Labor Day News Update
by Jon Marthaler on Sep 3, 2007 11:22 PM EDT
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PrintThere is much to discuss in Twinkie Town this evening - only some of it related to on-field goings-on.
1) Joe Christensen at the Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting that Torii Hunter turned down a contract offer for three years and $45 million. As Christensen points out, Hunter was quoted as saying the Twins didn't offer him anything like the original report of four years and $56 million. Now it turns out he may have turned down more money per year.
My take: Let's assume for the moment that Christensen's report is correct, and also that Hunter has been correctly quoted over the last week or so. If this is true, then it seems clear that Hunter's angling to get to free agency, and has no special desire to re-sign with the Twins - unless they offer him more money than any other team, of course. So much for a "hometown discount."
2) Johan Santana lost again today, bringing his record this year to 1-4 (Update: 0-5, sorry) against the Indians. He also gave up two home runs, the 20th time in 28 games he's allowed a gopher ball, and the sixth time he's allowed two or more. Santana has allowed 30 dingers, the most of any pitcher in the league.
My take: Santana is also third in the league in WHIP among starters with a sparkling 1.06. For some reason, 98% of the time, Johan is the best pitcher in the game. The other 2%, he's a batting-practice pitcher. Your theories in the comments are appreciated.
3) Back at the Star Tribune, Jim Souhan thinks Joe Mauer is the answer at third base. Ron Gardenhire and Mauer, on the other hand, disagree - and not respectfully, either.
My take: True, Mauer would be an upgrade at third. But a re-animated Jimmy Carter zombie would be an upgrade from Nick Punto - and what's the alternative at catcher? Mike Redmond is good for, at most, 80 games a year, and then you're stuck with a half-season of Chris Heintz. Is this really what we want out of this "trade"?
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Although, I wouldn't have accepted that offer if I was Hunter either. I'm sure he wants much more than 3 years, quite possibly twice that many. I'm sure he's looking at having near 75 million guaranteed to him, not getting the most per year but then maybe not getting much 4 years from now.
- Santana has always had the homers the only chink in his armor. Whatever, I'll take it. So he may not be the undisputed best pitcher in baseball this year, he's still in the top 5 easily and is the sure bet to be #1 again next year. A 3.10 ERA and only 202 K's on September 3rd? What a crime.
- Souhan (the latest guy to write an article on Mauer, and a repeat offender on this front) is a moron anyway. This angry response makes me very happy. While I usually get very angry at Gardenhire for the way he thinks, he's dead right with this one.
"If it's deemed that he can't play catcher, then obviously we'll find another position for him," Gardenhire said. "But you're talking about an All-Star catcher. This guy's pretty good. He can stop a running game. He can do things that you're not going to find anywhere else."
and
"Was Sweeney a good catcher, an All-Star catcher? No," Gardenhire said. "Were any of those guys All-Star catchers who controlled the running game and stopped the running game?
"None of them were Joe Mauer. This guy's a stud catcher."
That's dead right. Mauer isn't just a great hitter, more superior to his catching counterparts than he is to his potential third base counterparts, but he is also probably the FINEST defensive catcher in the game, or at least among the most elite. You don't move him. Like the article says, he gets hurt running anyway. The original injury concerns were about his knees, the part of your body that gets hurt from catching. Well, since his freak accident in 2004, he's had no knee problems.
And once more from Gardy:
"He needs to move to fill one gaping hole at third base, and let's just make another gaping hole behind the plate."
I only read the star trib's website for LEN III, Joe C, and howard Sinker's blog these days. LEN III and Joe C are great reporters with top level knowledge of the game of baseball. The rest of the baseball writers on that staff make me want to not visit the site because I don't want to seem like I'm supporting it. They can just go and retire and finish going senile for all I care.
Souhan
For once I agree with Gardy here. All those people who want to move Joe to third so that he'd improve his offense don't have a clue about the value of his defense. Right now, I'd say he's the best catcher in the majors. And that's saying a lot because the best catcher ever is still in the majors, though his defense has slipped some from his peak years.
If Joe were a mediocre catcher like Biggio was, and the Twins had a good catcher waiting in the wings, like they almost do with Morales, the move would make some sense. But Joe's the best catcher I've ever seen play. I love watching him catch almost as much as I love watching him hit.
My, Joey, you've grown so
He's 0-3 vs. the Indians in the last 31 days.
2) Let's not forget that Mauer has been unable to stop growing. I'm not a doctor, but those folks don't know so much anyway, so I'll make an assumption that Mauer will eventually stop growing. If that's the case, it could coincide with a more durable ball player.
Even older teen athletes have injuries related to the growth of long bones, such as the femur. Why would an adult be an exception to this if he were still growing?
If you think that it's remotely possible for something similar to "growth-plate injuries" to apply to a supposedly grown man, you can further argue that catching at the big-league level probably exacerbates everything, and possibly this.
I'm willing to wait for the kid to calcify before making Mauer into Joe Torre. Franchises wait forever for a great catcher, and then they get one and people want to make him into something else. Seems kind of stupid.
vs. Cleveland
by Jon Marthaler on Sep 4, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
But does ESPN's log include Monday's game?
by Firpo Marberry on Sep 4, 2007 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Jon = idiot
Of course you're right.
by Jon Marthaler on Sep 4, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Good Point
I think that offseason running program that was supposedly the cause of his spring injury is a big culprit in all of this. All his injuries this year were heavily running related> he said he ran very heavily this offseason, and I think he overdid it.
He should try swimming instead. I trains more muscles and isn't nearly so hard on all those bones (especially the knees) that he needs so much...
Doubletalk
LEN III and Joe C are great reporters with top level knowledge of the game of baseball.
You could have fooled me. LEN III recent ode to Jason Bartlett was embarrassing. Christenson is better. The most knowledgeable guy on that staff is Reusse.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 8:43 AM EDT reply actions
knowledge
Baseball, Anyone?
Reusse=old school
Fortunately, Bill James has a lot of really good statistical analyses the help people compare the old players with the new players. Unfortunately, Reusse can't be bothered with such analyses.
Reusse
Mauer has already said that his hands were shot by the end of last year, his injuries are hampering his power numbers, and he is seriously hurt due to catching-related dings. Good defensive catchers can be found for cheap. Mauer's potential at the plate cannot.
Idiots
Remember Reusse's point about durability and Mauer? Since he was traded, AJ has 505 hits, Joe Mauer has 464. AJ has hit 58 home runs, Mauer has hit 33. Is AJ a better player than Mauer? No. But you have to be in the lineup to contribute anything and Mauer is having trouble staying in the lineup. Whether that makes AJ more valuable is doubtful, but it makes it a lot closer than you would imagine looking at their OPS.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
You've come a long way, TT
I'm ready
Mauer
He doesn't do the team much good at third base from the bench either. Its not clear to me that his injuries are a result of his catching or that he would be better able to play through injuries at third.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
the chance
Running the bases
He does get sore hands catching. And the mental side of catching can be a strain. But at his age, injuries to his core (legs, abs, etc.) would happen at third just as easily as at catcher.
His value at the catching position far eclipses any additional value he might gain by switching positions. And filling a hole at catcher is far more difficult than filling a hole at third.
Running the bases
Not a fair comparison
But it is a big deal
Mauer's been in the majors for four seasons. He's missed serious time in three (I think), and had disappointing seasons. How far would you be willing to go with this if you were in the Twins front office? Should they roll the dice next year? What if he misses time again?
Knees are not muscles
It has been well documented that his injuries this year are most likely due to his extra offseason running program. If he takes it easy next offseason, I expect him to be about as healthy as last year.
As for his "disappointing" seasons, how many catchers in history are perennial .300 hitters?
Okay
And are you happy with your #3 hitter having five hr and 55 rbi? Ask Joe Mauer if he is satisfied with his career so far.
Number 3
Exactly
For him to match his current production at third base, we can compare him to the identically VORP'ed Adrian Beltre. Beltre has been healthy the entire season and has put up a .280/.327/.486 line. So Mauer would have to play the whole year and match that line to match this year's (relatively disappointing) result. To match last year's 68.9 VORP (removing about 1/6th of the season for September, that means a current player on pace for that has about a 57 VORP right now) he would have to hit like Chipper Jones, who has a .326/.414/.579 line this year.
And that is only offensively. Mauer would NEVER duplicate the value of his defensive abilities behind the plate at third base.
Beyond all the statistical evidence, I don't see how you can take a player as unique and coveted as Mauer, the first hitter ever, in over a hundred years of the game, to lead both leagues in BA as a catcher WHILE playing excellent defense behind the plate, and say you want to make him just like everybody else.
I can
What pushed me over the edge was when Mauer said his power was hurt by his injuries. If that's the case, it's time to try something different.
Wait a minute
It's not at all surprising that Mauer says the injuries hurt his power - that's what injuries do. The fact remains that his injuries aren't obviously a direct result of his catching, so there's no guarantee that moving him to third base will improve his power... they may very well just end up with a doubles-hitting #3 hitter who plays third base instead of catcher, making him less valuable both offensively and defensively (unless he's a near-Gold-Glove-quality third baseman, and even then, I'm not entirely sure that those aren't easier to find than excellent defensive catchers).
+1
The bottom line is, Mauer is a lot more valuable to this team as a catcher than a third baseman. Why voluntarily reduce his value to the team?
+ 2
by MauerPower @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
What was Mauer's value
Y'all say that his injuries have nothing, or little, to do with catching. I say they do. We are not medical experts, so it is a matter of opinion.
And who would you put in the #3 spot if not Mauer next year. I agree, on the Yankees he is a #2 hitter, but on our Twins he has to be the #3 hitter and hit home runs and drive in runners.
I think the Twins have a better chance of winning with Mauer's bat in the line-up everyday. That means they have to move him.
Mauer's Bat
- He will hit better than he has
- He will not get injured as often
- He can play third base at least adequately
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Four seasons
But this is probably all moot judging from the vehement reaction of Gardy and Mauer to the proposed move.
Cart before the horse
You don't put together a lineup by saying, "Okay, this guy is a leadoff man, this guy is a cleanup hitter, this guy should bat ninth, etc." - you put together the best player you have at each position, and then you put them in a good order. Saying that Mauer has to provide production matching his position in the batting order ignores the real question (which you kind of posed in a later post), of whether he's more valuable as a catcher with (possibly) slightly lower production than as a third baseman. Of course, that also goes to the "Is catching the problem?" question, which no one knows the answer to.
As you said, we are not medical experts, but I would guess the Mauer and the Twins, who are adamantly denying any contemplation of a move, have access to medical experts, and if catching were the problem, you'd think they'd be a bit more open to the idea of moving.
Within your arguement
In reference to his injuries sapping his power late last season wouldn't it be prudent to consider a position where he can be exposed to less risk giving him greater opportunity to develop power?
I can imagine 2 catchers splitting time with average to + defense combining for .250 5hr and 60 rbi.
Good Point
They may be. Then again, they may not. We will never really know. But his bat is not worth as much as his catching right now. That might change in a couple years.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Plouffe vs. Bartlett
Exhibit A: Your claim that Luis Rivas was a great second baseman based on one hot month in 2001.
Exhibit B: Your claim that Trevor Plouffe is better than Jason Bartlett.
Exhibit C: Your claim that Al Newman was the best defensive shortstop in Twins history.
BTW: Greg Gagne had 26 errors in 1986. Did that make him a bad shortstop? Perhaps in your world.
Your Reading Comprehension Problems Aside
Greg Gagne was 24 years old in 1986 and he still had a better fielding percentage than Bartlett despite those errors:
GGagne 155 228 377 26 96 .959
Bartlet 120 175 358 24 81 .957
Moreover, that was the worst year of Gagne's career.
Exhibit A: Your claim that Luis Rivas was a great second baseman based on one hot month in 2001.
Exhibit B: Your claim that Trevor Plouffe is better than Jason Bartlett.
Exhibit C: Your claim that Al Newman was the best defensive shortstop in Twins history.
We don't really need any more exhibits of your problems with reading comprehension.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha ha
Potato potata, tomato, tomata, let's call the whole thing off.
Reading Comprehension
You have shown the ability to invent your own conclusions and attribute them to others even when the original statements are in front of you.
Lets see.
Luis Rivas is a good young player = "Luis Rivas was a great second baseman". Al Newman was a better defensive player than Gagne = "Al Newman was the best defensive shortstop in Twins history". Plouffe may not turn out, but if he does Bartlett sure isn't going to keep him in the minor leagues= "Trevor Plouffe is better than Jason Bartlett".
Is the problem memory or reading comprehension or pathological misrepresentation of what other people say. You decide.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
pathological misrepresentation
Facts
"Trevor Plouffe is better than Jason Bartlett".
What I actually said:
"Plouffe may not turn out, but if he does Bartlett sure isn't going to keep him in the minor leagues"
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You've got to be kidding
And where the U is concerned, he considers it an insufferable indignity that he has to consider the U part of the Twins Cities sports scene.
Brewster's "sin" (according to Reusse) is to kindle some enthusiasm for the Gopher football program.
Brewster has some nerve.
Embarrassing?
To whom?
And suggesting moving Plouffe to third because he is blocked by Bartlett is just plain silly. Plouffe may not turn out, but if he does Bartlett sure isn't going to keep him in the minor leagues.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 10:22 AM EDT reply actions
3b
Plouffe
Stupid regardless
No doubt. But, it was pretty witless in my estimation. A pointless pot-shot that missed.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
No, funny.
Seriously?
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
You two
Third Base
Better than Joe Mauer or Johan Santana?
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions
New Question
or do you say,
"Let's see if he can be that 20hr, 95 rbi #3 hitter that the Twins need him to be by moving him to a new position and getting him into the lineup more"?
We'll cross that bridge...
No way
Is Mauer's defense that better than Mike Redmond?
Redmond is a great back-up. But he's not a starting catcher. If you moved Mauer, you would need someone to at least split time with Redmond who's as good at handling pitchers as Mauer is. That's a tall order.
You are
No you are "dead wrong"
Other side of the coin
He isn't
If he misses a MONTH every year, one sixth of the season, but is twice as valuable when he's playing catcher as opposed to when he's playing third, that's STILL better than playing third all year. offensively, he's about 1.5 times mroe valuable as a catcher (rough estimates based on VORPS of hitters at the other position with similar numbers) and probably twice as valuable defensively. Either way, even 1/6th of the season isn't enough, and this was a rough year,.
Explain to me
I'm being sincere. Explain how your use of VORP is relevant here?
The proposal
move Mauer to third and hope that his production and playing time increase.
The key word in there is hope. If Mauer puts up these numbers as a third baseman, he's just average. So it's a pretty risky move to turn an all-star into an average player. Not many GMs would take that risk based on the hope that his production would go up or his health would improve. You have to be pretty sure.
VORp
However, there are significantly more teams with thrid basemen out there who are able to hit as well as Joe mauer. suddenly, the Twins aren't getting so much more production out of the position Mauer plays than eeryone else is.
Lot's of teams have third basemen that are able to produce as many runs as Joe Mauer, but very very few teams have a catcher that can.
Carlos Guillen is a big hitter who really helps his and plays SS. But if you moved him to 1st base, suddenly his contributions are more run of the mill. Many teams have first basemen who walk a lot and slug .500, but not many teams have a SS that does so. And while Carlos Guillen plays shortstop and puts up those numbers, the other team has to field some normal hitting shortstop (which is a guy who hits slightly worse than Jason Bartlett has this year, for reference).
Or let's take Derek Jeter. For a shortstop, he's a great hitter. Move him to right field, he still hits the same, but he isn't such an advantage for the Yankees anymore because most teams have a right fielder that hits that well.
The best kind of player is one who can field a defensive position (generally the up the middle positions) and still hit like a corner player. Why do we want to take that value from mauer?
Let's Also
More runs = more wins.
Hey uh guys, I hate to burst your dumbass bubble
offensively that is
But my main beef is you talk about league average Cs and 3Bs like they grow on trees. They clearly don't for this organization. If we had a league average 3B we would probably be in the playoffs this year.
No need to point fingers
The entire point of VORP, the point you have been failing spectacularly to grasp, is that it is far easier to get an adequete replacement at third than at catcher. Comprende?
If it is so easy...
VORP does not address payroll, bad legs, and what is actually out there for replacement players. Get off your soapbox: we "get" what it is, but it is only a small part of the equation here.
Spectacular
Like I already freaking said, finding league-replacement players for certain positions have been very tough for the Twins for whatever reason. I'm not saying move Mauer to third, I'm just saying if you move Mauer to third there's a good bet his offensive numbers aren't going to change. You're really talking about replacing Punto. You need a stat like VOPunto. In the Twins specific situation, where can we better stick a +VOPunto player. To my mind, a moving Mauer scenario gives the Twins flexibility to find that player over a couple positions. Comprende?
by natetheskate on Sep 5, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
If they move Mauer to third, they could fill the catcher position with Morales and Redmond. But they would be downgrading two positions defensively. Though he's an excellent athlete and he's smart enough to pick up third, it will take time for Mauer to get used to the position. To give you an idea, Alex Rodriguez won a gold glove at shortstop and struggled for at least a half season (some say more) making the transition to third. It would be harder for a catcher to do so. Brandon Inge is the best recent example, and he's done rather well after struggling for a full year to make the transition from catcher to third.
Or, they could move Morales to third and keep their best catcher behind the plate. I would not be averse to a Morales/Buscher platoon, with Morales serving as the third catcher, and a Mauer/Redmond catching split with Mauer as the DH a couple of times a week to save his legs. Morales was drafted as a second baseman, but I don't know when was the last time he played at a position other than catcher. With Buscher a marginal third baseman, third base would be a real question mark. Heintz has played over there about a quarter of the time the last two years, so he's actually better defensively at third than Morales. But somehow, a Heintz/Buscher platoon is not appealing. It's still better than Punto or L-Rod, though.
All things considered, I would rather keep a solid catching position and figure out a way to fill third base than have two positions in flux, one of which a middle of the diamond position.
Catchers
Who is now a poor-hitting third baseman instead of a gold glove catcher.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 6:03 PM EDT reply actions
Just thought I'd point out here
p.s.
Great
sorry,
Sorry you think that
Making struff up
You make stuff up Terry Ryan said to get under my skin? I don't think so. Truth be told, you just make stuff up when it suits you.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 4, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Just stop
You have been warned before. We have clear evidence that the other readers of this site don't like your antagonism--especially as it is directed at one person in particular.
If you don't have anything constructive to write, don't write anything at all. If you persist in this behavior, your commenting privileges will be revoked.
Antagonism
That "conciliatory note" was you bragging about how you deliberately misrepresent what I have said just to annoy me.
We have clear evidence that the other readers of this site don't like your antagonism--especially as it is directed at one person in particular.
by TT @ Twinkie Town on Sep 5, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
truth be told,
Truth be told, I believe he does as well. Nonetheless, as I always say just before griping about my wife: "It takes two to tango"
I don't say it as a meaningless cliche, but as a reminder to myself that I am just as much at fault for any argument that I participate in, and therefore attempt to force myself to look at my own issues of complicity.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 4, 2007 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
p.s.
I don't believe that banishing him is the appropriate answer. I believe ignoring his taunts are.
He does sometimes have some constructive arguments to make when others aren't allowing themselves to be sucked in to his perversity.
Therefore, if all of you who allow yourselves to get sucked in, just show a little restraint, he would be forced to move toward a more constructive participant. And provide a perspective that not everyone shares. THAT is, after all, what this site is about.
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 4, 2007 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Easier said than done
Nobody likes to be called an idiot, or a liar or stupid, or silly, or what have you. And it's especially difficult to be singled out. To just walk away from taunts like that can be construed as an admission of sorts. So I have always tried to defend myself. But you're right. It's really pointless with him. I suspect what he wants is for me to just quit posting. And I have often considered it. But that would really be an admission of sorts.
And if I left, he would just find another person to pick fights with. That's been his history at every other blog in town, and he's been banned from a few. I really believe that I have something of value to contribute, and the site would be worse off if I left. The net of it is he manages to sap all the fun out of the experience. So he wins in the end anyway. But I won't give up, and I will exercise the authority vested in me by our host Jesse if necessary.
Guys look at yourselves
Me? I'm trying to claw my way up to become a self-sustaining documentary filmmaker in Brooklyn while managing tens of thousands of dollars of grad school debt? What challenges do you face? Please, tell me.
I'll give you seven
- I'm finishing my MS thesis this fall
- I'm managing the the content standards for the largest Web site domain in the world (ibm.com)
- I'm remodeling my porch
- I'm raising my fourth-grade son as he starts in a new school
- I'm preparing for a new arrival to our family, a goldendoodle puppy named Sophie
- I'm just starting back with my two choirs after summer hiatus
- I'm getting ready for the groundbreaking of our new church, which my wife and I were instrumental in making happen
Thanks Cmath
TT, still waiting on you, buddy. CMath is going to be the winner of this challenge if you don't step up.
by natetheskate on Sep 5, 2007 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Flame wars
I can totally relate
by natetheskate on Sep 5, 2007 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Sources, supposition and swings
No newspaper columnist, not even Sid Hartman, could get away with patting himself on the back as much as Gleeman. No editor would allow that crap. If Gleeman and Sid had a contest to determine who is more insecure, Gleeman would win.
Gleeman also never feels compelled to give his targets a chance to respond. But then Gleeman isn't a real news person, so he doesn't have access to the people he rips, and more importantly he doesn't have to look them in the eye each day.
Also, the guy is so lost in his numbers that he can't see the forest for the trees.
Souhan? His best work is on TV.
>>>I have yet to meet a catcher above the age of 16 who didn't admit that his knees hurt.
How many have you talked to? Seriously. Can you name 20 of the pro catchers who told you this? I'll accept Northern Leaguers.
When you're 16, nothing hurts. And even in college you're not catching enough that it causes a healthy man's knees to ache. So this comment is called into dispute even without you supporting it with testimony from pro catchers.
>>It's not at all surprising that Mauer says the injuries hurt his power - that's what injuries do.
While it is clear that the wobbly pegs have diminished Mauer's power, Mauer's swing has been a mess most of the year.
Souhan's shecky greenishness
by montanatwinsfan on Sep 4, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say
But you still. . .
Again: Who are these people? How many have you spoken to? How many grade school catchers? How many high school? How many in amateur ball. How many made it to Class A? Class AA? Etc.
by Firpo Marberry on Sep 6, 2007 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
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