-P- The Cubs have re-signed Ryan Dempster  for four years and $52 million, which seems like quite a lot to give someone who was having a perfectly mediocre career until this year.

It beats $48 million for Carlos Silva, I suppose. Dempster was thoroughly good in 2008--his excellent ERA wasn't entirely the result of a fluky BABIP, or anything like that (although he did strand a few more runners than you might expect). He may experience a late-career peak much as Kelvim Escobar did after switching back from relieving to starting. But I wouldn't bet on it.

-P- The Yankees have signed Sergio Mitre to a minor league deal with a team option for 2010. That sounds excessive for a pitcher who's rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and was never that dominant to begin with, but Mitre pitched admirably in 2007 in front an atrocious Marlins defense. This signing could look pretty nifty for the Yankees in two years.

-P- Finally, in a story that my brother Sam found weird and emailed to me, Ken Griffey Jr. has been named an American Public Diplomacy Envoy. My initial response was, "Envoy to what? The 1990s?" Apparently, though, it's fairly common for athletes to take this position. Other evnoys include Michelle Kwan and Cal Ripken. Also Fran Drescher, who I can't imagine in a diplomatic role, but that's just me. 

And the first to go is reliever Jeremy Affeldt, to San Francisco for two years and $8 million. Leaving aside the question of whether the Giants have any sort of plan, this is a good deal for them. Affeldt used to be a really frustrating young starter with great stuff and debilitating blisters, but now he's just a good reliever. That might not be as exciting, but it's more useful. He had the best season of his career in 2008 as a Red, racking up 80 strikeouts and tons of grounders against 25 walks. He was dominant outside the Reds' homer-happy ballpark. He's not old, so he's a decent bet to put up two very good seasons for the Giants. The Reds, meanwhile, actually had one of the better bullpens in the majors last year; they'll miss Affeldt, but maybe not as much as you might think. Plus, they'll get a compensation pick for him--Affeldt is a Type B free agent.

MLB.com:

The Boston Globe reported on Sunday that Detroit is contemplating a deal with Boston to send either left-hander Nate Robertson or left-hander Dontrelle Willis to Boston for Lugo, but that some money issues would have to be resolved...

The Red Sox might have the same notions about Robertson or Willis bouncing back in 2009. Boston has been known to take chances on reclamation project pitchers, including Bartolo Colon and Wade Miller.

Dealing Lugo would allow the Red Sox to pursue Rafael Furcal or play Jed Lowrie full-time so, depending on money issues, this trade could make a lot of sense for them. In Robertson or Willis, they get to take a chance on a pitcher who's had some success in the past.

For the Tigers, this makes somewhat less sense. Lugo has been awful since being traded from the Devil Rays to the Dodgers in 2006, and he turns 33 today, so he isn't a great bet to rebound.

This is relevant to the Pirates, of course, in that it would prevent Detroit from trading for Jack Wilson. Wilson is a better player than Lugo at this point, but the cost to the Tigers would be steeper--the Pirates would want prospects.

Thanks to Primer.

John Dewan's post on Nate McLouth's Gold Glove is pretty interesting. Dewan begins with the assumption that McLouth was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball last year based on the numbers, then moves to more moderate ground based on factors that some advanced metrics don't do a good job quantifying. McLouth's arm, for example, was pretty valuable last year. Dewan also helpfully points out that McLouth seems to have a problem judging where the wall is on deep fly balls--he lets balls carom off the wall and past him, back toward the infield.

(Thanks to Carnival Matleuse for e-mailing me the link.)

Jayson Stark guesses the Pirates might pursue a player like Paul Byrd this offseason, given Neal Huntington's and Byrd's background with the Cleveland Indians.

That's a pretty good guess; the Pirates want a veteran starter, and Byrd could be the right sort of starter for the front office's needs: not expensive, eats innings, but also not egregiously horrible. Unfortunately, Byrd's not very likely to succeed in Pittsburgh; he relies very strongly on his defense, and the Pirates don't have one. Byrd registered only 82 strikeouts last year, which won't get it done, especially since (unlike Zach Duke, who posted similar K:9 numbers) Byrd doesn't generate a ton of ground balls. Byrd will also be 38 in December.

He might, however, manage the interesting feat of allowing more homers than walks. Carlos Silva did it in 2005 and 2006 and Greg Maddux did it in 2004; those are the most recent examples I can find.

Nick Swisher heads to the Yankees for Wilson Betemit and minor league pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. I've always liked Betemit, but I have no idea what the White Sox are doing here. Marquez struck out 33 batters in 80 innings at AAA this year and isn't a great bet to ever pitch well in the bigs. Nunez, acquired from Washington in a minor deal and, before that, from the Dodgers for Marlon Anderson, is a pretty good relief prospect, but that's it. I've long thought Betemit deserved more playing time than his employers gave him, but he's coming off a season in which he had an 86 OPS+.

Swisher wasn't really any better, posting a 92 OPS+ to go along with his .219 batting average, but he still hit for good power and drew walks. The White Sox are selling low here, which it's usually only wise to do if you think the low are just going to get lower. The Sox must have looked at the $22 million they owed Swisher over the next three years and decided it just wasn't worth it. They may or may not turn out to be right, but I don't feel like $22 million is too high a price for a player of Swisher's upside. I'd worry about his power/walks/no-batting-average skillset if I were his GM too, but I still wouldn't trade him for scraps. The White Sox are big losers here--they're getting a lot less for Swisher than they traded to get him.

-P- The Marlins have traded reliever Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for pitcher Jose Ceda, ESPN reports. Gregg has control issues, but he's reliably pitched plenty of innings in the past few years and, with 61 saves the last two seasons, he's now a Proven Closer (TM). Ceda, traded from the Padres in 2006 for Todd Walker, is an exciting young hurler with a blistering fastball who shut down Class AA last year as a 21-year-old after being moved from the rotation to the bullpen. He could be a dominant reliever. Good trade for the Marlins, but okay for the Cubs, too, even though their farm system just went from bad to worse. Ceda could be ready for the majors relatively soon, but you can't fault the Cubs for wanting someone more reliable in the meantime. 

UPDATE: A Number of bloggers dislike this deal quite a bit from the Cubs' perspective. I understand that, and I suppose my reason for not hating it for them is that I'm increasingly skeptical of relief prospects. Maybe it's because of what seems like dozens of relief prospects (none anywhere near as good as Ceda, true) coming to Pittsburgh and failing the past couple years, or because of the whole Daniel Moskos debacle. Maybe that's not fair of me, but the fact is that most relief prospects have a pretty small margin of error; if they had a broad base of pitching skills, they'd probably be starters.

The blogger linked above suggests that it would have been better for the Cubs to grab a reliever better suited to their ballpark (Gregg has had seasons where he's had extreme fly ball rates, which could cause problems at Wrigley) out of free agency. But in today's market, signing a half-decent reliever has long-term implications, just as dealing Ceda does, in the form of a multiyear contract. If I were the Cubs' GM, I would have kept Ceda. But I can understand their reasons for not wanting to do so.

-P- Pat previews the Pirates' offseason.

-P- Kyle Bloom reminds us why we should keep his performance in Hawaii in perspective:

"Honestly, it's just fastball command," Bloom said. "A lot of these (the hitters) are from Class A ball, so they're pretty aggressive on fastball. So what I usually try to do is initiate the inside part of the plate and then use my off-speed if I fall behind, kind of keep them honest. Mainly, it's just moving my fastball in and out."

Three years, $12 million. The Yankees effectively had a $5.75 million option on Marte for his age-34 season in 2009 that they declined, so this is basically the option plus a two-year, $6.25 million extension. Which isn't bad (and sounds great). But the "extension" doesn't start until 2010, and projecting what a 30-something reliever will be like in two years is a fool's errand.

There's a parallel here: right before the 2006 season started, the Bucs signed Salomon Torres, then 34, to a two-year, $6.5 million contract that started in 2007. When the contract was signed, Torres had for two years been an excellent, rubber-armed setup man. Sure enough, in 2007 he had a terrible season, struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness. The Pirates traded him to the Brewers for scraps, and he probably earned his $6.5 million with the Brewers in 2008, but it wasn't a given that he would do so.

This is probably a good deal for the Yankees, but if I were their general manager I might have just accepted the option. It's hard to know how he'll pitch in 2010 or 2011.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Primer):

The Brewers had a $3.75 million option for 2009 on Torres, which they certainly would have exercised by the Saturday deadline after he emerged as their closer last season. But Torres said he wanted to take that out of Melvin's hands by telling him he was retiring.

"I wanted to make it easy for him," said Torres, 36, reached at home in Pittsburgh. "I already had made up my mind and wanted to tell him this was my last season."

Torres, a deeply religious man, said he wanted to devote more time to his wife and three children as well as his faith.

Torres already retired once, in 1997, and he considered doing it again after the Pirates traded him last offseason, so this isn't much of a shock. If this is it for Torres, 2008 will have been the only really good season of his career that he didn't play for the Pirates. 

Another strange trade. For the Marlins, who get infielders Emilio Bonifacio and Jake Smolinski and pitcher P.J. Dean, this is pretty standard. They trade two guys who are about to get expensive for some young players, and as those things go, they've done pretty well here. Bonifacio has been regarded as an interesting young player for a while, but I've never really understood why; he never hit especially well even in the wacky ballpark in Tucson, and he has no power whatsoever. Smolinski and Dean, though, are more intriguing.

Smolinski is a 19-year-old who held his own in full-season ball this year. He was supposed to be pretty polished for a high school player when he was drafted in 2007, so his solid 2008 season may not be a sign of great things, but he at least stands a pretty good chance of eventually being a decent everyday player.

Dean (not to be confused with T.J. Beam; maybe the Pirates could trade for Dean and try to win games by perplexing the scoreboard operator, thus increasing the chances that they end up with an "8" instead of a "0" some inning or something) is a projectable young pitcher who was very good--though not as good as his 1.57 ERA suggested--in the New York-Penn League this year, until he was shut down with a "tired arm." If Dean's healthy, he could be a good sleeper for prospect-watchers next year.

As for the Nationals, this trade might make some sense if they were in playoff contention, but they're nowhere near it, and Willingham and Olsen aren't the sorts of players you build around. Olsen, in particular, is not very good; last year he combined control issues with 30 taters allowed and an inability to strike hitters out, and in 2007 he was downright terrible. He's only 24, but his attitude problems are well-known, so he may never get better. Putting him in the same clubhouse with Elijah Dukes should be some sort of felony; I pity the other 23 guys who will have to share a locker room with them.

Willingham's perfectly decent, but next year will be his age-30 season, and he had back troubles this year. With the implosion of Austin Kearns in 2008, the Nats should have room for Willingham in left field, but... why? Willingham probably doesn't have more than a couple years left in him, and he's about to get really expensive as the Nats take him to arbitration.

Good trade for the Marlins, although it actually looks worse if they trade Dan Uggla and make Bonifacio their starting second baseman. As for the Nationals, this looks to me like lipstick on a pig.