Community Projection - Torii Hunter

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 12:55 AM EDT in News

I don't think that Torii Hunter causes much controversy amongst Twins fans. Some controversy, but not much. I think that Torii Hunter's contract causes a lot of controversy amongst fans. A guy who is a league average hitter and can play plus defense in center field is a valuable commodity. Just how valuable and how he fits into a $70M has been the subject of many debates, though.

Hunter's had injury troubles three years in a row now, with one DL stint each year. He probably should have missed more games last year, but he cares about winning and he thought that being out on the field, even at less than 100%, would help the team out.

So what does Torii have in store for us this year? A spectacular contract year? A so-so injury-riddled year? Something else?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo]

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I'll say...

500 PA, .285/.335/.525, 25 HR, 15 SB, 8 CS

With lots of strikeouts. But I'm okay with that if he's hitting for power. I'm operating on a hunch here that Torii's going to have some contract year mojo workin' for him.

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 2:08 AM EDT reply actions

Plate Appearances

The plate appearance number looks pretty low - are you predicting that he'll miss some more time with an injury? If so, how do you think his defense will be? I realize that isn't part of the projection, but I'm curious anyway.

Oh, while I'm at it - 611 PA, .301/.345/.512, 27 HR, 21 SB, 8 CS

More optimistic than I thought it would be, but I don't care.

by BeefMaster on Mar 12, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Given his history...

...it's really not that low. By my count, Hunter's averaged about 530 PA/season over the last three years. I think that given his injury history, if he does get injured, there's a good chance it'll be for a long time.

I don't know whether or not Hunter will be injured, but I know there's a reasonable chance it'll happen, so I'm not going to give Hunter 150+ games worth of at-bats.

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Decieving

The trick with simply averaging the last three years is he had two typical years where he had almost 600 PA, and one year with the big injury where he had only about 400 PA. It isn't really a case where you can land between the two, it's kind of one or the other. I figured he had a better chance of staying mostly healthy than having a big injury.

That being said, saying he'll have a slightly more serious injury this year that will cost him an extra 50 PA's (about an extra dozen days of playing) is a reasonable assumption.

What do you think about his defense? I think that is that part more in question as his offense stays mostly consistent from year to year. I'm hoping he can be what he was at the start of last year for the whole season, which was still very good, if not what it once was. If he plays d like he did at the end of last season for long this year, it will really hurt.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 12, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Defense

I think he'll be fine. His ineffectiveness exactly corresponds to his injury. When you play at that high of a level, small physical ailments make a big difference in results. For example, when his heal hurt, he ran on the balls of his feet, which didn't allow his head to stay still as he ran. That hurt his ability to track fly balls. And the ankle problem hurt his first step. Put them together, and he went from terrific to average (at best).

I think we saw the real Hunter in September when he was healthy. Assuming he stays healthy, I think he'll be the same old Torii.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 12, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

I think you're being to nice to Hunter's defense. His defense was quite awful for awhile there during the season. Even at the end, he was still not 100% and his defense was way under what it ought be.

He should be recovered next year, but we;ll see if he doesn't have another leg injury...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 12, 2007 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

On average...

...I'm going to be just as close (if not closer) than you will be by projecting the average than by trying to get lucky and guess whether or not he's going to get injured. We simply don't know whether or not he's going to get injured, so I'm going with something between "completely healthy" and "misses half the season to major injury." (And it's not like an in-between 30-game DL stint is totally out of the question, either.)

Hunter's D was fine by the last couple of weeks of the season. He needs to be smarter, but I think that will come. He'll probably be an above average defender again this year, even if he isn't the best in all of baseball.

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll say

600 PA
.290/.340/.535
30 HR
20 SB, 12 CS

I'm predicting a career year for Hunter at the dish. It's a contract year, and this has to be the least amount of pressure he's felt in his career to carry the offense. He will always strike out a lot more than he walks, but his power numbers are always better when he's being aggressive, so I can live with that.

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 12, 2007 2:39 AM EDT reply actions

I agree

He's going to have a career year. By May 15 or so he'll be hitting in between Morneau and Kubel (in my view). That should do WONDERS for him. I'll go even higher:

600 PA, .290/.345/.550, 33 HR, 18 SB, 10 CS

And the defense will be back. He won't be 2003 defense level Hunter, but he'll be a LOT better than last year, making our outfield defense pretty darn good with Kubel and Cuddyer (yes, I'm banking on Kubel being the primary LF before long).

by djskilbr on Mar 12, 2007 3:17 AM EDT reply actions

Torii

598 PA
.284/.344/.501
29 HR
20 SB, 6 CS

by Diggity Dino on Mar 12, 2007 8:39 AM EDT reply actions

Torii

I'm pretty much in line with everyone else here.

550 PA
.287/.338/.520
32 HR
21 SB, 11 CS

(the steal 2nd before the pitcher goes into a motion thing is sort of expected these days and he'll get caught a lot more this year)

by TheMattWilke on Mar 12, 2007 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

My guess

600 PA

.285/.330/.530 34 HR 30 SB (healthy foot/ankle) 7 CS

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 12, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

Torii

600 PA

.280/.330/.495, 28 HR, 22 SB, 11 CS

by Waldo on Mar 12, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

I'll

I'll predict the same line he has pretty much every year. HE's amazingly consistent.

I highly doubt he'll pass his career 2002 season of a .524 SLG though, just a note.

SO I'll take last year's numbers to hope he'll stay a little healthy and give a little boost for the contract year.

Really, the offense of HUnter isn't what's so difficult to project. How well he'll play defense is another story, and that's whats REALLY important from him.

PA 580
.275/.333/.490 29 HR 20 SB 7 CS

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 12, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions

The difference between...

...Hunter's .490 last season and .524 is really pretty small--about 20 bases over the course of 557 at bats. It's not some pie-in-the-sky dream to think he could find 20 extra bases somewhere, especially if he stays healthy.

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

It's

It's a lot though when you consider he had a career high in homers last year. It's seven single become homers. Or maybe lets say it's 5 doubles become homers and 10 singles become doubles. That's quite a lot.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 12, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

No, it's still not that much...

You claimed that Hunter is "amazingly consistent." Over the last six years, Hunter's average season-ending SLG is .479. The standard deviation in his SLG over that six-year period has been about 27 points. (I think it's also likely that part of the reason Hunter's season averages have been so consistent is just dumb luck. I don't think that Torii has any sort of special ability that helps him match his numbers year after year.) If you think he's likely to slug .490, then .524 simply is too close to .490 to be out of the question.

I admit that it would be optimistic to expect .524, but it's surely not crazy. Fluctuations like that in slugging happen all the time.

by ubelmann on Mar 12, 2007 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I have two words for everyone...

Joe Vavra.

That is all.

by djskilbr on Mar 12, 2007 4:41 PM EDT reply actions

Vavra

Can you pinpoint the exact game last season when Torii started listening to him?

by Chaddens on Mar 13, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm just saying...

that he can only help. In fact, I think it's a plus for everyone in the lineup. If EVERYONE else in the lineup (sans Cuddyer to a certain extent) is preaching patience, Hunter has to see it and use it at some point.

by djskilbr on Mar 13, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you...

That's what I'm saying - Torii finally listened to Vavra and his season "turned around" or improved - whatever one would call it. A lot of guys had big years last year and I think Vavra had a lot to do with it. Hopefully he can get Punto back to what he was (or Carew can) so he's not taking the big long swings...

Another question with that - what does Vavra say to Mauer? Hey Mauer, you want me to put pine tar on your bat for you?