Community Projection - Joe Mauer

by ubelmann on Feb 28, 2007 10:34 PM EST in News Comment 31 comments

So how 'bout that Joe Mauer? It turns out that he had a pretty decent season last year. What will happen this year? Will his knee doom his season? Will he slump badly trying to defend his batting title? Will he add more power to his game? I'd like to know what you think.

If you're submitting a projection, just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion is encouraged.

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I'll go first...

I'll put Mauer down for:

600 PA, .330/.420/.530, 20 HR, 10 SB, 2 CS

What can I say? I'm a big fan of 24-year olds coming off of a .347/.429/.507 season with more walks than strikeouts.

by ubelmann on Feb 28, 2007 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Off the top of my head...

By the time I get to my "well thought out" projections at the end of March, this will probably change, but for now...

610 PA, .320/.420/.510, 17 HR, 10 SB, 4 CS

by Jesse on Feb 28, 2007 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projection

Here we are:

630 PA .320 BA/ .425 OBP/ .510 SLG, 18 HR, 40 2B, 9 SB, 3 CS

Those numbers line up rather nicely from mathematical perspective (as in that number of homers, doubles, and average amount do add up to that level of slugging). It would leave him with 97 BB's as well, which is about what I'd expct in improvement from this year's 79. It isn't so much that I expect his patience to increase, it's that in his months where he was hitting over .400 hundred last year (like his big June and May's) he was hitting for such a high average that he didn't walk so much. It's hard to walk that often when you're hitting .450, and his isoPD went down. It was around that level for the other times when he was hitting more normally. This line I gave him is pretty similar to his September line as far as relationships between his Ba, OBP, and SLG are concerned.

The power is pretty much in line with what his growth had been from year to year, the fact that he hit a few more homers down the stretch last year than at the start, and the fact that he hit a few more homers once he wasn't hitting .450 for the month. Once he calmed back down to hitting a "normal" .320, he was averaging around 3 homers in those months, and that lineup up with his age curve. The Sb's I don't see improving. he's gotten most of the stolen bags in his career before last July when he was more unknown. He's still clever there though.

S basically, what were seeing in terms of last year is a lower average, but a few more plate appearances (because of april) and about 1 less hits, but a handful of extra doubles and homers to boost the the owner somewhat and overall bring his total bases equal to last year and enough walks to make him get on base as often as last year. That's a player who's ALMOST as productive as he was last year, and absolutly amazing.

There you are.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 1, 2007 12:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I Project...

Mauer will be elected to the All-Star Game as the starting Catcher for the AL. This should have happened last year.

-Flip

by Flip27 on Mar 1, 2007 1:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer...

...will get 18-21 homers, steal between a dozen and 15 bases and will equal or beat last year's average by a bit...finishing around .347-.355. He will flirt with .400 during 2008 and barring major injury, a few years in the future will become the first player to actually hit .400 for a season since Mr. Williams.

by roger on Mar 1, 2007 7:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer Power

projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.

PA: 618
BA: .344
OBP: .431
SLG: .527
HR: 21
SB: 9
CS: 2

MVP-type season, depending on the Twins finish.

by Diggity Dino on Mar 1, 2007 8:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not much to argue with here

I agree with the general tenor of these projections. Like Roger, my only difference with the first three here is BA. Everyone says his BA is prone for regression, and that is the statistically likely outcome. But having watched him closely last year, I can say he had one of the unluckiest years I can recall for a hitter. He hit the ball hard two thirds of the time and in slightly more than half of those at bats he got hits. He was flirting with .400 in July and hit a bit better than .300 the rest of the way.

What was the main cause of his slip? I contend it was luck. His at bats looked very similar to me in the second half, but he hit more balls hard right at people and had more great plays made against him than I ever recall in my 40 years of following baseball. Some of that was good positioning. But a lot of it was bad luck. With average luck, we're talking .380. If you do regression from there, .350 to .360 is not out of line.

The interesting number that everyone is watching is HR. He certainly has the body for a lot more homers. He's actually bigger than Morneau, if not stronger (same height, bigger frame). By all accounts, he has worked really hard this offseason on core strength. It will be interesting to see how that translates into homers, but I'm going out on a limb to say last night's performance is a sign of things to come. I'm projecting him at 25 for the year.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 1, 2007 8:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

well-hit average

does anyone here have access to Inside Edge's Well-Hit Average statistics? According to this NY Times Column (unfortunately you have to be a subscriber or pay) http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=FA0A12F63D5B0C718EDDA90994DE404482
this Minneapolis-based company keeps track of exactly what you are talking about and could give you precise stats

by by jiminy on Mar 2, 2007 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too many plate apperances being projected

Remember that Joe is a catcher and PT DH. He will no way acheive 600+ plate appearances.

So......

530 AB's
.350 BA
.425 OBP
.525 SLG
21 HR's
14 SB
4 CS

by bobio on Mar 1, 2007 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

PA

Why not 600+? He had 600+ last year, if I read his stat line from last year correctly it was 601, but it's still 600+. I'm thinking you are in line with what others are thinking too - keep in mind he had almost 80 walks last year...

by GACTwinFan on Mar 1, 2007 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Last Night

Does anyone know where he hit his home run last night? If those home run numbers are going to go up he has to be able to learn how to pick pitches to turn on. His approach is so concentrated on hitting to the deepest parts of the the park, particularly left center. It works because usually no one is where he hits it. But until he learns to pick pitches to hit for home runs the easy way, I think his power numbers increase only slightly.

620 PA
.320 AVG
.450 OBP
.480 SLG
15 HR
9 SB (pitchers and catchers are starting to watch him more closely)
4 CS
49 SO
61 BB

by TheMattWilke on Mar 1, 2007 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Last night's HR to left

He's strong enough to hit a high outside fastball over the fence the other way. I too would like to see him turn on more fastballs on the inner half, but he looks outside first and I'm fine with that. He could still hit 25 with his current approach. Jacques Jones hit 27 one year, 18 of which were the other way. Line-drive hitters will have better success in the Metrodome hitting homers to left field anyway.

To me his power will develop as his body develops and he gets more core strength. I wouldn't want to mess with that swing or that approach.

Remember Hank Blalock? He had a similar approach when he came up. Then he hit a big homer in the All-Star game and ever since then, he's tried to pull everything. I wonder how good Blalock would be now if he'd stuck with the approach that got him to the big leagues.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 1, 2007 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

It's not so much about going opposite field as it is going for the left center gap. Those balls have to be crushed, making contact with every possible stitch in order to leave the yard. Mauer is strong enough to be capable of it, but it's just a really difficult way to hit a home run.

What I was saying, is that if he still has this approach, the power numbers aren't going to jump this year. I generally like the approach because it allows slack for being late on a fastball and being fooled by an off-speed pitch. It's just definitely for contact hitters hitting for average, though.

Jacque is straight up over the left-fielder's head opposite field. It's a much easier home run that allows for a margin of error in getting complete contact. It a shorter distance and he has hitting fastballs that way down to a science. But it makes him easier to fool on offspeed pitches and more prone to strikeouts. I just don't see the comparison as applicable.

by TheMattWilke on Mar 1, 2007 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

He could keep most or all of his current approach and still find a smaller boost to his power numbers just by him being a bit stronger and the balls going further. It isn't just homers too, projected him to smack a few more doubles too.

But perhaps you were referring to the projection than he'll hit 25 homers this year, which I think is pretty unlikely. I think he'll hit 16-20 a year for a bunch more years now, with maybe more and more doubles, ad then, once he's slowed down a litt,e around 29 and isn't quite as quick and spry, he might change his approach a hair and start collecting some more homers. But that's down the line a bit more.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 1, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Major regression :)

I project that Joe Mauer will experience a massive regression in ability... all the way down to that of a 4-year old:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMcxIZiO1qQ

Apologies if you've already seen this video on Bat-Girl.com -- I can't get it out of my head whenever Joe Mauer comes up.

by BlueCanoe on Mar 1, 2007 9:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

<sniff>

They grow up so fast.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 1, 2007 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

quick swing

Thanks, that was classic!

It was also interesting watching the videos next to it about Mauer's quick swing training tool. You can see how it would lead to a quick, compact stroke like Mauer's. But I wonder if that kind of training also reined in his power some.

by by jiminy on Mar 2, 2007 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

pretty much with CMath and Roger on this that everyone's basically right but I also view his average being about the same or just above (anywhere from .350 to .360). And I peg him for 23 HR's.

I too think he will at LEAST challenge .400 at some point in the next few years, and would not be the least bit surprised if he actually does it.

by djskilbr on Mar 2, 2007 1:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

.400

I think expecting Mauer to challenge .400 is borderline ridiculous. There have been hitters as good or better than Mauer is the last 60 years (boggs, Gwyn, etc) who have failed to do so, and they didn't play a position that taxes you physically like catching does. Last year was the first time in baseball history a catcher led the majors in BA, let's not all of a sudden think that means Mauer can realistically hit .400.

Im not saying I wouldn't love it, but let's be realistic. Mauer is an amazing, once a generation player, but he still doesn't call Mt Olympus home.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 2, 2007 2:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

.400

If it was fair for people to predict that Gwynn and Boggs would flirt with .400 and had a realistic chance of reaching it -- why not Mauer? Age for age, he's matching their production.

Your point about playing catcher is well taken though, since he WAS flirting with .400, then DID wear down and fall back some. You can't help but wonder what he would hit as a DH...but let's hope we don't have to find out.

by by jiminy on Mar 2, 2007 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DH

I figure maybe when he's older - 30 at the earliest, 33 or older at the mor optimal time, he may have t split more time at first or DH with catcher. That's also the time I'd say his BA will drop some (to around .300 flat) but he'll take even more walks and start hitting enough homers every year to push 30 a couple times.

There isn't really any reason for me to believe this, I just have the guess in my head about it.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 2, 2007 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't ever...

see Mauer's average dropping to around .300 for an extended period of time. Maybe ONE season or something. But he's just too good of a hitter for that. And that's also why I don't think it's ridiculous that he can challenge .400 at some point. Gwynn DID challenge .400! And IMO would have gotten it if not for the strike. He was just getting super hot and was right on the trail. Gwynn was the best pure hitter I've seen in my lifetime, but Mauer, while different, is just as good. Gwynn's eyes are the best I've ever seen, but Mauer's swing is the best I've ever seen. I fully expect him to have at least 1 season where he flirts with it. You could be right though, he might need to play far less around the plate to do it. Just so tough being a C.

by djskilbr on Mar 3, 2007 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes!

The three best seasons I have seen were Carew's 1977 year (.388), George Brett's 1980 year (.390) and Tony Gwynn's 1994 year (.394). As a hitter, Mauer reminds me of all three of those guys in different ways. But he his closest comparison is Gwynn in terms of approach. If you look at Gwynn's career, he never had a year below .300. He had a couple of .309 years. But he had seven years above his career average .338, including five in a row from 1993 to 1997. That is the kind of career Mauer will have if he stays reasonably healthy.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 3, 2007 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gwynn

I know Gwyn challenged .400 and I agree mauer is a comparable player. But Gwynn never hit .400 and the critical difference in this regard was Gwynn played the gentle corner outfield while Mauer tires himself out over the whole season playing catcher.

So Mauer is very comparable to Gwynn, ut has a much tougher go at a number like this because of the position. There is a reason no catcher has ever led the majors in average before, and now we're talking about .400? I find that a little farfetched IF NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 4, 2007 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

Carew said something in Christensen's story in the Strib today that intrigued me. He said what makes Mauer so good is his hands. And the one thing that you need to hit consistently is healthy hands. But catchers often have a sore left hand from catching moving fastballs in what is really a glorified first baseman's glove these days (not to mention the right hand that gets banged up on foul tips). So Carew was surprised Mauer did so well considering his hands were hurting for most of the year.

I don't think Joe will be a catcher his whole career. I'd like to see him catch for a dozen or so years and then move to a corner infield position. When he does, he could hit .400. But it's extremely unlikely that he'd hit .400 as a catcher. Still, I think he'll have a few more .350s in him as a catcher, which is kind of incredible, when you consider the historical signficance.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 4, 2007 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.350

I agree he'll hit .350 as a catcher more. I think he'll probably average around .320 or .330 in all his time as a catcher. Once/if he moves to another position at the end of his career, we'll see what kind of hitter he is by then. He'll still be a very good hitter, but with all that time in between, there are many ways his hitting could have evolved.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 4, 2007 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BA

Here is some interesting discussion on some players BA. if you sort through, you'll find parts on Mauer and Morneau. With Mauer, it basically says with all the line drives he hit, he isn't set to really ta;er off that much, and for Morneau, it isn't so sure if we'll get lot's of homers, or a huge average, but one way or the other he's a big bat.

Odd to see such interesting analysis from a Yahoo sports fantasy column, but this study is probably worth it's salt.

Check it out

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 2, 2007 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

That is the kind of stuff I've been looking for. It's kind of the equivalent of FIP for hitters. And I'm glad it confirms my suspicions on Mauer.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 2, 2007 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Remember

the famous words of the last .400 hitter. "First you have to get a pitch to hit" I have a feeling that the scouts are working overtime on how to pitch to Joe. As the whole league is working to stop him he will have to adjust. His ability to adjust to whatever the weak spot of the day is based on scouting reports will be his challenge. Not sure of the numbers but this year will make him a better hitter and the .400 is a long shot at some point when it all falls into perfect place. Remember the few times it has been done the leather and year around training of the players themselves was not near as big a factor. The fact that he is a lefty is the advantage as I see it. More right hand pitchers and the left fielders can not be playing the line like a third baseman. It would be fantastic to see it happen and he is one of the few to come along that is a candidate to make it happen. He has to be able to get hits with two strike counts, especially 0-2. Gwen was able to do that and that is a key, to see as many pitches as possible and keep adjusting each day. I know this is not mathematical but...........that's how I see it and I hope it happens and I'am there in my seat on the last day of the season to go nuts with the rest of you.

"hi everybody" Herb Carneal Hall of fame baseball announcer.

by firstatbat61 on Mar 2, 2007 9:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bold prediction

I predict Joe "Vanilla Thrilla" Mauer will actually say something interesting this year in an interview.

by wcooley on Mar 6, 2007 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No Way

I say no way. Unless "I'm dating another Miss USA" counts as interesting.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 6, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs