Community Projection - Jason Kubel

by ubelmann on Mar 14, 2007 2:14 AM EDT in News Comment 20 comments

I think this will surprise no one who watched Kubel closely last year:

Pre-ASB .291/.324/.485 Post-ASB .163/.209/.233

There's nothing at all to like about his post-All-Star Break performance. He was slow, grounded into a bunch of DPs, didn't hit for average, didn't hit for power, and didn't walk very much. I'm sure he'd like to just forget the whole ordeal.

Of course, Kubel's knee clearly plays a role here. He didn't lose all of his speed for no reason--his knee problems were sapping him of his speed, and likely hampering his abilities at the plate.

So, is the turf going to get to Kubel again eventually? Will he be able to make adjustments when he's pitched in different ways? Was he just an over-hyped prospect who won't turn out? Or is he a stud hitter who just needs his body to remain healthy for two seconds?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer]

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I'm a believer

400 PA, .280/.350/.485, 15 HR, 3 SB, 1 CS

The beginning of even better things to come.

by ubelmann on Mar 14, 2007 3:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll say he gets a pretty full 550 PA.

He's a tad tough to predict, but I'll give:

.290/.350/.510 18 HR, 30 2B, 5SB, 3 CS

I think he finally gets the breakout year we've been waiting on. All he's needed? A healthy chance...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 14, 2007 4:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's

That's basically like having a left handed Cuddyer added in the lineup, by the way...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 14, 2007 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel will be better...

...than most people expect, and this will be the year it finally happens. I look for only 500 PA cause early in the year Gardy will rest him more than needed against lefties (numbers against righties and lefties will be nearly the same). Will spend year alternating between DH and left field with more playing time in left as the year goes on.

450AB .316/.384/.529 22HR, 26-2B, 2-3B, 6SB, 4CS, 93rbi

by roger on Mar 14, 2007 7:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kubes

466 PA
.289/.337/.461
14 HR, 4 SB, 3 CS

Not bad, but his breakout year will be 2008.

by Diggity Dino on Mar 14, 2007 8:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm optimisitic

He's back to his 2004 form, which translated to MLB pitching is close to what Roger has predicted.

500 PA (440 AB) .312/.394/.510 20 HR, 36 2B, 5 SB, 3 CS

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 14, 2007 8:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As in general...

I'm with you CMath, though I'll go even higher on te HR's at 23. He's going to be a machine.

And I'll make another prediction; that he plays GREAT in LF 2nd half for us making a number of fine plays/webgems.

by djskilbr on Mar 14, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like it

Imagine having three plus arms in the outfield. Not many teams will want to take the extra base against us.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 15, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed...

i can't wait for that offense either.

by djskilbr on Mar 15, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

500 PA
.285/.335/.485, 19 HR, 4 SB, 3 CS

Looks like I'm in line with everyone else.

by Waldo on Mar 14, 2007 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pessimism!

370 PA, .257/.311/.390, 11 HR, 2 SB, 3 CS

I'm not really sure why, but I'm just not bullish on Kubel right now.

by BeefMaster on Mar 14, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Koobs

500 PA

.280/.350/.500
24 HR
4 SB, 4 CS

Believer

by TheMattWilke on Mar 14, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kubel

525 PA

.290/.330/.490
22 HR
2 SB
3 CS

I think everyone would be happy with this production, and 2008 will be the "big" year for Kubel.

by JP on Mar 14, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Consistency

I agree with most of you

500 PA, .300/.333/.500 23HR 3sb 3cs

RBI are going to be interesting with Kubel and White...depending on where they hit in the order...

by Chaddens on Mar 14, 2007 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nostradamus sez

Even when it is clear Kubel can't run out a grounder people in Twinkie Town will be bitching that he doesn't get to play enough.

by wcooley on Mar 14, 2007 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But

At this point it is pretty clear he can do that.

Kubel was one of the game's elite hitting prospects a couple years ago. He was derailed for sure by a freak injury, but now that he's back, there's no reason not to be prepared for those old expectations out of him.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 14, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is fashionable...

But you gotta keep in mind that when Koobz wasn't doing so hot and Rondell couldn't hit my fastball, we had to grasp at some kinda straw last year.

by ravenfly on Mar 14, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure there were people here....

...who wanted him on the DL when it was clear that he couldn't run last July. Keeping him around when he wasn't contributing didn't help anything.

by ubelmann on Mar 14, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it is worth

TR just said on the radio during the Yankee game that Kubel is headed for DH. Unless someone heard it different that is what he said 30 minutes ago. He was very careful to note the difference between an inked-in player and a penciled-in player. He also said that all will be as-is until the 22nd-23rd or 24th when some guys eliminate themselves or injuries help the powers that-be make the cuts to fill maybe two spots depending on the number of pitchers they bring north. It's always the same, everyone plays some then around 22nd to 24th the players inked-in start playing together to get in the grove for a week before breaking camp. The way he talked about the pitchers Boof has made it so there is only one pitching spot open in the rotation. Durbins fate may lie in the number of pitchers they bring North, as-in will he be in the bull pen or not. TR sees him as not durable enough to depend on him in the rotation. Anyone else hear the interview?? What was your take???

"hi everybody" Herb Carneal Hall of fame baseball announcer.

by firstatbat61 on Mar 14, 2007 9:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs