Community Projection - Luis Castillo

by ubelmann on Mar 6, 2007 3:08 AM EST in News Comment 10 comments

Last year, Luis Castillo's hitting was nearly the same as it was in '05 Florida:

AVG/ SLG '05 .301/.374 '06 .296/.370

Unfortunately, his offense took a pretty big dip thanks to a sharp decrease in walk rate, as his OBP dropped from .391 to .358. That still made him a pretty decent 2B, but I don't think it's unfair to characterize him as a mild disappointment.

What lies ahead for 2007? Injury? An return to high OBP? Something else?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau]

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I'll say...

500 PA, .290/.375/.370, 2 HR, 15 SB, 7 CS

It feels a little funny to put down a lower SLG than OBP.

by ubelmann on Mar 6, 2007 3:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I rode down the ...

...elevator with Luis in Cleveland one Sunday morning last summer. He was in front of us as we left the elevator and walked with a noticeable limp. I understand that he played the entire season with various leg injuries which have to have an effect on his performance and his appeared lack of hustle.

by roger on Mar 6, 2007 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I certainly...

...have no problem with his "lack of hustle." He has leg problems, and it's not worth risking his legs on routine grounders with two outs in the inning. He ran hard when there was a worthwhile reward or a reasonable chance that he would succeed, and he took it easy when there was practically no chance for him to succeed. It was the smart thing to do in his position.

It was still disappointing that his legs held him back as much as they did. It wasn't totally unexpected given his history and that he was moving to turf, but it was still somewhat disappointing. Looking at the splits, it seems like his legs really hurt him in June, but after the All-Star Break, he was mostly back to normal.

by ubelmann on Mar 6, 2007 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Luis

518 PA
.288/.366/.366
2 HR
19 SB, 6 CS

by Diggity Dino on Mar 6, 2007 8:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Luis

425 PA
.300/.375/.370
1 HR, 20SB

I don't think he'll be healthy for the whole season playing half of his games on turf, but when he's playing he'll play well. He'll miss about a month with some kind of leg injury, and we'll get a sneak preview of his replacement. After the season he signs with a team that plays on grass.

by JP on Mar 6, 2007 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed wholeheartedly...

with this.

He'll get back up to .300 as he adjusts to the AL and won't have to start the year in the 2-hole. But I agree that he'll miss at LEAST a 2-3 week stretch and we'll see our 2008 2b some (Casilla).

by djskilbr on Mar 6, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs