FanPost

Ridiculously Premature Offensive Projections for 2006

Without any further ado, here is my overall team forecast, a quick comparison with Mr. Lund's projections, and the badness that was the 2005 Minnesota Twins offense.

                AVG     OBP     SLG
ubel-Twins     0.275   0.333   0.423
lund-Twins     0.279   0.343   0.438
'05 Twins      0.259   0.323   0.391

As you can see, my projections are a bit less optimistic than Jesse's predictions, but they are still a drastic improvement upon what was the worst offense in major league baseball in 2005.  (I suppose you could say they were the most offensive, but that's a bit confusing now, isn't it?)

Here are the overall counting stats that I get with my projections.

Last      First    PA    AB     1B     2B    3B   HR    BB    SO    SB    CS    HBP
Mauer     Joe      622   559    114    35    3    15    52    67     9     3     4
Castillo  Luis     613   535    132    21    5     1    63    50    13     5     2
Stewart   Shannon  578   525    104    28    2    11    41    67     5     3     4
Hunter    Torii    576   524     89    30    2    21    41    94    23     9     6
White     Rondell  565   522    102    30    2    18    32    81     2     1     6
Morneau   Justin   535   481     77    25    2    26    44    89     0     1     6
Ford      Lew      520   466     89    28    4    10    40    70    11     4     8
Bartlett  Jason    515   458     88    24    4     8    43    70    10     4     7
Cuddyer   Mike     512   454     78    25    3    16    48   101     5     3     4
Batista   Tony     502   470     75    23    2    16    23    88     4     2     3
Kubel     Jason    217   196     37    11    1     7    17    27     3     1     1
Punto     Nick     195   175     32     8    2     2    16    35     6     3     1
Redmond   Mike     171   158     31     9    0     1     7    18     0     0     3
Castro    Juan     150   140     24     8    1     3     6    22     0     0     1
Sierra    Ruben     67    62      9     3    0     2     4    14     0     0     0
Jones     Garrett   64    59      9     3    0     3     4    14     1     0     0
Team      Totals  6402  5784   1091   310   33   160   482   907    91    40    58

The number of games played was determined here, although after that post, jclund's comment got me thinking that Mauer probably wouldn't catch 135 games, but would still play about 135 between catcher and DH.  Also, I was convinced that I wasn't quite giving Kubel enough credit, so I upped him to 50 games, though I imagine some will still think that's too low.

Here is the ridiculous table that I made to try to figure out whereabouts people will be batting in the lineup.  

Last     Pos   Games     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9
Mauer     C     120      0     0   120     0     0     0     0     0     0
Redmond   C      42      0     0     0     0     0     0     0    42     0

Morneau  1B     125      0     0     0     0     0   125     0     0     0
Cuddyer  1B      22      0     0     0     0     0    13     9     0     0
Jones    1B      15      0     0     0     0     0    15     0     0     0

Castillo 2B     130      0   130     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
Punto    2B      32      0    10     0     0     0     0     0     0    22

Bartlett SS     130      0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   130
Castro   SS      27      0     0     0     0     0     0     0    22     5
Punto    SS       5      0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     5

Batista  3B     120      0     0     0     0     0     0   120     0     0
Punto    3B      10      0     0     0     0     0     0     0    10     0
Castro   3B      10      0     0     0     0     0     0     0    10     0
Cuddyer  3B      22      0     0     0     0     0     0    22     0     0

Stewart  LF     120    120     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
Ford     LF      42     42     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

Hunter   CF     130      0     0     0    50    80     0     0     0     0
Ford     CF      32      0    22     0     0    10     0     0     0     0

Cuddyer  RF      80      0     0     0     0     0     2     0    78     0
Ford     RF      32      0     0     0     0    32     0     0     0     0
Kubel    RF      50      0     0     0     0    40     0    10     0     0

White    DH     125      0     0    27    98     0     0     0     0     0
Sierra   DH      15      0     0     0    14     0     0     1     0     0
Ford     DH       7      0     0     0     0     0     7     0     0     0
Mauer    DH      15      0     0    15     0     0     0     0     0     0
Totals         1458    162   162   162   162   162   162   162   162   162

(Note: 120 games played just means that I'm predicting that a player will play 120/162 of the innings in the season.  I didn't want to bother with distinguishing starting plate appearances from bench plate appearances.)

Using this information, and each player's projected OBP, I calculated the OBP for each spot in the lineup.  Then I used the process described here to determine how many plate appearances each spot in the lineup would get over the course of the season, assuming that the Twins bat for nine innings per game on the road and that they bat for nine innings in half of their home games and eight innings for half of their home games.  Then, the total stats were created by using the PECOTA forecasts for their rate stats and my estimates for playing time.  I like to think that I know more than PECOTA about the Twins, but I'm terribly biased towards the Twins, so I used the PECOTA projections as something of a devil's advocate to keep my hopes tempered.

That said, I'm pretty happy with the way this turned out.  It seemed to me that Terry Ryan had a pretty nice offseason, and this would seem to support that feeling.  This won't be the top offense in the league, but it should be a pretty big improvement on the one we saw last year.  The big questions left for me are 1) how many runs would this offense score and 2) how many more wins can this offense add?  I'll be looking to address those questions soon.