Hunter Or Santana?

by Jesse on Jul 17, 2007 1:45 AM EDT in News

Signing one will essentially rule out a signing of the other.

Ten years ago the Minnesota Twins didn't have this problem. Ten years ago Carl Pohlad wasn't concerned with a starting pitcher who could average $27 million per year on the open market, he was concerned with how to turn a profit on the Twins and their $27 million dollar payroll. Asking the question Who can we afford to pay is still relevant, it just has taken on a completely different meaning.

There are more than a handful of household names now playing for the Twins. Instead of those names belonging to aging players like Steinbach, Molitor or Aguilera they belong to Hunter, Mauer, Morneau, Santana, Castillo, Cuddyer and Nathan; players largely in their prime with at least one more good contract ahead of them. Over the next two years, all seven of those "household" names will be looking for, or be scheduled to make, more money.

Joe Mauer is under contract, but Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer will each be receiving some nice raises through arbitration over the next couple of years. Luis Castillo and Torii Hunter are free agents following 2007, while Johan Santana and Joe Nathan will be free agents following 2008. Before we can find out who we could keep, let's find a base for what our yearly salaries could look like over the next three seasons. We'll use a recent John Bonnes piece as our starting point.

Basically, assuming no re-signings and allowing only assumptions for serfs and arbitration-eligible players, based on John's estimations the concrete Twins payroll in the near future looks like this:
POS 2008 2009 2010 C Mauer Mauer Mauer 1B Morneau Morneau Morneau 2B Casilla Casilla Casilla SS Bartlett Bartlett Bartlett 3B Punto RF Cuddyer Cuddyer Cuddyer CF LF DH Kubel Kubel

BMI BCI BIF Rodriguez BOF Tyner BOF BC Redmond Redmond Redmond

S1 Santana S2 Liriano Liriano Liriano S3 Bonser Bonser Bonser S4 Slowey Slowey Slowey S5 Garza Garza Garza

CL Nathan SU Rincon SU Reyes MR Crain Crain MR Neshek Neshek Neshek LR Guerrier

Payroll $57.75 MM $52.65 MM $57.35 MM
Obviously these figures are just a rough estimate, but they should give you a general idea of Minnesota's situation in the coming years. I'll refer you once more to John's initial post for status information on each player.

Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter made his debut for the Twins way back in 1997. He appeared in one game as a pinch-runner for Terry Steinbach. He was up for 135 games in 1999, and has been the Twins full-time center fielder since 2001. He turns 32 on Wednesday, and is having his best offensive season to date.

Last week, Ichiro Suzuki (who will turn 34 in October) signed a 5-year, $100 million dollar extension through 2012. Prior to last year, Johnny Damon signed a 4-year, $52 million dollar deal to sign with the Yankees. Sadly, signing Hunter will mean putting up something closer to Ichiro money than Damon money.

I don't believe in a "hometown discount". I do however believe the Twins could offer "enough", which could end up being slightly less than what Torii could get elsewhere. Attempting to be realistic while straddling the line between optimistic and the entirely possible, let's say the Twins are able to sign Hunter to a 5-year, $90 million dollar contract. This is an average of $18,000,000 a season, or the equivalent yearly salary for what the Blue Jays paid Vernon Wells this past December. If Torii Hunter were to sign this deal with the Twins, it would be very fair compared to what he could get elsewhere.

Johan Santana

Johan Santana made his debut with the Twins in 2000, getting five starts and twenty-five appearances out of the bullpen. He became a starter for good in 2004 and has been the best pitcher in baseball since. Johan turned 28 in March.

Scott Boras has promised that Alex Rodriguez will become the fist $30 million a year player. This means that should Johan reach the free agent market in the winter of 2008, he could be baseball's first $35 million a year player. Baseball's best pitcher over the last five years could be going to the highest bidder, and $250 million for seven years isn't an exaggeration.

If the Twins decide to hammer out an extension this offseason, let's do what I just did with Torii Hunter and attempt a realistic scenario. Considering recent contracts for Barry Zito, Roger Clemens and A.J. Burnett, if Minnesota is able to sign Johan to a 5-year, $115 million dollar deal, it would be more than fair to the Twins at an average of $23,000,000 per year.

Risk

Pitchers are a higher risk than hitters, especially when comparing large contracts. Signing a pitcher about to turn 29 to a lucrative, long-term contract contains more risk than signing a hitter about to turn 29 to a similar deal. In this situation, however, the hitter is 32. How much does the three-year age differential offset the hitter's risk advantage?

Minnesota will not only need to take into account their financial investment in these players, but how likely they are to be successful and finish the term of the contract. A 5-year deal for Hunter will mean he'll be 37 at the deal's end in 2012. Santana on a 5-year extension will be 34 coming out of 2013.

Team Payroll

Next year doesn't look to be causing many issues for team payroll, particularly if Pohlad raises the bar by another $10,000,000 to roughly $80 million. Hunter could easily fit into 2008's cap, considering the number of open positions to fill. But the answer can't be found in next year's figures.

Looking at 2009, the Twins have a lot of positions to fill. This is the year Santana and Nathan would become free agents, and there become more questions in regards to filling out the bullpen and the bench. Holes at third and left and center fields are also going to require answers. In 2010 there are even fewer concrete answers, with Michael Cuddyer's free agency looming large.

Raising team payroll by $10 million per year is erring on the optimistic side, but is far from unbelieveable. But even assuming a $100 million dollar cap in 2010, attempting to fit both Santana and Hunter's new contracts wouldn't be advisable. This would add $35 million (minimum) to the payroll, leaving less than $10 million to fill out twelve positions...one of which couldn't be Cuddyer.

Looking beyond 2010, Justin Morneau will be needing a contract. Joe Mauer will be needing another one. If the Twins want to keep Cuddyer, he'll be making eight digits in the first year of a contract. Liriano and Bartlett will be in their final year of arbitration and a number of the players who had been able to fill out the roster cheaply will be just beginning arbitration. Signing both Hunter and Santana would be suicide by self strangulation.

Cashing In On the Return

Losing either Hunter to free agency this year or Santana next year would result in draft pick compensation. Considering what each player could bring in a trade, this should be the last resort.

No matter which player is chosen to stay, there is always the option that he could be traded at some point into his new contract. Torii is more likely to bring a fair return than Johan, even though it would still be relative. But it doesn't matter how you look at it, it's all but impossible to get a fair return when trading one of baseball's best pitchers. Even if that's three or four years down the road.

Conclusions

One thing I took for granted in this analysis was that the Twins didn't re-sign Joe Nathan or Luis Castillo. I could see the Twins trying to sign Luis to a 1-year deal for 2008, but if so that would be his last year with Minnesota. Nathan on the other hand, while one of baseball's best closers, already has his replacement in his bullpen.

So, who to choose? It's not an easy answer, and it may come down to not just who the Twins can afford or who they or the fans "like" the most, it could come down to how the money will effect the financial contraints of the club over the next half decade.

I've hit a number of points and most of them briefly, because I want to start a discussion and not just give you a monologue. It will be impossible for the Twins to keep both Hunter and Santana, unless Pohlad gets an itch to pull a Steinbrenner. Which signing would be better for the Twins now, and five years from now? Or is there another possibility: Will neither player be on the roster in 2009?

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Comments

Interesting question

But not all that hard to answer if you're honest with yourself. If it's one or the other, it has to be Johan. In my opinion this wouldn't even be debatable if we were talking about it prior to Hunter's current 2007 campaign, which is shaping up to be the best year of his career. Lots of fans might be blinded by his current performance and forget that he's a career .270, 20-25 HR, 90 RBI guy, rather than his current .300/35/120 pace self.

Conversely, Santana's numbers are consistently amazing year after year. Also, if they lost Santana they would be losing the only member of their rotation with significant MLB experience. As they say, it all starts with good starting pitching, and it doesn't get any better than Johan.

As for your final question asking if there's the possibility of keeping neither player, my answer would be a resounding no. After all the work and persuasion they went through to get a new stadium, there is no way they can afford to just let both of these guys go before the place even opens its doors. It would be a P.R. nightmare, and fans would be pissed that they would essentially be "rebuilding" the team right as they move into their new home.

I've said it many times in various places, but if the Twins only manage to sign Santana and Morneau and have to let go of Hunter, Cuddyer, and Nathan, I would consider it a win. It's an ease of replacement issue, and Santana/Morneau are virtually irreplaceable for the Twins. Outfielders with Cuddyer and Hunter numbers are much more commonplace than MVP and CyTana.

Replace Nick Punto.

by rayken on Jul 17, 2007 5:01 AM EDT reply actions

What if it's purely financial?

Is it possible the Twins could choose Hunter simply because his average yearly salary could be $5-$10 million less per year? That's a lot of money that could be spent elsewhere.

by Jesse on Jul 17, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Uncle Carl's Deep Pockets

made Kirby one of the highest paid professional baseball players, albeit only for a short while (and yes I realize that 5 year 30mil is a drop in the bucket compared to 5 years 120mil). It was a long time ago, in a galaxy far far away, but Carl proved that he will spend money to make money - and TR has reiterated this sentiment. While this doesn't guarantee that he will indeed pony up the cash for one or the other, I think that TR will go to great lengths to sign Santana. Hunter will be too expensive, on the verge of decline and ultimately the Twins can replace him (with whom I have no idea, but there are always cheaper trade targets and prospects not named Span in other organizations). Santana is one of a kind and irreplaceable, and for that reason I believe Carl will once again make a Twin one of the highest paid players in pro-ball.

I realize that I'm prone to exaggerated statements, and irrational fears, but I really believe the weight of J.Santana pitching for the Yankees could crush me, for my sake I hope that Carl reads this and realizes that at least one fan will be devastated and decides to shell out the dough.

by JS22 on Jul 17, 2007 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Hunter's numbers

Several analysts (Rich Lederer, e.g.) have compared the different free agent center fielders in terms of market value. They conclude that Hunter is well below Ichiro. He might still get Ichiro money on the open market, but that doesn't mean he's worth more than, say, $15 million a year. That's still only $3 million a year savings, which doesn't help all that much.

Considering that Santana must be a higher priority than Hunter, is now the time to trade Hunter?

Well, if a team offered a serviceable center fielder and a couple of prospects for Hunter, Ryan should seriously consider it. It has to be a team that can afford to sign Hunter long term in order to get the value they need. Three teams have what it takes: The Yankees (Cabrera, Duncan &?), the Red Sox (Crisp, Moss, and ?), and the Dodgers (Kemp, LaRoche, and ?).

But if the Twins don't get that kind of deal, we can only hope he's a Type A free agent after the year.

I found it interesting that Hunter jerseys are not available: They stopped making them. Is this a management directive?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 17, 2007 8:41 AM EDT reply actions

Hunter Jerseys

Really? I have not heard that. Where did you see that?

by Diggity Dino on Jul 17, 2007 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

All Twins Pro shops and stadium vendors....

...are all out of Hunter jerseys. I heard there were only two red jerseys left as of last weekend. When a source asked a vendor, he said, "They stopped making them".

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 17, 2007 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Again, dollars and sense.......

Is it plausible to have 2-3 players taking up half your payroll, or 4 playrs 60%. That determines who you put on the field. Unless your funds are absolutely limitless, you have to make ahrd choices.

That's aprt of the joy (pain) of being a General Manager. Who do you pay more, who less, or who goes.

Can you pay Santana $20+ million. Sure, if you have four other starters all making less than a million for the next 2-5 years. Go ahead. Maybe it will work. Or you can play the aging pitcher role and grab some fluff off the free agent pile for a few million.

The bullpen looks set for another season, but then you have to hope that someone ahs been groomed for the closer role, someone who won't be anotehr Keith Atherton, for example, or Dave Stevens, or even Pat Mahomes. There's enough young arms coming up thru the system that should stock the bullpen for the next 5-6 years (hopefully).

Catching is set, baring injury, for 3 years with an expensive 4-8 on the horizon, and even after that, Joe Mauer could still sign one more BIG contract.

None of us want to think Justin is replaceable, but if the $$$ come too high, he would be happy somewhere else. He has at least two HUGE contracts to negotiate in the coming future.

Sadly, Cuddyer is not an expensive given. If he costs too much, he'll be gone. The question with Cuddyer is the same facing the Twins right now with Hunter...who are the repalcement parts. Yes, the Twins have a second baseman, shortstop and third baseman in the pipelines, amongst the many VERY young hopefuls. The outfield situation for the Twins doesn't look too good, especially if you get a bunch of Kubels (of this year) or Fords or Dustin Mohrs. No one stands out truly...yet...although the fingers are crossed for Parmelee, Benson and the ilk.

Can the Twins sign Hunter? Yes, this year and the next...but then his age and contract will probably start to hurt the Twins. This is Hunter's big opportunity to clean up 5-6 years, with maybe one or two more seasons trolling the DH spot somewhere.

Whatever you pay Santana the next 4-5 years, he should be able to replicate until he decides to retire, if he has a quest for Hall of Fame status (give him a third Cy Young, and he needs to be on track).

The Twins have two big salary necessities: Mauer and Santana, and only because Joe is the hometown kid. Hunter, Morneau, Nathan you want to get for as long as you can without breaking the bank past 2010. Same with Cuddyer.

But it doesn't seem right that the other 19 on the field should be making per season as a whole what any one of the above might get in a single year, but that is baseball economics.

Buhrle was a steal with the White Sox, no escalating contract...no $20-25 million surprise in 2010 or 2011.

The Twins hae to at least do that...overpay maybe in the year's that they have the money and average pay down the line, if it can be done.

Of they just have to sell more tickets, more TV/radio ads, more concessions, more everything to spend more.

And, remember, the promise made about a new stadium will make the Twins more competitive and allow them to keep their free agents. We'll see!!!!!

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Jul 17, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Why not both?

Jerry Bell has stated that a minimum of 20 million will be added to payroll as a result of the 40 million in additional revenue in the new ballpark. Considering that, the Twins payroll would near $100M. If the Twins make an offer to Santana of $23M and Hunter of $16-$18M, they will be able to lock up both for the first two seasons of the new ballpark in addition to Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer. Those five guys are the core to the team, and if they allow any of those five to go before the new park opens, the public backlash will be great.

This would rule out Castillo and Nathan, in addition to Rincon. Considering the youth at the other positions, including the rotation, Those five guys being over $70M isn't out of the realm of possibility with a $100M payroll.

There is no reason not to sign both.

If they let Santana go, they have proven that their philosophy of mentoring and building pitchers only goes so far. It would be a complete joke to not sign both, and to extend them before the season is over.

by nathaneide on Jul 17, 2007 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

Do the math

In 2010, even if you were able to get those 5 players for $70 million, don't forget that the payroll form 2010 is already $57 million right now. That's well over $100 million and even if it weren't, using 70% of your payroll on 5 players is going to leave you with a pretty bad team.

by Jesse on Jul 17, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

So?

Who is on that 2010 payroll at $57M? Mauer is part of the $70M, so he's not included in the overage.

The point is, if they are willing to spend $100M, and dump Nathan, Rincon and Castillo, they can keep both and not have problems.

by nathaneide on Jul 17, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Here is my best guestimate

Mauer: $12 million
Morneau: $15 million
Cuddyer: $12 million
Santana: $20 million
Hunter: $15 million
Neshek: $6 million (if closer)
Crain: $3 million
Guerrier: $3 million
Bonser: $5 million
Liriano: $5 million
Baker: $4 million
Garza: $3 million
Bartlett: $4 million
Kubel: $3 million
10 Serfs: $4 million

Total: $115 million
Overage: $15 million, or Hunter's projected salary with a home-town discount.

If you get serfs to pitch instead of Baker and Bonser (Perkins, Duensing, Mullins, Swarzak, Slowey, etc.) play short stop (Plouffe) and left field (Guzman or Portes?), you can cover that. But then you're an awfully young team.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 17, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: So?

Who is on that 2010 payroll at $57M?

Read the post again. If you want approximate figures and status for each player, read the link to John's post. It's all pretty accurate.

The point is, if they are willing to spend $100M, and dump Nathan, Rincon and Castillo, they can keep both and not have problems.

No, they can't, unless they're willing to have less than $10 million dollars to spend on more than half of the 25-man roster. This is impossible when in 2010 A: Your bench is all but empty, B: Your bullpen is all but empty, C: You would still need to fill holes at 3B, LF and DH, D: Liriano and Bartlett will be in their final years of arbitration (aka they won't come cheap) and E: Casilla would be in his last year of serfdom.

If the Twins want to compete, it's mathematically impossible to sign both Hunter and Santana without drastic changes like releasing Mauer or Morneau. You're going to have to come up with a better argument.

by Jesse on Jul 17, 2007 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Cuddyer

I really don't think it would be a huge deal to most fans if they lost Cuddyer. I mean, they obviously wouldn't like it, but he's on the very bottom of the list popularity-wise.

Replace Nick Punto.

by rayken on Jul 17, 2007 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

A little off topic...

...but how come whenever I see a list of the Twins roster projecting into the future Perkins is never on it. A couple of weeks ago SBG had discussion of next years rotation and nobody even mentioned Perkins as the sixth or seventh starter, and here he's not on the team even out of the pen. Out of sight out of mind I guess.

by JP @ Twinkie Town on Jul 17, 2007 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

It's more

or less a Baker=Garza=Slowey=Perkins situation. They'll all be making roughly the same amount of money and more than likely not all of them will still be with the Twins. The projection is just an estimate. Perkins could be on this list instead of Slowey.

by Jesse on Jul 17, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Is it possible

to structure their contracts so that they get the biggest money in the first years of the new contract and pay less as you get to the end of the contract?

Same money paid out but just in reverse of the standard contracts being issued. Wouldn't this help the Twins?

by caluofmn on Jul 17, 2007 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

If it was football.....

This would be wodnerful, give the player a signing bonus or mroe upfront money so you have more to spend as the years roll by.

But baseball ahs this thing about cutting a player's contract more than 20%. Like the Twins would have galdly signed Ortiz back in the good old days for a half-million, but they couldn't cut him that far and had to waive him or face arbitration, which would have given him a bigger contract than they wanted to pay.

Usually the best you can hope for is an even keel like the $15 mill or so that Buerhle got.

But, yes, I would rather see a player like, say Mauer, get a rising contract, then give someone like Santana an same-per-year contract, and someone ehading towards the last years of their career a diminished contract to average out the rising star.

But it won't happen.

The best you can hope for is finding some otehr team to take the contract off your hand in a future season, but then the "selling" team might have to eat part of the contract, too.

Plus the factor of what some otehr team will pay.

Yes, $80 million is still $80 million.

Does anyone do these 20-year contracts anymore that were popular in the beginning days of free-agency?

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Jul 17, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Morneau

I dont understand contracts very well and I don't know where to go to find out so...

Can someone explain to me the details of Morneau's contract? Is he guarenteed here for awhile or does another contract have to be pounded out in the offseason?

Liriano's too, if possible. Thanks!

by eric twins fan on Jul 17, 2007 3:22 PM EDT reply actions

Serfdom, arbitration, etc.

Neither Morneau or Liriano are signed with the Twins past this season. However, the Twins still control their rights for at least three more years.

Basically, a player has to accumulate six years of major league service time to be a free agent, unless his team declines to offer him a contract at some point during that time. The first three years (often referred to as "serfdom"), the team can pay him as little as they want, down to the league minimum. The next three years, the player has a right to salary arbitration - if the player and team aren't able to agree on a contract for the next season, they are each allowed to submit a number for the following season, and a neutral arbitrator decides which figure the player will receive (most players ultimately sign for roughly the midpoint of the two proposals before the arbitrator makes a ruling).

There are other confounding factors involved (for example, the concept of a "Super 2", a player who's eligible for arbitration a year early - Morneau was one of these), but that's pretty much the basics, as far as I know.

Currently, Morneau is in the first of four years of arbitration, and Liriano is in the second year of serfdom.

A great resource for contract information is Cot's Baseball Contracts, which has information on the contract of every player in the majors.

by BeefMaster on Jul 17, 2007 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins have...

...the exclusive rights to Morneau for another 3 years. Now if they don't sign him to a long term contract they would need to go to arbitration each year and another MVP type season following last year's MVP will mean he will get expensive.

I believe that now that the stadium deal is set, Mr. Ryan will be more aggressive in signing three or four this winter (Santana, Morneau, Cuddyer and maybe Nathan). With Casilla not setting the world on fire in Rochester and Tolbert coming back to earth...wouldn't be totally surprised if he tried signing Castillo to a 2 year contract as well.

by roger @ Twinkie Town on Jul 17, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Castillo

That would be really disappointing to me if we sign him after this year is over. Casilla is a much better fielder, can steal many more bases, and hopefully will be an adequate lead-off hitter by next year. Spending money on Castillo and Nathan, whom we already have replacements for, really shouldn't happen if we're serious about keeping the big dogs.

Replace Nick Punto.

by rayken on Jul 17, 2007 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I also...

think we can sign BOTH Hunter and Santana.

In my mind, you don't extend Hunter longer than a max of 2011, where you have Benson or Revere replace him hopefully. You don't extend Cuddyer past a max of 2010, where you have hopefully Parmalee replace him. And you don't extend Nathan past a max of 2010 where you hopefully have Morlan or Neshek replace him.

We have a pretty cheap guy at almost every spot on the roster for the next few years after the big guys, contract-wise, so I think it's feasible.

And I think your numbers are off a bit Jesse. I don't see Hunter getting Vernon Wells-money. He's not close to the player Wells is and he's older. I think Hunter would still do roughly 4 years/$60 M with us, and I think Santana would do 6 years/$120 M. That is a big difference in our payroll.

Guess we'll see. Fun to speculate though.

by djskilbr on Jul 17, 2007 8:24 PM EDT reply actions

Extend Nathan?

I can see the Twins affording both Santana and Hunter, if they're willing to lose some money in 2009 and live with a lot of cheap rookies on the bench and pitching staff, but I can't fathom how they'd extend Nathan, too - closers are horrifically overpriced in this market. There's no way he'll get less than $8 million a year, and it wouldn't shock me if someone gave him $10 million. Beyond that, I also doubt he'll sign a 2-year contract like in your scenario.