Where does Carlos Gomez fit in?

by SethSpeaks on Feb 7, 2008 12:12 AM EST Comment 44 comments

------- Deolis Guerra
1 - Anthony Swarzak
2 - Tyler Robertson
------- Kevin Mulvey
3 - Trevor Plouffe
4 - Ben Revere
5 - Jeff Manship

Now, I am certain that Carlos Gomez is not a rookie in 2008 and therefore is not really a prospect. However, he is under the 130 at bat threshhold, so places like Baseball America include him.

So, I figured we might as well figure out where Gomez would fit in our opinions. So, please vote for where you would rank Carlos Gomez.

Poll

Where would you rank Carlos Gomez?

#1 (before Guerra)

54 votes

#2 (after Guerra, before Swarzak)

37 votes

#3 (after Swarzak, before Robertson)

8 votes

#4 (after Robertson, before Mulvey)

10 votes

#5 (after Mulvey, before Plouffe)

1 votes

#6 (after Plouffe, before Revere)

1 votes

#7 (after Revere, before Manship)

3 votes

#8 (somewhere after Manship)

2 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 44 comments

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Comments

I voted

I voted for him right after Guerra, but I can easily see him being number one. I think he has the potential to be very very solid all around, with a hold-my-own bat, tons of speed, and very good defense in center. I hope he spends most of the year at AAA, but he may even be capable of hitting leadoff by 2009.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 7, 2008 12:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

He has all the raw talent to be a great player, and I hope they decide to keep him in the minors and stew for a while. I wouldn't be suprised if they called him up prematurely to appease an angry fan base that wants to see immediate results from the Santana trade.

by GhostiesOnSecond on Feb 7, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahead of Guerra

I had to put him ahead of Guerra because he's much closer to the majors, with similar if not greater upside.

In fact, Gomez compares well to Hanley Ramirez at the same age, except that Gomez was playing at least one level above where Ramirez played at the same age. I threw out last year's major league totals for Gomez, considering that he was badly rushed by the Mets.

Gomez
Age 20: AA 430 AB .281/.341/.423 27 BB / 97 SO
Age 21: AAA 140 AB .286/.363/.414 15 BB / 23 SO

Ramirez
Age 20: A+ 239 AB .310/.364/.389 17 BB / 39 SO
Age 20: AA 129 AB .310/.360/.512 10 BB / 26 SO
Age 21: AA 465 AB .271/.335/.385 39 BB / 62 SO

Hopefully Gomez will repeat Ramirez' production at the major league level this year or next...

by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good comp

Gomez's stock plummeted because he did not have immediate star-quality impact in New York. Good for us, because it means he's underrated and will exceed expectations. Bad for us, because it means to the casual fan that we did not get quality in return for Johan.

I've said it before: By almost every measure, Gomez is a better prospect than Martinez. He's faster, his body will support more strength, he's a vastly better defender, he has a stronger arm, and he has produced at a higher level at every stop. He's just older and more experienced. Whey should that drop his stock down?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 7, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It seems that there's...

...a pretty solid consensus amongst scouts that Martinez will hit more than Gomez. For players with such miniscule performance records (and records that are difficult to put in context since they've been pushed so fast), I'd put some weight into that. Having a well-rounded package is good, but it sounds like Martinez' bat will play wherever he gets moved on the diamond.

That said, I don't think there's a big difference in overall value between Gomez and Martinez. Because of the hitting, Gomez maybe has a slightly lower ceiling, but he's also closer to the bigs. In terms of overall value, I think Martinez and Gomez are pretty close right now.

by ubelmann on Feb 7, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scouting vs. numbers

I trust scouts' opinions. I just don't see much evidence of Martinez's supposed hitting prowess.

Part of that is that he just doesn't have much of a professional track record. He did well in the Sally League, except for his high strike-out rate. I guess if he had stayed there all year and kept up that pace, we'd have a pretty good sense of what we have, compared to, say, Parmelee (head and shoulder above).

But then he was ridiculously rushed to AA despite putting up pretty crappy numbers in the FSL, where he did not slug like he had, his strikeout rate increased and his line drive percentage plummeted. That's to be expected from an 18 year old. But I don't give a guy propers for stinking at higher levels than he should play. It tells us he was not ready for either level, but it tells us little else.

He might turn out to be a great hitter, he might not. But scouts are pretty clear that he will not make it to the majors as a center fielder. His best position might be left field. But other scouts say he's destined to end up at first base. If he has a Justin Morneau ceiling as a hitter, he deserves his high ranking. But if his ceiling is closer to, say, Mark Teahan, he does not deserve his ranking. It's just a huge risk for any team right now.

Gomez is a risk, but he's a much safer bet. He has gold-glove tools in center. So even if he tops out at Rocco Baldelli offensively, he's still a very good center field option. I project him in Carl Crawford territory offensively. Add the gold glove to that, and he's a bigger prize than Martinez could be even with Morneau bat potential.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 7, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

optimism

Cmath, you do such a great job of getting me pumped for Gomez. If he hits that Crawford-esque ceiling but with excellent D in CF, it'll salve a lot of the sting of losing Johan.

Nothing will stop me from getting a little bit physically ill seeing Santana in another team's uniform, though.

by ravenfly on Feb 7, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Mets Fan here, I come in peace lol.

But there's no way you can honestly say that Carlos Gomez is a better prospect then Fernando Martinez. Don't get me wrong. Both have high ceilings (I'd say Martinez's ceiling compares to a Miguel Cabrera type bat in Left Field, whereas Carlos Gomez's ceiling compares to a Carl Crawford type bat in Center Field. But if given the choice you choose the impact bat 10 times out of 10).

You're underestimating what Martinez did in AA. (Most of the following is paraphrased from MetsRefugees btw) Martinez was playing with a misdiagnosed hamate bone injury which dragged down his overall numbers before eventually leading to him being shut down. In May, Martinez hit .337/.400/.442 before the injury, which is insane considering that he is an 18 year old playing in AA baseball.

To put that age in perspective, John Manuel from Baseball America recently compared him to Carlos Lee. The problem here is that Carlos Lee was 22 years old when he was in AA. For Martinez to reach that mark he'd have to repeat the league 5 times. Even when compared to fellow 'phenoms' like Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, they find themselves behind the pace that Fernando Martinez is currently on. Omar Minaya has stated that his intent is to have Martinez be an Major League Player by the age of 20, like people like Juan Gonzalez and Sammy Sosa. Of course, Gonzalez was in A+ and Sosa was in A ball at the Age of 18.

Gomez on the other hand, while exciting, has alot of work that needs to be done. He has awesome pure tools (Mainly Defense and Speed), but the main concern is that his swing is a little too heavy on the wrists, making some wonder if he'll ever get the power in his arsenal. His plate discipline leaves alot to be desired, you can spout off Minor League numbers all you want, but he was swinging at literally everything in the Majors last year (And Half of his Hits were off of Drag Bunts). What he needs is a place where a team will be patient and let him develop those tools. I question weather or not he would be better suited for AAA right now, but it doesn't seem like he'll get the chance.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, mostly

I think Martinez can be an awesome offensive talent. But his defense is what concerns me. I'm going on scouting reports here. But if he projects as a corner outfielder or first baseman, he has a lot less value than if he projects as a center fielder. And every scouting report I have read on his defense says he's a corner outfielder at best.

Gomez obviously projects as a center fielder. So, though his offense is not up to Martinez's level, I think he has more overall value. And he has more overall value to the Twins, especially, as a right handed top-of-the-order bat on a team with five young middle-of-the-order bats, three of which are corner outfielders and three of which are left handed.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

We've known for years that Martinez will be unable to stay in Center Field, he just doesn't have the proper tools for it. For some reason the Mets insist on playing him there though, I think it's because they want him to work on getting good jumps on the ball and covering as much ground as possible, who knows though. But a person who projects to hit as much as Martinez does is an extremely valueable quantity no matter where he plays in the Field. We're talking a bat with Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera type upside.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upside

Yes, this is why the Twins held out until Santana's deadline in their demands for him. My comments were more about managing risk. If you're trading the best Twins pitcher since Bert Blyleven, you better get more than upside in the deal. You better get some actual value for this year and beyond. So if you have to choose between them, you choose Gomez in this deal, even though he doesn't have as much upside as Martinez overall.

One note on upside. I don't like to compare an 18 year old to any current or former All-Star or MVP, you do both the player and the fans a disservice. That's an awful lot to put on an 18 year old. With those comps, he has little chance of more than ho-hum success against expectations. I prefer to say his upside compares to Matsui and his downside compares to Teahan. Giving a range of possibilities allows him to exceed expectations and takes some pressure off of him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Fair enough about the lofty expectations, but we in New York have a bad habit of doing that ;)

And I really don't see much difference between Gomez and Martinez floor wise. While Gomez figures to have some value regardless because of his Speed and Defense, he hit at about a Joey Gathright level last season and unless he significantly improves there (Which we all think he will, but we're talking about absolute floor here) he'll be using his speed and defense on your AAA team. With all of the Former Mets prospects (Martinez, Gomez, Guerra) we were talking about a bunch of guys without a ton of production but a ton of upside, where the sky is the limit.

BTW, I am a huge Guerra fan. Frame that projects to being able to throw 93-95, devastating changeup (Yes, potentially in that Santana, Hamels group). Granted, he's only 18 and he needs alot of work on his secondary stuff, but I think he's the most likely to be a Superstar in the package you got.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Floor

Well, that's the thing about getting speed and defense. It's already there. So his floor is pretty high just because of his position and his projected position in the line-up. I'd rather have Gaithright (Gomez's floor) than Teahan (Martinez's floor), personally. And I'd rather have Crawford (Gomez's upside) than Matsui (Martinez's upside, IMO), especially on this team, as I've explained before.

Plus there's the timing issue. Gomez will be the everyday center fielder sometime this year. Martinez would not crack the major league team until 2009 at the earliest. Anyway, I'm pretty sure Smith insisted on Gomez and requested Martinez as well. But if it was between the two, he had to take Gomez.

And I agree on Guerra. He reminds me of a young Zumaya (there I go getting swept away in Mets hype). He could be the closer of the future, and a good set-up man in a couple of years.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

You're underestimating Teahan, Long-Term I think he'll be more of the 2006 hitter who hit 18 HR and slugged .500 and I'd much rather have that guy then Joey Gathright.
I personally believe Martinez's upside far surpasses Matsui....Manny Ramirez is more like it.
I think it'd be a mistake to put Guerra in the Pen. Sure, he has the stuff for it, but it'd be as much misusing his skills as it was to have Liriano in there in 06.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually agree there...

that Teahan is more 2006 than 2007.

Another thing to consider though, MetsFan, is that the Twins have zero need for a corner OF/1b/DH for a number of years (probably 5 or so) with Young/Kubel/Cuddyer/Morneau in the fold as 4 of our 5 best hitters, all with star ability (well, Cuddyer maybe not, but close).

So the need is still far greater for a guy like Gomez than Martinez. He couldn't even crack the team unless a trade went down.

by djskilbr on Feb 11, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

With all due respect....

Cuddyer and Kubel look like solid but not great MLers. League Average Types if you will, not that that's a bad thing. A league average pitcher is getting 10 mill a year in Free Agency lately. But, I'd have to think Martinez when he's ready will be more roster worthy then either of them. Maybe I'm underestimating them though. As for Morneau and Young, they're anybody's guess, depends on how you feel Martinez will turn out.
Frankly, I find it kinda humerous you think he wouldn't crack the roster when you have Craig Monroe on there. If put in a pure competition right now, Martinez would probably win and he's only 19 years old. Of course, nobody would do that, but you get my point.
Immediate needs are nice, but when taking in prospects you want the best overall player, period. You figure out a way to make it work afterwards. Worst case is you take Martinez and then have to trade him for a Gomez-type with someone else. The only way you can justify selecting Gomez over Martinez is if you honestly feel Gomez will be the better player, and if that backfires then Pohlad should be requesting Bill Smith's resignation.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just adding on...

I realize that Smith didn't get to chose Gomez over Martinez. But that it was simply a hypothetical situation I was talking about.

by MetsFan on Feb 11, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes...

I feel you are vastly underestimating Kubel and Cuddyer. Cuddyer is an above average RF. And Kubel was a guy who before his knee injury was very much in the same mention as Mauer and Morneau as a hitting prospect. Now that he's fully recovered, we'll see what he can do. I firmly believe, and I know many are with me, that Kubel's team-best .953 second-half OPS last year was a fortelling of things to come for him.

Young is a former #1 overall pick who has every reason to turn out as a 22 year-old now. And Morneau is a league MVP, excellent defensive 1b, who should post many, many .930+ OPS seasons in his future.

Frankly, Martinez will be lucky if he does as well as any of those 4 guys in my mind. He might, but he's a ways away, and all 4 of those guys are very good players.

And yes, I think you do go for need when 2 guys are close, as I view Gomez and Martinez, and 1 guy (Gomez) clearly fits what you need so much more than the other.

by djskilbr on Feb 11, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Cuddyer had a bit of an off year last year. But the year before he was the third best right fielder in the league. I think he'll bounce back and have an above average career, which to me says more than just solid. Your interpretation may vary.

Prior to hurting his knee, Kubel was the best hitting prospect in an organization that included Morneau and Mauer (by the numbers anyway). Think Mauer with Morneau-like power. He has just had a tough time since the injury, and wasn't helped by infrequent playing time. But he really turned a corner last year and hit better than anybody on the team in the second half by a long shot. So I think he's finally back to where he was prior to the injury and I expect a break-out season for him this year (knock wood).

I might trade Cuddyer straight up for Martinez. That would be a tough decision because Cuddyer means so much more to this team than just his offense. But I wouldn't trade Kubel for him for sure.

The biggest thing for the Twins going into this offseason was filling the gaping hole in center left by Hunter. It turns out the closest thing Smith could get to Hunter was to replace his defense with a fast and raw lead-off hitter, and replace his offense with Delmon Young. Martinez doesn't have Gomez's defense. And he doesn't have Young's offense. For me it's a pretty easy choice actually. It's just a lot tougher to develop players at premium positions than corner positions.

The only proviso are players like Manny, who is a DH masquerading as an outfielder. His offense is so good, his defense doesn't matter. But guys like Manny are really rare. You're saying Martinez is a left handed Manny. I guess I don't buy it. Guys like Manny hit everywhere no matter how young they are. Manny never had an OPS below .880. And his career OPS at both the the minor league and the major league levels is over .1000. Martinez has not done that. His highest OPS was .880, and his minor league OPS is .770. He could prove me wrong, but I would put down money that Martinez will never have Manny-type numbers. Manny is a first-ballot HOFer. Isn't it a bit premature to dub an 18 year old with two seasons of pro ball under his belt a future HOFer?

As for Guerra, I won't project him as a starter until he learns a breaking pitch. If he learns a good slider, he could be a number 1 starter some day. If he doesn't, he could be a closer. Either way, he's pretty valuable.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow Dustin

That's like mind meld stuff dude!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2008 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha...

great minds, Cmath, great minds...

Agreed on the Manny comparison. Manny gets thrown around way too much in prospect comparisons. People seem to forget just how much of a historically great hitter Manny really is. He's one of the top 5 or so offensive players of this generation, and that actually may be underrating him some.

by djskilbr on Feb 12, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whiffs

Gomez's minor-league strikeout/walk and strikeout/AB numbers suggest he will not perform up to Ramirez's level.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 7, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They're a shade worse than Ramirez...

...but at a minor league level higher than Ramirez each year:

Gomez 20: 22.6% SO/AB, 3.6 SO/BB
Gomez 21: 16.4% SO/AB, 1.5 SO/BB

Ramirez 20: 17.6% SO/AB, 2.3 SO/BB
Ramirez 21: 13.3% SO/AB, 1.6 SO/BB

I just don't see a tremendous difference there. As 20 year olds, there was a gap (5%, 1.3 SO/BB), but it pretty much closed as 21 year olds when Gomez was playing at AAA and Ramirez at AA.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see progress

I know it's a small sample size, but his AAA numbers are not half bad from a plate discipline perspective, especially for a 21 year old. So I stand by my statement that he's a good Ramirez comp.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wishin' and hoping won't do it

>>..but at a minor league level higher than Ramirez each year:

Gomez 20: 22.6% SO/AB, 3.6 SO/BB
Gomez 21: 16.4% SO/AB, 1.5 SO/BB

Gomez had 155 PAs at AAA. That's not enough to make any judgment. You can toss out those.

As a 20-year-old in the AA Eastern League, Gomez struck out once every 4.7 ABs. As a 21-year-old in the Eastern League, Ramirez struck out once every 8.12 ABs.

That's a big difference, regardless of age.

Gomez went from Class A and striking out every 5.9 ABs to AA and a whiff every 4.7 in AA. His SO/BB ration also worsened.

Gomez is looking just a little this side of Jacque Jones right now.

>>I know it's a small sample size, but his AAA numbers are not half bad from a plate discipline perspective, especially for a 21 year old.

The board probably has not seen those numbers, so perhaps you can share the average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player in regard to both SO/AB and SO/BB.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 8, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If so

Gomez had 155 PAs at AAA. That's not enough to make any judgment. You can toss out those.

If you toss those out, you can't make a judgment positive or negative. So don't make a judgment.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 9, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Waiting for those AAA numbers, Mathewson

MARBERRY, PREVIOUSLY: Gomez had 155 PAs at AAA. That's not enough to make any judgment. You can toss out those.

MATHEWSON PREVIOUSLY: If you toss those out, you can't make a judgment positive or negative. So don't make a judgment.

THE RESPONSE:

Positive or negative? The point of using numbers is to make judgments of baseball players objectively. If the numbers are not good, it's not a negative, it's a judgment based on calculations. If they are good, it's not a positive, it's a judgment based on calculations.
If you note, I was wise enough to avoid the AAA numbers and use his A and AA numbers, which reflect a full season of PAs. It is you and the folks who are doing the wishful thinking on Gomez who are grasping at his AAA numbers in hopes that they suggest a trend toward fewer strikeouts.

MATHEWSON, PREVIOUSLY: I know it's a small sample size, but his AAA numbers are not half bad from a plate discipline perspective, especially for a 21 year old.

MARBERRY, PREVIOUSLY: The board probably has not seen those numbers, so perhaps you can share the average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player in regard to both SO/AB and SO/BB.

THE RESPONSE:

You still have not answered that. If you are going to make a comment about "average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player" then certainly you have those numbers.

You have been asked to provide them. If you have them, post them. If you don't have them, tell us that you have no idea and that you can't support your comment.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 9, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

First of all, it's a bit unfair to throw out numbers for his 21-year old season just because A. He only spent six weeks in AAA and B. He did pretty well in the majors in the one full month there prior to breaking his hamate bone and being basically done for the year. So I'm not willing to throw them out, you are.

It's actually a typical tactic for you: Throw out time frame X and this guy sucks. Ya know, throw out June 2006 to August 2007, and Morneau hit worse than Mientkievicz. Thus Mint was a better overall first baseman. It's a flawed argument. And it's more flawed in this case when you place more emphasis on what this kid did as a 19 year old than what he did last year. All things considered, I'd rather focus on what he's done recently. And the younger the kid, the more important recent performance is.

Where was I? Oh yeah, you were asking for numbers readily available on several sites. Here they are:

PA:157 AB:140 H:40 2B:8 3B:2 HR:2 BB:15 SO:23 .286/.363/.414/.777

Projecting that out to 500 PAs, you get 47 BB and 73 Ks. It's not bad for a 21 year old at AAA.

And to repeat what I have written in the past, his one full month of playing every day in the majors, he put up these numbers: .299/.351/.403/.754

So for his last three healthy months as a 21 year old, he did pretty well, especially when he factor in his speed and defense.

The other analysis I have given a bunch of times here is to compare his 20 year old AA season to Trevor Plouffe's 21 year old AA season. I won't rehash it. But suffice it to say Gomez was much better than the top position player prospect on this board a year younger.

His A+ season (19) was raw. His AA season (20) was well above average for his league. His AAA and MLB season (21) were very promising until he got hurt. That is progress. If you fail to see that, it's your choice.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 9, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still waiting

>>It's actually a typical tactic for you: Throw out time frame X and this guy sucks.

First of all, it would not be a tactic. It would be a strategy.

Second of all, you still have not answered this:

The board probably has not seen those numbers, so perhaps you can share the average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player in regard to both SO/AB and SO/BB.

Why haven't you responded?

If we're going to discuss what is typical, refusing to support your comments is a typical strategy for you, as is attacking the person who questions your basis for an opinion.

Boy, a guy politely asks this:
The board probably has not seen those numbers, so perhaps you can share the average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player in regard to both SO/AB and SO/BB.

And you first tell me not to make a judgment (you made one based on AAA strikeout stats for 21-year-olds), and then you resort to this: "It's actually a typical tactic for you: Throw out time frame X and this guy sucks."

Of course, as with so many of your defensive posts (people who can not support arguments get defensive when challenged), what you claim in your attack is not true, it's just an obvious effort to deflect attention for the fact you have no strikeout stats for 21-year-old AAA players.

Oh. I never liked Mientkiewicz.

But that's not the topic of your next post, this is:

You still haven't told us the average AAA 21-year-old's strikeout stats.

Do you have them or not? This is simple. Check one:

Yes.
No.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 9, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

TROLL!

that is all.

by djskilbr on Feb 9, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

TT, er Firpo..

You are asking for something that no stat factory or scouting service gathers. And you know this. That's why you're asking for it. Because your real goal is not to prove a point, it's to make me look bad. I won't play your stupid troll game, Firpo. To quote Monte Python and the Holy Grail, "What's your favorite color?"

You can go along making me the topic and avoiding the point that Carlos Gomez had a pretty decent year last year for a 21 year old between AAA and the MLB. I'll let the readers decide which writer is more reasonable.

I admit that there are no stats that give what the average 21's K/BB ratio is. So what? I never said Gomez was above average. I said he was "pretty decent" and "not bad". Both terms are not defined by some average of the few outfielders who actually make it to AAA at age 21.

Instead of meeting your unreasonable demands, I'll provide some comps. Here are three recent 21-year old outfielders in AAA, with their respective K and BB numbers. All three were recently traded, which gives the reader a sense of significance beyond some average of small samples.

Lastings Milledge: PA: 367 BB:42 SO:67 BB%:11.7% K%:18.3%
Adam Jones: PA:416 BB:27 BB 78 SO BB%:6.7% K%: 18.8%
Carlos Gomez: PA:157 BB:15 SO:23 BB%:9.6% K%:14.6%

This also puts Firpo's dismissal of Gomez based soly on plate discipline in context. Few GMs make trades based solely on BB/K numbers. The above group is a demonstration why. I'll wager most readers consider Gomez as the third-best player on this list. And, based on their offensive numbers, they would be right.

Controversial as it may seem, I'll take Gomez ahead of the other two. Milledge is a better overall hitter. Jones has more power. But only Gomez has gold-glove caliber defense. Considering what the Twins need for the foreseeable future, Gomez fits the bill better than the other two IMHO.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good comps

Although from what I hear, Jones is a beast in teh field and has a stronger arm than Gomez. Apparently had a 93 MPH fastball at one point, don't know if he's ever pitched professionally.

I'd take Jones, then Gomez, then Millege for the long term. In fact, I'd love to see us put together a package to the O's to snag Jones. However, that would mean us giving up Gomez, or having to move Cuddyer from a crowded OF...

by Adam Peterson on Feb 10, 2008 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I had the exact same thoughts, Adam.

by djskilbr on Feb 10, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boy, what an ego

>> You are asking for something that no stat factory or scouting service gathers. That's why you're asking for it. Because your real goal is not to prove a point, it's to make me look bad.

So this is your way of saying you based an assessment on non-existent data?

Why did you do that, and then why did you grow churlish when someone called you on it?

Man, what an ego. You make a statement based on something you know doesn't exist and get pissy when someone asks you to support your statement?

Maybe you should quit spending all that money on subscriber-supported baseball sites and then turning around and echoing those thoughts here as if they were your own and come up with your own stuff. At least if you did your own homework you'd be able to defend it.

Looking bad? Yeah, you look bad. But you make yourself look bad.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 10, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Five minutes

>>You are asking for something that no stat factory or scouting service gathers.

Which, of course, means those numbers are too complicated and time-consuming to obtain. I guess that's what a lazy man would say.

It took me exactly 5 minutes to calculate that data based on a quick visit to a single Web site.

Once again, do you own homework. And get over worrying about "looking bad" to the majority of people.

This isn't an election. The majority doesn't rule. The majority is usually wrong.

Go ask 10 people who was the first man to cross the Atlantic in an airplane and I bet all 10 get it wrong, which suggests if 10 of 10 people agree on something it's always a good idea to go back and ask yourself if perhaps they're not all wrong.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 10, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Impossible

You took all the data on all the 21 year olds in AAA history and averaged their SO/BB and SO/PA numbers?

Those numbers don't exist. If they did, I suspect you would publish them here. If it's so easy for you to do, why didn't you do it for the whole list and save your flames for some other board? Because that wasn't your aim. You don't want to enlighten this group. You just want to taunt me.

Taunt all you want. I'm done feeding you troll food.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Impossible? You based a claim on them.

MATHEWSON: I know it's a small sample size, but his AAA numbers are not half bad from a plate discipline perspective, especially for a 21 year old.

MARBERRY: The board probably has not seen those numbers, so perhaps you can share the average numbers for a 21-year-old AAA player in regard to both SO/AB and SO/BB.

MATHEWSON (eventually): You took all the data on all the 21 year olds in AAA history and averaged their SO/BB and SO/PA numbers? Those numbers don't exist.

MARBERRY (now): One again, if that's the case, why did you say Gomez's "AAA numbers are not half bad from a plate discipline perspective, especially for a 21-year-old" if in fact those stats don't exist?

If you say they don't exist, then you can't possibly know them. And if you can't possibly know them, how can you use them as a basis for making a claim about a player?

What's really funny is some player you didn't give a rip about 4 weeks ago is suddenly a player you're looking to prop up with phantom stats, simply because now he happens to be a Twin.

Start being objective, and quit playing the victim. Let the stats tell the story, don't pick and choose them. Or in this case, don't try to make your case based on stats that you can't produce.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 10, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just stop

You're not from around here, are ya?

If you knew your "How to talk Minnesotan", you would know that "not half bad," does not mean "average". It's not a relative evaluation. It was not intended as part of some numerical analysis. It just means, IN MY OPINION, he did OK. At other times, I've said it was "not bad", "pretty decent". These are just opinions that are not subject to numerical analysis. I even write IMHO after a lot of them. Why on earth do you have a problem with me expressing my humble opinion?

Ya know, blogs are places where people express their opinions. You are free to express your opinion about whatever you like relevant to the Twins, with or without numerical analysis. But keep it on topic. I'm not the topic. My ego is not the topic. This is not the cmathewson blog. It's a Twins blog.

And just a reminder. I have administrative privileges. Jesse does not like to ban anyone. And I respect that. If it were up to me, you would have been banned a long time ago. But this time it's seriously dragging down the blog. Just stop trolling and start acting like a member of the community.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 11, 2008 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pathetic display

>>And just a reminder. I have administrative privileges. Jesse does not like to ban anyone.

Don't ever threaten to ban anyone on this board because you make a statement you refuse to support.

Because you are so defensive and so afraid of "looking bad" you've taken a polite request to ask you to support a statement and turned it into a pathetic threat.

And do us all a favor and try to make it to the All-Star break without your gratuitous bitching about Gardenhire. We all know Gardrenhire managed at the minor league level, played at the minor league level, coached and managed at the major league level.

He knows more baseball than you ever will.

"Man, the past is a long and twisty road." -- Satchel Paige.

by Firpo Marberry on Feb 11, 2008 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pissed I'm even getting involved

There was nothing polite about request. There could have been a polite way to ask if he had that data, but you didn't find it.

Secondly, while Cmath's responses (at least initially) did, in fact include statistical comparison, none of yours did. Your responses were solely fight picking, while he was trying to make some sort of analysis.

Lastly, blogs are for opinions. Discussions start as follows: people state their opinions, people agree / disagree, and people suggest their reasoning. I'm pretty comfortable with that. If you'd like to disagree, feel free to make counterpoints. That's what I'm reading for. I have learned on this site that Gomez had injury problems last year which (coincidentally or not) separated his good numbers from his bad numbers. This does not make him Ted Williams, but it does help me how his numbers should be interpreted. If you do not feel that his mediocre performance at A and AA, strong performance in a limited appearance at AAA and MLB, followed by poor performance at MLB indicate that he will be a good player, that is a valid opinion, and one I am interested in hearing. So please suggest why, and feel free to defend your position.

We are hear to propose/attack baseball arguments, no people.

by snolls on Feb 11, 2008 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya, you know...

because CMath is the only one of us on this site that rips Gardy....

(please note STRONG sarcasm)

Get off your damn high horse you troll.

by djskilbr on Feb 11, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Does this...

...topic have to end when the comments reach the minimum width of 5 millemeters? And I for one appreciate CMath's bitching about Gardy, even if well before the all-star break!

by roger on Feb 11, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

I think we should have a run off between the number one and two spots. Number one has a lead, but there are about 30 percent of people who think he should be even lower, so...

I think the run offs for this should have been like European elections. If no one "candidate" gets 50% of the vote, then you take the two with the most votes and re-vote.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 7, 2008 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Have to go Gomez...

He's much, much closer with a great upside, as has been said.

To me, it's a simple question of this; would I trade Gomez for Guerra 1 for 1 right now? And my answer for that is a resounding no. As such, Gomez is my top prospect.

I echo the sentiments about your optimism for him, CMath. Good stuff, and I myself am very high on him now as well.

Can't wait to see this kid prove our trade critics wrong.

by djskilbr on Feb 7, 2008 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs