Community Projection - Johan Santana

by ubelmann on Mar 15, 2007 10:41 PM EDT in News

I can't say anything about Santana that hasn't already been said multiple times, so I won't try. What's he going to do this year, win two Cy Youngs?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel]

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I'll say...

205 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9

It's really hard to keep pitching at his level. If anyone can do it, it's Santana, but I'm hedging my bet the tiniest little bit here.

by ubelmann on Mar 15, 2007 11:49 PM EDT reply actions

Wimp

Hedging your bets?

Wimp.

230 IP, 2.74 ERA, 240 K, 9.39K/9 1,76 BB/9, .9 HR/9 1.02 GB/FB

Look at his numbers the last three years. His fielder independent numbers are amazingly consistent. I'm basically predicting an azerage of th last two years. Three years ago was almost exactly the same as well, though he struck out a few more but walked a few more as well...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 16, 2007 1:04 AM EDT reply actions

I'm going big here...

I think he's going to put together 2 great halfs finally and have a season for the ages. We've all waited for it for a while now(not that anything he's done has disappointed, obviously); I think this is the year.

I'd put it similar to your numbers, but I think his ERA is going to be around 2.50, maybe even just south of that. His K's will be closer to 260 I think. And with good run support, he's going to make a run at 25 wins this year, though he might "fall short" at 24 or so.

How's that for wimpy, Adam? :)

by djskilbr on Mar 16, 2007 1:43 AM EDT reply actions

Johan

235 IP
2.65 ERA
9.3 K/9
1.7 BB/9
0.9 HR/9

And, of course, another Cy. All he needs is consistent run support and I agree that 25 wins is possible.

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 16, 2007 2:23 AM EDT reply actions

One

One thing to note is that I don't think our defense is quite what it was a few years ago, so he'll have to be THAT much better to nake up for the few extra hits.

But it is possible that he'll avoid the "high" 4.00 ERA in April and May like he has a tendency to sport and have a whole season of amazing-ness.

Actually, he cam close to doing that last year. His early season struggles were shorter than usual, and not so bad, posting a 4.5 ERA in April, but then dropping down below 3 after that. Ony in July did he have an ERA above 3 after April (including 2 below 2.00 and the month of June with a total 1.05 ERA). In July, he posted another ERA in the mid fours because of the blister on his finger that messed up his curveball. Had it not bee for that month, he'd have about a 2.35 ERA for the year. Only a third of a run lower than he actually ended up, but third of a run is majorly impressive when you're already down that low.

Anyways, it's silly to demand more. What will get will be amazing.

As usual though, there is the unspoken possibility of the type of thing that happens to pitchers mort unavoidably. And as usual, if such a thing were to happen, even in a relatively minor and non-permanent way, it's all over and the team is done.

They have to resign this guy. They HAVE to. I'll personally offer to.. um... give him my... i dunno. Whatever of mine he wants that will keep him here...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 16, 2007 7:04 AM EDT reply actions

CyTana...

...Will this be his third? I say yes and should be his fourth.

I am of the opinion that the WBC hurt Santana last year, especially down the stretch. Rather than getting ready in April he was pitching important games for his country. Watching him go 5-6 innings in a couple of those games, I was concerned that those innings would hurt him late in the season. Reports that he was beat up in September confirm that the WBC may have had an effect on Santana's season with the Twins.

This year, I predict that Santana will be:

22 wins
7 losses
227 innings pitched
241 strikeouts
44 walks
0.987 WHIP
2.39 ERA

I also am on record that the Twins will win 94 games. That is 26 games over .500. To accomplish this, the staff will need to have Santana at 10 games over .500, the bullpen 10 games over and the other 4-5-6-7 starters 6 games over .500. Now if Santana is 22-7, 15 games over .500 (he was 13 over last year), and the returning members of the bullpen are 11 over (they were 16 over last year)...that is 26 over and the other starters must only pitch .500 ball.

GO TWINS!

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Mar 16, 2007 8:01 AM EDT reply actions

The

The one problem with that is the statistical evidence does not support him wearing down down the stretch. His third and second best months of the season were August and September respectively (his best was June). If anything, the WBC helped him get off to a quick start because his April struggles were milder than they have been before in the past and he had the best May of his career. His mid-season struggles came in July, but that was because of the blister, not fatigue, and after he healed his finger up he jumped right back on the wagon with those great last two months.

He didn't look overtired for the post season either turning in a great 8 inning, 5 hit, 8 strikeout, 2 run performance against the Oakland A's. He got the loss, but that was more because of our suddenly anemic offense couldn't hit sucker-baller Barry Zito's junk for crap.

I'm not saying the WBC maybe didn't hurt some people (It very well could have negatively affected Silva), but the theory that he broke down doesn't hold much water.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 16, 2007 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Just....

...commenting on what I have heard several people mention this spring, that Johann was battling several injuries late last year. I know his stats were very good, but maybe had he been more healthy he would have shut Oakland out that day.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Mar 16, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Fun one

Now this is fun...

236 IP, 2.69 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9

possibly another pitching triple crown.

by Diggity Dino on Mar 16, 2007 8:12 AM EDT reply actions

Ol' Shoulders

Because he was already prepared for the WBC last season he didn't seem to have his usual pre-June 1 slow start in 2006. I'm sort of expecting it to happen again this season. But the immediate adjustments and corrections he has been making in Spring Training just lead me to believe that he's just a better and more mature pitcher than he was in years past.

225 IP
3.10 ERA
9.3 K/9
1.6 BB/9
1.15 HR/9

Best in the business

I love this man

by TheMattWilke on Mar 16, 2007 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

Continued dominance

At 28, he is just hitting his prime. Without the WBC to mess with his arm, I expect he'll be able to have his usual amazing second half this year.

240 IP, 2.64 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, .89 HR/9

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 16, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

Johan Cy-Tana

230 IP, 2.80 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, .95 HR/9

23 Wins, 6 Losses, and another Cy Young. How lucky are we to have a guy this good pitching for the Twins? And he could quite possibly better many of these predictions this year. WOW!!!

by Waldo on Mar 16, 2007 10:48 AM EDT reply actions