Community Projection - Carlos Silva

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 12:34 AM EDT in News

Will the sinker sink? It sure didn't last year.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Johan Santana]

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I'll say...

190 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9

I'm more worried about him losing innings due to ineffectiveness than injury. A lot of people would complain about a 5.00 ERA, but last year the AL average ERA was 4.56, and starters' ERA was higher than relievers' ERA. I'll be satisfied if Silva pitches a 5.00 ERA on the button.

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 1:46 AM EDT reply actions

Sad to say ...

Your numbers strike me as about right.

The one I like the least is "190 innings" - if his ERA is up there, I'd sure like to believe we have someone somewhere in the organization who can do better than that.

by BD57 on Mar 19, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

A 5.00 ERA...

...isn't really that bad. The stigma attached to a 5.00 ERA dates back a couple of decades when league scoring was about a run less per team per game.

In all of baseball last year (AL and NL) there were only 70 pitchers who threw over 160 innings and had an ERA under 5.00. With 30 teams in the league, that works out to just 2.3 starters per team that can both stay healthy and have an ERA under 5.00.

The Twins have a good group of SP prospects at the top level of their farm system, but in terms of value to a typical team, an innings eater with a 5.00 ERA isn't worthless. Which is to say, there are many teams who don't have better in-house options.

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

Maybe, but we AREN'T everyone else. We're a team trying to make the playoffs and we're a team loaded with young pitching talent. What everyone else does is never good or right for us.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 19, 2007 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm just saying...

...that we need to adjust our mindset for the times. It isn't the sixties anymore, mid-4 ERAs aren't to be scoffed at, and a 5.00 ERA isn't far behind league average. The times, they have a-changed.

Obviously, it's better to have pitchers who allow as few runs as possible, but even very good teams--even championship teams--can't find five starters to give them 190+ innings and a sub-5.00 ERA.

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I

I will be primarily disappointed if he has that many innings because that will mean he wasn't every replaced by a young guy, and I'm thinking there is a pretty good chance that those guys can all out perform that. At any rate, I think if he's putting up an ERA like that the other guy deserve chances to show he can do better, so I'd want to see him only with about 140 IP from time seeing if the prospects could do the job instead.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 19, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Garza

Throw out his first start, when he was too nervous to complete his wind-up, and the last one, when he had nothing left in the tank, and Garza had an ERA around 4 last year. And he's grown up some since then. So it's reasonable to think that will be his ERA this year, if given a chance. It makes little sense to keep a guy with a 5 ERA in the majors and a guy who would have a 4 ERA in the minors. And Garza isn't the only pitcher on his way to Rochester who's better than Silva right now. There are two others. So while it might be OK for the Reds or Pirates to give a guy with a 5 ERA 190 innings, it won't do for the Twins, not with the quality arms they have knocking on the door.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 20, 2007 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

4 ERA

In my mind, a 4 ERA would be a very reasonable and conservative estimate that takes into account some rookie learning curve. He's got a bright future, and that future isn't very far away at all.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 20, 2007 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm MUCH less optimistic...

I see close to a 7 ERA (something like 6.76), 1.8 HR/9, 3.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and he'll be out of the rotation (God willing) around May 1st as Garza comes up and takes over. I also expect Perkins to be up around then for Ponson (probably making it up BEFORE Garza) judging by the comments from the club recently.

I expect he'll be moved to someone much as Lohse was last year.

by djskilbr on Mar 19, 2007 1:59 AM EDT reply actions

Silva

Hard to know how this will turn out, but I think he'll improve over last year and stay in the rotation the entire season.

4.87 ERA
177 IP, 72 K, 27 BB, 33 HR, so I guess that works out to:

3.66 K/9, 1.37 BB/9, 1.68 HR/9

by Diggity Dino on Mar 19, 2007 9:12 AM EDT reply actions

My prediction

36 IP, 6.68 ERA, 3 SO/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3 HR/9

He gets shipped out in mid May and Garza comes up to replace him.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 19, 2007 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

I agree 95%

I don't think he'll get to 36ip. At least I hope he doesn't get to that.

by Chaddens on Mar 19, 2007 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Silva

If this spring was going more smoothly I'd be more optimistic, but it looks like he's still battling some psychological issues that I'd expect to carry over into the season. I do expect the strikeouts to be up this year as he puts a greater emphasis on off-speed pitches and isn't as reliant on the sinker.

120 IP
5.20 ERA
1.7 WHIP
4.8 K/9
2.3 BB/9
1.45 HR/9

Out of the rotation June 15.

by TheMattWilke on Mar 19, 2007 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

I hope this works!

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 19, 2007 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

Oh, and...

...in case anyone is confused, this puts me in the NOT optimistic camp.

I'll say:

115 IP
6.20 ERA
4.2 K/9
1.8 BB/9
1.7 HR/9

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 19, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

OMG...

if he has those numbers and gets to 115 IP I am going to be angry as hell!

by djskilbr on Mar 19, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Unlike Ponson,

I think Silva will be on a very long leash, and will have to pitch bad for much of the season before he gets yanked from the rotation. He got to pitch almost the whole season last year.

That said, I really hope I'm wrong about either the pessimistic prediction, or the long leash.

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Mar 19, 2007 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Silva

I think he'll stick around until June 1st. I'd like to see him gone by May, but he's earning a good chunk of money so they'll "give him every chance to succeed".

65 IP

6.75 ERA, 3.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.0 HR/9

by Waldo on Mar 19, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

This is perhaps...

...the most interesting group of projections yet. We've got a pretty wide range of outcomes going on here.

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

Wide range yes...

...but no one is projecting an era under 4, and I suspect the guys are somewhat accurate in the case of Mr. Silva. Apparently he is a good guy who puts too much pressure on himself. I wish him well and hope we are all proven wrong. But my vote goes with the group that says Garza replaces him around the first of June.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Mar 19, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Optimism!

I have the opposite feeling about Silva as I did about Kubel - I'm optimistic while everyone else is pessimistic.

208 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.01 K/9, 0.91 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9

by BeefMaster on Mar 19, 2007 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

Jeckyl & Hyde

I saw someone post Silva's stats broken down to his wins & losses last year. It would appear that his overall stats are a bit deceiving. One caveat, I did not verify the stats myself.

I just looked at his last 10 starts last year. His record was 2 wins 6 losses 2 no decisions. In his 2 wins (14 innings, 2 earned runs): in his 2 no decisions (11 innings, 2 earned runs); in his 6 losses (31.1 innings,30 earned runs).

In his 11 wins, he had an ERA of mid/high 3's. In his 15 losses his ERA was astronomical. Only game which was an exception was 0-1 loss to KC.

Silva's problem is consistancy, not capability.

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Mar 19, 2007 8:55 PM EDT reply actions

Can't

Silva was one of my favorite players in 04 and 05. We called him "The Train," or a number of other nicknames. He gave the team a chance to win almost every time he came out. He was amazingly consistent and he ate innings like crazy. in 05, he was better than a mere inning eater, he was one of the leagues best pitchers, like Wang last year only with less wins because of the difference in offenses.

But I've been losing more and more confidence in him as spring training goes on. Then I read things like this:

"Despite Silva giving up some runs, including a home run to the opposite field by a lefty, Gardenhire was encouraged by the movement in Silva's sinker. There are still times when the motion is a bit robotic, but the hope is that Silva can get that pitch to work along with his changeup.

'He definitely needs to change speeds more,' Gardenhire said. "If he's too hard on everything, that's when it really blends together."

So were not concerned about him getting knocked around by a bunch of AA and AAA players? Still giving u homers and making many big mistakes? Still needing to see him put everything together better? We've been waiting all spring for that and it hasn't gotten any better at all.

I've got little faith left at this point. Here is my projection in kind:

45 IP, 6.20 ERA, 2.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.35 GO/AO, 1.9 HR/9.

It's sad, and I'll miss the Silva Bullet, but I think Silva's gonna get pulled after about 6 starts. He'll probably get a little minor league assignment, and then a short shot in the bullpen, but I don't see much success for Silva this year. He'll be replaced with Matt Garza very soon.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 19, 2007 9:20 PM EDT reply actions

Baseball

wanted offense when they lowered the mound. offense puts butts in the seats and gets the big TV contracts that MLB and the MLPA both want. If Carlos goes to pot pull him early and use the bull pen. But I don't see the Twins sending him to Rochester to figure it out. The bull Pen maybe but not Rochester. They have too much money in him for AAA.
If Garza looks good in AAA maybe trade Carlos to the NL for whatever, but they will not bench or send Carlos to AAA that much I'm sure of. We still play budget ball in MN and paying a guy 4.3M to get his head game figured out won't happen. So hope he can get you to the 5th 6th without to much damage or at least in reach for our offense and use the bull pen. Those are the two ways I see it going.