a winning team, as much as you could manage the New York Yankees.  Talented veterans filled the roster and knew what they had to do; if you didn't know your job you didn't stay in Pinstripes very long.  But more than anything, I saw character in Joe Torre.  The grace with which he dealt with not only the savage New York media, but also a brash and sometimes childish George Steinbrenner, speaks volumes.  He was patient and professional, and even though he always bought the company line there was never any doubt that he had control of the clubhouse.  Joe Torre was always the manager of the New York Yankees.  He didn't pretend to be anything more, and he was confident enough to know he was nothing less.  He was able to define his role not only through what he did, but what he chose not to do in a sporting world of growing savagery and defensive self-promotion.  I believe the Los Angeles Dodgers hired one of the best managers in baseball.

On the opposite side of defensive self-promotion is the public relations coup that Torii Hunter is layering over baseball.  He knows what he's doing, and it's a clinic in how to sell yourself.  Hunter recently mentioned Los Angeles as one of his top prospectives (duh), and it's hard to blame him.  The Dodgers are always major players in the off-season, and this year is no exception.  Big names such as Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez and Johan Santana have all been bantered about by the rumor mongrels.  LA will be movers and shakers this off-season, and with Torre already in tow they'll be making aggressive plays to land talent and win now.  You know that will appeal to Torii.

And...did I just mention Johan Santana?

The Los Angeles Dodgers

OF Delwyn Young (S/R), Born 06/30/1982

Splits    AB    H   2B   HR   BB   SO   Avg   Obp   Slg
Minors  2706  819  225  102  235  611  .303  .362  .512
Majors    39   13    1    2    2    6  .333  .357  .564

Young was drafted three times ('00 - '02).  The first two times he declined the up-front cash temptation to remain in school (sorry, Atlanta).  At every level in the minor leagues he's succeeded offensively, almost wildly.  Only in his first full season at AAA, after switching from second base to outfield, did he post an OPS below .836.  Young is an MLB-ready hitter.

OF Matt Kemp (R/R), Born 09/23/1984

Splits    AB    H  2B  HR  SB   BB   SO   Avg   Obp   Slg
Minors  1579  490  98  60  69  107  319  .310  .358  .518
Majors   446  139  19  17  16   25  119  .312  .344  .496

Kemp is an athletic outfielder, who could probably step in and start in center field for the Twins from Day 1.  His control of the strike zone has gotten much better in recent years, reducing is BB:K ratio from nearly 4:1 at ages 19 and 20 to better than 2:1 at ages 21 to 23 (minor leagues).  He doesn't have the power potential of Young, but he might be the better hitter.  He's also two years younger.  SBNation's sabermetrics website, Beyond the Box Score, gives some insights to Kemp's possible future here.

LHP Clayton Kershaw, Born 03/19/1988

Year       IP   ERA   WHIP   HR/9   BB/9    K/9
'06-Rk   37.0  1.95   0.89   0.00   1.22  13.14
'07-A    97.1  2.77   1.25   0.46   4.62  12.39
'07-AA   24.2  3.65   1.38   1.46   6.20  10.58

Kershaw possesses a fastaball, curve and change.  His curve is getting better (has been classified as a "big" curve) but his focus was on the changeup in 2007, realizing that it's development would make his mid-90's fastball that much more effective.  Always the strikeout pitcher, his control faultered this past season; rough when Baseball America rates him as the Dodger prospect with the best pitch control.  I like Kershaw's potential, but as high as that potential is he's not one of my primary targets.

3B Andy LaRoche (R/R), Born 09/13/1983

Split     AB    H   2B  HR   BB   SO   Avg   Obp   Slg
Minors  1655  488  105  90  203  274  .295  .376  .525
Majors    93   21    5   1   20   24  .226  .365  .312

LaRoche has been mentioned around TwinkieTown a number of times over the last year.  In fact, he gets Christmas cards from Cmathewson.  Last February, Baseball America rated Andy as the best prospect in the Dodger system, including accolades for best hitter for power and best infield arm.  Currently, LaRoche is battling with Team USA in the 2007 IBAF World Cup.  TrueBlueLA, SBNation's site for the Dodgers, recently held a poll that sited LaRoche as the most likely prospect to be traded this off-season.  Hearsay?  Yes.  Interesting to note when you assume fans of TrueBlueLA are as savvy and up on their team as the fans of TwinkieTown?  Also yes.

Dodger Wrap: There are a number of other players who spark my interest (Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Xavier Paul, Ivan DeJesus, and even Scott Elbert, who had arthroscopic surgery on his labrum to remove scar tissue last June), but these are the main four guys I'd be building by starting offer around.  All four have good ceilings, are young and will remain affordable for Minnesota in the near future.  More importantly, the position players are offensive performers at positions of need for the Twins.

My package offerings are a bit looser this time, mostly because there are so many players I like.  Package One:  Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw.  OR...

Pick Two   AND   Pick One   -OR-  Pick Two
Young            Ethier           Paul
Kemp             Billingsley      DeJesus
Kershaw          Loney            Elbert
LaRoche

From the buffet line I'll have Young, LaRoche and Ethier, please...

Of the three teams I've scourged so far, the Dodgers are by far the best fit.  Not only are they a financial heavyweight who can absorb Santana with a smile, they also have young but MLB-ready position player talent.  For a team ruled by the dollar, the Twins should be taking a long hard look to Los Angeles if they decide trading Johan is the best way to go.

We might know what way that is by the time the Winter Meetings begin on December 3rd.  Stay tuned.

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Excellent post...
...Jesse.  Also, Happy Thanksgiving.

Everyone is talking about Kershaw and never having seen him pitch, it is always hard to have a great feel for a kid.  Obviously, teams have access to scouting reports that tell them a lot more than we will ever know.

But, the Twins may already have him in their organization...oh, he is using a different name (Tyler Robertson).  Yes, Tyler isn't as tall but also is a 19 year old lefty.  And Tyler graded out higher this year, 115.120 versus Kershaw at 98.598 using my formula to evaluate players.

Both pitched the entire year in the MidWest League.  Robertson's line was 102.1ip, 2.29ERA, 123K/33BB with 3 home runs.  Kershaw's line was 97.1ip, 2.77ERA, 134K/50BB with 5 home runs.  Actually, the two were very similar with Robertson having slightly better numbers across the line except for strikeouts where both were excellent, Kershaw had 1.377/inning while Robertson had 1.202.  Robertson had much better control however, with Kershaw having 4.623 walks per 9 innings while Robertson had only 2.902 walks per inning.

by roger on Nov 20, 2007 8:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Happy Thanksgiving, Roger
Good research on the Robertson/Kershaw comparison.  If we have his clone, there's zero reason to make him a major piece in a Santana trade.  Well done.

by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The thing is...
...Robertson may have better numbers, yet not be anywhere near the prospect Kershaw is.  I know his namesake was a very good Cajun singer, but no nothing about this kid.  Good news is that Robertson had a phenominal year and maybe, just maybe, this kid will be a good one.

by roger on Nov 20, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Dodgers are the best fit
According to the PiPress yesterday, the Twins can pretty much name their price in terms of the level of prospects they ask for. I'm not sure about quantity, but three sounds like a reasonable number to me. So allow me to pick my package:

I would say in addition to two position player prospects, the Dodgers should give up one young major league pitcher to make it worth the Twins while. Here are the three guys I would ask for:

*Andy LaRoche (he gets the card with the Nativity scene this year)
*Delwyn Young (according to Joe C., the Twins are less high on Kemp than the Dodgers)
*Jonathan Broxton (could start or relieve--possible closer candidate a la Joe Nathan circa 2004)

I agree with Roger. Kershaw is overhyped compared to our own prospect at the same level. The only thing is, Robertson is two inches taller than Kershaw, but Kershaw throws harder. Anyway, I don't think you go after that level of prospect considering the depth of the system at the lower levels. Not only did the Twins have two top-20 pitching prospects at Beloit, but two at E-Town (using Sickel's list).

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'd take
LaRoche, Young and Broxton...I could definitely deal with that.  Good call with Kershaw, btw--I hadn't glanced through our system for comparibles at all.

by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry bout that CMath,
...I thought Kershaw was something like 6'7.  Don't recall ever seeing it, whatever!

But I don't feel that we should be taking as a major part of the trade a kid from single A ball.  Alot can happen on the way to the dance.  Give us two about ready top notch position players and as a throw in, then maybe Kershaw is ok.  But not as a major part of the puzzle.

Happy Thanksgiving CMath!

by roger on Nov 20, 2007 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did I write that?
Kershaw possesses a fastaball, curve and change.

As opposed to a meataball, which gets slugged outta da park.

by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 11:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dodgers have itchy trigger finger...
As good of a match-up as the Dodgers are for a Santana deal, I have also read that they are trying to swing deals for Miguel Cabrera and/or Erik Bedard as well. They have a lot of prospects, sure, but in all likelihood they will only be able to trade for one of Cabrera/Bedard/Santana. I have a sneaking suspicion that they will pull the trigger for whatever trade presents itself first, and I don't think that Bill Smith wants to rush things.

If and/or when we decide to trade Santana, the Dodgers may have already dealt the prospects we would want.

by eahnpurato on Nov 20, 2007 12:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fair point
But also remember that trades for prime players are less likely to happen before the winter meetings, which could be when Smith gears up for a possible swap.

by Jesse on Nov 20, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think...
that this is easily the best fit, too.  I think you have to get Kemp and Laroche at least.  If we get a pitcher in return, I think it depends on when we're going for it.

If we think we can win this year, you go for Billingsley, who is also very good.  If you're more chalking this up as a "growing" year, then you go with Kershaw, who should be up later this year.  

Either way, this would be an excellent package.  

I don't want to deal Johan, but if we have to, it better be to LA for something like this.

by djskilbr on Nov 20, 2007 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

One point
go with Kershaw, who should be up later this year.  

As Roger has shown, Kershaw is a 19-year old Tyler Robertson clone. At best, he would dominate the FSL and make the jump to AA in 2008. Like Robertson, he will likely stay in Fort Myers all year. I'd be shocked to see Kershaw pitch from a big league mound before 2010.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We all remember...
...Garza going from Low-A one year all the way to the Twins the next.  But, he was a college pitcher and a lot older.  Like Robertson, Kershaw is a high school kid and has at least a couple more proms before he is ready for big show.

But hey, maybe we can hype Robertson as another Kershaw and trade him even up for Cabrera?  Any takers?

by roger on Nov 20, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If
If we could get Kemp, Kershaw (or, I dunno, some other pitcher, more on that later), and La Roche I'd be pretty tempted.  In fact, if I were smart, I'd do it.  It would just make me really sad to see Johan go, but that would be a hell of a package, especially for our needs.

As for Kershaw, I'd be willing to take Broxton instead.  The thing with getting Broxton is we could then turn around and trade Nathan for a better starting prospect AND a decent DH option, maybe even young, effectively turning Santana and Nathan into Gret young options at 3rd and CF, a starting pitching prospect or two, and a good DH, AND a great closer in Broxton.  Quite a little haul.

This is the first write up I've seen that actually makes me willing to pull the trigger, as if it were my trigger to pull.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 20, 2007 3:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think you guys are severely...
underrating Kershaw.

Some of the BA guys even think he'll be up and starting MIDSEASON.  Yes, he's young, but he's a true phenom.  And CMath, he ended last season at AA.  I'd actually be SHOCKED if he's not up by the beginning of 2009.  He's that good.

No way in heck would I take Broxton over him in a package.  Kershaw is rated as the #1 minor league pitching prospect in the game right now by many.  Broxton is a reliever, a damn good one, but a reliever just the same.  

We can trade Nathan anyway since we already have a great reliever in Neshek.

Just my two cents.

by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 4:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

See I think
See I think I'd rather have Broxton, because then you could trade Nathan for another guy atop the pitching prospect lists, and probably get another player or two in there, and STILL have a great closer in Broxton who is ALSO young and very cheep.  That would be AMAZING.  In addition to trading Santana, you'd basically be simultaneously managing to turn Nathan into a cheap version of himself and still getting the full package of players.  You/d be upgrading all parts of the team EXCEPT for, of course, the massive loss of Santana.
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that's where we disagree though...
I think you can trade Nathan anyway because I think Neshek can be just as good of a closer as Broxton.  That's my whole point.

Whatever you get for Nathan + Kershaw + Neshek closing
=
Much better than whatever you get for Nathan + Broxton + Neshek

at least to me.

by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 2:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Broxton > Neshek
Don't get me wrong, I love Neshek. But the history of guys like him suggests a short career as a quality set-up guy. We saw what can happen to him if a small mechanical problem comes up. He became very human in the second half of 2007. He claims it was weakness, but he also lost his release point and didn't have the control he needed to put guys away.

I think he'll come back strong in 2008, but I wouldn't count on him being the closer. Broxton has closer written all over him.

Internally, I'd put Crain ahead of Neshek as a future closer. But no one knows how well or how soon he will come back from shoulder surgery. I suppose Morlan tops them all, but he's still a coupe of years away.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2007 2:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Neshek fell apart...
...right after that brutal stretch where he pitched in 6 games over 7 days (July 13th to the 19th).  After July 19th, Neshek allowed opponents to hit .288/.368/.513 against him, and had a 6.14 ERA.  On July 19th and before, Neshek allowed opponents to hit just .131/.212/.231 and had a 1.49 ERA.

Maybe it's just a crazy coincidence, but to me the evidence points pretty clearly to overuse being the cause of the problem.  I'd much rather see Neshek pitching multiple innings in fewer appearances than pitching in six games over seven days in a match-up role.

I'm not optimistic about Crain or Rincon being better than league average relief pitchers going forward, and in general don't feel that confident in the Twins' bullpen situation for next year if Nathan is traded.

by ubelmann on Nov 21, 2007 2:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree on Neshek...
I thought Neshek also stated that he stopped lifting weights this year during the season, which he had never done.  And all signs after the year were that it was wear, nothing more.

I have to disagree on the state of the bullpen though.  While I'm not confident in Crain or Rincon (I think Crain will return well but probably not until later in the year) I am extremely confident in the potential of Boof and Perkins in a bullpen role, as I expect for both of them.  I think those 2 with Neshek could be a great crew, with a better Guerrier in the mix too.  

And even Reyes, his problem seemed to be health last year more than anything.  If he's healthy this year, I could easily see him returning to 2006 form (well, okay, not THAT good) again.  

I LOVE Nathan; he's the best in the game to me factoring in durability, etc. (ie that puts him above Pap to me, barely), but I would have no problem trading both he and Rincon--good riddance to Juan--and rolling with a pen of:

Neshek
Boof
Perkins
Guerrier
Reyes
Blackburn
with Crain working his way into the mix

And let's not forget, Mijares and Morlan could both contribute significantly by the end of this season.

To tack onto Rincon, I still think a deal of Rincon for Luke Scott just makes too much sense not for Bill Smith to do something like that.  That would be ideal IMO.

by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe...
but do you think the difference between Broxton and Neshek is greater than the difference in value between Kershaw and Neshek?

I really don't.  Kershaw can be the centerpiece of a deal for just about anyone.  I don't think Broxton, as a closer, has that same value personally.

That's my only real point.

by djskilbr on Nov 21, 2007 2:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fine
If they got Broxton (again, along WITH LaRoche and Kemp) then Neshek could still take the closer's job.  But then trading Nathan and moving Neshek up to closer wouldn't leave the gap at set-up because you'd have Broxton, who is also young and cheep with only 3 years in the majors so far, unlike Nathan who is soon to get a BIG payday.  Then you could trade Nathan for someone as good as Kershaw (or heck, even Kershaw himself) AND probably either a decent young hitter (DH option) or an additional prospect or two.

My point is that between:

Neshek closing, Broxton setting up, Kemp and LaRoche starting, a top young pitching prospect in the minors, a young DH hitter, and an extra prospect

vs

Nathan closing, Neshek setting up, Kemp and LaRoche starting, and Kershaw.

The first package is far better, yielding additional prospects, lowering payroll, AND filling all our slots.  All while making the team younger.

Heck, why don't we just send them Santana and nathan for Kemp, LaRoche, Kershaw, Broxton, and either Young or Eitheir?  Something like that...

I think the Dodgers really are a great fit for this, largely because of Kemp and Laroche.

Honestly, if we did all this, I'd have no idea how to spend all the money we'd be saving.  The most expensive DH we can get i guess, then extensions for people...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 21, 2007 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Value
Don't get me wrong, Kershaw has the highest absolute value of anybody in this discussion right now. But players' value is relative to the organization. Broxton has more value to an organization that already has five top left-handed pitching prospects (Liriano, Perkins, Duensing, Mullins, and Robertson) but is a little thin at the top of the bullpen.

I guess if the Twins were in full-blown rebuilding mode, I'd take Kershaw. But I think the Twins have a chance to be good in 2008 and beyond if they play their cards right. And I like the option of trading both Santana and Nathan to do that. But I don't think the bullpen is nearly good enough or deep enough to succeed without someone like Nathan back there. So Broxton makes more sense to me for this club.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?
Really?  Kershaw is that good that he's the best int he conversation, better than prime, major league ready players at our greatest positions of need like Kemp and LaRoche?
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 23, 2007 2:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't trade Kershaw...
straight up for Nathan, personally.

Nathan is the best, but closers are still overrated.

I look at it like this I guess, Adam:

I think you can get a BETTER prospect for Nathan than Broxton.  

But I think Kershaw IS better than Nathan value-wise.

Just my personal take.  That's where we disagree it seems.

I'm totally with you though; the Dodgers are CLEARLY the best fit.

I think it's starting to turn that way at this point.  I really see every indication the Angels are loading up to get Miggy.  They can easily do it now with an Adenhart/Wood (who's overrated)/Willits/Mathis or Kendrick package and be just fine.

And if the Angels get Miggy, all hell will break loose in DodgerVille out here wanting to match them marketing-wise.  

This could be a dream scenario for us in the end.

by djskilbr on Nov 22, 2007 3:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Simpler
It ended up being simpler than that, the Angels got Hunter instead.  I'm hoping for that media storm...
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 23, 2007 2:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

TT is an SB Nation blog of, by and for the fans. We strive to be the best Minnesota Twins blog by providing quality content and analysis, as well as daily news and notes on the team. We hope you'll make Twinkie Town your home for all things Twins!
Start posting about the Twins »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Organization Review (Relief Pitchers)
Small
On Roy, Ramos, and RISK

Recent FanPosts

Small
Josh Johnson
Small
Anybody want to talk revenues?
Joel87bw5_small
Signing up for the Minors
Small
Roy, Ramos, and RISK, Part II
Small
30 Cents on the Dollar = 2B Indifference
P1060527_small
New Uni Thoughts
Small
Minor League Report...November 14, 2009
Pose_small
Prediction Time (My Guess at 2010 Organizational teams)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Twinkie Town On Twitter

SPONSORS


Editor-In-Chief

Twinkietown_small Jesse

Senior Writer

Hrbek_small Jon Marthaler

The_jet_small cmathewson

Gladdentwins_small Adam Peterson

Hosken_powell_autograph_small RandBall's Stu