Without any further ado, here is my overall team forecast, a quick comparison with Mr. Lund's projections, and the badness that was the 2005 Minnesota Twins offense.
AVG OBP SLG
ubel-Twins 0.275 0.333 0.423
lund-Twins 0.279 0.343 0.438
'05 Twins 0.259 0.323 0.391
As you can see, my projections are a bit less optimistic than Jesse's predictions, but they are still a drastic improvement upon what was the worst offense in major league baseball in 2005. (I suppose you could say they were the most offensive, but that's a bit confusing now, isn't it?)
Here are the overall counting stats that I get with my projections.
Last First PA AB 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS HBP
Mauer Joe 622 559 114 35 3 15 52 67 9 3 4
Castillo Luis 613 535 132 21 5 1 63 50 13 5 2
Stewart Shannon 578 525 104 28 2 11 41 67 5 3 4
Hunter Torii 576 524 89 30 2 21 41 94 23 9 6
White Rondell 565 522 102 30 2 18 32 81 2 1 6
Morneau Justin 535 481 77 25 2 26 44 89 0 1 6
Ford Lew 520 466 89 28 4 10 40 70 11 4 8
Bartlett Jason 515 458 88 24 4 8 43 70 10 4 7
Cuddyer Mike 512 454 78 25 3 16 48 101 5 3 4
Batista Tony 502 470 75 23 2 16 23 88 4 2 3
Kubel Jason 217 196 37 11 1 7 17 27 3 1 1
Punto Nick 195 175 32 8 2 2 16 35 6 3 1
Redmond Mike 171 158 31 9 0 1 7 18 0 0 3
Castro Juan 150 140 24 8 1 3 6 22 0 0 1
Sierra Ruben 67 62 9 3 0 2 4 14 0 0 0
Jones Garrett 64 59 9 3 0 3 4 14 1 0 0
Team Totals 6402 5784 1091 310 33 160 482 907 91 40 58
The number of games played was determined here, although after that post, jclund's comment got me thinking that Mauer probably wouldn't catch 135 games, but would still play about 135 between catcher and DH. Also, I was convinced that I wasn't quite giving Kubel enough credit, so I upped him to 50 games, though I imagine some will still think that's too low.
Here is the ridiculous table that I made to try to figure out whereabouts people will be batting in the lineup.
Last Pos Games 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Mauer C 120 0 0 120 0 0 0 0 0 0
Redmond C 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0
Morneau 1B 125 0 0 0 0 0 125 0 0 0
Cuddyer 1B 22 0 0 0 0 0 13 9 0 0
Jones 1B 15 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
Castillo 2B 130 0 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Punto 2B 32 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Bartlett SS 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130
Castro SS 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 5
Punto SS 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Batista 3B 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 0
Punto 3B 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Castro 3B 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Cuddyer 3B 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0
Stewart LF 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ford LF 42 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hunter CF 130 0 0 0 50 80 0 0 0 0
Ford CF 32 0 22 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Cuddyer RF 80 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 78 0
Ford RF 32 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0
Kubel RF 50 0 0 0 0 40 0 10 0 0
White DH 125 0 0 27 98 0 0 0 0 0
Sierra DH 15 0 0 0 14 0 0 1 0 0
Ford DH 7 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
Mauer DH 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 1458 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162
(Note: 120 games played just means that I'm predicting that a player will play 120/162 of the innings in the season. I didn't want to bother with distinguishing starting plate appearances from bench plate appearances.)
Using this information, and each player's projected OBP, I calculated the OBP for each spot in the lineup. Then I used the process described here to determine how many plate appearances each spot in the lineup would get over the course of the season, assuming that the Twins bat for nine innings per game on the road and that they bat for nine innings in half of their home games and eight innings for half of their home games. Then, the total stats were created by using the PECOTA forecasts for their rate stats and my estimates for playing time. I like to think that I know more than PECOTA about the Twins, but I'm terribly biased towards the Twins, so I used the PECOTA projections as something of a devil's advocate to keep my hopes tempered.
That said, I'm pretty happy with the way this turned out. It seemed to me that Terry Ryan had a pretty nice offseason, and this would seem to support that feeling. This won't be the top offense in the league, but it should be a pretty big improvement on the one we saw last year. The big questions left for me are 1) how many runs would this offense score and 2) how many more wins can this offense add? I'll be looking to address those questions soon.