Community Projection - Ramon Ortiz

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 9:38 PM EDT in News

Like Cirillo, we haven't seen too much of Ramon Ortiz around these parts. His 12 spring training innings have some people excited, but I would note that of the starters, Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva had the two best ERA's in spring training last year.

Still, it's possible that Ortiz could show some improvement under Rick Anderson. Will Ortiz reach new heights at age 34? Or will old dogs forever be stuck with old tricks? How much will Ortiz enjoy pitching to the DH this year?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Johan Santana
Carlos Silva]

Tweet Comment 25 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'll say...

180 IP, 5.50 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9

How long of a leash does $3M buy him? That's the tricky part, I think.

by ubelmann on Mar 19, 2007 10:50 PM EDT reply actions

Li'l Ortiz

Man do I want to be optimistic after the Spring he's having. The only way I can see it working well is if Gardy never lets him pitch beyond the 5th.

160 IP
4.90 ERA
1.55 WHIP
5.2 K/9
2.2 BB/9
1.3 HR/9

Fingers crossed, I have a feeling he's going to have the longest leash of the 3 vets. So I'm the behind him over anyone else even though I hated his signing.

by TheMattWilke on Mar 19, 2007 11:15 PM EDT reply actions

Ortiz

120 innings (18 starts)
4.5 ERA
6 K/9
2 BB/9
1 HR/9

Traded at the deadline to make room for Garza or Perkins.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 20, 2007 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

I'll be doing...

...backflips in the street if Ortiz does that. Ortiz hasn't had that kind of strikeout rate as a starter since 2002, and he didn't get younger or less hittable. And that home run rate would be the lowest ever in his career, and 0.4 HR/9 lower than his career rate.

by ubelmann on Mar 20, 2007 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

revised numbers

I know spring training numbers are meaningless, but the scouting reports are very encouraging. The big change is, well, his change. He all but abandoned it the last couple of years. But he's been showcasing it this spring and missing a lot of bats with it. If he can continue to use it against real MLB line-ups like he has against the ST line-ups, I think he'll strike a lot of guys out. But looking at it, 6/9 is a bit too optimistic. His numbers will be more like 4.5/9. And he'll give up 1.5 HR/9. Both are good ratios for him, though.

Joe Mauer for MVP (for real).

by cmathewson on Mar 20, 2007 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

...those peripherals are more in line with what Ortiz has done in the past and more in line with what a 4.50 ERA guy would post.

by ubelmann on Mar 20, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

Yeah, is he puts up that kind of an ERA, they won't trade him, they they shouldn't.

Thos perophirals are unlikely though...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 20, 2007 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Ya...

I don't think it'll be quite that good for peripherals, but I also am pretty optimistic on Ortiz. I could see roughly a 4.50 ERA at this point for him. I just think Mauer/Redmond will have a calming influence on him for those "big innings" and that will help him tremendously.

And I too could see him being traded at the deadline, but more likely to make room for Slowey. I think both Perkins and Garza will be in the rotation before June begins (for Silva and Ponson).

by djskilbr on Mar 20, 2007 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh...

and, this was my least favorite signing of the offseason for the Twins, by a long shot. And I'm even very optimistic at this stage. I guess when you're looking at the trash that are Silva/Ponson, that'll do that.

by djskilbr on Mar 20, 2007 2:38 AM EDT reply actions

I think...

...he will get it done, and resign for another year or two (with Silva being gone).

196 ip
4.16 era
1.16 WHIP
0.725 K/IP

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Mar 20, 2007 8:07 AM EDT reply actions

Whoa

I have to wear sunglasses to view the sunny optimism of those numbers. I hope you're right (except for the resigning part).

by TheMattWilke on Mar 20, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Ortiz

195 IP

4.75 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9

Not great, but I'd be ok with this.

by Waldo on Mar 20, 2007 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

Ortiz

220IP, 2.95 ERA, 190K, 35 BB, 20 HR.
Finishes second in Cy Young voting to Santana.

Someone has to say it. If I'm wrong, no one will remember, but if I'm right, boy did I call that one.

We're not betting on our predictions, are we? I may need some serious odds.

by snolls on Mar 20, 2007 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

Sub-Prediction

If your prediction holds true:

Rick Anderson cures cancer in August.

by TheMattWilke on Mar 20, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

And stops the Bird Flu...

Roger, do you really see the Twins resigning him even with a good year? Would seem like a waste of money to me with so much talent sure to be ready next year.

by djskilbr on Mar 20, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes,

I think if he has a good year, Mr. Ryan will sign him for another year or two. It appears, if we can believe what we read, that Ortiz is the happiest he may have been since breaking into the league. It also appears that he has total confidence in Rick Anderson. Can he turn it around, yes. Will he, I certainly hope so and kinda expect it.

Regarding signing, Gardy and Ryan both want some veterans in the rotation. We won't know anything about the status of Liriano until early next summer. Will the Twins want 4 young starters in the rotation next season, I doubt it.

What I am saying is that if Ortiz does well and Silva doesn't, Ortiz will be the second veteran they bring back to go with Santana and 3 young kids from the group of Bonser, Garza, Slowey, Perkins, and Liriano.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Mar 20, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Right...

but then won't Bonser be a "vet" by then if he has a good year?

Then we'd likely have 2 2nd yr players (Garza/Perkins) and probably basically a rook (Slowey) to fight with Liriano for 3 spots.

I could certainly see it happening, and THEN a trade that year if Liriano is healthy. But otherwise I just don't think it makes sense resources wise.

by djskilbr on Mar 20, 2007 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions

How about

How about this:

First Two months:

3.60 ERA, 8 K/9

Last Four months:

Steroids suspension

That actually wouldn't be so bad. At least wed have gotten the two good months out of him, then we could go with kids.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 20, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Except For

...the loss of a roster spot for 4 months! I am correct in assuming that a steroid suspension costs your team a roster spot while you're suspended, right?

-Flip

by Flip27 on Mar 20, 2007 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

No...

No, that isn't true at all. This isn't an NHL power play.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 21, 2007 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Without looking at the rule...

...there's probably a 40-man roster spot that we'd be forfeiting.

by ubelmann on Mar 21, 2007 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

You wouldn't be able to replace that guy on the roster without the normal process. The point was if Ortiz got suspended, we'd probably cut him anyway.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Mar 21, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I am curious now...

can you cut a guy for steroids? I can't remember. Or is it like the NFL where the player has the ability to stay through his suspension?

I just honestly can't remember. MLB's player union is about the most powerful player union in the world (which I despise) so I would assume that it's the latter.

by djskilbr on Mar 21, 2007 2:24 AM EDT reply actions

Well

Well you' dbe allowed to remove them from the roster, but I'm sure you'd have to deal with them normally, ie go through waivers, etc. You can cut anyone you want from your team, but in baseball you still have to pay them and you'll probably lose them.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged