Pointing Out the Obvious

by Jesse on Jul 24, 2007 1:29 AM EDT in News Comment 7 comments

One year and three days ago, I did a piece on The Amazing Nick Punto. Unfortunately, his 2007 campaign hasn't been as productive.

It's hard to get down on a guy who tries as hard as Nick Punto. Really, the offensive deficiencies at the hot corner aren't even his fault; Punto is a player with the offensive upside of a backup middle infielder, not a starting third baseman. When Michael Cuddyer was given the right fielder's job going into 2006 and the Tony Batista experiment failed, Punto was one of a number of non-ideal third base choices to take over. He had a hot bat and found a way to excel to an extent he never had. This made it his job to lose coming into 2007, and there was nobody in the organization good enough to take it away from him. Now he's bearing the brunt of offensive criticism he shouldn't be responsible for bearing, but is.

Nick Punto is quick. He always hustles and gives leaves no doubt that every effort he exerts is the most effort he has to offer. His arm is accurate with enough strength to fire a ball across the diamond with some zip, and he certainly isn't afraid to get his jersey dirty. He's a leader vocally on the field and from the dugout, and he's a leader by example, giving everything he has every game. Inch-for-inch, he has the largest forearms after Popeye.

None of this excuses the fact that it's his performance that's helping cripple the Minnesota offense. Ninety-nine games into the season his OPS is .587, and he's collected sixteen extra-base hits in 313 at-bats. Gardenhire has made the best choice he can by moving Punto to the bottom of the order and thereby minimizing the damage, even if it is just by one plate appearance per game.

Let's compare Punto's performance to other primary third basemen in the American League, by both offensive and defensive metrics. Since Punto's strength is supposed to be his defense, I've ordered by Zone Rating.
Name Team AB EQA OPS+ VORP RF ZR Rodriguez NYY 361 .340 186 60.8 2.63 .821 Metcalf TEX 76 .189 40 -6.1 2.22 .820 Inge DET 303 .254 95 5.1 2.83 .804 Beltre SEA 321 .275 116 17.0 3.02 .793 Chavez OAK 337 .256 101 6.4 2.75 .780 Mora BAL 298 .270 107 12.8 2.83 .774 Gordon KC 323 .235 74 -2.7 2.91 .765 Lowell BOS 343 .284 127 25.9 2.56 .761 Iwamura TB 239 .273 101 8.9 2.52 .756 Punto MIN 313 .216 59 -12.0 2.70 .747 Figgins LAA 274 .278 111 17.8 2.32 .747 Wigginton TB 368 .267 104 11.7 2.65 .743 Glaus TOR 250 .301 135 22.4 2.42 .736 Blake CLE 372 .275 119 18.8 2.66 .712 Fields CWS 147 .241 83 0.0 2.71 .706
With the Devil Rays' Ty Wigginton thrown into the mix for kicks and giggles, this should give you a pretty fair encompassing picture for each player. The first thing I want you to notice is that of the fifteen third basemen listed, Punto is arguably only better than one offensively. Arguably. And that one is only 24 and filling in for the injured Hank Blalock.

Defensively, Stats, Inc. insists that Punto will field balls in his range about as well as the bottom six third basemen in our league. His range factor places him very near the top third for American League third basemen. Unless I'm completely misinterpreting these statistics, which happened once or twenty times in the past, it seems that Punto is very much like Luis Rivas in results although not effort: LNP is very good at turning the balls he fields into outs...he just needs to get to the ball. But again, that's just my interpretation, I could be wrong. (Oh, Dennis Miller...)

None of these findings should be much of a revelation for anyone, and I realize that. What I intended to do what give us an exact view of where we sit in regards to our third base situation throughout the American League. It wouldn't be such a big deal if we were getting more production from our left fielder (most days of the week), designated hitter (Rondell was 0-for-4 in his return) and bench (it's true we have one), but we aren't and it's magnifying everything.

The 'little' guys who had career years last year: Redmond, Tyner, Bartlett and Punto. Redmond is doing what he can and Bartlett has had a good start to the second half, but Tyner has been getting starts as the designated hitter, and he's not even doing as well as he did last summer, and we had no reason to believe he would. We just discussed Punto. There aren't any supplemental players to pick up the slack this year, and as we've seen day-in and day-out, the bottom third of the lineup isn't offering much help for the cause.

This summer, there aren't any easy solutions. In 2006 most of us cheered when Batista and Castro were lifted in favor of Punto and Bartlett. There is no cavalry this time around, neither inside the organization nor, seemingly, outside of it. More than likely the Twins, and Nick Punto, will be left to look after their own mess.

Minnesota is stuck with one of, if not the worst performing third baseman at the plate in the American League, and it's hurting our chances. I like Punto, I want him to succeed because if one extra hit per week fell in he'd have much better numbers with all the walks he takes...and like I said, it's hard to not like a guy who gives it so much. But the reality is that the bat just isn't there. Nick Punto belongs on the bench.

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Punto's follies

From a career perspective, Punto is like Rob Wilfong. He had one great year when he hit in front of Rod Carew when Carew was pushing .400 on a day-to-day basis. When Carew was traded, Wilfong went back to the slightly-above-replacement-level player he was before he got an everyday role.

Most of us fans were expecting this. We knew that nothing from Wilfong's history suggested that he would sustain his one great year for a whole career. And his average was somewhat bloated by a high number of bunt base hits.

But one thing that Wilfong always had under Gene Mauch: He always did everything fundamentally right. He was the second best bunter on the team (Carew was the best there ever was at bunting). He was a good base runner. He had good hands and he always knew where he should be on the field when balls went to the outfield. He wouldn't help you win that many games. But he wouldn't help you lose them either.

For those of us who remember how Punto played before his one and only career year, he was reckless. He dove for everything. He played out of control. He never let fundamentals get in the way of his "hustle". The organization repeatedly chided him publicly for this. But the emphasis was always on his injuries: His reckless play led to a lot of injuries. And the organization thought he would play much better if he just stayed healthy. They loved his hustle, and they seemed to excuse the fact that the hustle often caused him to be fundamentally unsound.

The best example of this is sliding head first into first base. I lost track of the number of close plays that went against Punto when he slid into first base. I don't know how many of them would have gone the other way. But I'm quite sure of a few. The last one was on a double play on a slow chopper to end an inning with a runner on third. From my perspective, it is the dumbest play in baseball. The fastest way to get from point A to point B is to use your legs. The reason we slide is to slow down, not to speed up. He should only slide into first when the pitcher has the ball and the angle on a tag play, which happens a few times a year, not every time you run to first on a grounder.

But his approach to first base is only one facet of a whole game that is not fundamentally sound. He is the worst bunter on the team. He is a below average base runner, often getting picked off and running into outs in scoring position. As good as they claim his glove is, he never gets in front of balls. At third, you don't have to backhand everything. You can get in front of balls and still get the runner. A lot of those attempted backhands go off his glove and trickle down the third base line as gift doubles. I have also noticed poor judgment on cut-off plays. He cuts close plays and lets others go through that should be cut. His approach at the plate is horseshit. He has a long looping swing with a big uppercut. I rarely see him cut down his swing in counts and situations that call for contact.

I can excuse him for reverting to his career numbers after his Rob Wilfong year. He's not that good of a player, so I never really expected him to play that way for his career. But I can't excuse him for resting on his laurels last year and reverting to the fundamentally unsound play that marks the rest of his career.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 24, 2007 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well done

You only used 3 numbers in your whole post, so this is clearly excellent analysis.

(It actually is [b]very[/b]good analysis, as always, cmath.)

by ravenfly on Jul 24, 2007 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

It's not just having a looping swing, he's pulling his head out and dipping his back elbow. He was much more compact and level last year. It's killing his approach. Actually reminds me or Morneau in 05 and May of 06, trying to pull everything, getting his hands in front and popping the ball up. He shortened his stance, and strides into the ball now instead of down the line.

by nathaneide on Jul 25, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perfect example

Was last night when Tyner got into that rundown between third and home. He kept it going as long as possible, and Punto still managed to get thrown out at third. Like Coomer said after the game, you either stay at second or MAKE SURE you can get to third. You can't make a second out on the basepaths in that situation. Due to that mistake the Twins had a guy on first with 2 outs, rather than 1st and 2nd, 1 out. He's now managing to kill rallies even when he's not holding a stick.

Replace Nick Punto.

by rayken on Jul 24, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Twins Losing

With all due respect guys, over the last seven days Punto has hit .318 with a .375 OBP and it doesn't seem to have helped the Twins win many games. Perhaps you need to look elsewhere for a scapegoat for a little while.

by TT on Jul 25, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And he's made five outs on the bases

That's the point.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 25, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scapegoats

I have two hands full of fingers for scapegoats, it isn't just about one guy. But the point is that Punto is one of the largest offenders. If Punto had hit .318/.375 the entire season he would still be hitting second, and there would be no complaints about him starting.

Punto is a scapegoat, but he's one of many.

by Jesse on Jul 25, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs