The Red Sox announced today that ticket prices for 2009 would be frozen at their 2008 levels. According to the press release, this is the first time in 14 years that ticket prices have not been raised. From the article:

"John Henry, Tom Werner, and our ownership always try to look at our business through the prism of the Red Sox fans who have stepped up to higher prices each year for several years," said Lucchino. "We are taking this step to arrest the growth of season ticket and individual game ticket prices to ensure the great and distinctive Fenway Park experience is a viable option in 2009 for as many citizens of Red Sox Nation as possible."

I think someone realized that both attendance and revenues would decline (and there would be a PR backlash) if ticket prices rose in the midst of a serious recession.

According to Sports Illustrated and other sources, the Oakland Athletics (!) traded for Matt Holliday today. The players going to Colorado are not yet known.

This is huge news, and very surprising to me. Presumably Billy Beane means to sign him long-term, because otherwise all the A's will be holding come 2010 will be a couple of draft picks. Holliday should cost nearly $20 million per year, and is undoubtedly looking for a LONG deal. More info as it comes in.

IF Holliday is locked up, it deprives the Red Sox and Yankees (and Angels, and everyone else) of a young power hitter who plays good defense. It also affects how much Jason Bay will get in an extension from Boston, or on the open market if we can't resign him.

According to Alex Speier's blog on WEEI.com, Jason Bay is interested in discussing a contract extension with the Red Sox. At present he is due to hit the free agent market in the 2009 offseason (along with Matt Holliday). From the blog:

“It’s a situation where he’s loving Boston. It’s a great club and a great organization,” said Nez Balelo of Creative Artists Agency. “He’s a quality player, and I’m sure (the Red Sox) recognize that. Whatever they want to do, I’m sure that we’re all ears.”

I think it's worth talking. Bay has proven he can hit in Boston, and in the playoffs. Overall, he hit .286 / .373 / .522 with 31 HR between Boston and Pittsburgh. His .302 Equivalent Average was fourth best on the team, behind Drew (.314), Youk (.313) and Manny (.310).

The only knock on him is defense: an .821 RZR in his limited time in Boston. His arm isn't great, and he doesn't have great range (or plays balls too tentatively). Some of that may be unfamiliarity with the Green Monster.

Contract talks would probably start around $16 million a year for 5+ years. What say you, OTMers? Deal or no deal?

via www.voanews.com

November 4th, 2008, perhaps the most historic day in U.S. History. Today, the hopes and dreams of millions of Red Sox fans were realized, when Most Valuable Player (MVP) candidate Dustin Pedroia was selected as MVP in the Internet Baseball Awards. The results were called by Baseball Prospectus around 10am on Tuesday.

From Tallahasee to Portland (both coasts), 1,400 voters fired up their high-speed internet connections, told their mothers not to disturb them, and placed their votes. When the dust had settled, one man was Dustin the competition. Pedroia made history by being only the second player to win IBA MVP the year after he was rookie of the year. The first was former Red Sox Nomar Garciaparra.

The contest was fierce, especially in battleground basements, but in the end, Pedroia's superior organization and fundraising proved pivotal. Curt Schilling's prominence on EverQuest was cited by analysts as a critical factor. Advocacy by non-partisan sources may have also played a role. Pedroia was second in first-place votes to Joe Mauer(408 to 423), but he gained a clear majority in second place votes (319-240). Overall, Pedroia won by 12,963 points to Mauer's 11,416. Grady Sizemore placed third with 7,871 points.

Other Red Sox players were also in voters' consideration, both for MVP and for other awards. Kevin Youkilis placed sixth in the MVP race (6391 points). Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka were third and fifth, respectively, in the Cy Young race. Among rookies, Jacoby Ellsbury was fifth for the Rookie of the Year award. And Terry Francona was third in Manager of the Year award voting.

Congratulations to all the Sox players nominated, to Dustin Pedroia and to the other winners, and to all the brave people who voted in the IBA elections.

via media.philly.com

I'm noticing a pattern in World Series victories.

2003 Yankees vs. Florida Marlins - Marlins win (NL)
2004 Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Red Sox win (AL)
2005 White Sox vs. Houston Astros - White Sox win (AL)
2006 Detroit Tigers vs. Cardinals - Cardinals win (NL)
2007 Red Sox vs. Colorado Guys blessed by god Rockies - Red Sox win (AL)
2008 Rays vs. Phillies - Phillies win (NL)

Do you see it? Look closely. Give it a minute. Squinch your eyes up, and look for the sailboat, I mean pattern. Have you found it?

Alright here goes. When the American League is represented by Sox, White or Red, it wins. When the American League is represented by someone else, the National League team is victorious.

Given this conclusive and indisputable evidence, an immediate solution presents itself: the rest of the league should collude to ensure that a Sox team makes the World Series. To do otherwise is to allow the dreaded prospect of National League Victory. And that, frankly, is un-American. Or at least, un-American League.

To be serious for two sentences, Congratulations to the Phillies and their fans! Your team played well and knocked off a tough foe. Granted, that the clock struck midnight and B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria all turned into pumpkins undoubtedly helped (a combined 8 for 57 in the series, with 1 extra-base hit). Such things happen to Cinderella teams, though.

via digitalderek.typepad.com

The Hank Aaron award recognizes offensive contribution and is decided by fan vote. See here.  Kevin batted .312 / .390 / .569 with 29 homers. He was 6th in league BA and OBP, 3rd in SLG, and 4th in OPS. He was 3rd on the team in Value over Replacement Player with 55.8, behind only Pedroia (62.3) and Jon Lester (58.2), and 2nd in Equivalent Average (.313), behind only J. D. Drew (.314). In the NL, Cubs' third baseman Aramis Ramirez won the award.

Congrats Youk! You deserve it. And I would be remiss in my duties if I didn't add this: How do you like that, Mel?

Let me preface this by saying it's wild rumor and speculation. But on the off chance that there's a scintilla of truth to it, I'll link to the story:

The Dodgers have offered Manny Ramirez a two-year deal worth $60 million to remain in Los Angeles.

But are the Dodgers serious about having Ramirez return or mollifying their fans?

According to a person familiar with the Dodgers' thinking, the offer was designed to appease the team's fan base rather than actually retain Ramirez, who saved the Dodgers' season with two sizzling months in which he batted .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 games and continued to mash in the postseason, batting .520 with four homers and 10 RBIs in eight games.

If I were Manny, I'd go for it. [Aside: the presence of the word "mollifying" in the New York Post is anything but soothing. Somehow, an English major has found his way into that esteemed sports section. I can only hope the native savages will honor and worship him as a god rather than devouring him in their ignorant rage.]

Welcome to part 1 of my comprehensive look at the offseason. Today we begin with the starting rotation. Warning: you may want to ready a torch and pitchfork as you read my suggestions.

2008 Analysis

The 2008 Red Sox were the best strike-out team in the league (counting the 'pen), and had the 4th best team ERA. Here's the statistical breakdown:

Jon Lester: 210.1 innings, 66 BB, 152 K, 14 HR, 3.21 ERA, 3.72 FIP*
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 167.2 innings, 94 BB, 154 K, 12 HR, 2.90 ERA, 4.11 FIP
Josh Beckett: 174.1 innings, 34 BB, 172 K, 18 HR, 4.03 ERA, 3.32 FIP
Tim Wakefield: 181 innings, 60 BB, 117 K, 25 HR, 4.13 ERA, 4.94 FIP
Clay Buchholz: Link [Warning: OTM is not responsible for Buchholz-related injury to your computer or yourself.]
Justin Masterson (starting): 54 innings, 28 BB, 39 K, 8 HR, 3.67 ERA

Paul Byrd and Bartolo Colon were about league average. Every minor league call up other than Michael Bowden was awful.

Projection

This is highly speculative, but here goes. Lester should regress a little or put up similar numbers. Beckett should improve - his fundamentals were better than his record indicates. Wakefield should decline, both from age and regression to the mean - his FIP (4.94) was high compared to his ERA (4.13). Buchholz should get slightly better, since his stuff is great and it would be hard to pitch worse than he did. Matsuzaka is the biggest question mark, but I'll be pessimistic and say that he won't have such ridiculous luck with runners in scoring position. [With RISP, batters hit .164 / .288 / .288 against Dice-K.]

All told, I would expect slightly worse overall performances from the squad, as Wake, Lester, and Dice-K regress, while Beckett and Clay get only a little better.

My Plan for Success

1. Sign A. J. Burnett.

via media3.washingtonpost.com

This guy is a really good pitcher. Don't let his ERA fool you - he led the league in strikeouts (231 in 221.1 innings), and dominated good teams like the Sox and Yankees. Burnett has sublime career numbers in Fenway (0.40 ERA in 22.2 innings) and against the Yankees (2.43 ERA in 77.2 innings). I'd go up to 5 years and $16-18 million. He's a great #2 pitcher, and a potential ace.

2. Make Michael Bowden or Clay Buchholz the 5th starter.

The Red Sox really need to develop Clay at the major league level, and this may require some further suffering on our parts. The same thing happened with Lester. If Clay's struggles seriously impact the team, send him down and bring up Bowden.

3. Decline Tim Wakefield's $4 million option.

See, I told you to prepare the torches and pitchforks. Wakefield has given us good performances for many years, and, as a league-average starter at $4 million, he is a bargain. Besides that, he's a class act and a great guy.

That said, Wake's value declines when he's the 4th starter on the team. With a good Rays team and desperate New York to compete with, we need all the advantage we can get. We could sign a Sabathia or Burnett, and make Wake the 5th starter, but that blocks Buchholz/Bowden, who really need major-league innings. Those young pitchers are both paid the major league minimum, and they have higher ceilings than Wake.

Another factor is that Wake is an abomination in the playoffs. Since 2003, he has a 9.89 ERA in the postseason (23.2 innings). I'd rather have him off the team than losing us games in the postseason.

Conclusion

Swapping Burnett for Wakefield gives us a rotation that can compete with the Rays. It also gives us a power-pitcher who should perform better in the playoffs and who has good career #s at Fenway and against the Yankees. Bowden / Buchholz get some development time in the majors.

Enough of my plans though. What rotation do you want to see next year? Answer the poll and comment below to share your thoughts.

*FIP, aka. Fielding Independent Percentage, is a measure of pitching performance that tries to take defense out of the picture.

Rob Bradford, one of my favorite Red Sox baseball writers, has a story on WEEI.com about Beckett's injury and how he gutted through Game 6. It's well worth a read. A sample:

When Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein describes Beckett’s five-inning performance in Game 6 as “borderline heroic” it is with good reason.

Beyond the fact that he had to adjust his game to the point of throwing nearly 40 percent off-speed pitches because of the ailment, there was the immense obstacle that the pain presented.

Even with the assistance of pain-relieving medication following the ALCS win, Beckett still struggled to put his shirt on just before getting exiting the Tropicana Field visitors’ clubhouse.

Beckett's start is all the more impressive considering this, although it might've been wiser to just rest him. Winning in the playoffs is important, but not to the point that it destroys young talented pitchers.