Community Projection - Jeff Cirillo

by ubelmann on Mar 10, 2007 3:00 PM EST in News Comment 12 comments

I was looking at Jeff Cirillo's '06 numbers, and I couldn't help but be reminded of Mike Redmond:

Cirillo '06 - .319/.369/.414 Redmond '06 - .339/.363/.411

Now, there are certainly differences between the two. Redmond had just as many HBP as BB last season, so he walked at a lower rate than Cirillo, but Cirillo's walk rate wasn't anything special. But mainly, I see two role players who got pretty good OBP's by hitting a lot of singles and not doing a whole lot else. Cirillo figures to be the primary backup at both corner infield positions and would potentially see increased playing time if a middle infield injury forces Punto to shift positions.

Anyway, this one should be interesting. Most of us haven't seen Cirillo play nearly as much as the other guys on the team, so I'm curious if that will produce more of a consensus or less of a consensus.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White]

0 recs | Comment 12 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I'll say...

300 PA, .270/.330/.370, 3 HR, 1 SB, 1 CS

Over 300 PA, guys who rely primarily on singles can see their average (and subsequently OBP) vary quite a bit, so I see Cirillo as a guy with a rather uncertain value going into the season. A good pick up, but kind of a high variance player.

by ubelmann on Mar 10, 2007 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Two

There are two critical differences between Cirillo and Redmond i think you're overlooking Ubelmann. The first is last season Redmond far exceed his recent outputs and was likely very lucky. Cirillo pretty much just again matched his consistent career line last year. The thing you ignore in your projection is that while singles hitters may be inconsistent, guys who walk a good amount and don't strike out much are very consistent. More importantly, Cirillo has been very consistent over his career. Except for a couple seasons scattered throughout, usually caused by injury, he has put forth pretty much the same efforts every year, albeit with some expected power loss as he ages.

I'll take an average of his last two years, which are right around what he's pretty much been every his whole career, and I'll tweak plate appearances.

300 PA, .301 BA/.370 OBP/.415 SLG/ 4 HR, 16 2B, 2 SB, 2 CS

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 10, 2007 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Consistent career line?

From '02 to '05, Cirillo's best batting average .281, and he had seasons of .249, .205, and .213 mixed in there. Adjusted for context (park, era, etc.), Cirillo's career batting average is .288, so he's apparently benefitted from some hitter-friendly confines. Adjusted for context, Redmond's career batting average is .295. You could make a very good case for Redmond having a better ability to hit for average.

At any rate, I just mentioned that Redmond's 2006 was similar to Cirillo's 2006, not that they were the same player.

Cirillo's old. His walk rate last season was average for a NL hitter. Anyway, the difference between .300 and .270 for a part-time player is something like 8 hits, which, from a prediction standpoint, is pretty small when it comes right down to it.

by ubelmann on Mar 10, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2004

In 2004, Cirillo only had 75 at bats, hardly enough to hit well for almost any player. 2002 was Cirillo's last as an everyday player and his inability to play everyday was manifesting itself pretty fully at that point.

2003, in between, yes, he had a poo year. I didn't say overall he's not had a couple poor years, but for the most part he's been very consistent, and has been so for the last two years. His average has fluctuated some, but his OBP and SLG have stayed almost the same. I don't really have a problem with the .270 BA projection (though I think a more likely floor is around .285 with about .315 as a likely ceiling), as much as I have a problem with the OBP and slugging. he's never had a season in which he hit at least .250 and didn't manage an OBP of .364. Likewise, he's never hit above .250 in a season and had a SLG below .414, what he had last year. Generally speaking, as his average has fluctuated some, his walks and extra base hits have adjusted enough to end up with a similar OPS.

Frankly, while your projection fit your theory well, it didn't really follow any kind of discernible pattern from Cirillo's career personally. Normally I'd just let it go and post my own entry, but I was a bit surprised by you that your projection didn't match his old patterns. Basically, before tis blows up into world war seven, bear in mind I'm picking this fight out of mutual respect.

NOW, we can fight about it.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 10, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cirillo

I think he'll benefit from being largely used against lefties, who he hits .400 against the last two years. I'll go slightly higher on the plate appearances since he'll be Grady's most popular pinch hitter, and he'll see more playing time the second half of the year when Punto struggles at the plate.

350 PA, .310/.365/.420 4 HR, 2 SB, 1 CS

by Waldo on Mar 10, 2007 6:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gardy

not Grady

by Waldo on Mar 10, 2007 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WayToo Optimistic

Waldo, you're right about Cirillo batting .400 against LHP's the last 2 years. But do you know how many AB's he got against them? A grand total of 130, an average of 65 per year. That's an extremely small sample size. Do you really think we can count on him repeating that performance in 2007?

Let's look at his career numbers against lefties: a .305 BA in 1457 AB's. And even that probably overstates his true ability because it includes his years at Coors Field, where he hit .381 against ALL kinds of pitching. I'd say he's really a .300 hitter against lefties at best.

How about against righties? He batted .243 against them the last 2 years in 342 AB's. Those numbers are a lot more believable than his LHP splits. Still, let's be generous and assume he's really an average hitter against them (about .265).

60% of his AB's came against RHP in 2005-06. Assuming the same split in 2007, that means his overall average will be around .280.

Finally, there is the question of playing time. It's hard to predict what Gardy will do. But, barring injury to Punto, I have a hard time believing he will give more than 250 PA's to an aging player who hits like LNP but probably can't field as well he does.

Call it 250 PA's .280/.350/.380 3HR 0/0 SB/CS.

by fjm235 on Mar 10, 2007 8:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Giving

Giving such credence to split stats, aka dividing up his total production, is a dubious exercise in small sample size. His splits are no reason to be pessimistic, and the relationships in your projection have no basis in past evidence.

Note that isn't to say it's impossible to happen, but there isn't precedent for it, so it isn't a goos statistical projection of data.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 11, 2007 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say

he would hit .400, I said he'd hit .310. Yeah its a little optimistic, but as has been said before, with players like this the average can vary quite a bit. I think playing on a good team will help, and as you pointed out, his split against lefties in his career is .300. I am choosing to go on the optimistic side, but projecting a player like this isn't much better than a crapshoot anyway so .260 and .330 isn't all that big a difference.

by Waldo on Mar 11, 2007 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

It's funny you point that out ubelmann, because I basically think of an INF version of Redmond when I think of Cirillo. As such, my prediction will be pretty similar:

320 PA, .290/.330/.370, 7 HR, 1 SB and 1 CS.

I think he'll get some more AB's (which will hurt his avg. some) because I see Punto struggling some and him getting a good chunk of time at 3b. I think he's going to also benefit from playing for a contending team, something he hasn't done for a LONG time.

by djskilbr on Mar 11, 2007 3:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

More PAs

Though he will start the year on the bench, Gardy plays the hot hand. And I don't project Punto getting hot, so Cerillo will gradually play more over there as the season goes along. Eventually, get more at bats than Punto on a weekly basis, unless Ryan acquires a third baseman.

350 PAs .290/.370/.390 4 HRs, 12 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 2 SBs, 2 CS.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 11, 2007 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs