Guerrier Signs

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 24, 2008 3:24 PM EST in News Comment 20 comments

Avoiding arbitration hearings, the Twins and reliever Matt Guerrier agreed today on a one year contract worth $950,000. This represents a general compromise by both sides. The Twins had offered $750,000 in arbitration for Guerrier and Guerrier had requested $1.15 million.

This comes at no surprise as most assumed Guerrier and the Twins would be able to come to an agreement before the time of hearings.

This now leaves only Cuddyer unsigned. Cuddyer is and was the player with the biggest difference between his asking price and the Twins' offer. Last year, Cuddyer finally agreed to a contract in a hallway, literally moments before the arbitration hearing was set to began. The process looks to be about as difficult this year.

I'd like to see a quote from Guerrier or Smith, but there isn't one out there yet. I'll pass it along when I find one.

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I'm glad

they reached an agreement right in the middle. That's pretty much where I thought the "fair deal" range was. Congrats and welcome back, Matt Guerrier. Here's to continued success in what you do.

by Jesse on Jan 24, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I think most of us pegged this one almost right on the nose.

Good stuff.

Now let's get some longterm deals done! Cuddy/Morneau/Young/Neshek/Kubel/Liriano. I'd be happy with any/all of them.

by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

morneau

Honestly, what Morneau is going to want in a contract is going to be more than he is really worth. Unless he returns and stays at his '06 levels, the Twins would probably be better off trading him. Firstbasemen with a roughly .340-50 OBP are not exactly difficult to find. With a little luck, Morneau might only be the 3th or 4th best hitter on the team this year; after Mauer, Kubel, Delmon andor Cuddyer (unless they do stick him in center, which is just crazy).

Anyone want Jose Vidro? Please?

by larrybowa on Jan 24, 2008 10:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Completely disagree...

Morneau at his "worst" in 2007 was still one of the best 1b in the league offensively, and he's top 2-3 defensively as well.

by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wouldnt call last year his worst

Since they have him under control for 3 years (I was thinking 2, but he flew just under 4 yrs of service time by 4 days), they should probably take a chance and see what he does this year before offering him a contract that a recent MVP will want. Unless they can get him to give up a year or two of FA (which for him probably wouldn't be very financially intelligent) by signing him to a 4-5 yr deal that doesn't break the Twins' bank, he could probably command a pretty hefty return from a team like the Yankees. The Yanks are seriously in need of a solid 1B, and seemingly have become rather good at creating a solid collection of prospects. I wouldn't trade JuMo yet, but in a year or two, it will probably make a lot of sense to see what type of offers the big market teams have. Texas faced a similar situation with Teixeira last year and made a very good deal.

Anyone want Jose Vidro? Please?

by larrybowa on Jan 24, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guess it depends on which you believe...

the 2006 or the 2007 version.

Personally, I think he's a whole lot closer to the 2006 version than the 2007 version, especially with increased lineup protection this season.

If that's true, this is the lowest his value will ever be.

by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hopefully for the twins sake he is '06

And yes with his value potentially at its lowest right now, the Twins would be wise to sign him now, but JuMo would probably not exactly have his best interest in signing longterm. And if you are correct, and returns to '06 form, I just feel that he could be too pricey and that his trade value could net a return that sets up the Twins even longer term. Especially after Santana gets traded to the Mets for essentially quantity.

Anyone want Jose Vidro? Please?

by larrybowa on Jan 25, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But something you're forgetting...

is that the Twins haven't exactly had power hitters grow on trees of late. In fact, we've been downright barren when it comes to them.

I'm not so sure he's all that easily replaceable.

He's said he wants to sign now, so hopefully the Twins will get it done. If I had to bet, I'd actually say that they will come to terms on a longterm deal (5-6 years) before the start of the season. Which is fine by me.

by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's true

I did just recheck the Twins' numbers from last year, and geez, not even 120 HR. And if he seriously wants to sign now, then the Twins should definitely get it done, assuming he doesn't ask for the moon.

Anyone want Jose Vidro? Please?

by larrybowa on Jan 25, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right...

I wouldn't give him "MVP" money. But I doubt he's asking for that after last year.

by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projecting Morneau

Looking at his career, his age 23 season (2005) is the aberration. Whatever could go wrong did. He has a long, lean frame that needs more lifting to stay strong than, say, a Cuddyer frame. When he wasn't able to lift for six months because of various illnesses, he lost all his stamina. I don't think that will happen again.

I think 2006 is a good projection for a couple more years. Recall he had a really slow start. But the last four months of 2006 he was by far the best hitter in the game. And I think he has more natural hitting ability than Mauer, which is saying a lot. He just gets a little over anxious and tries to do too much sometimes. Last year he slumped with less protection on a slumping team. I think he'll do well with more protection now. And more maturity will help as well.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And remember...

he's still young. He's only 26 and hasn't reached his prime yet.

by djskilbr on Jan 24, 2008 11:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Morneau

TO say he was one of the best first basemen in the league offensively in 2007 is pretty untrue.

In the AL, he ranked 7th in the league amoung starting first baseman in OPS. There was a pretty fair dropoff after that, so he was the worst of the big hitting AL first baseman. In MLB as a howl ehe ranked as low as 17th, or a few spots higher, depending on how many at bats at the position you require to call a player "starting" (I counted a couple guys with only about 400 PA's as starting.

Defensively, I don't think he's any better than pretty good. He never fields any balls that seem beyond the norm and his scooping capabilities are only decent. There really isn't much else for a first baseman to do that that. He was only above average among first baseman in fielding percentage, around 12th in MLB, so I don't see where that superior fielding idea comes from.

His 2006 season obviously ranks him highly in the AL (his OPS would have been only beet by Pena in TB, who had a shockingly high 1.037 OPS) The average of his OPS the last two years, about .885, would be 3rd in the AL this year, but only 9th or 10th in the MLB (odd how mroe of the bigger hitting first basemen were in the NL this year). This is counting the DH guys of course, like ORtiz or Hafner.

Of course he is only 26, and those numbers are all still very solid, but he isn't the elite power hitter probably that some fans think... though he is a very big bat. Trading him for the right offer wouldn't be ridiculous, because he's not probably so good that nobody could probably make an equal offer.

That all said, I would like to see him resigned and all, not traded. Just pointing out a BIT of realism with Morneau.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 25, 2008 12:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh

Oh, and I agree Morneau's asking price, this offseason, is probably more than he's worth. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins wait one more year. Ideally he'll have a year averaging 2006 and 2007, preferably without any of the long troubling slumps, and we'll feel confident in giving him slugger money.

But he doesn't deserve MVP level money because he's not clse to proven that's a consistent thing for him, and honestly, objectively, he wasn't really a top numerical choice even for the award that year.

But I want to finish again by saying, I DO hope he's a Twins for a long time and that he hits a lot of homers here.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 25, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Weird, Adam...

I had just looked at team 1b production by OPS, and we were 3rd in that, only .01 off of 2nd place Baltimore.

Were our replacement 1b really that much better than the others? Crazy.

Anyway, those are fair points. And I know you want him extended longterm too. I just really do believe he's much closer to 2006 than 2007 offensively. Last year he tailed off so that effected his numbers, but think about our lineup the last couple months. Kubel got going decently, and Hunter had a good year. But Mauer was injured, and Cuddyer was a shell of himself because he was injured too. The man had almost zero lineup protection.

I guess I just feel he will bounce back in a BIG way this year with all of the added protection in Young/Kubel/Lamb/Harris/healthy Mauer and Cuddyer. And I don't want the Twins to have to shell out the extra dough we're likely (in my mind) to lose from that big year.

I have to disagree on his fielding. For instance, according to the Fielding Bible, he's been the 6th best defensive 1b in baseball over the last 3 years. And one of the guys above him is essentially a bench player, Dougy Mint.

by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 12:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

By the way...

now that Tex is gone, the only 1b in the AL that I would definitely rank above him in fielding is Casey Kotchman, personally. Pena, Overbay and Youk would be comparable to me I suppose. Youk has really improved at 1b.

by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 12:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

AL 1b

I had somewhat forgotten that as a group AL 1b have become a little substandard of late. And Youk is awesome with the glove. Plus I love his approach offensively. I remember a postgame interview where he was asked if, during an important AB, he was tempted to swing at a couple of close pitches that were balls, and without missing a beat he replied, "Obviously you don't know me, I don't swing at balls." Fabulous answer.

Anyone want Jose Vidro? Please?

by larrybowa on Jan 25, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ya, i love youk...

anyone that can go basically a full SEASON in the minors getting on base EVERY game gets some love in my book.

by djskilbr on Jan 25, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BA

I think it's all batting average for Morneau. Morneau's BA dropped that big .50 points from 06' to 07'. His OBP went down with it about 30 points and his slugging down with it about 65 points. So both his isolated power and isolated patience didn't chance by an amount greater than you might expect some year to year variation anyway.

So there is one of two ways he can improve. He couls A> gain more isolated patience and power or B> raise his BA back up.

I don't think he'll raise his isolated patience by too much. He COULD raise his isloated power by a bit, but it just doesn't seem likely to me.

So that means probably the bet way for him too atch 2006 HAS to come through batting average. Is he truely a yearly .321 hitter? I'm going to have to say no. .290, probably, but I don't think he's a .320 hitter on a yearly basis.

SO that probably puts him at that in between range again, around an .880 OPS or so.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 25, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

Morneau's BABIP was .336 in '06 and .275 in '07. So luck is the difference in the numbers from one year to the next. Considering his deep numbers don't account for the difference, I think you can split the difference in your '08 projection.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs