Red Sox Win Santana?

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2007 10:42 AM EST in News Comment 66 comments

[AFTERNOON UPDATES]

La Velle's latest mentions two possible Boston offerings, although he hints that a deal including both Lester and Ellsbury does have a hint of happening. "What's all this one in a million stuff?!?" Additionally the Angels have officially joined into the mix, and as expected names like Jared Weaver and Brandon Wood lead LEN's speculation.

Joe Christensen spoke with a scout who doesn't show much faith in possible trade piece Jed Lowry of the Red Sox. The same scout believes Alexi Casilla is a more well-rounded prospect, leading Joe to the "buzz" that the Twins may now be looking at a 5-for-1 deal for Johan Santana.

KFAN 1130 am is reporting that a fifth player has been added to the rumored package from Boston, adding to information that Peter Gammons has already broke. The fifth player is Ryan Kalish.

--------------------------------------------

[From this morning] Rumored package to include Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp.

Over at LEN III's blog at StarTribune.com, he reports that the Twins may be in the final stages of a deal that would net four Boston players--two pitchers, a second baseman/shorstop and a centerfielder.

Boston.com

Ken Rosenthal

Over the Monster, SBNation's Boston Red Sox site. Epstein, GM of the year? If this is the deal, I'll agree 100%.

Once again, Cmathewson beats me to the punch.

0 recs | Comment 66 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I don't know

This sounds much much less certain than when it became know that the Delmon Young deal was imminent.

by adam on Dec 4, 2007 11:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

True

But La Velle isn't prone to posting idle rumors, either.

I'm still crossing my fingers on Ellsbury.

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2007 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather have the Yanks deal than

the current rumor. There just isn't enough upside in that Sox offer; without Ellsbury I'd gamble on Hughes upside.

I would not judge this deal as a positive if it goes down as it stands, though I will say that the Twins are the best at minor league scouting, so maybe they really value Masterson and view him as a key component.

by Eric in Madison on Dec 4, 2007 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I like Lowrie and Masterson, but I think Cabrera and Hughes have so much higher of a ceiling. In addition, Boston's virtually unbeatable now in the playoffs for the next 5 years.

by TheMattWilke on Dec 4, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

if this ends up being done, there are a couple of things that can be safely assumed:

The Twins were higher on Lester than on Ellsbury
The Twins felt dealing Johan for a package that doesn't quite yield what they really wanted was better than signing Johan to an extension
Any possible offers from the Angels and Dodgers weren't enough to deter from what would be an imperfect package from Boston

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2007 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah but it's the Yankees

Not having Santana go there is worth something to this fan

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Dec 4, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the Red Sox more

Besides liking Theo Epstein, the Red Sox are far more dangerous than the Yankees will be for a long time. They've got the superior front office and the money to spend.

Oh yeah, and Josh Beckett is unbeatable in October.

by TheMattWilke on Dec 4, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless

he has a blister.

richman

by anderson800 on Dec 4, 2007 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano's the key

I could like the Red Sox deal IF Liriano is the Liriano of 2006...maybe he get's back, maybe not.

Hughes is far better insurance, IMHO.

I'll remain disappointedly patient to see if there is more to the plan.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Dec 4, 2007 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

two options - Ellsbury or Lester

from the all santana all the time site at rotoworld, found through Aaron Gleeman:

"The Boston Herald reports that the Twins and Red Sox are expected to "resume serious negotiations" Tuesday morning, with Minnesota said to be deciding between two different trade packages for Johan Santana.

One package is reportedly Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, while the other is believed to be Jacoby Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2993

or to put it another, briefer way: no real news yet...

by by jiminy on Dec 4, 2007 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No brainer

You take the package that fills three holes instead of two.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it?

Package A fills more holes, but Package B has the best player. I'm not so sure about A.

by TheMattWilke on Dec 4, 2007 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

Just how good is Ellsbury? Just how good is Hughes?

I don't think either will be players to carry a team to a championship. I see both as solid but unspectacular. Anyway, that's a distinct possibility. Hughes was about at Garza's level last year. And Ellsbury got hot in the playoffs but was nothing special before then. They both have more upside than they showed, but who's to say they reach it?

The guys who will carry this team to a championship are Mauer, Morneau, and Young. Not Hughes or Ellsbury. The Twins need pieces to fill holes around the core, not core players. Just my $0.02.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

unexpected...

There's a decent chance that the best player we add this offseason will be Delmon Young.

Now who would have imagined that our most valuable singular addition would come in a Matt Garza trade rather than a Johan Santana trade?

by eahnpurato on Dec 4, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Filled with what?

I don't know that it's that simple - I mean, a package of Crisp, Julio Lugo, and Tim Wakefield fills the same three holes, but it's not all that great a filling. Ellsbury is probably not as good as his 900 OPS in Boston this year, but Crisp has been rotten at the plate for two years running, and Ellsbury is cheaper besides. If the Twins are satisfied with their stable of pitchers (not that anyone ever thinks they have enough pitching), that likely upgrade in CF might be worth leaving out Lester.

by BeefMaster on Dec 4, 2007 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my two cents

they must really be skeptical of Hughes, or really love Lowry and Masterson, because it's hard to see Lowry or Ellsbury winning you a championship, whereas people say Hughes could be a real number one.

It will be interesting to look back at where all these guys in five years and see who was right...

by by jiminy on Dec 4, 2007 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

typo

I mean it's hard to see lester or ellsbury -- any of these guys really -- making the twins a team that could scare anyone. Some say Hughes is that good. But they said that about Eric Milton too. But I think you have to be thinking, what move has a chance of making us the team to beat, not just an okay team with no glaring holes.

by by jiminy on Dec 4, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this cant be true

but Foxsports rumors reports from a paper out of Jersey saying the Sox have included Ellsbury with Crisp plus Lester and Lowrie, speculating that they will get Rowand or Jones.

More food for thought. That would give the Twins an immediate trading chip(Crisp)

by cedab03 on Dec 4, 2007 12:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're right

This can't be true.

by Eric in Madison on Dec 4, 2007 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fox Rumors

Fox sports will print anything in their rumors section. Means nothing

by WITwinsfan on Dec 4, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and what could we get for Crisp?

I'm guessing not much... Certainly not that 3B we would still desparately need.

by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 4, 2007 12:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Keep waiting

As far as I see current package of Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson contains no true superstars, if we're going to actually upgrade this team that's what we have to look for. Yes these guys are probably all going to be MLB talent but nothing truly special. I'm especially concerned about having Lester as the centerpiece. Obviously a great kid who's been through a lot but I don't seem him as particularly dominating. The thing that would also be most concerning is that from the stats I've seen Lester has yet to throw much more than 150 innings in a given season so its pretty much a dead certainty that it will be at least 2 years before he can make a real impact.

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

150+ innings.......

If Lester fills the #4 (or #5 role) and pitches 150 innings for the Twins, I'd be pleased for 2008.

His chances of pitching more than that are higher than, say, Glen Perkins, who can now start the season as a starter at Rochester (hoping the Twins grab another bullpen lefty -- Eddie G. anyone?).

If Book, Baker and Slowey pitch solid, and Liriano comes back and also pitches 150+ innings, it will still allow the Twins to also look at and showcase some other prospects during the season.

The big question is how good will the pitching be and can the Twins compete (stay above .500) in 2009.

Does an infield of Casilla.Punto and Lowrie and Harris (maybe Buscher/Macri) thrill you?

If the bench is, say, Macri, Redmond, Predie, Punto...who is the fifth guy (or backup at first base?)

Still some tinkering.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Dec 4, 2007 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Spare parts

This is a very bad deal and it makes me sick to think that we're getting somebodies secondary goods for the best piece of goods in baseball.

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Spare parts

Jon Lester was a top-five overall prospect two years ago. He's full healed from Hodgekins disease and only 24. His stock should be comparable to Garza's.

Jed Lowrie is one of the top three or four shortstop prospects in all of baseball and the fourth best prospect in the Red Sox system. Think a switch hitting Chuck Knoblauch with more power and less speed.

Justin Masterson is the Red Sox third best prospect (behind Bucholz and Ellsbury ad ahead of Lowrie).

I would prefer those three to Hughes, Cabrera and a mid-level prospect.

None of those guys are spare parts. Coco Crisp is a spare part because of Ellsbury, but he is better than anybody we have in center. And, if we sign Aaron Rowand, he's a sweet fourth outfielder.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still

Lester doesn't appear to be anything beyond a 3 type in a rotation. Lowrie may hit for average, have a good eye at the plate and field well at SS but that's nothing game changing. Masterson is only projectable at this point only have 10 starts over A ball. The point is that except for Lowrie the Red Sox have better options available and that's what we should be getting if they want the best pitcher in baseball. Lester is second to Bucholz, Masterson is second to a lot of folks and Crisp is definitely second to Ellsbury. That's my point.

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox Package

I look at the four names mentioned and feel good.

Then I think...well, we're getting the used centerfielder who is being replaced by an unknown. The Red Sox line-up can gamble with an unknown. We are getting a major league ready shortstop who has no where to go but somewhere other than Boston. Lester wouldn't even make the team this spring as he's #6 on the starter roster, so he's basically insurance.

The last thing the Twins need is another pitching prospect, except they don't have to 40-man this guy.

Boston is not losing anything, but gaining everything.

But is that so bad, really?

They don't have to do anything more, but can still offer a solid package.

The Twins, sadly, do need a major league ready pitcher since they aprted ways with Garza and soon Santana. They might still need another veteran starter just for the sake of holding together the rotation with Bonser or Slowey shipped out for more seasoning or to act as insurance if someone gets injured.

Crisp is okay for the Twins. If you egt Ellsbury, then you might as well kiss goodbye to anyone you think might play center in the system: Span, Roberts, Benson, Revere. Ellsbury here's for six seasons, to long to wait on everyone else.

Lowrie can be the surething, or just a stopgap.

The Twins get $13.5 million to play with.

Boston becomes unbeatable this year. Their pitching even improves again next year when Schilling goes...Wakefield will never retire...and Buchholz becomes the 5th starter! Whew! I'm sure they can find someone else in the wings, though, to replace Wakefield or for 2010.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Dec 4, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boston essentiall gives up

Crisp and Lester for one year of Santana.

If they waited until the end of 2008 and signed him to a free agent deal, the Twins would likely get two prospects similar in quality to Lowrie and Masterson. In fact, Lowrie was a first rounder and Masterson a second rounder.

The only difference is, Lowrie and Masterson can help the Twins soon whereas draft picks take four to six years to develop.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.......

If the Twins were in Japan right now, and Uncle Carl would have an offer of $50 million or Lester/Crisp...what do you think he would take.

I do wonder what a bidding war for the rights to sign Santana would bring if Major League baseball allowed owners to hold auctions like pending free agents in Japan get?

Granted, Japan players coming over here don't get draft picks or the like for theeir hometown team.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Dec 4, 2007 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lester

This may be crude to say, but I am afraid of Lester getting sick again. People who "beat" cancer get it again all the time. It seems risky to bank on him. If we leave out Ellsbury to get the pitcher instead, I'm okay with that, but then let's get Buckholz.

by cooldude on Dec 4, 2007 1:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's not crude

It's just reality. People are the commodity in baseball, which means when you're dealing them you need to treat them as such. Injury and health histories, peronal histories, financial requirements...it all needs to be considered. Lester had cancer, and it's not an insult to be concerned about it. It's not a damnation of his person, it's just an awkward situation in a business of people.

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well put

by cooldude on Dec 4, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's something.....

The Twins organization and Twins fan will get behind and support, though. Lester ahs a good chance of finding a solid home in Minnesota...either in the rotation or as a journeyman lefthander (always valuable) if he pitches to close to his potential.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Dec 4, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lance Armstrong...

had cancer and ONLY won 7 Tour's de France.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Dec 4, 2007 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i think lesters going to have some really good years. Better than hughes? probably not, but he isnt the worst substitute.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

and we hold him up as a remarkable story. He "beat the odds." I bet just about everyone on this board has a personal story of someone they know beating cancer only to get it again later.

by cooldude on Dec 4, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think

this largely speaks to the recent track record of boston's farm system. Who would you want prospects from, a farm system thats pumping out allstars right now like hanley ramirez and papelbon, or a farm system whose last real success was derek jeter.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This type of cancer

Has a 95% incidence of a cure if caught in the first year, as was the case with Lester. By cure, I mean no return of the cancer cells in the lymph nodes. In the unlikely event he gets it again, it would not come back for 15 or 20 years.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm

I'm going to side witht he people that are unhappy with these packages. I don't really like Coco Crisp at all, he's the third best CF out of 3 we were discussing. Lester is only he second best pitcher. Lowrie is limited defensively.

No A level guys, and that makes me unhappy.

But it is only rumblings as of yet.

I'd love tot see the look on Hank Steinbrenner's face when he finds out officially if this goes through though.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 4, 2007 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Moreso

I'm looking forward to the robbery Billy Beane is going to commit on the Yankees for Dan Haren as Daddy Steinbrenner throws a tantrum at Hank for blowing this deal.

by TheMattWilke on Dec 4, 2007 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Taking a back seat to Santana and waiting until his role has been played is a very smart move. I'm sure Beane will play himself into a very positive negotiating position with the young pitcher.

by Jesse on Dec 4, 2007 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bs

I say put Ellsbury back in forget Lester get Lowrie, Masterdon, and another low level propect and for God's sakes BS. pay for a FA pitcher if you need one that bad or make another trade or expand this one.

by doofus04 on Dec 4, 2007 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just saw over at ESPN that

Peter Gammons is reporting that The Twins and Red Sox are getting closer to finalizing a Johan Santana deal. I guess Boston is adding a fifth player to the the offer -- outfield prospect Ryan Kalish.

richman

by anderson800 on Dec 4, 2007 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

quantity is crap

if were not getting real quality guys in return for Santana, adding on more and more guys is not going to help the situation

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I concur

I don't like this situation one bit

by TMoney on Dec 4, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well...

mlb.com is now reporting the angels are officially entering the fray...who knows...

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Angels

If the Angels move in maybe that would increase the likelihood of the other LA team getting involved, which is the only team I really wanted to deal with in the first place. If Boston doesn't have a deal for Buchholz AND Ellsbury, the Dodgers have Billingsley AND Kemp who are probably just as good but without all the silly media hype.

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think the real question would be

are the dodgers willing to give santana the right contract? I dont know, but almost all the other clubs involved seem more likely to satisfy johan's end of the deal.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If that were the case

then the Mets would have been bigger players just because the Yankees were players.

richman

by anderson800 on Dec 4, 2007 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

looks like the angels being in it was bogus, weird that it was on mlb.com

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is anyone concerned...

...that Lowrie hit .163Ave in 98 at bats in the AFL. That is the same league and pitching that Trevor Plouffe hit .280AVe in 50 at bats. Plouffe missed the last week or so with an injury. Granted, a small sample...but?

by roger on Dec 4, 2007 5:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No. Not concerned at all about the AFL.

The sample is absurdly small. I don't know what Lowrie is going to be, but I'll rely on his .291/.386/.448 composite minor league line, including his .500+ slg in 500 AA-AAA at bats last year.

by Eric in Madison on Dec 4, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lester AND Elsbury

BP is reporting that the Twins and BoSox are close to a done deal including a Lester, Masterson, Kalish, and a "center fielder" however no Lowrie.

by Snarky on Dec 4, 2007 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Link

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6970

by Snarky on Dec 4, 2007 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

geez

i just hope this thing ends soon.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

according to

mlbtraderumors.com Twins have said it'll be done by today.

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

i find that impossible to believe. What about the extension??? they couldnt get it all wrapped up today...that would be insane.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that just means they want have the package set by the end of the day so Santana and his agent can go to work. Idk... Just relaying information

P.S. if Kelly Theiser reports again that a pitcher had a bad start because he didn't keep the ball down, I might have to kill myself.

by caseintheface on Dec 4, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The process

There's a well defined process for these kinds of deals.

The Twins work out a deal with the Sox and grant the Sox a 72-hour negotiating window.
The teams announce that they have an agreement in principle, pending the contract talks, physicals and other technicalities.
The Sox negotiate with the player's agent to sign the extension within the 72-hour window.
If that deal is reached, the teams announce that the deal is finalized.
If that deal is not reached, return to step 1.

But the Sox would not even try to work out a deal with the Twins unless they knew they could meet Santana's very public demands (six years/$150 million starting in 2009).

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe???

So this is a kind of crazy possibility but who knows.

5 player deal right?

Ellsbury, Bowden, Lowry, Masterson, and CRISP??

I doubt it but their was a strange report that said they were getting both outfielders this morning. It could have been a real rumor that got dismissed because it doesn't seem to make sense.

IF!!>?? and it's a big if this were the deal the Twins could use Crisp in a trade with Nathan to get a 3B and probably another couple of good prospects.

I'm going for Ellsbury, Bowden, Lowry, Masterson, and Kalish though, just hoping they decide on Ellsbury over Lester, if for no other reason than to stick it to the Red Sox fans who worship Ellsbury.

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2007 6:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

one things for certain, this deal is looking way better to me than what the yankees were willing to offer. Hughes and melky werent good enough to be the only pieces in the trade.

by wildblueyonder on Dec 4, 2007 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yankees lowballed

I don't think the Yankees were all that serious, except perhaps to drive the price up for the Red Sox. That offer of three players, one of which is a mid-level prospect, was not good enough.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad rumor

I think the second outfielder referred to is Kalish (who's an interesting case in his own right as he appears to be very similar to Revere).

The Angels have now denied being in the Santana trade market, though the teams did meet this afternoon. So it looks as though the Red Sox will get this done and it will be announced tonight or tomorrow morning. Here's the deal:

Lester, Lowrie, Masterson, Kalish and Crisp. The Twins acquire four of the Red Sox top 10 prospects, and Crisp, who could be flipped to someone else if the Twins sign Rowand, or he could be kept.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2007 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GOD

GOD I really hope the TWins sign Rowand...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Dec 4, 2007 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs