I view Hall of Fame pitchers as a continuum stretching from guys who are in primarily due to peak value, to guys who are in primarily because of career value.  Of course, the true inner circle guys are the guys with both the fantastic peaks and the longevity.

Sandy Koufax is the obvious exemplar of one extreme--he's in essentially because of 4 seasons, and we'll name Don Sutton, since he was a teammate of Koufax during his rookie year, as representative of the other extreme.  

Koufax is one of the few starting pitchers in with fewer than 200 wins; he was great for a few years, but even that greatness is somewhat overstated by the conditions under which he pitched.  I doubt a starting pitcher gets in again, at least not in the near future, with under 200 wins.

I say this because another guy on the Koufax end of the continnuum--Pedro Martinez, is just over 200 wins, and its possible he's about done, as he's trying to return from a shoulder surgery.  Let's say he never pitches again; I think it's unquestionable that he'll get into the Hall. But I think he's essentially the modern cutoff point for peak value HOFers--200 wins, and peak just about as great as there has ever been.  

Santana is currently in the midst of a tremendous peak himself--Cy Young awards, best pitcher in baseball, the strikeouts, etc.  But it isn't Pedro's peak.  Pedro had at least 3, and arguably 5 seasons better than anything Santana has done. (See especially 1997, 1999, and 2000).  I am going to take the position that this is what there is with Santana--that he isn't going to reel off any seasons significantly better than what he has already done.  In large part, that's a position that has solidified this season, as he is having another Santana season, essentially his 5th in a row of very similar seasons.  

What this means is that Santana will have to establish himself somewhat further toward the career end than Pedro.  He isn't going to be Don Sutton, obviously--his peak is already better and he has no chance for the innings--but he doesn't have to be. I envision Santana the Hall of Famer as still toward the peak end of the continuum, just not as far toward that end as Pedro.

I think, depending on how many more peak seasons he has, he probably needs to get to 3,000 innings and around 250 wins.  

What are the chances?  

Take a look at Curt Schilling's career, by the way.  There's a guy who I think probably won't get in, but if he does, it will be at least in part due to his post season heroics.  He's been all over the place--much injury time, some great seasons on the level of Santana.  He's right there with 3,200 innings, and 214 wins.  He's tough to judge, because he had a rather late peak and had some good mid career seasons look worse than they are because those were some bad Philly teams. He has that workhorse reputation, and has had some big inning seasons, but has also had quite a few injury years.  Missed out on large parts of his age 27-29 years, which should be peak years, due to injuries (and work stoppages).  

Santana has been remarkably healthy up to now--he'll need that to continue if he wants to make the Hall.  

Also, as of today (08-20-2007) Santana is second in the AL in pitching VORP, and only 0.4 points after Haren.