Twinkie Town: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: The Michigan Fan's Guide to Beating Ohio State Bar-right-arrows



Ranking the deals

In know this is the umpteenth ranking of proposed deals on the table for Johan Santana, but there seems to be lack of consensus on who's offering the best deal. LEN3 just posted a blog entry that got more than 700 comments in one day on the subject. According to LEN3, it's down to the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets. Each team is offering four players, including a major league center fielder and three prospects.

The trouble is, how do we evaluate the rumored deals side by side when there is such a lack of consensus on the prospects involved. Seth Stohs ranks the prospects bandied about. His ranking differs greatly from John Sickels' rankings of the Yankees , Red Sox, and Mets. I could go into other subscription sources, which differ from both rankings, but Seth and Sickels will suffice for this discussion. The only difficulty is several of the players are no longer prospects, so I will have to slot them in based on my own appraisal because neither ranks them. Feel free to dispute my slotting of the major leaguers involved in the comments section.

First, let's examine whom various media reports have identified as trade targets:

Red Sox
There are two packages on the table: One involves John Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. The other involves Jacoby Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a fourth prospect--either Michael Bowden or Ryan Kalish. I don't think the Sox will hold up the deal if it's over Bowden versus Kalish.

Yankees
The two solid names are Melky Cabrera and Philip Hughes. At one time, talks broke off because the Twins demanded Ian Kennedy and another prospect and the Yankees would only part with one mid-level prospect and certainly not Kennedy. Well, talks are back on and they have come to the middle somewhat. The Twins have backed off their demands for Kennedy and the Yankees have agreed to offer two prospects somewhat above midlevel. The best we can guess right now is it's pitcher Jeff Marquez and either Jose Tabata or Austin Jackson. Rumor has it the Yankees are higher on Tabata than the Twins, so I would finger Jackson as the fourth element.

Mets
There is a lot less clarity on the Mets because of persistent rumors that the Twins are demanding Jose Reyes in a trade despite Minaya's adamant refusal and the Twins acquisition of Adam Everette. I dispute these rumors on another diary on this site. So I'm going to set them aside and go with a more credible list.

The list I've seen starts with Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez and two pitchers from a list of four: Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.

Star-divide

Now let's examine the two rankings. Seth ranks them thus (with the Twins own prospects sprinkled in for reference and some mind blowingly optimistic upside projects to go along with them):

Philip Hughes - New York Yankees - Roger Clemens
Fernando Martinez - New York Mets - Ken Griffey Jr
Carlos Gomez - New York Mets - Carlos Beltran
Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - Johnny Damon
Deolis Guerra - New York Mets - Pedro Martinez
Jose Tabata - New  York Yankees - Andre Dawson
·         Tyler Robertson
·         Anthony Swarzak
Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox - Andy Pettitte
Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - Dustin Pedroia with more pop
Ian Kennedy - New York Yankees - Kevin Slowey
·         Trevor Plouffe
Kevin Mulvey - New York Mets - Jon Garland
Jeff Marquez - New York Yankees - Freddy Garcia
·         Brian Duensing
·         Jeff Manship
Michael Bowden - Boston Red Sox - Jake Peavy
·         Chris Parmelee
·         Danny Valencia
·         Alex Burnett
·         Joe Benson
Ryan Kalish - Boston Red Sox - Austin Kearns (the good year)
Austin Jackson - New York Yankees - Jason Bay (at best)
·         Erik Lis
·         Eduardo Morlan - traded to Tampa
·         Oswaldo Sosa
·         Ben Revere
Justin Masterson - Boston Red Sox - Carlos Silva
·         David Winfree

Just going on Sickels' preliminary ranking and assigning my own ranking for the non prospects in parentheses:

Philip Hughes: (A)
Jacoby Ellsbury: A-
Jed Lowrie: A-
Fernando Martinez: B+
Jose Tabata: B+
Ian Kennedy: B+
John Lester: (B+)
Deolis Guerra: B+
Carlos Gomez: B (might go to B+ in the book)
Kevin Mulvey: B (might go to B+ in the book)
Melky Cabrera: (B)
Coco Crisp: (B)
Michael Bowden: B
Justin Masterson: B
Ryan Kalish: B
Austin Jackson: B-
Philip Humber: B-
Jeffrey Marquez: C+

I tend to side with Sickels' ranking based on esoteric analysis from my new favorite site: firstinning.com, which I urge you to do on your own time. I know Sickels pays attention to such things as FIP, GB%, BAPIP and LD%, which are the gold standard of my evaluations. Seth pays more attention to ERA, age, and walk rate, which are important too, but less so, IMO.

The other thing to consider is how well the three packages fit into the Twins short and long-term plans. All things considered, I would rather have the package that helps this team win a championship in the new ballpark as opposed to competing for the wild card in 2008. Your mileage may vary. I pick the best deals without really knowing whether the teams would give up these packages.

  1. Red Sox: Ellsbury (A-), Lowrie (A-), Bowden (B) and Masterson (B).
  2. Mets: Martinez (B+),  Guerra (B+), Gomez (B), and  Mulvey (B).
  3. Yankees: Hughes (A), Cabrera (B), Jackson (B-) and Marquez (C+)
One proviso: The Mets might not give up Guerra and might prefer Humber (B-) instead. In which case, they still don't slip into Yankee land, but their deal is less attractive. Also, I'm not as sold on Guerra as Sickels is. His grade is mostly due to his age (18) and level (A+). But his numbers suggest he's being rushed in typical Mets fashion. And if the Yankees exchange Tabata (B+) for Jackson, their offer suddenly vaults them ahead of the Mets, but still does not get them into Red Sox territory.

Conclusion
If I were Bill Smith, I would take any of the three offers. But I think the Red Sox's offer gives the Twins the best chance long term while the Yankees offer gives the Twins the best chance short term. The Mets offer gives better long term value than the Yankees but little short-term value.

Poll
Which is the best deal?
Red Sox: Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden, and Masterson
106 votes
Mets: Martinez, Guerra, Gomez, and Mulvey
109 votes
Yankees: Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson, and Marquez
112 votes

327 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Hughes might be as good as Roger Clemens?
and Martinez is getting compared to Ken Griffey Jr.?

"mind blowingly optimistic" and that might still be a bit of an understatement.  

by montanatwinsfan on Jan 5, 2008 1:52 PM EST   0 recs

Ultimately, I voted for the Yankees package
but I must admit, I've flip-flopped between the Yanks and Sox deals for a while.  

Today, I'm feeling like the best move is to take the best player, the guy who could be competing for post-season awards over the next 5 years.  That's Hughes.  

by Eric in Madison on Jan 5, 2008 2:54 PM EST   0 recs

I know it's illogical, but...
I'm hoping he goes to the Mets just for my own peace of mind. The prospects we would get aren't as good, but having him go to the NL and not become a member of the Yankees or Red Sox is worth a lot to me. I don't love the Mets by any means, but I would much rather root for Santana pitching for them than for anyone in the AL East.

You also seem to have forgotten about Pelfrey. Wouldn't he be a valuable short term player from the Mets? I would probably switch him out for Mulvey in the deal.

by eahnpurato on Jan 5, 2008 3:02 PM EST   0 recs

Yankees
I'd love the Yankees deal, especially if it included Tabata.  he looks like he's about as good as Kennedey only further away from the majors.  I also think Cabrera is better than the B you rank, but everyone knows I'm higher on him than some around here.

Hughes is the best player on the board.  Cabrera has proven he can hold his own at CF in the majors over two full seasons, and will still only be 23 this year.  Tabata is also raked as one of the top pitching prospects.  That's a nice deal already right there.  Jeff Marquez is a great "toss-in."  he hasn't torn the world apart like some of the top prospects, but he has pitched fairly well at several levels, including a good performance in AA this year as a relatively young 22 year old.  A pitcher who has performed pretty well while being pushed semi-aggressively through the minors after playing no college ball is a good talent, especially when he was a former first round pick.

Any time your toss in is a first round pick, well, that's pretty good.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 5, 2008 4:55 PM EST   0 recs

Tabata
Tabata is a right fielder. I'm not as high on him as others. Like Guerra, his grade is due mostly to his age. He's puny (5-11, 160), fast, and sports little power. But he was only 19 at A+, so that boosts his grade over and above where it should be IMO. What I'm looking at are his BABIP, LD% and GB% numbers.

He had a .360 BABIP with a GB% of 60% and  LD% of 10%. So he was a chop-and-dash hitter, which doesn't project to much of a major leaguer with his size.

It resulted in the following line:
Age 19, 460 PA, .307/.379/.392. 33BB, 70K, 21XBH

Compare it to Player A:
Age 21, 225 PA .339/.410/.403. 22BB ,25K 7XBH

Quick Quiz, who is player A? Here's an anagram:  Nards Pane. This chop-and-dash center fielder had a line that made him look like a good prospect. He could get away with little power because he played a premium center field position.

Not so for Tabata, who might have the tools, but he didn't play center at all last year.

Personally, I'd rather have Austin Jackson, who does play center field, and sported this line as a 20 year old in A+ last year:  284 PA .345/.398/.566. 22BB 48K

He 31 XBH in half teh PAs of Tabata in the same league. He did have similar BABIP (.395), LD% (11), and GB% (50) numbers. So there is some concern there. But at 6-1, 185 playing a premium defensive position, he at least has a good chance to be a major leaguer. I'm not so sure about Tabata at this point.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 5, 2008 5:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

A Jack
I too would rather have A Jackson than Jose Tabata.  Here is the scouting report on both from Baseball Prospectus.  A Jackson was ranked third and Tabata fourth.  Both were also classified as "Four Star" prospects in the Five Star to One star ranking given by BBProspectus.

3. Austin Jackson, OF
DOB: 2/1/87
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 8th round, 2005, Ryan HS (TX)
2007 Stats: .260/.336/.374 at Low-A (60 G); .345/.398/.566 at High-A (67 G); .333/.600/.667 at Triple-A (1 G)

Year In Review: The athletic outfielder was struggling again at Low-A until some mechanical changes in his swing helped him suddenly take off.
The Good: Jackson is loaded with tools, possessing above-average speed and power. The Yankees rebuilt his swing, shortening his stride and trying to add more balance by reducing his exaggerated step. This led to a quicker bat and a much more level swing plane, while also allowing him to tap into his power. He's an excellent baserunner who gets great jumps on steal attempts, while also showing good defensive instincts.
The Bad: Jackson still lunges at some breaking balls, especially on the outside half. As a player who needs to hit at the top of the lineup, he needs to develop a more patient approach and improve his pitch recognition. He's lost a bit of speed since his high school days, and some worry that if he continues to fill out, he'll slow to the point where he has to move to a corner.
Fun Fact: Jackson was arguably better at basketball than baseball in high school. One of the top hoops prospects in the country, he'd committed to Georgia Tech, and possibly would have been the starting point guard as a freshman.
Perfect World Projection: A star-level outfielder who contributes 20/20 seasons annually.
Timetable: Jackson's second-half surge was one of the more pleasant surprises in an organization full of them. With his previous struggles, he still has some doubters, and Double-A will be a test for him that everyone will be watching closely.

4. Jose Tabata, OF
DOB: 8/12/88
Height/Weight: 5-11/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Venezuela
2007 Stats: .307/.371/.392 at High-A (103 G)

Year In Review: The top-notch hitting prospect more than held his own at High-A as an 18-year-old before his season ended prematurely due to hamate bone surgery.
The Good: Tabata is a gifted hitter with outstanding bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing the ability to hit any pitch, anywhere, from both lefties and righties. He's an average runner and a good right fielder with the arm strength for the position. He plays under control and with a confidence far beyond his years.
The Bad: While Tabata's hand problems were a year-long issue and mitigating factor, scouts are beginning to question his power ceiling. He's not especially big, and his swing is on a level plane--so while the ball flies off his bat, it's not overly loaded with loft or backspin. If he doesn't develop power, he doesn't really match the profile normally associated with the position. He could also use a more patient approach.
Fun Fact: When playing right field, Tabata hit .335, but when playing designated hitter only, Tabata hit just .169 in 71 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: Most are convinced that Tabata will hit .300+ in the majors. It's the development of his secondary skills that will define whether or not he ends up as an impact player.
Timetable: Tabata is expected to be healthy for spring training, and once again, he'll be extremely young for his level, playing in Double-A as a nineteen year old.

Personally though.  I would rather have a deal with Boston and instead of Bowden I would like Ryan Kalish, who could play Center or move to left, or Instead of Masterson I would love me some Lars Anderson.

Bottom line is that Morneau is going to be around for three more years, if we could get a Lars Anderson to replace Morneau in 2011, or a Ryan Kalish who projects as a 15-20 HR with 40sb's to fill CF in 2011 they should go for it.  We always develop great pitching, but lack the quality position players to make the Jump from Division winners to World Series Champs.

How many times have we hear that the TB Rays are gonna win the World Series in 2010-2011.  It's because their awesome young arms (Which we have), and their position prospects (Which we don't).  And they have to play NY and Boston 19 times a year.  If we had those position prospects to step in 2010, we will easily contend with an Aging Tigers club (Who have no one left in the Minors besides Porcello), a White Sox club that can't decide if they are going to rebuild or try and contend each year, an Indians club that won't be able to retain guys like Sizemore, and a Royals club that is getting better and should be a lot better than they are now.

I really like what Bill Smith has done so far, and the more I read the more excited I get, but I don't want to try and contend till 2010, I want a plan and I want to win when the new Stadium is built.  I read somewhere that having 85 wins isn't any better than having 75 wins if you don't make the playoffs, and having 75 wins isn't any better than 65... probably worse because you have a better draft pick with only 65 wins.  Right now we are an 85 win team.  Thats like Betting on the Jags over the Steelers, giving up 3 points, and they don't try and score a TD in the final two minutes of the game.... Doooooh!!!!!  Damn Odds makers....

Hook it up Boston.... and I think if the Yankmees are going to upgrade to Jackson or Tabata, we should get a litle more from the RedSox... Maybe Lars, Maybe Kalish?????

I don't really like anything the Mets have to offer... I loved Carlos Gomez, till I saw him try and hit Major League Pitching.  And F Mart... Not sold... Pelfrey looked good before the start of the season, horible during, and Humber would be a buy low type of guy... But there is no Lester, Hughes type there....

Trav

by trap11 on Jan 6, 2008 7:48 AM EST   0 recs

deals...
I don't know if we can assume that Jackson or Tabata would be the 4th player. I recall at the meetings the Twins wanted Jackson as the third player in the Hughes/Cabrera offer and the Yankees declined, stating they only wanted to give up a "second-tier" prospect. Maybe I'm mistaken, or maybe things have changed. Or maybe none of us really know.

I've read a couple of times that the Twins and Red Sox are both willing to expand the deal (presumably so that the Twins can get both Ellsbury and Lester). But it's hard to imagine how that would work. The Red Sox hardly have any need for whatever position players that might be available from the Twins; and the Twins aren't exactly well-positioned to give up more pitching.

We'll see.

Also, I disagree the Twins don't need to worry about the pitching. Presuming Johan's dealt, the Twins will have lost Santana, Silva, and Garza, three guys who combined threw 504 quality innings (ERA+ over 100) last year. That's an enormous blow to the pitching staff, I don't care who you are. And it's not like the Twins can go out and buy pitching on the market.

And I think the in-house pitching depth is a little bit oversold right now. How many guys do they have who you can really expect/hope to be an above average starter? Scott Baker. That's one. Certainly when healthy Liriano was dominating, but we A) Don't know exactly how he'll be post-surgery, since he has yet to throw a competitive pitch and B) Aren't sure when he'll be ready to help the big club. Slowey might be decent and will get a shot, Bonser might be so-so, Perkins...Blackburn... see where I'm going? These guys might all turn out alright--maybe Liriano, Baker, and Slowey all join to form a decent 1-2-3 at the top, each tossing 200 innings annually, with formidable guys battling it out for the bottom two slots--but that's best-case scenario.

I think if they had waited on dealing Garza until after Johan was dealt, they maybe could have been happy with, say, the Ellsbury deal. But right now I think they need to get at least one guy they like who they can start.

That's part of why I'm starting to think maybe the Mets have a decent shot. If the Twins could get two starters (say, Pelfrey--who, although he's not my favorite, has been considered to have front-end potential in the past--and Mulvey) to help restock the rotation plus a toolsy boom-or-bust center fielder in Gomez plus a teenage blue-chipper in Fernando Martinez (who would instantly become the Twins best position prospect), that wouldn't be terrible. It would require a serious shift in strategy on the part of the Twins, since that deal's more about potential than MLB-ready guys, but sometimes to get the best return, you need to find the "untouchable" guys before they become "untouchable." (Grady Sizemore was 19 and toiling in the lower minors--not showing much power--when he was the third player included in the Bartolo Colon deal.)

I agree with cmathewson, though. I think all 3 (or 4) potential deals have their merits. They're probably not what most of us expected when this whole thing started rolling, but with Santana's contract demands dampening everything, it is what it is.

Also, historically, trading pitchers of Johan's stature doesn't always lead to dream packages:

-Expos dealt a young Pedro to the Red Sox for Tony Armas, Jr. and Carl Pavano. (Probably a good lesson about the dangers of hinging the entire deal on pitching prospects.)

-Mariners dealt Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen. Turned out to be a pretty decent deal for the M's (although Guillen didn't become Guillen until he went to the Tigers). The M's certainly didn't get hurt by it, as all 3 guys were big-time contributors to a 116-win season.

-A's dealt Tim Hudson for Charles Thomas and Juan Cruz (and some more riffraff, I believe). Not a good deal.

-A's dealt Marc Mulder for Dan Haren and Daric Barton. Great deal.

by jianfu on Jan 6, 2008 1:09 PM EST   0 recs

On the pitching
Good Post... And I would agree with most of it but you left out the fact that in dealing Santana we will end up with Lester (23 type) Hughes (1 starter) Marquez (jury still out) Pelfrey(34 type)
So while I agree that the staff is taking a Major League Dip losing Santana, Silva and Garza... In trading Santana and getting back high quality pitchers back that in the future have a great chance to be as good or better than 2 of the 3 we lost.
All this is leaving out the fact if Santana is gone Nathan will be close behind and his trade Value, with his 6 Million dollar contract, is very high right now and I am sure we will get back some very good prospects for him.

So just losing Santana and getting nothing in return, I agree 100% with your post, but that isn't the case unless we don't trade Santana and get nothing in return (Besides a draft pick).

Also... Thanks for the Fact on Sizemore... I never knew that....

Happy New Year

Travis

Trav

by trap11 on Jan 6, 2008 10:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think you guys...
are also forgetting about Cisco back.  So really, if we keep Johan, we're essentially down 1 starter from last year (Cisco replaces Garza or Silva, and he's much better than both).  

And if we deal Johan, we're getting one back, so we're still down just 1.  

And it's not like the replacements are chop liver.  They figure to be just as good as Silva, and remember that we're also replacing those awful innings from Ortiz/Ponson earlier in the year.

I think this whole "losing 3 starters from the rotation" line of logic has been way overhyped, personally.

by djskilbr on Jan 7, 2008 12:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

pitching...
To be clear, my point is the Twins should get a starter back. That's all. (Which is obviously a point of agreement.) I was responding to the notion I've seen out there a couple times (Joe Sheehan most notably; and I thought I saw hints of it earlier in the thread) that the Twins ought to get mainly bats for Johan.

I think they're working to get Ellsbury and Lester together (either by expanding the deal, or perhaps conceding some on the back end). That would be the most "complete" offer, and would set them up well for the forseeable future. Lester adds a quality starter, and Ellsbury and Lowrie would be the tablesetters for the Mauer/Young/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel young core. That's got potential to be the best offense we've seen here for a long time.  A guy to follow like Bowden, Masterson, or Kalish would be gravy.

But separately, the two Boston offers are rather incomplete, and I could see the Twins sending him to one of the NYs if they can't get the Red Sox to merge the offers. Those are both "incomplete" offers, as well, but the star potential's higher.

Whatever happens, I'm sure there will be surprised in the actual return if/when it happens. Seems like higher profile trades that take a long time to develop always have a bit of surprise that way.

by jianfu on Jan 7, 2008 1:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Here's a wild-eyed thought
The Twins take the Red Sox package and send Masterson, Bowden, Casilla, Span and another arm to the Orioles for Eric Bedard.

If the Twins get Ellsbury and Lowrie, it renders Span and Casilla unnecessary.

The thought of getting Ellsbury, Lowrie and Bedard for Santana and spare parts is pretty exciting. I know the Orioles probably wouldn't go for it, though.

If the Twins don't get that major league arm out of the deal, they would need to sign a veteran free agent such as Colon or Jennings. I'd rather get a young pitcher, though.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 7, 2008 2:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

'Cisco'
Given his current injury, and his history of injuries:

believing Liriano will be a 200+ innings eater in 2008 is like believing Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer will all three return to their 2006 numbers; overly optimistic.

believing Liriano will be a number 1 starter and a dominating pitcher for the entire 2008 season (which I understand you are not doing djskilbr) is like believing Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer will all three show improvement over their 2006 form (which some people actually believed would happen in 2007); foolish.

We cannot realistically trade away Sanata without a starter in return.

by montanatwinsfan on Jan 7, 2008 4:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

How
How did I think Tabata was a pitcher?  I have no idea where that came from...
Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Jan 6, 2008 3:15 PM EST   0 recs

Red Sox
Lester has better numbers than Hughes and was not 100%. and has performed in the post season. coco crisp is tori hunter without the power and steals more bases/runs. lowrie can start at short or second now. and masterson is projected to be in the sox bullpen by mid season. 4 solid MLB players for a guy we cannot afford is clearly the best way to go. I believe the Red Sox don't really want to trade these guys accept to keep santana from the Yankees. I think both the Yanks and Sox hope we trade him to the mets. as for Ellsbury,he could be great, but he could be just average too. and if we do that trade, the Sox rotation for the next 6 years will be: Beckett,Santana,Dice-K, Lester,Buchholz. Wont matter what we do, you wont be able to get past that. I say Lets trade santanas potential 20 wins for lesters 15 and get a stellar defensive cf and a shortstop with pop and another pitcher to contribute this year, plus we can get another good prospect thrown in, say Kalish or ask for hansen the closer.

by realfan on Jan 7, 2008 8:20 AM EST   0 recs

The Red Sox deal....
Is, overall, a good one. Lester, who comes out as the 7th pitcher on the Red Sox current depth chart, would fit in nicely with the Twins need for 2008. That Boston couldn't find a replacement for him if/when two spots open up in their rotation (Bucholz taking one) in 2008 is a given. The Red Sox would also be getting Santana for 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 and maybe an 8th year if they lay an option on the table. If healthy, that's a lot.

Ellsbury would be nice. The Twins should be able to hold onto him for hopefully six seasons minimum. Crisp would be worable, the Twins get two (hopefully) decent seasons before someone steps forward in the minors. But, like Lester, the Red Sox aren't losing anyone. They have Ellsbury to take Crisp's palce and would then sign Kielty as the backup.

Not sure if we still need Lowrie. Though he probably projects far better than any of the nuber of infielders in the Twins current system (Buscher, Watkins, Macri, Basak, Macahdo, Clark, Punto). Do you keep him as the second reserve? Hope that Casilla and Lowrie take the palce of Everett and Harris in 2009?

Masterson and another pitcher would be nice.

Like others, it seems, I'm stuck on the Red Sox offering a nice package for Johan, but not giving us anything that they would truly miss. I don't think we need to care about how the players dealt will affect their organization charts, just how they fit into making the Twins stronger.

Hughes could be a stud. Melkey would give us one year less than Ellsbury, but most know what he can do. Imagine Hughes, like Ellsbury, would hapily walk if their numbers permit when free-agency comes about.

check out Twinkies autograph collection at www.TwinsCards.com

by twintown on Jan 7, 2008 12:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The sox players
The Red Sox are loaded and because they are letting guys go doesnt mean that they are sub par. Lester is the # 4 guy this year not 7. Lowrie should be at short, but they have too much in lugo. crisp as a hopefully? this guy is steady and out of boston, I bet he is 15 to 20 points better. I personally think Boston is nuts to trade with us. Santana could blow out his arm and can he really take the pressure there? lester will win 14-15 games this year and santana 20, are 5 wins worth 7/140? I say ellsbury will win 5-7 with his legs and bat and defense, so for 20mil less the sox get the same output. this is why We should take their deal, before they wake up and pull it. then the bidding goes down.

by realfan on Jan 7, 2008 8:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm warming to the Yankee deal
If the Yankees include Austin Jackson, Cabrera can be a two-year stop gap in center and Jackson can be the CF of the future. The thought of a Hughes/Liriano 1-2 punch in 2009-10 is pretty exciting.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 7, 2008 1:17 PM EST   0 recs

Bedard
I'm responding to Cmath's post, but i'm putting it at the end to make it easier to track new messages.

I like this line of thinking, so lets see where it goes, and how much it would take. I propose the following as at least plausible:

We trade Santana and Revere for Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie and Bowden and Masterson. I have no idea how high Boston is on Revere, and maybe we have someone they prefer, but he is a younger, ableit less good version of Ellsbury, making it easier for them to justify giving up both.

We Trade (One of Bonser, Baker, Duensing or Blackburn), Cuddyer, Casilla and Span for Bedard and a corner outfield or corner infield prospect (who do they have?). We offer Bedard a four year 3 year extension (in addition to the 2 he already has) at $15m / yr. Don't know if he'll take it, if not, trade him next year. Trading Cuddyer isn't that big of an issue, if you think that Kubel's knees can play 4-5 days a week. Bedard is excited because he gets to play for a team with hope, though its not the big market team he was hoping for.

Rotation: Bedard, Baker, Bonser, Liriano, Lester
Lineup: Ellsbury, Kubel, Mauer, Young, Morneau, Lamb, Monroe, Harris, Everret
Bench: Redmond, Punto, Morales, Pridie
Pen (depends on Nathan): Neshek, Crain, Rincon,  
Blackburn, Reyes, Slowey, Guerrier

That's a damn good team. Granted one of those starters might go to the O's, but they're replaceable by Slowey/Guerrier/ with Masterson/Duensing etc. available for the spot in the pen. This would, however, leave us a bit shorter in AA and AAA, depending on whom we get for Nathan. I'm assuming here that he provides a couple of AA and AAA prospects, but not ML ready ones, to help get the best value.

So, is this even feasible? Is it a wildly unlikely dream, or complete, baseless fiction?

by snolls on Jan 7, 2008 5:21 PM EST   0 recs

o's
I would think the O's want more pitching.  I would think it would take Swarzak, Bonser, and Cuddyer.  The question is do they need another corner OF?  They have Markakis.  I don't know who plays the other corner OF.  But they could use a SS to replace Tejada? so instead of Cuddyer we could trade Casilla or Plouffe and a CF prospect from Pridie, Span, Revere, or Joe Benson.

by doofus04 on Jan 7, 2008 6:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I forgot Lowrie
I guess that means Punto has to go to the Orioles. Darn!!!!!

by snolls on Jan 7, 2008 5:23 PM EST   0 recs

Markakis
There were rumors going around earlier this offseason that Markakis and Roberts want out of Baltimore, and that the Orioles think they should be able to get good value back for them. This is why I thought Cuddyer was a good addition. In addition, if they got Casilla, and/or Harris and/or Lowrie, then would would be able to field offers for either Markakis or Roberts. The nice thing for the Orioles is that they can be patient with both players, since they are still wrapped up for a bit.

Lastly, not that it would happen, but the O's could always put Cuddyer back at 3rd, depending on a) what happens with them at 3rd, and b) his willingness.

As for you're proposed deal, if one of Bonser/Baker and any one pitcher currently in the minors, and Cuddyer along with Span or Casilla would net Bedard, I'm for it. I have no concept of how Twins/O's/Others measure the relative values of these players.

by snolls on Jan 7, 2008 8:06 PM EST   0 recs

o's again
Markakis isn't going anywhere.  He has a few years (4 or 5) till he is a FA.  The Orioles will have to go through a youth movement to be competetive in a few years so they will want more prospects with upside than a veteran who will leave before they are competitive again.  That is why I suggested a group of players with little or no major league experience with upside.  I am not sure what is fair value either.  but 2 pitchers fill 2 rotation spots and a future SS and a potential CF or at least a backup OF is a nice haul.  Especially since they traded their SS, their CF is an average at best 36 year old, and they have rotation holes galore.  They also have a hole at 1B or they are at best average and need to upgrade to compete.  

by doofus04 on Jan 8, 2008 12:36 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

as for the 4 scenarios up there
I am voting for an expanded trade for Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and Kalish or not for Santana and ??? what else do the redsox need? Rincon? Redmond? another prospect? Crain?

by doofus04 on Jan 8, 2008 12:39 AM EST   0 recs

I do kind of wonder...
about Morales being a possibility there.

I hate to give him up because I think he will be very, very good, but if it meant him and Rincon to get a package like that, I might go for it.

He's exactly what Boston has been trying to get; a young C to groom behind Varitek with high upside.  How many other guys like him are out there?  Not many that I can see that are obviously available (we have Mauer and he isn't going anywhere).  

I wonder if that could work.

by djskilbr on Jan 8, 2008 4:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Morales
I suppose they can always get a veteran third catcher. But I would be surprised if they traded Morales at this time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jan 8, 2008 6:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

TT is an SB Nation blog of, by and for the fans. We strive to be the best Minnesota Twins blog by providing quality content and analysis, as well as daily news and notes on the team. We hope you'll make Twinkie Town your home for all things Twins!

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Images_small
Morneau, Mauer Take 2nd, 4th in MVP Voting
Images_small
Metrodome AL's Most Pitcher Friendly Park
Small
Minor League Report...November 15, 2008
Gophs_small
Free Agency News/Musings Courtesy of Wobble
Morneau_mvp_small
Part 2 of 3 - SS Moves
Morneau_mvp_small
Part 1 of 3 - 3B Moves
Small
Twins to Arizona?
Morneau_mvp_small
M&M Tandem Strikes Again
Img_9335_small
A Foul Ball Story
Small
Modified Top 20 Hitters

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Editor-In-Chief

Twinkietown_small Jesse

Senior Writer

Hrbek_small Jon Marthaler

Fatty_small cmathewson

Minor League Correspondent

Small SethSpeaks

Moderators

Images_small AdamOnFirst

ad

Site Meter