August 6, 2008

Can you say enough good things about Denard Span right now?  I submit that you cannot.

That was a great game for the Twins, and they needed it.  With the Tigers in Chicago it's imperative that the heat stays on the White Sox.  That's all for me tonight, so leave your reactions below.

Stars of the Game

#3  Brendan Harris  (2-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R)
#2  Nick Blackburn  (6 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 K)
#1  Denard Span  (3-for-5, 3B, 4 RBI, robbed Adrian Beltre of a home run)

Pregame

There's not much to say, other than the first two games of this series have gone nothing like what I thought they would.  A win tonight would be nice before an off day tomorrow, and then three in Kansas City.  Time to get back on the horse!

Seattle's starting Jarrod Washburn tonight:

Jarrod Washburn:  Washburn, clearly, didn't get traded at the deadline.  Poor Yankees!  Still, he's not worth what the Mariners are paying him.  His only saving grace this season is that he's been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 14 bombs in 122.2 innings of work.  But he does get hit hard:  23.1 LD%, .295 opponent average and a few walks which tends to result in about one-and-a-half base runners per inning.  But here's the rub--he's pitched much better the last two months.  Between May 25 and July 27 he made 11 starts, eight of which were quality starts and another two which were just one out away from a quality start.  His ERA dropped in that run from 6.99 to 4.50.  Now, his first August start was forgettable, but it's hard to ignore how effective Washburn has been the second half of his season.  Plus, he's a southpaw.  And we all know what that means.

Looking to salvage one game from this miserable series will be Nick Blackburn.  Nick needs to log exactly six innings to surpass Livan Hernandez as the Twins' leader in innings pitched.  He's fresh off a pair of consecutive seven-inning, one-run starts, giving him five quality starts in his last six (and seven in his last nine).  While he's not a "ground ball pitcher" per say, he does get more grounders than fly balls or line drives, so here's hoping he'll be able to keep the Mariners from putting up crooked numbers.

And once more, from Matthew at Lookout Landing:

Like Perkins above, this is Nick Blackburn's first year in the rotation but he's taken to it better. Again, he throws strikes, 68.6%, and misses around an average number of bats, 7.3%. But Blackburn also has a an average groundball rate, something not usually seen in Minnesota. The whole package comes in at a touch worse than Scott Baker above, but he's more than quality at a 4.43 tRA and at the low cost of basically nothing. The Twins just have a clone farm for these guys.

Pregame

With Livan Hernandez on the verge of heading to Colorado, it will be interesting to see what the Twins get back in return.  I'm not expecting much, but it will be something.  Maybe a pizza.  Godspeed, Rockies fans.  Turn up that humidor.  Or down.  Whatever.  For Seattle, their news today included Jose Vidro getting his papers stamped DFA.

Onto tonight's action...this is from the Mariners' Series Preview:

R.A. Dickey:  I have a friend, we'll call him "bobomojo", who's a big fan of Dickey, and would have liked for the Twins to have kept their paws on him.  He throws a knuckleball about 70% of the time, which is neat, but apart from that he isn't very effective.  Because in spite of the knuckler, he doesn't get a lot of ground balls, and traditionally he's been prone to streaks of missing his spots.  I know, that's normal for a knuckle-ball pitcher, but the problem with Dickey is that he doesn't have anything else to offer.  Still, over his last seven starts five of them have been "quality", so he is riding some success.  Hopefully he won't buck his long-term trends on Tuesday, and he'll walk four if he goes six, and he'll probably allow 8-10 hits and a homer as well.  Patience, as always, is the key!

For the AL Central-leading Twins it's right-hander Scott Baker.  In spite of striking out eight in his last start, it wasn't his finest appearance.  Still, he allowed four runs through six innings for a no-decision, and it was just the third time all year that he'd been charged with more than three runs.  Baker's success this season is due to his control, the highest strikeout rate of his career, and his ability to mix speed and location.  He's become incredibly reliable this season, and has established himself as the guy we all hoped he could be.  Hopefully after the Seattle run-purge last night they're completely out of offense for the series, meaning Baker can re-establish his groove.

Over at Lookout Landing (also, check out their comparison of each team's starters, as well as the picture of Perkinsville from their game recap of last night...good stuff), here's what Matthew had to say about Scotty B.:

Scott Baker is in his third year in the Twins rotation and has seen some improvement and regression from 2007. He has been steadily missing more bats each year and his strikeout rate reflects that, now up to a very healthy 21.4% and he continues to pound the zone, offering up strikes on nearly 70% of his pitches and keeping his walk rate around 5%. His problem has been with the long ball. Never one to keep the ball on hte ground, Baker has been bit this year with more of those many fly balls landing over the fence. Nevertheless, his tRA is settling in the 4.4 range.

It's hard to say what Seattle's lineup will look like tonight sans Vidro, but I'm going with:  Ichiro (RF), Reed (CF), Ibanez (LF), Beltre (3B), Lopez (2B), Cairo (1B), LaHair (DH), Johjima (C), Betancourt (SS)

For the Twins I'll wager the new standard:  Span (RF), Punto (2B), Mauer (C), Morneau (1B), Kubel (DH), Young (LF), Buscher (3B), Harris (SS), Gomez (CF)

They call it:  "Les Suck".

Leading 6-1 with one out in the seventh, the Twins looked in pretty good shape.  It's amazing how quickly things can unravel, and how even one of baseball's worst teams can look like the better team on any given night.  One inning...actually, less than one inning, was all it took for the Seattle Mariners to destroy what Glen Perkins and his offense had built.

When the bases were loaded and Rick Anderson had just sat down after coming out to talk to Perkins, you hoped that (even though Raul Ibanez was at the plate and Adrian Beltre was on deck) Anderson knew what he was doing.  But really, after the grand slam by Ibanez the Twins were still leading 6-5, and if Brian Bass could collect a pair of outs before the Mariners scored again, everything would be okay.

It wasn't.  Oh...how it wasn't.

By the time Matt Guerrier recorded the final out of the seventh inning, the Mariners had put six more on the board, and the Twins had used four pitchers.  A double, a walk, a passed ball and an infield single, all of the bad karma that had been taking a nap woke up at once and slapped the Minnesota pitching staff and defense in the face.  The seventh was a 10-run inning for Seattle, and it had stunned the Twins into silence.

You know how the saying goes?  Sometimes you're the bat...and sometimes you're the ball.

It's easy to heap the scorn on the bullpen, but games like this happen.  That's not excusing the horrible pitches or the lack of concentration, but for one inning last night the Mariners got the better of the Twins, and it all went down at once.

Brian Bass:  9 pitches, 0 innings, 2 hits, 2 runs

Bass doesn't get used often enough to get into a groove.  Last night's appearance was only his sixth since July 13th, which was also the last time he gave up a run--a solo shot in Detroit.  The problem Brian has is that every time he gets into a game, he can't get through it without laboring.  In July he pitched 10.2 innings, but threw 197 pitches...which should be enough to get a starter through 14 innings, much less a relief pitcher.  You can't blame him for not being on top of his game when he doesn't get utilized very often, but on the other hand, when he does get used he's all over the place.  There are long counts and base runners when he is effective, and the opposition just manages to convert those base runners into runs when he isn't.  It's almost like he relies on the hitters to let him off the hook.

Craig Breslow:  10 pitches, 0.1 innings, 1 walk, 1 run

Last night's game was Breslow's seventh since June 30th.  Which is absolutely ridiculous.  These guys sit on a shelf not being used, and then we're supposed to be upset when they come in and can't find the strike zone?  Breslow managed three strikes in his ten pitches, meaning that between him and Bass they threw seven strikes in 19 pitches.  The only difference between Bass and Breslow is that Breslow has usually been effective.  My concern:  if two guys can't find ways to get into the game, why are we keeping that many pitchers?    Starters go five days before taking the hill again, but at least they get to be out there a while and find themselves.  When relief pitchers are four, five, eight days between appearances and are lucky to go a full inning, what kind of results are we expecting?  Personally, I'm giving Breslow a pass for last night, because he's usually done his job.

Matt Guerrier:  19 pitches, 0.1 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs

Guerrier, unlike the two guys above, sees plenty of time.  Maybe more than he needs.  Last night was his fifth appearance in a week and his 54th of the season.  There might be some sign of fatigue showing, as in his last four appearances (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday) he's pitched 3.1 innings, allowing seven hits including a pair of jacks, for a total of six runs.  I believe in Matt as a reliable and effective relief pitcher, but some of his innings might need to be levied onto Craig Breslow.

Boof Bonser:  19 pitches, 1.0 innings, 1 hit, 1 strikeout

Boof pitched a scoreless eighth.  There isn't much more to say about his appearance, other than it was an effective one, and that it was only his seventh appearance since June 28th.

Conclusions

While I can understand carrying seven relief pitchers if you use them all, the Twins aren't managing to do so.  Partially this could be due to over-use of Jesse Crain and the aforementioned Guerrier, but instead of keeping guys fresh it's just keeping them rusty.  The Twins have three relief pitchers currently doing the job of two.

I plan to do a little more research on this, to see exactly how efficient (or inefficient) the Twins have been in their use of bullpen arms, because my conclusions could very well just be conjecture.  Overall I believe Gardenhire's use of his 'pen, as far as when to rely on it, is very solid.  My concern is how it's used, and this goes beyond the tried-and-true use of his closer.

Pregame

From the Mariners' Series Preview:

Miguel Batista:  It's been one of the worst statistical seasons of this 37-year old's career.  The right-hander is usually good for 190 innings, and as things go wasn't a bad number three or four guy for the last seven years.  This year it seems he's lost his command, walking more guys (59) than he's struck out (57).  Yet the Mariners are seemingly in a position where they can't not keep giving him starts.  They've tried him in the bullpen, where he still gets rocked, but with Erik Bedard on the disabled list and even a guy like R.A. Dickey getting run out to pitch every five days, Seattle doesn't seem to have many good options (Carlos Silva, anyone?).  But back to Batista, his scouting report is as follows:  he'll walk you and he'll give up a gopher ball or two if you just wait for your pitch.  Don't force anything, because he'll destroy himself.  Now that I've sufficiently cursed the Twins, I'll move on.

On the mound for the away team is southpaw Glen Perkins, who's coming off of back-to-back sup-par performances.  In New York on July 23rd he was tagged for five runs on eight hits through six, while on the 29th he allowed four runs on seven hits through six.  While Perkins is a pitcher who's going to average more than a hit per inning, he needs to avoid letting offenses string the hits together; the old phrase "a bloob and a blast will kill ya" applies here.  As a fly-ball pitcher and as someone who will pitch higher in the zone, it will be vital for Perk to hit his spots.  Still, in spite of being one of the hardest hit starters in Minnesota's rotation, he's still been effective on the season, and hopefully he can get back on track tonight against a struggling Mariners team and a lineup that doesn't offer much in the way of threats.  One good thing about tonight is that as a southpaw, Perkins will be able to keep a close eye on Ichiro should he reach first base.

Over at Lookout Landing, SBNation's great Mariners blog, Matthew said this about Perk in his preview:

Glen Perkins is one of Minnesota's many young pitchers. He made some appearances in relief the past two years but stepped into the rotation full time this season and has performed at a back end level. He doesn't miss many bats or get many strikeouts, but like all Minnesota pitchers, he throws strikes. If he kept the ball on the ground a bit more he'd approach league average, but as it stands, his tRA sits at 5.09.

For the Mariners, I'd expect this lineup versus Glen Perkins:  Ichiro (RF), Bloomquist (SS), Ibanez (LF), Beltre (3B), Lopez (2B), Vidro (DH), Cairo (1B), Johjima (C), Reed (CF)

For the Twins against a RHP I'll go with:  Span (RF), Punto (2B), Mauer (C), Morneau (1B), Kubel (DH), Young (LF), Buscher (3B), Harris (SS), Gomez (CF)

After a successful home stand in which the Twins (62-49) have taken over sole possession of first place in the AL Central, a road trip that includes stops in Seattle (42-69) and Kansas City (52-60) will be a welcome one.  While the Mariners are just as bad at home (21-34) as they are on the road (21-35), the Twins have been a completely different team away from the Metrodome.  They're 23-28 away from the comforts of home, so with 14-game road stand at the end of the month, this is about as good of a warm up as could be asked for.  To win this division, and to win in October, Minnesota needs to win while they're away.  Picking up four or five wins before they come home a week from today would be a massive boost.

For the Mariners, there isn't much to say.  They're the walking dead, at least as far as 2008 is concerned, but hopefully the Twins aren't looking past them.  Every game is important, particularly right now, and Minnesota needs to come away with a series win.  Also, the Mariners needs pitchers.  So if you can throw 61 feet, I advise you to give them a call.

Probable Pitchers

Glen Perkins VS Miguel Batista
Scott Baker VS R.A. Dickey
Nick Blackburn VS Jarrod Washburn

Opposition Focus

Miguel Batista:  It's been one of the worst statistical seasons of this 37-year old's career.  The right-hander is usually good for 190 innings, and as things go wasn't a bad number three or four guy for the last seven years.  This year it seems he's lost his command, walking more guys (59) than he's struck out (57).  Yet the Mariners are seemingly in a position where they can't not keep giving him starts.  They've tried him in the bullpen, where he still gets rocked, but with Erik Bedard on the disabled list and even a guy like R.A. Dickey getting run out to pitch every five days, Seattle doesn't seem to have many good options (Carlos Silva, anyone?).  But back to Batista, his scouting report is as follows:  he'll walk you and he'll give up a gopher ball or two if you just wait for your pitch.  Don't force anything, because he'll destroy himself.  Now that I've sufficiently cursed the Twins, I'll move on.

R.A. Dickey:  I have a friend, we'll call him "bobomojo", who's a big fan of Dickey, and would have liked for the Twins to have kept their paws on him.  He throws a knuckleball about 70% of the time, which is neat, but apart from that he isn't very effective.  Because in spite of the knuckler, he doesn't get a lot of ground balls, and traditionally he's been prone to streaks of missing his spots.  I know, that's normal for a knuckle-ball pitcher, but the problem with Dickey is that he doesn't have anything else to offer.  Still, over his last seven starts five of them have been "quality", so he is riding some success.  Hopefully he won't buck his long-term trends on Tuesday, and he'll walk four if he goes six, and he'll probably allow 8-10 hits and a homer as well.  Patience, as always, is the key!

Jarrod Washburn:  Washburn, clearly, didn't get traded at the deadline.  Poor Yankees!  Still, he's not worth what the Mariners are paying him.  His only saving grace this season is that he's been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 14 bombs in 122.2 innings of work.  But he does get hit hard:  23.1 LD%, .295 opponent average and a few walks which tends to result in about one-and-a-half base runners per inning.  But here's the rub--he's pitched much better the last two months.  Between May 25 and July 27 he made 11 starts, eight of which were quality starts and another two which were just one out away from a quality start.  His ERA dropped in that run from 6.99 to 4.50.  Now, his first August start was forgettable, but it's hard to ignore how effective Washburn has been the second half of his season.  Plus, he's a southpaw.  And we all know what that means.

Ichiro Suzuki:  One of baseball's most dangerous leadoff hitters, if not one of the most effective, the 34-year old has been the benefactor of a poor offense.  Okay, maybe benefactor isn't the right word...how about "victim".  His strikeout rates are down, his walk rates are up, he's still making a lot of contact and isn't going outside of the strike zone any more often than in the past, his isolated power is still poor but not any lower than last season, and his LD/GB/FB splits aren't showing any major changes.  What's effected him this year is his BABIP, which at .328 is the second lowest mark of his MLB career.  It's kept him off the bases a bit more often, dropping his OBP to .360, which is the third lowest mark of his MLB career.  Another 13 singles would have raised his .303 average to his career mark of .331, and would also raise his OBP and SLG to right around their averages as well.  Another thought: maybe he's lost a step out of the batter's box?  Or he might just be unlucky this season.

Adrian Beltre:  He could have been a Twin, but it just wasn't to be.  He's a good defender and a good supplemental bat, but he's not the guy a lot of us hoped he would be, either.  With a mediocre line of .252/.322/.434 it's hard to say that he'd be an offensive improvement over Brian Buscher, unless they were to have gone into a platoon role...which wouldn't make sense considering Beltre's contract.  He does bat right-handed though, and he does mash LHP (.966 OPS), but for what the Mariners were asking he should have been the complete package.  And he isn't.  Besides, he swings at 32% of all pitches outside the strike zone.  He'd likely have been more frustrating to fans than anything else, because expectations would have been pretty high.

Raul Ibanez:  As the third, and final, position player in this edition of Series Previews, Ibanez also represents the third and final decent bat in the Mariners' lineup.  In many ways the 36-year old is having his finest season in a while.  His strikeout rates are at their lowest since '04, walk rates are at their highest since '05, and he's making better contact overall.  While his line of .281/.347/.464 is actually down from last year, it seems he might be better "tuned in" this year.  He's already notched 32 doubles, and so is on pace to shatter his career best of 37 that he set in 2002 with the Royals.  It's been a tough year for the Mariners, and they might have been better off trading Ibanez (and Washburn) in the long-run, but it's still important to have players on the field who can bring in fans and show them that the team is making an effort to put a competetive product on the field.  Ibanez is a fine player, and any organization would be well suited to have him on their team.

Stats

Because Mondays aren't always what they're cracked up to be.

Each of the following was retrieved from BaseballReference.com.

*  1909 - Umpire Tim Hurst instigates a riot by spitting in the face of Athletics 2B Eddie Collins, who had questioned a call. Under police guard, Hurst is ushered off the field. This incident eventually leads to Hurst's banishment from baseball two weeks later.

*  1948 - Ernie Harwell begins as an announcer for the Dodgers calling a 5 - 4 win over the Cubs. The Dodgers had to trade a player, Cliff Dapper, to the Atlanta Crackers to acquire Harwell. Brooklyn scores a pair in the 1st, one on a steal of home by Jackie Robinson.

*  1960 - Believing that Chicago's Jim Brewer is throwing at him, the Reds 2B Billy Martin throws his bat toward the mound. Then, advancing to retrieve it from Brewer, who has picked it up. The two exchange words and Martin launches a hard overhand right that fractures the orbital bone of Brewer's right eye. Both benches empty and Martin continues swinging, decking Frank Thomas. Brewer requires surgery and will be out of action for a month. The Cubs win, 5 - 3, on Ernie Banks' homer. Martin will be fined $500 for the punch and Brewer and the Cubs will sue the combative infielder on August 22 for $1,000,000. Years later, when the courts award Brewer $100,000, Martin's comment will be, "How can they ever collect it? I haven't got that kind of money,"

*  1963 - In his first at-bat in two months after breaking his left foot, Mickey Mantle slams a pinch-hit home run in the ninth inning to beat the Orioles, 11-10.

*  1967 - John Fetzer, president of the ML television committee, announces a $50 million, 3-year deal with NBC to televise the World Series, All-Star Game, and 28 weekly telecasts.

*  1982 - After driving in the winning run in a Met 7-4 victory over the Cubs, Joel Youngblood is traded and later in the day flies to Philadelphia and singles for the Expos becoming the first player to have a hit for two different teams in the same day in different cities.

*  1983 - While warming up before the 5th inning of the Yankees 3 - 1 win over the Blue Jays game at Toronto's Exhibition Stadium, New York OF Dave Winfield accidentally kills a seagull with a thrown ball. After the game, Winfield is brought to the Ontario Provincial Police station on charges of cruelty to animals and is forced to post a $500 bond before being released. The charges will be dropped the following day.

*  1985 - In a day of milestones, Tom Seaver becomes the 17th pitcher to win 300 games and Rod Carew becomes the 16th player ever to collect 3,000 career hits. Seaver pitches the Chicago White Sox to a 4 - 1 six-hit victory at Yankee Stadium as 54,032 New Yorkers cheer him on. Carew hits a single to left off Frank Viola in the 3rd inning of the California Angels' 6 - 5 win over the Minnesota Twins.

*  1993 - White Sox 3B Robin Ventura charges Nolan Ryan after a pitch hits him in the 3rd inning. Ryan gets Ventura in a headlock and throws six punches. Ventura is suspended two games for his actions, while Ryan is not disciplined.

*  1997 - The Twins beat the Blue Jays, 9 - 3, as Brad Radke ties a team record with his 12th straight win. Greg Colbrunn's pinch-hit grand slam off Chris Carpenter is the big blow. Radke is only the 3rd pitcher since 1950 to win 12 consecutive starts. Bob Gibson of St. Louis did it in 1968 and Pat Dobson did it with Baltimore in 1971.

*  1999 - Prior to a game with the Royals, with his team in the midst of a slump, Angels' batting coach Rod Carew suggests the club use a single bat through the starting lineup as a way of loosening up the players. When leadoff hitter Orlando Palmeiro strikes out in bottom half of the first inning, he drops the bat for the next hitter to use. Umpire Tim Tschida sees this as an act of defiance and ejects Palmeiro from the game. Anaheim manager Terry Collins eventually convinces Tschida that Palmeiro wasn't trying to show him up, and the umpire changes his decision and allows him to stay in the game. The Angels go on to defeat the Royals, 4-3.

My favorite, without a doubt, is Nolan Ryan laying the smack down on Robin Ventura.  Seriously, Robin...what were you thinking?

August 3, 2008

After failing to capitalize on an opportunity to take over the American League Central Division on Saturday night, the Twins were able to take advantage of the thrashing Kansas City leveled upon the Chicago White Sox.  A Brendan Harris home run, an "effetively wild" performance by Francisco Liriano and a pair of triples combined to lift Minnesota over Cleveland.

Liriano's start was a jam sandwich.  He cruised through the first two innings, sitting down all six hitters, two of them on strikes.  His fastball ran mostly from 91 to 93, his slider had some nice break and still registered in the mid to upper 80's, and even the changeup was mixed in.  Then in the sixth he was strong again, recording a pair of quick outs before matching up against Ryan Garko for eight pitches before putting him away.  In between the second and sixth innings was the jam.

It was Francisco's fastball that started really getting away from him, as early as the top of the second, that led to his struggles.  Particularly in the third inning he was unable to hit the spots that Mike Redmond was setting up for him, but all due credit to Redmond, who switched things up and started calling more sliders and off-speed pitches.  65 of Liriano's 96 pitches came in the third, fourth and fifth innings, as he loaded the bases in the third, had runners on first and second in the fourth, and runners on second and third in the fifth.  But the important part is this:  he found a way to get out of it.  A double play, a big strikeout, a key ground ball; it wasn't a great start by Cisco, but the results are what matters.

Liriano went six, giving up just three hits and a trio of walks in addition to five strikeouts.  But he didn't allow a run.

On the offensive side of the ball, Mike Lamb and Nick Punto registered triples, and Denard Span hit a solo shot off of Juan Rincon in the bottom of the 8th inning to put the final run of the game on the board.

For the first time since May, the Minnesota Twins are back in first place.  Baseball is a long and patient game however, so there will be no time to look down at the four other teams in the Central and feel good about it.  There's a lot of baseball to play before it's all said and done, so here's hoping they boys can continue to press the issue and start to wedge some space between themselves and second place.  Chicago is off tomorrow, but the Twins are in Seattle to take on the Mariners.

First place, baby.  Let's hold onto it!